February 2008

March 2008

April 2008

DPRK Rhetoric Angry -- and Military Maneuvers Increase (Apr 2008) Yonhap News on 1 Apr reported that specialists interpret the DPRK criticisms of the the denuclearization, opening, 3000 policy of Lee Myung-bak as an anti-unification declaration as pressure for manifestation of a firm position of DPRK policies by the ROK government before the policies are connected to specific actions. Also, there are hints of DPRK ' s strategy of isolating the ROK in the six-party talks. There are also voices that support the current administration that claim we must not be anxious for there are inevitable labor pains.

Reuters on 31 Mar reported that the DPRK has sent jet fighters to test the ROK's air defenses and threatened to reduce its wealthy neighbor to ashes as it tries to push the new government in Seoul to back off from its hard line with Pyongyang. "These should be understood as the first actions signaling a freeze in North and South Korean relations ," said Yang Moo-jin, a specialist on the DPRK at the ROK's Kyungnam University. But analysts added that the PRC would lean on the DPRK to prevent the situation on the Korean peninsula spinning out of control.

Joongang Ilbo on 1 Apr reported that the ROK has scrambled jets at least 10 times in the five weeks since President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration because DPRK jets have flown closer than ever to the border, defense sources said. Still, experts say, such saber rattling is nothing new. They have repeatedly occurred at the beginning of past ROK administrations, possibly as a way to test how the new government would respond. Many experts in Seoul called it Pyongyang's classic routine. Provocative actions by Pyongyang have also happened during changes of administrations.

On 2 Apr South Korea urged North Korea to halt its recent verbal attacks against the administration of Lee Myung-bak, one day after the communist nation called the South Korean president a "traitor." The call comes as a reaction to recent hostility by Pyongyang which has threatened to suspend all inter-Korean dialogue, accusing Seoul of preparing preemptive strikes against its nuclear facilities. In a radio message sent to Lt. Gen. Kim Yong-chol, the North's chief representative to inter-Korean military talks, the South's Defense Ministry said the North was intentionally interpreting Seoul's objectives and remarks by its officials in a malicious manner. "Our side has sincerely upheld the non-aggression agreement between the South and the North and this position will not change in the future," Seoul's chief delegate to North-South military dialogue, Maj. Gen. Kwon Oh-sung, said in the message.

The North Korean general on 29 Mar accused South Korea's new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Kim Tae-young, of making remarks that hint at possible preemptive strikes on the North's nuclear facilities and demanded Seoul retract Kim's remarks and apologize. The Defense Ministry refused to apologize and rejected the accusation, saying Kim's remarks, made at his National Assembly confirmation hearing late last month, only described the country's defense manual in case of an armed conflict. "We see it as inappropriate for your side to raise issues based on your own interpretation of remarks by one of our officials, and we deeply regret this," Kwon said in the message to his North Korean counterpart. "We urge you to immediately stop your recent activities, as such intentional slander and fostering of tension do not help ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," he said, adding Seoul is always ready to engage in dialogue with the North. Kim Hyong-ki, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry, however, later said the government has no plans to call for military talks in the near future. "Dialogue will be possible when the atmosphere is right for both sides," he told reporters.

The North's official newspaper Rodong Sinmun on 1 Apr lashed out at Lee in the first direct offensive against a South Korean president in eight years. "His call on 'the North to dismantle its nukes first' is nothing but a declaration of confrontation and a war declaration," the newspaper said in a report carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency. The 2 Apr radio message only addressed the claims by the North's chief delegate to military talks, but the Defense Ministry spokesman said the message was drawn up while considering all the other hostility from the communist nation, including the one directed at President Lee. "You can say the military or the Defense Ministry is acting as the key coordinator among related offices because the North's official message came through the channel used for general-level military talks between South and North Korea," the spokesman said.

North Korea on 3 Apr said it will suspend all dialogue with South Korea and close the inter-Korean border to South Korean officials in retaliation for what it called Seoul's hostility, officials said. The latest threat came in a telephone message addressed to Seoul's chief delegate to inter-Korean military talks, Maj. Gen. Kwon Oh-sung, in response to Seoul's call made Wednesday for Pyongyang to halt its hostile rhetoric and actions.

On 3 Apr, North Korea issued warnings that it will take countermeasures to respond to "repeated incursions" of its territorial waters by South Korean warships. The warning, issued by the Navy and carried by the official (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), claimed that "unforetold actions" will be taken if surface combatants continue to operate in North Korean waters. The rhetoric was getting stronger as it appears that the fevered response it used to receive under the Roh adminstration is having no effect. The greatest worry is that the DPRK will initiate a military action along the NLL as the crab season is starting up with boats from both sides operating in the area.

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North cuts food rations to Pyongyang (Apr 2008) North Korea's food shortages are so bad that even its elite citizens in Pyongyang will not get state food rations until September, a local relief group said yesterday. The Seoul-based organization Good Friends said the North has decided to suspend state food rations in the capital city for six months. The Buddhist group, however, did not reveal the source of that information.

Grim predictions are spreading throughout the country that there will be massive deaths from famine in provincial areas starting around May, the group also said. It indicated the decision is unprecedented, quoting some senior Pyongyang officials as saying the food distribution was not even suspended for such a long period of time during the country's worst food crisis in the late 1990s. The group said last month that the North suspended food rations in its main grain belts and reduced them in the capital in recent months due to the worsening food situation.

"The situation is far more hopeless than expected," it said in its weekly newsletter, quoting an unnamed senior official in Pyongyang. After suffering damage from flooding for a couple of years in 2006, the official said, North Korea is now experiencing its "worst-ever" food crisis due partly to a chronic shortage of fertilizer and the authorities' recent seizure of privately cultivated farmland. International aid groups, including the World Food Programme, have appealed for more state donations for North Korea this year, warning of the nation's worst food shortage in years because of last year's severe floods along with a winter drought and soaring international grain prices. North Korea has heavily depended on international aid to feed its 23 million population in recent years. (Source: Joongang Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: Blogs specializing in DPRK affairs are starting to see cracks in the Kim Jong-il power structure as it moved away from the Military First policy -- but then was immediately followed by measures fostered by military hardliners to confront the South after the free giveaways (food, supplies, money) stopped with the entry of Lee Myeong-bak. The concern is that the food shortages are now starting to affect the "elite" who live in Pyongyang -- and the crackdown on corruption has stopped the avenues for making illicit money. These factors are causing some blogs -- more with wishful thinking -- to predict the beginning of the end for the DPRK.)

N.K. asks China for massive rice aid: report (Apr 2008) North Korea recently asked China to provide massive rice aid for its hungry people amid a flare-up in tensions with South Korea, a news report said 4 Apr. Pyongyang has also decided not to request rice and fertilizer aid from South Korea until Seoul moves to improve ties, the report by the vernacular daily Hankyoreh said. It cited a diplomatic source who is well informed about North Korea-China relations and an unnamed South Korean official who recently returned from a trip to Pyongyang. Seoul's Foreign Ministry said it did not hear of such a request.

The report came a day after North Korea threatened to cut off dialogue with South Korea, claiming the peninsula is on the brink of another war. "North Korea has recently requested massive rice aid from China, which means the North has no intent to make a request for rice and fertilizer aid from South Korea for the time being," the report said, quoting the diplomatic source. But Beijing has yet to respond to Pyongyang's request, the report said.

It also quoted the South Korean official as saying that a North Korean official from the Workers' Party Unification Front Department that he met during the trip defiantly said the North has no intention of requesting food and fertilizer aid from the South. The department is the North's top office on inter-Korean affairs.

South Korea is a key aid donor to North Korea, which has depended on outside aid to help feed its 23 million residents. The South has annually shipped 300,000 to 500,000 tons of rice and fertilizer to North Korea in recent years. Seoul plans to send this year's shipment if Pyongyang makes a request. The recent tension began last week when North Korea expelled all South Korean government officials from the joint industrial complex in Kaesong. The move came after South Korea's unification minister said it would be hard to expand the complex without North Korean progress on denuclearization. (Source: Yonhap News.) (SITE NOTE: Kyodo on 23 Apr reported that the PRC, the DPRK's major food and oil supplier, exported 85 percent more cereals and almost three times more crude oil in January-March than a year earlier, PRC customs figures showed Wednesday. The boost in exports comes after the DPRK suffered the worst cereal harvest in recent years in 2007 and continues to face a chronic energy shortage.)

N.K. facing 1.66-Mln-ton Grain Shortage: UN Agency (Apr 2008) Yonhap reported on 24 Apr that a UN relief agency has appealed for more international food aid for the DPRK, saying the impoverished country is 1.66 million tons short of the minimum it needs until this year's fall harvest. "With this low 2007 production, the cereal deficit for the 2007/2008 marketing year (November/October) is estimated at 1.66 million tons," said the report titled "Crop Prospects and Food Situation." The FAO said the country may again have to depend on external aid "as its capacity to import commercially remains limited by poor economic performance and the recent increase in world food prices." "By comparison to early 2007, current prices for both rice and wheat flour have doubled, while maize prices have also risen substantially," it said.

Peacemaking on 20 Apr carried an article by the secretary general of Goodfriends, who wrote that symptoms occurring in different contexts of DPRK society such as the skyrocketing of food prices are not promising. The conflict between the DPRK governments’ attempt to reinforce social restraints through regulation and the people driven to the verge of starvation is growing. Unless a revolutionary change in the international political situation or a change in the DPRK government’s position takes place, the people are expected to face mass starvation due to food shortages. It seems that DPRK citizens’ sacrifice and resistance for survival are inevitable.

Population Crushed by Famine, but the Regime Saves the Statues of Kim (Apr 2008) Thanks to the enormous waste ordered by the regime, a disastrous economic policy and an attitude of international isolation unequalled in the world, the famine that has struck North Korea this year risks killing millions of people. The charge is made by Tony Banbury, director for Asia of the World Food Programme of the United Nations, who says the situation is serious, and rapidly getting worse. At the moment, according to UN estimates, 6.5 million North Koreans (out of a total population of 23 million) have nothing to eat; the numbers could rise rapidly even within the next few days.

Entirely dependent on international aid, North Korea has closed its borders after the worldwide condemnation prompted by its atomic tests. This has created a shortage of supplies, which, because of last year's floods, continue to deteriorate. Prices in Pyongyang's food stores have doubled since last year, and the shelves are increasingly bare: "the WFP has long warned that last year's floods would exacerbate DPRK's (North Korea's) chronic food problem and we are now seeing the effects in the markets," says Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the WFP's North Korea country director.

Tony Banbury adds that the WFP is taking the situation "very seriously", but "the WFP cannot solve the problem on our own". The North Korean regime, says the international agency, "needs to provide the necessary operating conditions for aid agencies so that donors have confidence that their donations will be used for the intended purposes. And donors need to do their part to ensure that the people of DPRK do not go hungry, or worse". North Korea has long been familiar with the drama of famine.

During the first half of the 1990's, more than two million people died of hunger after a series of floods and droughts. The government has never established a food policy based on the real possibilities of the territory, continuing to proclaim its independence but in fact surviving through South Korean and Chinese aid. But with the new president of Seoul, the conservative Lee Myung-bak, things have changed: without progress in the field of human rights, the newly elected president has said, there will be no humanitarian aid.

Instead of implementing policies of conservation and diplomatic rapprochement, Pyongyang has emphasised political propaganda and the cult of personality. North Korean dissidents who have fled abroad denounce the waste of millions of dollars, destined to preserve the myth of the founder of the People's Republic, Kim Il-sung ("eternal president" of the country, even if he has been dead for 14 years), and his son, the "dear leader" Kim Jong-il.

According to a report published by the Daily North Korea, which gathers testimonies from within the country, each year Pyongyang spends 800,000 dollars solely to preserve the body of the father of the country. This is cared for by seven Russian technicians - experts in the art of embalming - who rub the body twice a week with expensive chemical products that help to preserve the skin of the dead president.

Moreover, some satellite photographs, also published by the same group, demonstrate a fanatical new project of the regime: the construction of a series of subterranean tunnels connecting the bases of the statues of the two dictators spread around the country. These tunnels, which lead to a subterranean bunker, serve in case of attack to preserve the approximately 140,000 "works of art" present in North Korea. The cost of the project is around 890 million dollars, enough to buy 6 million tonnes of grain, which could save the lives of hundreds of thousands of people crushed by hunger. (Source: Asia News.)

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N. Korea denies report of abduction of women in 1970s (Apr 2008) North Korea on 24 Apr said a French daily's report that the North abducted and held at least 28 foreign women hostage, including three French, in the 1970s, is a "fabrication." On Wednesday, Le Figaro alleged the North abducted the women to use them to teach foreign languages to North Korean spies. In response to the report, an official at the North Korean mission in Paris said by phone, "There is no reason at all for us to kidnap French women or any other country's women." The official said on condition of anonymity, "They just point a finger at us whenever some people are missing since the Japanese have clung to this issue." Also among the group were three Italians, two Dutch and two from the Middle East, the French paper added, citing a testimony by a Lebanese woman who was released in 1979 after being held hostage by the North. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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N. Korean population estimated at 23.48 million: CIA (Apr 2008) North Korea's population is expected to increase slightly to 23.48 million in July, according to a U.S. intelligence agency report. North Korea will see its population increase to 23,479,089 in July, up 0.73 percent from 23,301,725 a year ago, the Central Intelligence Agency said in its updated version of the World Factbook 2008. The report, available on the agency's Website, also estimated the average life expectancy for North Koreans at 72.2 years, 0.28 of a year longer than a year earlier. The average life expectancy had been on a steady rise from 71.37 in 2005, to 71.65 in 2006, 71.92 in 2007. The crude birth rate, or the number of newborn babies for every 1,000 people, was estimated to be 14.61, down from 15.06 a year earlier. The crude death rate was on the increase from 7.05 in 2005, to 7.13 in 2006, 7.21 in 2007 and 7.29 this year. No complete census has taken place in North Korea since 1994 when a U.N. agency helped the communist state conduct a national census. Pyongyang announced after the survey that its population was 21.21 million people. According to an almanac released Sunday by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, North Korea's population increased gradually to 23.6 million in 2004 despite the chronic economic plight of the isolated communist state. North Korea is scheduled to hold the first nationwide census in 14 years with assistance from the United Nations Population Fund in October. (Source: Hankyoreh News.)

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May 2008

Starvation begins: Dying of Starvation Yangduk, South Pyongan province: Good friends report (May 2008) In the farming areas of the township of Yangduk , Yangduk County and the vicinity in South Pyongan Province , instances of people dying by starvation due to a shortage of food rations are appearing. Currently, there are many individuals who have been so weakened by the lack of food that they are unable to move their bodies, and one or two deaths are transpiring in each village due to starvation. The Yangduk County Party has stressed the fact that more deaths by starvation will take place if emergency food rations are not supplied, but has not been able to take actions beyond that. Officials in the County party and the farmsare doing nothing more than intensifying ideological education and saying, 'All of us are facing difficult times, so let's tighten our belts and solve this problem. Everyone report to work.' Farmer Han Kyung-duk (56) appealed, 'Please give us something to eat. If you do that, we will report to work even if you tell us not to. We need to eat something in order to have the strength to work.' Currently, the southern regions of the country, starting with South Pyongan Province, are all facing the same situation, and citizens are increasingly worrying amongst themselves that 'If the price of food continues to rise and the government continues to do nothing about the food situation, there will be many more people who will die within the month.'

Food Shortage Rapidly Spread in Spring

With the start of the spring season, the food shortage is increasing rapidly all across the nation. Areas in South Hwanghae Province; counties in Kaesong City, such as Kaepung and Changpung ; Kumchun in North Hwanghae Province, counties in South Pyongan Province, such as Mundok , Yangduk , Sinyang ; and counties in Kangwon Province such as Kosan , Kumgang in particular are suffering greatly from the food shortage. Areas that are farmlands are suffering more from the food shortage, and the number of families that are subsisting on only one meal a day is rapidly increasing. Most families only eat one or two meals a day, and there are many families that eat noodles, porridge, grass, or mountain greens that have been boiled with salt. There are also many families that eat such little maize porridge that they are basically rinsing out their mouths with the porridge water rather than eating a full meal. In some of these households, people become very thin and die in their homes without even knowing the name of the diseases they have. (Source: Good Friends Report.) (SITE NOTE: The last time starvation hit NK, the people were scavenging in spring for millet (grass seeds) to make soup.)

Thousands may die from famine spreading in N.K.: group (May 2008) Famine has started to cause deaths in North Korea and hundreds of thousands of people may die by June, a local aid group said Friday amid warnings that the communist state faces its worst food shortage in years. People are already starving to death in such regions as Yangdok, South Pyongan Province and Sariwon, Hwanghae Province, the head of Buddhist aid group Good Friends, Ven. Pomnyun, told reporters in Washington. About 200,000 to 300,000 people might die of starvation in two months if there is no emergency aid from the international community, he warned.

Earlier on Thursday, Good Friends said in its weekly newsletter that a daily average of one to two North Korean residents died of hunger in recent days. However, it did not provide the source of the information. It quoted an unnamed senior official of the North Korean Workers' Party as saying that the North's food situation is as bad as one in the late 1990s when millions of people are believed to have died of starvation. North Korea has since depended on foreign handouts to feed its 23 million people. Massive deaths from famine are only "a question of time," the official was quoted as saying. South Korea should know "a formidable storm of famine-related death" is slowly moving northward in the neighboring country, the group warned. The report followed a series of warnings about the North Korea food crisis from many international aid groups.

The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization said in late March it expected North Korea to be short of about 1.66 million tons of grain this year, which would be the largest deficit in about seven years, due to soaring world grain prices and reduced international aid. Last week, the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics warned the North is facing the most "precarious situation" since the famine of the 1990s. Good Friends earlier said rations have been sharply reduced, even among ones for the elite citizens in Pyongyang, and warned massive deaths from starvation could begin to appear in provincial areas around May. According to senior officials of the U.N. World Food Program, the North Korean market prices of rice had more than doubled in the past year, with 1 kg costing about one-third of the monthly salary of an average North Korean worker.

South Korea has annually sent about 400,000 tons of rice in aid to North Korea in recent years. But the North has yet to make a request for aid this year. Relations with South Korea, one of the North's major donors, chilled since the inauguration of conservative President Lee Myung-bak on Feb. 25. Lee's government has said it will link inter-Korean cooperation programs to progress on the North's nuclear disarmament, in stark contrast with the positions of the two previous administrations that provided billions of dollars of aid to the North with few strings attached under their "sunshine policy" of engaging Pyongyang.

North Korea appears to be pinning hope on third countries, including China and the U.S., to get food aid. Media reports say Pyongyang already requested 150,000 tons of rice aid from China, of which 50,000 tons were already sent in the form of exports. Experts say the request for food aid may have been discussed when North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun visited Beijing late last month. Italy and India are reportedly set to provide 2,600 tons and 2,000 tons of food, respectively, to the North. Washington is reportedly preparing to send 500,000 tons of rice to North Korea this year if the North makes its long-awaited declaration of its nuclear programs. A team of U.S. officials visited North Korea this week to discuss how to guarantee U.S. food aid is distributed to the North Koreans in most need, according to the U.S. State Department. The team had "in-depth and good negotiations" on the humanitarian aid with North Korean officials during their May 5-8 visit, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said Thursday. It did not, however, provide details of the negotiations.

Indicating South Korea may also be preparing to send food aid to North Korea, a ranking South Korean government official said on 9 May another government official will visit Washington next week to discuss food aid with U.S officials. However, he reaffirmed the government position that it will attach no condition to humanitarian aid to the North but such aid will be possible "only when there is a request" from the country. Analysts say there is little chance of such a request from the North which might view doing so as a loss of face. Good Friends called on the government to resume aid to prevent the imminent food crisis in North Korea even if no request is made. (Source: Yonhap News.) (SITE NOTE: Kim Jong-il has placed his brother in law in charge of stopping corruption. It appears the elite still have food, but it is being diverted. Supposedly #2 rice (poor grade rice) is still available at exorbitant prices in the market and the elite is selling their shares to buy smuggled rice from China. Reports continue to appear that workers are still too weak to report to work while the party orgranizations keep exhorting the people to tighten their belts for pending times of struggle.)

North Korea called on 10 May for nationwide efforts to increase grain production amid reports that the impoverished country is suffering from a dire shortage of staple foods. The Rodong Shinmun, the official newspaper of the North Korean Workers' Party, said the most pressing and important issue facing the country is addressing food shortages by drastically increasing grain production. (Source: Yonhap News.)

Farmers starving to death in N. Korea's breadbasket: aid group (May 2008) Farmers are dying of starvation in many regions of North Korea's main grain-producing province amid a worsening food shortage, a local aid group said on 20 May. Famine has caused deaths in almost all except one or two regions of South Hwanghae Province, the breadbasket of North Korea, said Good Friends, a Buddhist aid group working to help hungry North Koreans. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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Seoul set to approve 10 bln won in aid for N. Korea: official (May 2008) The South Korean government is set to approve a 10 billion won (US$9.6 million) aid package for impoverished North Korea, an official said on 11 May, despite its chilled relations with the communist state amid the North's protests against Seoul's new conservative government. The money, if approved, will be spent throughout the year to match funds raised by civic organizations spearheading various aid projects, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. (SITE NOTE: The charity is tempered as "matching funds" for civic groups -- AND is spread out over the year not as a lump sum. This is NOT an aid gesture.)

However, whether the money will actually find its way to the communist North remains to be seen as Seoul's new conservative administration has vowed to link any non-humanitarian assistance for the North to progress in international talks aimed at ridding the North of its nuclear programs. "The Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Promotion Committee will hold its first meeting since the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak administration on Thursday, and vote on the amount of funds to be provided to civilian humanitarian projects this year," the official at the Ministry of Unification said.

The ministry has been reviewing about 60 requests for matching funds since late February, but the total amount of government assistance for those organizations is expected to be reduced to some 10 billion won from 11.7 billion won last year, according to the official. The reduction is mainly due to a recommendation from state inspectors to reject requests from several organizations that were "disqualified" from government assistance due to lack of transparency in their management of funds, he said. The relationship between the divided Koreas has dipped to its lowest point in recent years as Pyongyang shut its doors to all South Korean government officials in March, citing what it claimed to be remarks by ranking military officials hinting at possible preemptive strikes against its country. (SITE NOTE: Right now the LMB government is axing the progressive groups funding -- and investigating many for misappropriations. The 60 requests may be whittled down significantly in the coming months.) (Source: Yonhap News.)

North Korea was willing to resume dialogue with South Korea if Seoul's new conservative government makes a positive gesture and pledges to uphold previous agreements between the two sides, a ranking North Korean official was quoted as saying on 10 May. In other words, the North wants the ROK to go back to its previous free giveaway programs -- and the above actions indicate that the ROK is not willing to do so.

Seoul Willing to Resume Food Aid to N.Korea -- through Third Party -- BUT THEN NO!!! (May 2008) The government is reportedly willing to resume food aid to North Korea despite a chill in relations, albeit through a third party such as an international organization after persistent criticism that direct aid does not reach those who need it most. A government official on Monday said the administration will decide whether to resume food aid to North Korea after consulting with the U.S. "We are deliberating over sending food aid to the North through the World Food Programme or the U.S.," he said.

Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan in an interview also said the government is negotiating with the U.S. and international organizations to seek ways of giving humanitarian aid to the North, which is suffering a severe food shortage. The change in attitude by the South Korean government is apparently due to recent progress toward reconvening six-nation talks on North Korea's denuclearization and a decision by the U.S. government to resume food aid to the North. The South Korean delegation is to meet with its U.S. counterpart in Washington D.C. to discuss the issue on 13 May. (Source: Chosun Ilbo)

The South Korean government is not considering sending rice aid to North Korea via an international organization, a senior official of the Unification Ministry said on 13 May. The denial followed media reports that the government may soon provide humanitarian rice aid to North Korea indirectly via the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) or the United States, as the stalled six-party process on North Korea's nuclear disarmament picked up speed and the country's food shortages worsened.

The Lee Myung-bak government has set two preconditions for resuming humanitarian aid to North Korea. One is Pyongyang's open request to the South for help and the other is domestic public consensus in favor of it. Domestic public opinion concerning aid to North Korea has been seriously divided. The present ruling Grand National Party has, throughout the past decade of progressive rule, been at the forefront of opposing "pouring" aid to the impoverished North without reciprocal moves to improve inter-Korean relations. That same GNP has recently changed its position, and called for food deliveries to the North to prevent massive starvation there. (Source: Korea Herald Editorial.)


With the announcement of U.S. food aid to North Korea, the South Korean government has relaxed its stance on providing aid to the North. At a press conference on May 19, Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hwan remarked, “If the food shortage proves to be very serious or a huge disaster occurs in the North, the South could offer food assistance.” The government has been in a quandary since the United States announced that it would provide food aid to the North. The South has provided approximately 500,000 tons of food to the North in the form of a loan, but this year, it said that it will send food only if the North asks for it.

The current government’s position is that Seoul will consider providing food assistance only if Pyongyang requests it. Yoo certainly has reconfirmed this in his statement. However, he added the food assistance could be provided under certain conditions - if the food shortage is confirmed as serious or in the event of a severe disaster - meaning that even in the absence of a formal request from the North, the South could provide indirect assistance through international organizations or domestic civil groups. Seoul provided indirect food aid to the North through the World Food Organization in 2007. Another government official confirmed this by saying that if there is mass starvation or a serious natural disaster in the North, the South can offer emergency assistance even if there is no request from Pyongyang. (Source: Hankyoreh News.) (SITE NOTE: The only problem is that the DPRK has announced that it will not ask for food from the South, but if the South sends food it will not decline it. In other words, the DPRK wants the free giveaway reinstated without strings attached. This places the ROK between a rock and a hard place. Thus LMB has made shifted the ROK policy on aid conditional upon (1) the DPRK asking for aid and (2) the Korean POPULACE (not politicians) saying ok -- and/or (3) if there is mass starvation whereby Seoul "CAN offer" emergency assistance.)

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Seoul considers corn aid for North Korea (May 2008) The Seoul government is reportedly considering sending 50,000 tons of corn to the North, a plan that was promoted last year but shelved by the new administration. We are reviewing the plan to provide 50,000 tons of corn directly to North Korea as one aspect of the many possibilities of humanitarian aid to the North, a high-ranked government official said on condition of anonymity.

The reconsideration of the plan comes amid a move by Washington to deliver 500,000 tons of grains to the impoverished North following reports of a worsening food shortage. During a summit meeting with visiting New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark, President Lee Myung-bak also said, While large-scale economic cooperation and investment should be conducted in line with progress in the nuclear problem, humanitarian aid should be provided regardless of the nuclear problem when the circumstances allow.

Lees administration has so far said that it will only send food aid to North Korea if it makes the request, while remaining more ambiguous in terms of joining international assistance. Political parties here, however, have been voicing calls for the government to offer unconditional humanitarian food aid as soon as possible.

The preceding Roh Moo-hyun administration had decided on Dec. 6 last year on a plan to send 50,000 tons of corn to the North. North Korea was hit hard by floods in the summer and is not producing as much food as its population needs to survive. But the government faced difficulties implementing the decision due to outside factors. One of the main reasons was Chinas stricter export control of its grains, citing its own food deficit. The corn was to be bought from China to be delivered to the North.

As conservative Lee Myung-Bak took over the presidency in February, policies toward the North shifted toward a more pragmatic angle. The new president has repeatedly said the days of forking over aid to the communist country unconditionally are over. The delivery of 50,000 tons of corn was decided by the last government but was not able to be implemented due to outside factors. It is therefore one of the viable options that would not come with any heavy political burden, another source said.

It still remains to be seen whether the plan could be actually implemented, considering an unpredictable Pyongyang, observers said. International organizations distributing food aid for destitute countries have addressed the food situation in North Korea, with some estimating between 200,000 and 300,000 people could die of hunger. The South Korean government says it is constantly keeping watch on the Norths food situation through discussions with international agencies, but that any decision to send humanitarian aid requires a deeper evaluation of the food status in the North.

Seoul has been sending grain as part of the World Food Program assistance for the North, as well as separate rice aid being given on loan. Government aid from international organizations in 1996 amounted to 3,409 tons of grain. By 1997 aid to North Korea soared to 18,241 tons of grain, 50,000 tons of corn and 300 tons of powdered milk. It also received 30,000 tons of corn and 10,000 tons of flour in 1998, followed by 100,000 tons of corn each year between 2001 and 2004. Last year, Seoul sent 120,000 tons of corn, 5,000 tons of wheat, 2,000 tons of flour and 1,000 tons of powdered milk. Separately, a total of 2.1 million tons of rice was sent between 2002 and 2007 except in 2006 when the North conducted a missile and nuclear weapons test. (Korea Herald

Seoul reserves 100,000 tons of corn for Pyongyang -- IN CASE (May 2008) South Korea is preparing to provide North Korea with about 100,000 tons of corn in case it is affected by either drought or floods in the coming months, a government official here said on 21 May. The impoverished communist nation often faces such natural disasters shortly before or during summer. "The government is still waiting for the North to request food aid first. Unless it does so, the government will wait for an appropriate moment," the Foreign Ministry official told Yonhap News Agency. "That (moment) includes when the North faces either drought or floods." He said, asking not to be named apparently due to the sensitivity of the issue, the South could send food to the North even without the latter's request if it suffers a natural disaster.

South Korea has suspended the direct delivery of rice and corn aid via the World Food Program for the North since the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration was launched early this year. The Lee administration plans to send corn, not rice, as corn requires immediate consumption, the official said. It is relatively easy to stock rice for military use. "The amount to be provided directly will likely be 100,000 tons or less," he said, citing the chill in inter-Korean relations. South Korea rarely sends corn or other non-rice grain directly to the North. (SITE NOTE: One can also buy more corn for the same amount of rice.)

The Unification Ministry said Monday that it will commission research into the North's food condition amid various reports on the situation. It is also paying keen attention to the public opinion here. "For now, the North's food condition is judged as not serious enough to require emergency aid. But (the government) is keeping a close watch on the development of the situation," ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun told reporters. Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan cited difficulties in getting exact information on the reported food shortage. Yu said if the reclusive nation's food condition is confirmed to be very serious or a severe natural disaster occurs there, South Korea can provide food. The U.S. government announced a plan last week to send 500,000 tons of food to the North, which reportedly faces a famine due to soaring commodity prices and a poor harvest. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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US to send food to N Korea under new deal -- Maybe... (May 2008) The US has agreed to give North Korea 500,000 tonnes of food aid under a new deal that would allow monitors unprecedented access to oversee distribution in the Stalinist state. Washington will supply 400,000 tonnes via the United Nation’s World Food Programme, while US non-governmental organisations will distribute another 100,000 tonnes, according to people familiar with the agreement. One US official told the Financial Times that President George W. Bush would approve the deal “within days”.

In order to ensure the food reaches ordinary North Koreans, Pyongyang has agreed to extensive monitoring, including random inspections that several observers said were “unprecedented”. It would also allow “port to mouth” inspections to reduce concerns that food would be siphoned off for the elites that support Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader. Pyongyang will also allow more monitors into North Korea than under previous food programmes, and will allow them to visit a greater number of areas. (SITE NOTE: These are monitors for distribution, but our concern is the handling from off-loading to the distribution centers where a lot of diverting could take place. Also the idea of "more monitors" is ambiguous at best. The North has consistently denied the distribution from outside sources -- and then uses its system to systematically divert the food to its army and elite BEFORE giving the remanents to the starving. Pictures have shown that past shipments from the ROK were loaded on Army trucks -- and then photos of the rice arriving at outposts on the DMZ are well-documented. The distribution MUST be from off-loading to handing out to civilians.)

North Korea will receive an initial shipment of 50,000 tonnes in early June. Once Mr Bush formally approves the deal, US experts will meet counterparts from North Korea, the WFP and NGOs to decide what kind of food is needed.

Jennifer Parmelee, a WFP spokeswoman, said the UN agency would “welcome” the resumption of US assistance but that it had “no word that any plans have been finalised”. (SITE NOTE: The ROK sudden denial that it was sending food to the North through the WFP right after meeting with his US counterpart makes this whole affair suspicious. It appears the ROK is allowing the US to be the front element in food aid -- perhaps part of a tri-party (Japan, US, ROK) plan.)

The move to provide food comes as humanitarian relief organisations warn that North Korea faces a looming humanitarian crisis with rising food prices for rice, potatoes, eggs and other commodities, sparked by substantial shortfalls. The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation estimates that North Korea faces a shortfall of 1.66m tonnes of food this year. The consensus in Washington is slightly lower, at 1.4m tonnes.

The decision by North Korea to allow relief workers to conduct inspections across most of the country also stands in stark contrast to Burma, where the ruling military junta refuses to allow most foreign relief teams into the cyclone-struck country where an estimated 100,000 people have died. The US official said North Korea agreed to the more intrusive inspection regime partly because of a growing level of trust between the countries over the current round of nuclear talks aimed at denuclearising the Korean peninsula. But he added that Pyongyang was also feeling pressure because of the global food crisis, and the fact that South Korea and China had curtailed aid. Another official stressed that the food deal had been closely coordinated with South Korea.

Some observers suggested that Republicans on Capitol Hill who want Mr Bush to take a tougher line on North Korea would raise concerns about the deal. Michael Green, a former Asia adviser to Mr Bush, said critics might be satisfied, however, if the arrangement included stringent monitoring. But he said the administration would have a difficult time convincing people that the food deal was not aimed at enticing North Korea to move towards denuclearisation.

The US is negotiating with Pyongyang towards completing the second phase of the six-party talks. Sung Kim, the top state department Korea expert, this week returned from Pyongyang with thousands of pages of documents that North Korea says will back up claims that it only produced 30kg of plutonium at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor. North Korea must provide a full declaration of its nuclear programmes to complete the second phase, which would result in its removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Administration officials strongly rejected suggestions that the two issues were linked. (SITE NOTE: It is obvious that it is linked. But at the same time, if the ROK and Japan don't open their humanitarian purse strings, the pressure remains on the DPRK. This is political blackmail.)

“Long-standing US policy is that we give food aid on three conditions: the demonstrated need, consideration of competing needs elsewhere in the world, and our ability to ensure that the assistance actually gets to those who require it,” said Thomas Casey, deputy state department spokesman. “There is no connection with any other issues.” (Source: Financial Times.)

U.S. to resume food aid to N. Korea (May 2008) The U.S. aid agency announced on 16 May it was resuming food aid to North Korea with an agreement on improved monitoring and access in the communist state to ensure the assistance is reaching the intended recipients. "The United States intends to provide the DPRK with 500,000 metric tons in food commodities over the course of a 12-month program beginning in June 2008, with the World Food Program (WFP) to distribute approximately 400,000 tons and U.S. NGOs approximately 100,000 tons," the U.S. Agency for International Development said in a statement.

The agency said North Korea "agreed on terms for a substantial improvement in monitoring and access in order to allow for confirmation of receipt by the intended recipients." The food aid will come from the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust, with commodity mix and delivery schedules to be negotiated in coming weeks, it said. The first shipment is expected next month, in light of the urgency of North Korea's food shortfall, said the agency. "This program has developed through close coordination and extensive consultation with experts in the South Korean government," it added. (Source: Yonhap News.)

"The food aid of the U.S. government will help settle the food shortage in the DPRK (North Korea) to a certain extent," the DPRK stated in response to news of the US food aid. The remark, carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), was seen as unusual and swift because it came roughly 12 hours after the U.S. administration announced that it would begin sending the aid from June through international aid agencies.

'N.Korea to Allow Korean-speaking Monitors' (May 2008) The Washington Post says North Korea will allow Korean-speaking staff to monitor the distribution of planned U.S. food aid. The daily reported Sunday that Pyongyang also agreed to increase the number of the monitoring staff to 65 from 50. Korean-speaking staff had not been allowed to monitor U.S. aid distribution and Pyongyang had required Washington to notify its inspection and monitoring activities six to ten days in advance. The U.S. said on 14 May that it will send 500,000 metric tons of emergency food aid to the North over the next year under a deal permitting better monitoring of delivery.

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South Korea says Massive Famine Unlikely in North (May 2008) Associated Press on 23 May reported that the DPRK's food shortages are unlikely to lead to a massive famine like the one that killed up to 2 million people in the 1990s, an ROK National Intelligence Service intelligence agency official said Friday. The official told the National Assembly that the DPRK faces a shortfall of about 1.2 million tons of food this year but international aid is expected to address some of the shortage. (SITE NOTE: Goodfriends on 22 May wrote that a ROK government official stated that this year’s food shortages in the DPRK are not such a serious situation, and even though they have difficulty, it is not much as during the "Arduous March." We have to find out on what basis the official is making this judgment. News from around the DPRK in May is quite similar with the "arduous march" period. The ROK government should start providing support to the DPRK quickly. Reports of starvation throughout the country is being reported. Even soldiers are reporting that they are on reduced rations.)

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N.K. stops drills, sends troops to help farms: source (May 2008) North Korea's 1.1-million strong military has apparently halted its regular military exercises while its troops help farmers raise crops, a source here said on 28 May. The North's armed services usually hold large-scale inspections and scattered exercises around this time of year ahead of a massive regular summer exercise beginning in August, the source said. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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June 2008

First U.S. Food Consignment Reaches N.Korea (Jun 2008) The U.S. has started shipments of food to North Korea in the wake of North Korea's nuclear declaration and the blasting of the cooling tower at the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. A U.S. ship docked in the North Korean port of Nampo carrying 38,000 tons of food, the first shipment of 500,000 tons of food aid promised by Washington, CNN reported Sunday (29 Jun).

In memorandums of understanding on food aid with the U.S. and the World Food Programme, North Korea agreed to allow random checks to determine whether the intended recipients are actually getting the food, and to increase the number of foreign personnel working to provide food aid from 10 to 60.

The North also agreed to allow U.S. food aid to 150 of its counties, up from 50 in the past. Officially, the U.S. maintains the food and nuclear deals are unrelated, but the latest supply of food aid can nonetheless be seen as kind of compensation to the North for finally submitting its nuclear declaration six months after the deadline.

Meanwhile, North Korea rejected South Korea's offer in mid-May of 50,000 tons of corn aid, the Unification Ministry said Monday. Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun told reporters, "Through the Red Cross channel at the truce village of Panmunjom last week, we asked about North Korea's view of our offer of corn aid. But a working-level North Korean official said, 'No, we won't accept it.'" Kim added Seoul remains willing to supply 50,000 tons of corn aid “at a time and location the North wants, and without having separate government-level talks or contacts, if the North accepts our proposal in the future.” He said the government was hoping for an “affirmative response.” (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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July 2008

N.Korean Border Guards 'Shoot to Kill Defectors' (Jul 2008) North Korean border guards armed with Russian Dragunov sniper rifles shot dead citizens who tried to flee the impoverished nation by fording the Duman or Tumen River into China, the Sunday Times reported citing human rights campaigners.

"On the Chinese shore alone, two bodies, marked by several bullet holes, were found by a local activist,” the weekly paper said. "The shootings indicate a coordinated change in tactics by North Korea and China to deter refugees from crossing... The two countries, nominally socialist allies, have agreed to tighten security measures to ensure 'stability' in the run-up to the Olympic Games and to stop any embarrassing demonstrations by the refugees."

The Times said Chinese police are meanwhile carrying out house-to-house checks for North Koreans in villages and checking household registration papers much more thoroughly in the border towns. “But the most effective new measure is a cash reward, which people believe can be 150 pounds for informing on a North Korean in hiding,” it added. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

S. Korea to provide unconditional aid to N. Korea (Jul 2008) In a reversal, the government has announced that it will provide 50,000 tons of corn to North Korea. Though the South had previously insisted that aid to the North had to be accompanied by a round of inter-Korean talks, it has changed its position and is currently waiting for a reply from the North.

During a briefing on June 30, the Ministry of Unification’s spokesperson, Kim Ho-nyon, said, “Even if the South and the North don’t meet, we can provide corn, if the North informs us of the details of how the food will be received in writing or by fax. We will be waiting for a positive response from the North.”

Prior to this, the government proposed discussing the issue of food assistance via the Red Cross in Panmunjeom in mid-May but the North has yet to send an official response. It is remarkable to note the change in the government’s position, which has come on the heels of a U.S. agreement to provide food assistance to North Korea was signed on June 28, the day after the North exploded the cooling tower at its main nuclear facility in Yongbyon. U.S. boats carrying 38,000 tons of wheat, the first in what is to be a series of shipments of food aid, arrived at Nampo Port on June 29.

“Last week, the government asked for a reply from the North on corn assistance through the Red Cross at Panmunjeom, but a North Korean official refused the offer. The president of South Korea’s Red Cross tried to contact his counterpart in the North via telephone to confirm the North’s position, but North Korea so far refused even to receive the message.” The government has decided that it will provide corn to the North without inter-Korean talks or contact if the North accepts the assistance from the South, according to Kim. If the North does not reply by mid-July, the South will provide food aid through international organizations such as the World Food Program after the results of an inspection of the North’s food supply, Kim added. (Source: Hankyoreh.)

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Lee Suggests DPRK Resume Conversation (Jul 2008) Yonhap News reported that President Lee Myung-bak suggested resuming the conversation between two Koreas through his opening address to the National Assembly on July 11. Lee emphasized that the ROK government is willing to discuss the implementation of previous agreements, such as the 6.15 joint declaration and 10.4 summit declaration. President Lee's suggestion is interpreted as his willingness to change the policy toward the DPRK to break the deadlock.

President Lee Myung Bak reversed his tough approach to North Korea and offered to resume dialogue and provide humanitarian aid, but the move was immediately clouded by the fatal shooting of a South Korean woman by a North Korean soldier in the North's tourism enclave. Lee was informed of the woman's death one and a half hours before he was to make his speech, his aides said. But he pressed ahead with his reconciliation overture. In a sign of the frosty relations between the two countries, South Korea was not informed of the shooting by the North Korean government but by the South Korean tour company.

During his speech, Lee said "full dialogue between the two Koreas must resume." He said he is willing to seriously discuss with the North how to implement principles addressed at previous inter-Korea summits. Inter-Korea relations have soured since Lee, well known for a hard-line view on the North, took office in February. His political aides and top military commanders rarely shied away from making hawkish comments on Pyongyang. Since Lee took charge, the North has refused to talk with the South and has even refused 50,000 tons of corn aid offered by Seoul. (Source: IHT and Joongang Ilbo.)

North Response Cold (Jul 2008) More signs of trouble were seen on 12 Jul for the Lee Myung-bak administration’ efforts to thaw frozen inter-Korean relations as Pyongyang used insulting language to turn down the South Korean president’s offer to engage in dialogue. “Although the renegade talked about resumption of dialogue this time, the words are empty,” said yesterday’s Rodong Shinmun, the official newspaper of the North’s governing Workers’ Party. “The speech once again revealed the anti-unification position and confrontational character of Lee Myung-bak, the traitor.”

Lee addressed the National Assembly on 11 Jul on a wide range of important national issues, including an offer to the North to resume inter-Korean dialogue. According to South Korean officials, Lee was briefed about the shooting incident at the Kumgangsan Resort shortly before he delivered the speech but he delivered the offer anyway. (Source: Joongang Ilbo .)

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South Korean killed in the North (11 Jul 2008) A 53-year-old South Korean woman who was on a trip to Mount Kumgang in North Korea was shot to death by a North Korean soldier after she entered a restricted military zone, the South Korean government announced on 11 Jul. The first death of a South Korean tourist in the North clouded President Lee Myung-bak’s speech on 11 Jul in which he announced his intention to revive inter-Korean relations. Seoul announced it would temporarily halt its tourism program with the North as of 12 Jul.

Park Wang-ja, a Seoul resident, was shot to a death around 5 a.m. on 11 Jul when she entered an off-limit military zone at a beach in Jangjeon port area, Unification Ministry’s spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said in a briefing. Park was one of some 1,500 tourists visiting the Kumgang Mountain area in the North this week. The tour program began in 1998 by South Korea’s Hyundai Asan. Park, the wife of a retired policeman, had left her hotel to watch the sunrise over the sea at the beach, fellow travelers told local media.

According to Kim, a North Korean authority told Hyundai Asan at 11:30 a.m. yesterday that a North Korean soldier warned Park to stop when she was caught walking in the military area early in the morning. When Park tried to run away, the soldier shot her. She was staying at the Kumgang Family Beach Hotel near the beach where she was killed. It is not known yet why Park was walking around the military area at such an early hour. Park’s body, with two gunshot wounds to her backside, is currently being held at Sokcho Medical Center, Gangwon Province, which is near the inter-Korea border, Kim said.

“We will take necessary actions to investigate the accident ... and we urge the North to actively cooperate with the probe,” said Kim. “We will temporarily halt the Mount Kumgang tourism program until the investigation is completed and will take measures based on the results.” Kim Jung-tae, director of the ministry’s Inter-Korean Exchanges and Cooperation Bureau, also said the South Korean government has not yet received any official notification from Pyongyang.

About 1,300 South Korean tourists who were staying in the North were being sent back to the South beginning 11 Jul. The tourism program was first envisioned by the late Hyundai Group Chairman Chung Ju-yung who visited North Korea in 1989 and signed the contract for a project to develop the Mount Kumgang area as a tourist attraction for South Koreans. Nine years later, his son, Mong-hun, kicked off the program. So far more than a million South Koreans have visited the mountainous area well known for beautiful scenery and is considered to be something of a spiritual heartland here.

Hyundai Asan reported the incident to the South Korean government at around 11:30 a.m. 11 Jul, about three hours before Lee made a speech at the National Assembly where he called for greater inter-Korea dialogue. A Blue House senior official said Lee was notified about the incident when he was about to leave for the National Assembly, stressing that the two issues were not connected.

“The accident and today’s speech are two completely separate issues,” said the official who asked for customary anonymity. “We didn’t view this accident lightly ... today’s speech only concerned the overall framework and general directions for future inter-Korea relations.” “We can’t change the big picture of government policy spontaneously,” the official said when asked whether the Blue House considered changing the speech after the accident was reported. (SITE NOTE: We view it as significant that the Blue House refers to the incident as an "accident.") (Source: Joongang Ilbo.)

UPDATE: Initial Reports Conflict (12 Jul 2008) What is significant to us was that the conservative media is using the term “accident” instead of “tragic incident” or “military misstep” or any of the other terms that could imply that it was a serious inter-Korea incident. The traffic accident in Kaesong where the driver killed a North Korean after having soju was treated with a greater degree of seriousness than this incident. Ironically, the Hankyoreh DID call it a "tragic accident" and "misstep" but stated, "We in the South must not, however, respond too emotionally. While an inquiry does needs to take place, it at least appears to have been an accidental occurrence. It needs to be kept separate from the Mount Geumgang tourism project and the Gaeseong (Kaesong) industrial complex and the whole of inter-Korean relations. There must be no careless intensification of military tension between the two sides."

Immediately there were reports of inconsistencies between the North Korean report. First reports stated North Korea claimed the woman broke through an iron fence to enter the off-limits area and disobeyed a repeated order from the soldier to halt as well as disregarded warning shots, according to Hyundai Asan. But there were conflicting reports on the North Korean soldier who supposedly chased her for over 1 kilometer repeatedly giving warnings for her to stop before shooting her twice in the back. Later there were reports that it was 4.8 km over a half hour period -- and that there were warning shots. There are no witnesses of the actual shooting -- besides North Koreans -- and things simply did not add up.

Later Hyundai Asan stated that North Korea claimed the woman crossed about 1.2 kilometers into a fenced-off military area, but fled back toward the hotel where she was staying when the soldier ordered her to halt for investigation.

People first question how did she get into the restricted area. It became apparent that she didn't physically scale any wire entanglements, because there are only light-green colored fences separating the tourist area from restricted area on the beach. The fences are 2 meters high. If it was an unmarked area, the other tourists were saying they were never warned of the off limit areas by the Hyundai Asan tour group. Later witnesses were found who heard the gunshots and then saw the woman lying on the beach with three North Korean soldiers appearing from behind a bush and then prodding the body to ensure it was dead.

Hyundai Asan is trying to minimize the damage to their tour but the cancellation of the tour will result in a $40 million loss in profits due to cancelled tours in the summer months. The estimate takes into account the cancellation of some 70,000 reservations until September, expected losses by Hyundai's resort facilities such as duty free shops and labor costs, according to officials of Hyundai Asan, the North Korean business arm of Hyundai Group. The estimated losses are equal to approximately 10 percent of Hyundai Asan's sales from last year and the suspension could deal a serious blow to the company's profitability if it is prolonged, officials said. As of 12 Jul, there was no posting of news on this incident on the Hyundai Asan site and the CEO Yoon Man-joon departed immediately for Kumgangsan to find out first hand what happened. Beyond a statement that Yoon has been in consultations with North Korea over the incident, the company has given no further details. Hyundai said that they have the closed-circuit TV footage from the hotel surveillance cameras, and it shows her leaving the lobby by herself around 4:30 AM.

According a blogger "cm" at Marmot's Hole, apparently that same beach had similar incidents last year when a preacher took a walk, and got captured by North Korean soldiers. There were no signs or warnings from the tour operators. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) Apparently a lot of people thoughtlessly take walks on the beach without realizing the danger - and no one warns them about the dangers.

A witness who saw the woman walk go past him, heard 2 gun shots in a row, minutes later. This directly counters North Korea’s claim that the woman had run 4.8km in half an hour and that there were warning shots. This man saw the North Korean soldiers checking out the body. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

UPDATE: Confusion over Facts (12 Jun 2008) North Korea said that it regrets the death of a South Korean tourist shot by a North Korean solider this week, but turned down the South's proposals to send a fact-finding team to the shooting site. The North Koreans have demanded South Korea apologize and have they said they will suspend all tours until they do. North Korea will not only cooperate, they want an apology. Meantime, the left wing Korea Jinbo Yondae has issued a regret over this incident but hopes that the North and South relationship will not be negatively effected.

"A South Korean who came to tour Mt. Kumgang was shot to death by a serviceman of the (North) Korean People's Army at around 4:50 a.m. on July 11. The DPRK feels regretful at this," the spokesman for the Guidance Bureau for the Comprehensive Development of Scenic Spots said in a statement reported by the (North) Korean Central News Agency. Park Wang-ja, a 53-year-old housewife, was taking a pre-dawn stroll on a beach near the Mount Geumgang resort before she was shot. North Korea claimed that the woman crossed deep into a fenced-off military area, but fled back toward her hotel when the soldier ordered her to halt for investigation.

Later in the day, the South Korean government called on the North to allow South Korean officials to visit the shooting site for an investigation. The North, however, refused the South's proposal. "As the cause of the incident is very clear and the north side has already confirmed the scene of the incident together with personnel of the Hyundai side right after its occurrence, it cannot accept the south side's proposal for inspecting the area of the north side for investigation," the spokesman said.

The program was launched by Hyundai Asan Co., an affiliate of South Korean conglomerate Hyundai Group, in November 1998. In response to the South's measures, the North called Seoul's decision to suspend the joint tourism program a "challenge" to the North. "The south side authorities unilaterally announced that they would suspend the tour of Mt. Kumgang for the time being, a challenge to the north side," the spokesman added.

"The responsibility for the incident entirely rests with the south side," it said, adding that the South Korean tourist "trespassed on the area under the military control of the north side, going beyond the tourist zone." "The South side should be held responsible for the incident," the North's official KCNA news agency on 12 Jul quoted the spokesman as saying. "The South Korean tourist intruded deep into the area under the military control of the North side all alone at dawn, going beyond the clearly marked boundary fence, even (her) shoes got wet," the spokesman said.

The North also urged the South to apologize for the incident. "The south side should be held responsible for the incident, make clear apology to the north side and take measures against the recurrence of the similar incident," the spokesman said. (Source: Yonhap News.)

UPDATE: Seoul Officially Challenges the North's Version (13 Jun 2008)The Unification Ministry stated, "We're trying to send a telephone message related to fact-finding efforts to the North through liaison officers at the truce village of Panmunjom," Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for the ministry said. "But the North is not reacting positively as of now," he said, indicating the North almost refused to receive the message. North Korea observers say Pyongyang appears to be reluctant to admit a South Korean fact-finding team.

The presidential office convened an emergency meeting of related ministries to discuss how to address the incident, according to presidential officials. President Lee Myung-bak expressed regret over the death and called on Pyongyang to cooperate for a swift investigation. "It is incomprehensible that (the North Korean soldier) shot and killed a civilian tourist incapable of resistance during the time when (he) could recognize (objects) with his naked eyes," Lee was quoted as saying during the meeting. "Swift action should be taken to investigate the incident, and follow-up measures should also be drawn up," he said, calling for the North to cooperate in the investigation.

A series of urgent meetings to discuss Seoul's next course of action took place over the weekend. President Lee Myung-bak scolded ministers in a 12 Jul meeting for a "serious problem" with crisis management, saying it took more than two hours for him to receive a report about the case.

"If a strict investigation is not conducted over this tragic incident, that would be like throwing cold water on expectations for developments in inter-Korean relations through South-North talks," the Unification Ministry said in a statement. "The North Korean military shot and killed an unarmed female tourist who undeniably had no intention to resist," South Korea's Ministry of Unification said in a statement. "This is indisputably wrong. It can not and should not happen."

"The act was wrong by any measure, unimaginable and should not have taken place at all." The South Korean government said Sunday that the shooting of a South Korean tourist by a North Korean soldier this week cannot be justified under any circumstances, urging the communist North to react in a responsible way. "The North Korean military shot dead an unarmed (South Korean) female tourist. The act was wrong by any measure, unimaginable and should not have occurred at all," Seoul's Unification Ministry said in a statement. "Under a previous inter-Korean agreement, North Korea is obliged to guarantee the safety of South Korean visitors to the North's Mount Geumgang complex. Even if there was any problem caused by the deceased tourist, a proper investigative procedure should have come first. The shooting death cannot be justified under any circumstances," said the statement.

Seoul also officially refuted Pyongyang's account of the incident. "The North has said the victim traveled 3.3 kilometers (2 miles) in 20 minutes from the time she left the hotel and until her death," Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said yesterday in a press briefing. "The victim was a woman in her 50s and she was moving on a sandy beach, so there is a logical contradiction in the North's argument."

Facing North Korea's defiance, Seoul made it clear yesterday that the killing was unjustifiable and Pyongyang's attitude is unacceptable. Citing an inter-Korean agreement governing visitors at the resort, Seoul's Unification Ministry said a South Korean tourist's personal safety should have been guaranteed. "If there were any problem, the person should have been stopped and investigated, but shooting the person to death can never be justified for any reason," the ministry said. "This is a serious issue related to the life and safety of an innocent civilian, and it is the South Korean people and government's position that the truth must be laid bare," the Unification Ministry said. "The North must accept South Korean investigators and discuss a measure to prevent recurrence of a similar incident." "If a thorough investigation does not take place, it will throw cold water on everyone's expectations for development of inter-Korean relations through dialogue," the ministry said.

The North has yet to officially inform the South Korean government of the incident, Kim said. Pyongyang cut off dialogue with Seoul in early April, citing the new president's tough stance toward the communist state. The conservative Lee Myung-bak, who took office in late February, has pledged to link inter-Korean relations to North Korea's denuclearization.

According to the North's explanations of the incident relayed to Hyundai Asan, Park Wang-ja, a 53-year-old housewife from northern Seoul, went out of her hotel alone at 4:30 a.m. to see sunrise. Park entered a fenced off military area restricted to civilians, and walked about 1 kilometer further into the restricted zone. A North Korean soldier demanded Park stop but she ran away to the tourist area. The soldier fired a warning and then shot her twice when she was some 200 meters away from the fence. She died at about 5.00 a.m. at the scene. Doctors at a South Korean hospital in Gangwon Province confirmed Park was shot in the chest and hip from behind.

But some newspapers and her bereaved family members raised the possibility of the soldier's "excessive response." "My younger sister is so timid that she won't even get close to a cat," a sister of the woman told Yonhap News Agency. "For what reason would such a woman venture to cross into the fenced-off zone during a stroll in the other's country?" she asked.

Bang Jae-jeong, the 23-year-old son of the victim, said it's "nonsense" to say that his "feeble" mother ran about 5 kilometers in the 30 minutes from her departure from the hotel until she was shot. (SITE NOTE: This was in response to an early report that she was chased for 4.8 km over a half hour period -- and that there were warning shots before she was shot.)



Map of Shooting Incident (Chosun Ilbo)


Map of the incident (Hankyoreh)

An eyewitness, also at the beach to see the sunrise, told local media Park passed by him and after awhile he heard two gun shots with 10-second intervals and a scream. Lee In-bok, one of the six tourists who allegedly saw the shooting, said he heard two gunshots and a scream five to 10 minutes after seeing a middle-aged woman dressed in black strolling along the beach early Friday. Lee In-bok, a 23-year-old history student at Kyungpook National University, said that he saw a woman strolling along the beach around 4:50 a.m. when he was with his friends there to see sunrise. "I saw a woman passing in front of me, about 30 meters away, slowly, as if she was strolling," Lee said.

``About 5 to 10 minutes later, there were sounds of a gun twice, with an interval of about 10 seconds, and a scream." He said to the Joongang Ilbo he heard a single gunshot and a scream. Another gunshot was heard about 10 seconds later with another scream. "I heard a scream, which made me turn left, and I saw a person collapse while three (North Korean) soldiers ran out from the mountain," Lee In-bok, a witness to the scene and also touring Mount Kumgang at the time, told YTN TV.

As to the number of shots, he said, "I may not be accurate because I was not paying particular attention at the time, and there were sounds of the waves, but I just don't recall any other shots fired," Lee said.

Lee said he became curious and climbed to the top of a sand dune near the fence, and saw three soldiers in uniform about 300 meters away gathered around a fallen person. Lee also said it was difficult to tell that the fence was separating the tourist beach from the military installation. "It looked very easy to cross the fence for someone who did not know the regulations," Lee said. "I was never told not to go outside the fence, nor were there any warning signs. I wanted to move closer to see what had happened, but I couldn't because there were North Korean soldiers. So I stayed on top of the dune and observed the situation from there."

While the North claimed that it fired warning blanks, Lee said he only heard two gunshots, which were consistent with the wounds on her body. In the Reuters interview he said, "We saw a person on the ground and three soldiers moving to the person, touching her with their feet as if they were checking whether she was dead. We felt the soldiers watching us, so we returned to the hotel. We thought it was part of their drill,'' he said. In another he said, "I saw one person lying on the ground and three (North Korean) soldiers rushing out of a bush about 300 meters away (from where I was)," Lee, a 23-year-old college student from Daegu, told the news agency by phone. "The soldiers prodded the person lying on the ground with their feet, as if to check if the person was alive or dead," he said. "Soldiers nudged the fallen person by their feet but I never thought (that person) was a tourist," Lee added. He said it doesn't seem to be difficult for a tourist to get into the restricted North Korean zone by simply crossing a shallow stream. "I didn't see any iron fence there," he added. (Source: Reuters and Korea Times and (Source: Joongang Ilbo and Hankyoreh.)

Unlike Hyundai's claim, Lee said people could enter the ``restricted'' zone easily and that there was nothing like fences, but simply a small brook. A friend of Park also said she herself had strolled to the zone during the daytime the day before, and did not even know it was a restricted area because there was neither a fence nor a signboard. "We didn't know that the area was off limits to civilians. We didn't know there was a North Korean military guard post," Lee, who visited the resort with other tourists, said.

North Korea claimed that the woman crossed deep into a fenced-off military area, but fled toward her hotel when the soldier ordered her to halt. She died at 4:50 a.m. at a spot located 200 meters from the fence, according to the North. The Unification Ministry spokesman said closed circuit television (CCTV) footage from the hotel where Park was staying showed she went outside at 4:30 a.m. He said the hotel was 706 meters from the beach, while the distance between the entrance to the beach and the fense was 428 meters. The distance from the fence to the so-called "Kisaeng Rocks," an area where a North Korean soldier claimed to have first detected her, is 1,200 meters, he added. "Mrs. Park must have covered 3,334 meters at most or 3,000 meters at least, according to the North's claim," said Kim. "It is very doubtful that such a woman in her 50's had covered about 3 kilometers in just 20 minutes. In addition, the area was entirely sand." (Source: Reuters.)


Fence and sand mounds near water that is accessible at low tide (Hankyoreh)


Fence and sandmounds close up (Hankyoreh) (SITE NOTE: Note the small warning sign in the weeds.)

Photographs have been disclosed of the North's military facility protection zone where a South Korean tourist was killed last week. Hyundai Asan, South Korea’s operator of the Mount Geumgang tours, unveiled on Monday four photographs that were taken on Sunday in the early morning hours, around the same time the tourist, Park Wang-ja, was shot and killed by a North Korean soldier last Friday. The photos show a fence that divides the area of the military facility protection zone from the area where tourists are allowed entry. Some parts of the restricted area in the Mt. Kumgang beach in North Korea where a South Korean tourist was shot dead by a North Korean guard on Friday are protected not by fences but by a sand dune. Hyundai Asan, the Mt. Kumgang tour operator, on Sunday released four photos of the area near the western line of control at the beach. Three of them were taken at around 5 a.m. on Sunday, the reported time of Friday's shooting, and clearly show that it is bright enough to identify a person. In the pictures, a yellow-green fence 3.5 m in m long is seen leading from a promenade towards the sea. But the fence does not block the entire way, and between the point where it ends to the water, there is only a sand dune standing 1-2 m in m in meters to the left from the sand dune, where a stroller might well miss it. The photographic evidence conflicts with Hyundai Asan’s earlier account, which said Park must have climbed over the fence or entered the restricted area during ebb tide by going around the fence. The sand dune is small enough for an adult traveler to walk over. The photographs have fueled criticism of North Korea’s apparent overreaction. Hyundai Asan now said it suspects Park entered the restricted zone after leaping over a sand dune near the seaside where there are no fences. Standing three-and-a-half meters tall, the iron fence extends only to where the sea and a small stream meet. From there, there is only a 30-meter-wide sand dune that divides the two areas, which Hyundai Asan, said made it easy for people to enter the restricted area. (Source: KBS Global and Chosun Ilbo.)

Hyundai Asan President Yoon Man-joon left for the site on Saturday afternoon for a civilian-level investigation.

Most of the 1,300 other South Koreans touring the mountain returned home following the incident, according to ministry officials.

Prime Minister Han Seung-soo and Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong will visit the hospital to console the bereaved family, according to the ministry's spokesman. The shooting death overshadowed already worsening relations between the two Koreas. North Korea cut off all governmental talks over President Lee's tough stance. The joint tour program began 10 years ago, and has drawn over 1.9 million visitors to the mountain regarded by both Koreas as one of the beautiful on the peninsula. Families separated by the fratricidal war have also held meetings at the resort under the supervision of the two governments.

South Korean officials said the shooting on 11 Jul will not lead to the suspension of another major inter-Korean tour project in North Korea's border city of Kaesong, where a joint industrial complex is located. The number of South Korean tourists heading to the Mount Geumgang rose by about 60 percent to 194,000 in the first six months of this year from 115,000 a year earlier, according to Hyundai Asan. (Source: Yonhap News.)

Park's body was handed over and moved a hospital in Seoul after undergoing an autopsy at a forensics lab Friday night. The result of the probe was not yet released. The body of the victim was moved to Asan Medical Center in southern Seoul early Saturday morning (12 Jul), and top government and Hyundai officials visited to offer condolences. Park’s relatives demanded yesterday to know the truth. “I have no idea how they managed the tourists,” said Bang Jae-jeong, her 23-year-old son. “I cannot believe she intruded in the restricted area so easily. I was told that a North Korean soldier chased her for about 1 kilometer, but that just doesn’t make sense. The North made a unilateral announcement, so there is nothing we can do, but I cannot accept any part of the explanation.” Park’s 53-year-old husband, Bang Yeong-min, said the government and Hyundai Asan should have paid more attention to the tourists in the North. “I want all suspicions to be answered. I want the truth so that my wife can rest in peace.” “It just doesn’t make sense that she crossed the steel fence wearing a skirt,” he said. “She was not the kind of person who would do so.” (Source: Joongang Ilbo.)

Park had gone on the trip with her friends to celebrate her birthday. Her husband regretted that he did not accompany his wife. He stated that she liked to take walks and probably did so as her friends were all asleep. He stated that when Park's body was returned, he was advised not to view the body until after the autopsy as it was covered with sand and blood. Her husband stated that he wanted answers to her death before he moves the coffin from the house. (Source: Korea Herald.)

The funeral in Seoul was arranged after Park's family changed its earlier decision to delay the burial until the two governments provide a satisfactory account of the shooting. Sobbing and facing down, Park's 23-year-old son, Bang Jae-jeong, stood in front of the portrait of his mother, kissing it and refusing to let her coffin be carried out of the hospital in eastern Seoul. Watching the scene, his father, Bang Young-min, apparently suppressed his feelings murmured words urging the son to step aside so Park's body could be shuffled off to a cemetery just north of Seoul. "Who will care for him? His mother's dead," a woman who appeared to be one of Park's sisters said in tears, hugging others clad in white funeral dresses. Park's coffin was covered with a black cloth, and fellow members of her church from just south of Seoul sang a Christian hymn in trembling voices. Watching the coffin being loaded onto a car, the only child grabbed his ill-fated mother's portrait again, falling on his knees and causing his father to finally break down in tears. Park's 80-year-old mother was absent, not even knowing of her daughter's death because she was feared to be unable to bear the shock. (Source: Yonhap News.) (SITE NOTE: Park's body was buried at a site in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, which Hyundai prepared for her. Hyundai Asan has decided to pay compensation to the family besides insurance money, but did not disclose the exact amount. Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun recommended all Hyundai workers and executives wear black suits or white ribbons as a sign of mourning for Park. (Source: Korea Times.))

The government said it is listening to testimonies of other South Korean tourists who were at the resort at the time of the incident. Park’s autopsy result will be available on 14 or 15 Jul, allowing Seoul to determine how far Park was from the shooter. (Source: Joongang Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: As of 15 Jul, the autopsy results still had not been released to the public.)

GNP criticizes slow response on Kumgang (14 Jul 2008) Three days after a South Korean tourist’s death at Mount Kumgang in North Korea, lawmakers in Seoul raised angry voices to urge Pyongyang to cooperate with a joint investigation of the incident and to meet with officials from the South. It remains unlikely that Pyongyang will respond amid escalating animosity between the two nations.

The GNP also had sharp words for the Blue House and other government agencies for mishandling the incident, an unusual move for the ruling party. “The Blue House aides reported the accident to the president nearly two hours after they were notified of the news [by the Unification Ministry],” said Gong Sung-jin, a member of the party’s supreme council. “I cannot help asking if their crisis management system is working properly.” (SITE NOTE: This is grand-standing. President Lee already scolded his cabinet for problems with the crisis management system as he was notified two hours after the Unification Ministry was notified -- by the Hyundai Assan team almost five hours after the incident.)

News of the death, which took place around 5 a.m. and was reported to the Unification Ministry at 11:40 a.m., reached President Lee Myung-bak at 1:30 p.m. when he was about to leave for the National Assembly to deliver a speech. Since the speech emphasized the importance of inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation and revealed Lee’s desire to resume talks with Pyongyang, several aides discussed possibly removing the part about the North from the speech. But they eventually decided to go ahead with the original draft, according to Blue House spokesman Lee Dong-kwan.

Gong said he disagrees with the decision not to mention the shooting. “I think public sentiment will not accept that such an important issue went unmentioned,” he said. Meanwhile, GNP floor leader Hong Joon-pyo suggested an inter-Korean legislators’ meeting in his speech to the National Assembly yesterday. “I’d like legislative leaders of the two Koreas to convene in the same place and genuinely discuss issues including establishing peace, inter-Korean economic cooperation, food shortages and humanitarian issues,” Hong said. Hong also sought to address the shooting death of the tourist in Mount Kumgang. “The government should do its best to fully investigate the matter and to establish measures to prevent such things from reoccurring,” he said. “We urge North Korea to actively cooperate with our request.”

Inter-Korean relations have soured since Lee, well known for his hard-line stance on the North, took office in February. Since then, both official and behind-the-scenes communication channels between the two Koreas have been frozen, officials say. “The government is unable to set up either official or unofficial communication channels even when such significant issues take place,” said DP party spokesman Choi Jae-sung. (SITE NOTE: The North has cut off the hotline and fax set up in 2000 after the Kim Dae-jung summit. It refuses to answer phone calls from Panmunjeon. There is no communication possible if the North will not cooperate. The progressives are starting to state that it was LMB's fault that the North stopped communications -- and directly responsible for the North's lack of responsiveness. Though ridiculous, there are those on the internet -- and media (Hankyoreh) -- who are pushing this divisive idea.)

Meanwhile, Yoon Man-joon, president of Hyundai Asan, extended his stay in Mount Kumgang to continue consultations with North Korean counterparts over the shooting. He was initially scheduled to return around 5 p.m. 14 Jul. Employees from the Mount Kumgang resort returned to Seoul on 14 Jul after inter-Korean tourism was temporarily suspended. (Source: Joongang Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: The progressives are attempting to use the internet to stir up trouble for the LMB government. Many also lashed out at Hyundai Asan, citing photos that show a large portion of the fence missing. Some also blamed the new conservative South Korean government for the shooting, saying it could have been avoided if its relations with the North had not been frayed.)

South Investigation Team Stymied (14 Jul 2008) Seoul formed an eight-member fact-finding team led by Hwang Boo-gi, director of the liaison support department at the Office of South-North Dialogue, on 14 Jul. The government has asked for North Korea's permission to allow the team to investigate the site of the shooting, but the reclusive state refused to accept the request. The government reiterated its call on the North to engage in a joint investigation with South Korean officials to remove speculations over the shooting. The government said it is hard to believe the North's claim that the South Korean tourist, a woman in her 50s, wearing a skirt, ran across a beach that is more than three kilometers long in just 20 minutes. (Source: KBS Global.) (SITE NOTE: Conveniently, Pyongyang said the surveillance camera installed in the military zone was not working at the time of the incident. This is part of the equipment that the ROK provided to the North at their request.)

``The killing remains a mystery. We will make clear if it was intentional or not after the investigation is completed,'' Kim told reporters. ``The priority is to form a fact-finding team of officials from related ministries.'' The team consisting of eight experts from the National Police Agency and the National Institute of Scientific Investigation will be led by Hwang Boo-gi, director of the liaison support department at the Office of South-North Dialogue, the spokesman said. Citing bilateral agreements to guarantee personal safety and safe return, the spokesman said the government is calling for permission to investigate the case on the scene. The South has urged the North to cooperate with the investigation into the killing but the Stalinist state rejected Seoul's request to send officials to investigate Saturday, claiming the responsibility for the incident rests entirely with the South. (Source: Korea Times.) (SITE NOTE: Progressives are trying to start a campaign that blames the problems with the shooting on the inability of LMB to talk with Kim Jong-il. The insanity is that it denys the shooting as the problem, but LMB as the problem. The Hankyoreh sees the inability of LMB to talk with the North as a wall that LMB is at fault for building -- instead of the giveaway programs under Roh where the North took and gave nothing in return while giving pats on the head to Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. Instead of the focus on the incident and shooting, the progressives are turning it into a political statement.)

The North continued to refuse to allow the investigation team in the North. The North has ignored the South's demand for an investigation into the incident. Through the liaison office at the truce village of Panmunjom, Seoul tried four times Saturday to deliver a phone notification on the demand, after which the message was released to the media. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

The Korea Times reported that international law experts stated that North Korea, as a member of the United Nations, is obliged to allow South Korean investigators to visit a resort town at Mount Geumgang in North Korea. The North's decision to ban the entry of a South Korean fact-finding team is an act against the U.N. Charter and the-Inter Korean Basic Agreement signed in 1991, they said. ``North Korea is responsible for fully cooperating with South Korea when an incident involving the two states takes place. This is stipulated in the U.N. Charter and the-Inter Korean Basic Agreement,'' Choi Seung-hwan, an international law expert and professor at Kyung Hee University's college of law, told The Korea Times. According to the U.N. Charter's article 33, parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, should seek a solution by negotiation or other peaceful means of their own choice.

Kim Young-seok, an international law professor at Ewha Womans University, said ``the Inter-Korean Agreement also stipulates when a dispute involving the two Koreas occurs, an inquiry commission comprised of investigators from the two Koreas and members from an independent international organization such as U.N. is supposed to be launched.'' Jae Seong-ho, a law professor at Chung-Ang University, also said the S. Korean authorities has the right to organize a fact-finding team in accordance with the agreement. Choi advised Korea to utilize the Chinese government as a mediator to resume talks regarding the killing with the North. ``Given China is the closest ally with the North, if the Chinese government asks the North to open its border to South Korean investigators and to restore its communication channels with Seoul, it should be very difficult for Pyongyang to disregard the requests,'' the professor said.

He said it could be added to the list of the agenda of the U.N. Security Council, which holds an authority to employ forcible measures, at the request of South Korean government or U.N. secretary general Ban Ki-moon. But it would provoke the North Korean regime and worsen inter-Korean relations rather than help address the problem, the professor said. (Source: Korea Times.)

A diplomatic source said on 16 Jul that he understands the South Korean government has asked its allies to cooperate in the proposed investigation of the fatal incident. The source said that consultations with the allies had just begun and would take a couple of days to progress, while refusing to reveal the names of the countries. In a related move, Seoul has reportedly briefed the United States, China and Japan on the incident, requesting that they prompt North Korea to accept the South's proposal of a joint probe. (Source: KBS Global.) (SITE NOTE: This is to exert international pressure on the North which at this time is counting on food and oil aid from these sources as it snubs the South. The South has no options except to go this route as the North will not even pick up the hotline phone to talk to the South.)

UPDATE: Witness Maintain Shots AFTER 5 am -- CCTV May Hold Key to Truth (15 Jul 2008) With the increasing number of South Koreans who witnessed the shooting death of Park Wang-ja, a South Korean tourist to Mount Geumgang, there is increasing speculation that North Korea intentionally manipulated the time of Park’s death. Under these circumstances, a surveillance camera installed in the North’s military off-limit zone is thought to be one of the objective proofs that will clear various speculations over the incident.

The witnesses so far maintain that they heard the gunshots later than 5 a.m. on July 11, rather than 4:50 a.m. claimed by the North. If their testimony is true, there is a possibility that the North intentionally advanced the time of the shooting. Regarding this, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyon said, “The government is now having interviews with the witnesses and verifying their statements after forming a joint investigation team to find the truth.”

Hyundai Asan CEO Yoon Man-joon and his team, who have been at the mountain resort from July 12, reportedly requested the North to check if the incident was recorded by the surveillance camera. But the North’s response has not been confirmed yet. The surveillance camera in question is a fixed-type camera facing the beach at an angle of 45 degrees. A Hyundai Asan source said, “It was confirmed that the CCTV is one of the safety equipments that Hyundai Asan provided to the North’s Mount Geumgang tour authorities in July 2005 when camping was allowed in the Mount Geumgang beach.” The source also added that it was the North who requested the CCTV back then, and that it is under the control of the North at present. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

'N. Korea's Initial Report on Tourist Shooting Was Not True' -- Hyundai Assan (Jul 2008) Hyundai Asan, the South Korean operator of tours to Mount Geumgang, said yesterday that North Korea’s initial report on Friday’s tourist shooting sent to South Korea was not true. Hyundai Asan CEO Yoon Man-joon said on 15 Jul after returning to the South, “Though not sufficiently, I heard a little bit about the incident (from the North).

It appears certain differences were in the initial report that was submitted shortly after the incident.” A Hyundai Asan source said Yoon and his team checked the distance covered by Park Wang-ja Friday morning, when the shooting occurred, and concluded that her move in time quoted by the North was impossible. The report the company prepared based on Pyongyang’s account said, “Park left the hotel at 4:30 a.m. When she came up to a rock in the restricted military zone, a North Korean guard told her to stop. But she ran toward the beach, and the guard chased her for about a kilometer and fired warning shots.”

Hyundai Asan found in its investigation that the distance between the hotel and the fence marking the zone is 1,080 meters. An ordinary adult would need about 14 minutes to cover that distance. Furthermore, it also found that point to be 1.2 kilometers away from the guard’s post. Against this backdrop, the company rejected as untrue the North’s claim that it took 20 to 30 minutes for Park to go from the hotel to the rock and to return to within a kilometer of the hotel. Yoon reportedly reported to South Korea’s Unification Ministry that the shooting is believed to have occurred around 5 a.m.

Pyongyang said the surveillance camera installed in the military zone was not working at the time of the incident, he added. The North has also ignored the South's demand for an investigation into the incident. Through the liaison office at the truce village of Panmunjom, Seoul tried four times Saturday to deliver a phone notification on the demand, after which the message was released to the media. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Evidence shows that the shooting that killed a South Korean tourist in the Mount Geumgang resort in North Korea is highly likely to have been caused by the North’s overreaction. According to the Unification Ministry and Hyundai Asan, which organizes trips to the resort, a North Korean soldier’s shooting of a South Korean woman, Park Wang-ja, was confirmed on 15 Jul to be against North Korea’s laws as well as the inter-Korean agreement.

Article 28 of the Mount Geumgang Resort of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Law, legislated on Nov. 13, 2002 by North Korea’s standing committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly, says that one who violates this law and hampers the management and tourism business may be subject to pay damages and if the violation is serious, may be expelled.

Article 19 includes observation rules for tourists at the resort including not taking pictures unrelated to sightseeing and not entering areas designated by the resort management organization as off-limits or other restricted areas. Even if a tourist enters the military zone in the North, the individual is fined or expelled according to the law.

The Rules on Entrance and Stay in the Mount Geumgang Resort set by the standing committee on April 29, 2004 also guarantee tourists’ inviolable rights. A government source said, “If North Korea did not stop Park from crossing the military border properly, it is the North`s clear mistake. If it knew her identity and shot her, it is a serious overreaction.”

There is also growing suspicion that the time and cause of the accident, of which North Korea initially informed Hyundai Asan last Friday when the shooting happened, may be false. The bottom line of Pyongyang’s explanation is that it asked Park, who stepped into the military zone, to stop, but she ran away about one kilometer in the direction of the beach so that it fired shots at 5 a.m. But the statement released by the North`s Guidance Bureau for Comprehensive Development of Scenic Spots dropped “pursuing her for one kilometer” and changed the firing time to 4:50 a.m., 10 minutes earlier. A North Korea expert said, “We cannot exclude the possibility that North Korean soldiers made a false report to cover up their mistake.” (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Distance from which tourist was shot in NK difficult to measure: Forensic expert (Jul 2008) Forensics experts confirmed on 16 Jul that the South Korean tourist killed in North Korea was shot in her chest and buttocks, but said the exact shooting distance was difficult to determine. "We found a total of two gunshot wounds, in her chest and buttocks," Seo Jung-seok, the top forensics scientist at the National Institute of Scientific Investigation, told reporters after conducting an autopsy on the victim's body. "Judging by the degree of damage to her internal organs and other evidence, it appears she was killed by 'long-distance shooting'" Seo said. He added, however, that by the term "long-distance shooting," he meant a distance of longer than 1-2 meters. Kim Dong-hwan, a gunshot expert at the institute, said it appears Park was shot from a distance greater than two meters as no gunpowder was found on her clothing. "It is difficult to judge the exact shooting distance based on that information," the scientist stressed. Seo said the shooting damaged Park's vital organs, such as her lungs and liver, and caused heavy blood loss. He also said the entry wounds indicated that the shots came from a 5.5 mm caliber rifle. Firearms experts say the North is believed to have AK-74 rifles capable of hitting targets within 550 meters.

Some South Korean newspapers had raised suspicions that a second North Korean soldier stationed in a post closer to the woman may have shot her without any warning shortly after she crossed into the restricted area. In that case, she may have been walking rather than running, the newspapers said. North Korea fueled these suspicions by frequently changing its account. The autopsy, however, failed to resolve the questions, including what happened to the third shot. (Source: Yonhap News.)


Victim Leaving Room at 4:31 am


North Koreans and Hyundai Asan at incident site


Site Location

Killing in North Falls Into Deeper Mystery (Jul 2008) Comments made by Hyundai Asan CEO Yoon Man-joon Wednesday have deepened the mystery surrounding the death of South Korean tourist Park Wang-ja who was shot by a North Korean soldier at Mount Geumgang last week. Hyundai Asan operates the tours to the scenic North Korean resort.

Since the North is refusing to allow officials from the South access to the site of the shooting, chances of verifying the truth behind the incident remain very low, analysts said. Yoon said the North was still refusing to hold a joint investigation, but what he learned at the location was different from what was reported to Seoul.

According to Yoon, North Korean officials said Park left the hotel around 4:18 a.m. Yoon said that after checking the hotel's CCTV tape, Asan staff “confirmed that Park left the hotel at 4:18 a.m., not 4:31 a.m. as was previously believed,” Yoon said. “The time difference came because the CCTV's inbuilt clock was 12 minutes and 50 seconds fast."

Park was spotted by the soldier around 4:50 a.m. She was allegedly 800 meters inside a fence delineating a restricted military zone and was walking quickly toward Gisaengbawi. When the solider spotted her, he shouted: ``Stop! If you move, I will shoot'' three times. (NOTE: Initially, the North said she had been spotted 1,200 m north of the fence.)

Park then turned and ran back toward the fence. She was running on hard ground while the soldier was on soft sand, widening the gap between the two. He then fired one blank, followed by three live rounds. (NOTE: Initially, the North said two warning shots were fired. Two rounds impacted in Park's body and the third is unknown. )

The time was estimated at around 4:55 a.m. to 5 a.m. and the location was 300 meters from the fence. (NOTE: It was initially reported that it was 200 meters. The time was initially reported as 4:50 a.m. and later the North reported it as 5 a.m. on 12 Jul.)

It was four hours later that the North reported Park's death to Hyundai -- around 9:20 a.m.-- allegedly because she carried no identification.

Yoon's story is quite different to what the North originally alleged right after the news hit the media in the South. Initially, it claimed the woman left the hotel around 4:31 a.m., walked about 1.2 kilometers into a fenced-off military zone and was shot around 4:50 a.m. while heading to the beach.

Yoon said the reason for the shooting given was that Park “turned back and ran away even after she was ordered three times to halt by the North Korean soldier. I heard that the soldier, as he was running on the sandy beach, had difficulty catching up with Park, who was running on the hardened ground in the area, so he finally aimed his gun and fired three shots at her."

Yoon explained the initial report was based on the testimony of North Korean troops involved and some Asan officials. They were not professionals and were unable to draw up an exact timeline, he said. Some differences in the accounts, he said, were due to the original report about the distances being made based on visual measurement by North Korean officials and Hyundai Asan staffers, without taking accurate measurements. ``We have looked into the global positioning system clock and surveillance camera tapes and sorted out the real time,'' he added.

However, he also left many questions unanswered. Yoon could not answer as to whether the shooting involved another person from the army; whether anyone was guarding the fences to warn off tourists; how the solder could not catch up with a 53-year-old woman; and whether a further joint investigation could be held. He said he did not ask the North about these. Instead, he asked the North to show more respect to the South. ``The North also expressed regrets once but public antipathy is at a serious level here.'' Yoon visited the North last Saturday, a day after Park's death was reported, and had several meetings with his North Korean counterparts. (Source: Korea Times.)

Regarding the killing of tourist Park Wang-ja by a North Korean soldier at Mount Geumgang, both conservatives and progressives called for the government and the tour operator Hyundai Asan to conduct a thorough investigation to find the truth. About 300 members of the Korea Agent Orange Veterans' Association rallied in front of the company building. However, their opinions about the move differed. Conservative groups, including the New Right Union, demanded the government cease all aid to North Korea, while progressives claimed the government should resume efforts for a peaceful relationship with the North. (Source: Korea Times and Chosun Ilbo.)

Seoul says tourist may not have been fleeing when shot (Aug 2008) South Korean investigators looking into the shooting death of a South Korean tourist by a North Korean soldier suggested on 1 Aug that the victim was shot when she was either strolling or standing still after the first shot missed her. Park Wang-ja, a 53-year-old housewife from Seoul, was gunned down while touring Mount Geumgang, a scenic resort on the North's east coast, at early dawn on July 11. She was found dead 200 meters inside a fenced-off North Korean military zone, according to photos of the scene released by Hyundai Asan, the tour operator. (Source: Yonhap News.)

According to the Korea Herald on 2 Aug reported the Korea's joint investigative team concluded that Park was shot while walking or standing still when she was targeted. This conclusion was reached from the angle of the bullet hole entering her shirt. She was shot from the rear within a 100m range. They also concluded the visibility was fair at 5am and the shooter could discern whether it was a man or woman from 70m. A mock test showed it would take 1 minute and 20-30 seconds to walk one hundred meters in sand. The woman's body was found 200 meters inside the fence. She left her room at 4:18 am and was shot around 5:16am. (NOTE: The hotel tape time marker showed 4:31 am but the team is declaring this an error.)


Ministry of Unification: Photos of Shooting

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Lee Threatens to End Mt. Kumgang Tours (Jul 2008) Seoul cannot resume tours to the Mt. Kumgang resort in North Korea unless the North agrees on a joint probe into the fatal shooting of a South Korean tourist there, promises to take measures to prevent the recurrence of similar incidents, and guarantees safe passage of tourists, President Lee Myung-bak said Wednesday. Presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan quoted the president as making the remarks after the North rebuffed all South Korean attempts to investigate Friday's fatal shooting of Park Wang-ja (53) at the mountain resort.

In a Cabinet meeting at Cheong Wa Dae that day, Lee said, "Over the past decade, both the government and citizens" of South Korea "have given an enormous amount of aid to the North. Many of our people have visited the Mt. Kumgang resort area with good intentions with a view to helping the North. But North Korea shot a defenseless tourist dead. This is unpardonable under any circumstances." He urged the North to "immediately agree on a joint probe to find out the truth. From the standpoint of international norms and common sense, it is quite natural North Korea should comply with our request." (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

S. Korea to halt delivery of aid, other materials to the North (Jul 2008) President Lee Myung-bak reaffirmed on 16 Jul that his government will not lift its ban on tours to Mt. Geumgang unless the communist regime allows a joint investigation into the shooting death of a female tourist at the North Korean resort. Lee also urged North Korea to ensure safety of South Korean tourists and take appropriate measures to prevent the recurrence of such a tragedy. The government will consider suspending civilian tours to Gaeseong if the North fails to meet the demands, he said. "If the security of tourists there is thought to be at risk, the government will reconsider the tour program," Lee Dong-kwan, spokesman for the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae, said on 18 Jul after the first National Security Council meeting since President Lee Myung-bak took office in February.

South Korea plans to suspend shipment to North Korea of material needed for agreed-upon inter-Korean projects, as well as government-level humanitarian aid, a source here said on 18 Jul. The move comes in retaliation for Pyongyang's refusal to cooperate in the investigation into the recent killing of a South Korean tourist by a North Korean soldier, the source added. South Korea has already halted its tourism business to the scenic mountain.

The South was initially scheduled to deliver equipment and materials this month to modernize an inter-Korean military communication line and furnish a newly-built family reunion center at Mount Geumgang. "The delivery plan will be shelved until the shooting incident is resolved," the source said.

South Korea also shifted to a cautious stance on its plan to send 50,000 tons of corn to the hunger-stricken neighbor, according to the source. The government initially proposed direct shipment of the food aid but the North did not respond. It has since sought to send it via the World Food Program as an alternative. (Source: Yonhap News and Joongang Ilbo.)

Gov't Plans to Audit Hyundai Asan (Jul 2008) "Hyundai Asan has never been audited although it receives the Inter-Korea Cooperation Fund," said a high-ranking government official Friday. "We need to look at whether the fund offered to Hyundai Asan has been properly used." The official added, "So far, the government has provided the fund to help the company make ends meet in its North Korea projects. Now is the time to review their business that recently turned surplus." A source from the presidential office said that President Lee Myung-bak said in the National Security Council he presided over for the first time since his inauguration that "a comprehensive review is needed for Hyundai Asan to find out whether they are responsible."

The way to audit Hyundai Asan has not been decided yet. Generally, the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) conducts an audit alone or jointly with other related ministries such as the Unification Ministry in this case. The BAI can audit a civilian organization on its expenses only, even when it is a non-governmental body, if it receives government subsidies or funding. What type of an audit it may be, in the case of Hyundai Asan, mainly the use of the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund will be inspected.

If it turns out that the company misappropriated the fund, related individuals or organizations can be punished under the law on subsidy management or embezzlement. The government formed an evaluation team for Mount Geumgang and Gaeseong tourism business management Friday and began an investigation into related employees of Hyundai Asan to review the current state of the tourism projects. The team will work to come up with measures for improvement.

The team consists of mid-level officials from the Office of Prime Minister, the Unification Ministry, the Culture, Sports and Tourism Ministry, and the National Police Agency and is led by Kim Eun-seok, head of the diplomacy and security policy division at the Office of Prime Minister. "The launch of the evaluation team is in line with the decision made at the National Security Council presided over by President Lee Myung-bak," said Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon. "The team plans to visit the site and investigate related Hyundai Asan staff starting Saturday."

Defense Ministry denounces N. Korea for shooting tourist (Aug 2008) Seoul's Defense Ministry on 1 Aug denounced North Korea for killing an innocent and unarmed civilian, offering its first official reaction since a South Korean tourist was killed at a resort just north of the DMZ last month. The ministry said the July 11 shooting of the female tourist, Park Wang-ja, not only went against humanitarian standards but also violated international laws.

The Defense Ministry said taking aimed shots at an unarmed civilian violates all norms and laws on the use of force. "Military force must only be used to defend oneself or one's unit. Shooting unarmed civilians is in violation of every international law and also runs counter to humanitarianism," a ministry official said. The ministry's position was reached at a Generals' Conference meeting, chaired by Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee and attended by 16 top ministry and military officials, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the chiefs of all three armed services. (Source: Yonhap News.)

NK will expel all "unnecessary" workers (Aug 2008) North Korea said Sunday it will expel all "unnecessary" South Korean personnel working at its eastern mountain resort, where a South Korean tourist was killed by a North Korean soldier last month. "We will expel all the persons of the south side staying in the Mt. Kumgang tourist area we deem unnecessary," an unnamed North Korean spokesman said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency earlier Sunday. More than 260 South Korean workers are stationed at the scenic resort, according to Hyundai Asan, the South Korean tour organizer.

"We will take strong military counter-actions against even the slightest hostile actions in the tourist resort," the spokesman added, accusing South Korean President Lee Myung-bak of using the shooting incident to drive "the frozen inter-Korean relations to a catastrophic phase." The announcement came as the South struggled to pressure its communist neighbor into cooperating in its investigation into the July 11 shooting death of 53-year-old South Korean housewife Park Wang-ja. (Source: Yonhap News.)

Mt.Kumgang Tours 'to Resume for 10th Anniversary' (Oct 2008) Tours to Mt. Kumgang, which have been halted since a South Korean tourist was shot dead in the North Korean resort, will resume by the end of this month or early next month, Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong said 6 Oct. Early November marks 10 years since tours began.

In a parliamentary audit of the Unification Ministry on Monday, Kim said, “I have hopes that the tours to Mt. Kumgang can be resumed as soon as possible. Since Nov. 8 is the 10th anniversary of the tours, I am hoping that they will reopen in late October or early November.” Cho Kun-shik, the president of official tour operator Hyundai Asan, appeared in the National Assembly as a witness, and said that there has been no effective negotiation between Hyundai Asan and the North Korean authorities over when to resume the tours, although there were some minor contacts. “We will seek a solution to this issue by having the company leadership visit the North,” Cho said. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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August 2008

N. Korea receives second shipment of U.S. food aid (Aug 2008) North Korea said on 5 Aug the second shipment of food aid from the United States has arrived in its western port of Nampo earlier this week. "A ship carrying the second batch of food donated by the U.S. has arrived at the Nampo port on Monday," the North's official Korean Central News Agency reported without elaborating. (Source: Yonhap News.) (SITE NOTE: Because of the difficulties between the North and South, the ROK has stated that it will donate food to the North if the WFP asks for aid. The WFP has already indicated that it will be seeking increased donations because of the threat of starvation.)

UN Asks Seoul for Food Aid to N. Korea (Aug 2008) The World Food Program has formally asked the South Korean government for US$60 million to procure grain and daily necessities for North Koreans hit by a severe food shortage, the Unification Ministry said Thursday. Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun quoted the WFP as saying the aid was needed for some 6.2 million indigent people in the North. "The government will decide whether to accept the appeal or not based on public opinion,” Kim added. “If necessary, we can conduct an opinion poll."

Kim said the government is not on the whole In favor of indirect aid to the North through international agencies “because it requires more administrative costs and time than direct aid.” He warned it will be difficult to reach a conclusion at a time when there has been no progress in the probe of the fatal shooting of a South Korean tourist at Mt. Kumgang in the North. The government has been saying it would deliver purely humanitarian aid to the North without strings attached and consider direct aid if there is a request from Pyongyang, or even without if there is a very serious food problem or a disaster occurs. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: The UN will not state that the NK situation is at the "starvation" point, but has asked the ROK which previously said it would contribute if asked by the WFP. However, now with the current situation over the shooting of the tourist at Kumgangsan Resort, the situation has been complicated. The Good Friends organization continues to state that starvation is spreading.)

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September 2008

N.Korean Leader 'Recovering' (Sep 2008) National Intelligence Service officials said North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is quickly recovering from a stroke and will have no problem running his government. The NIS officials were quoted by lawmakers as making the remarks during a briefing at the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on 10 Sep. A senior South Korean government official said Kim (66) “has gotten through a serious crisis. But I understand that he is partially paralyzed and feels discomfort with the left side of his body." A senior U.S. government official also said Kim has recently had some problem with his health but is apparently recovering.

Lawmakers said Kim had a stroke and lost consciousness at some point after Aug. 14. But foreign doctors performed surgery and took intensive care of him, and he can speak and move around now. They said NIS officers told them he has neither hemiplegia nor speech impediment and that there is no conspicuous disturbance in North Korea.

Medical experts said if Kim has no speech impediment, it means that he has no problem with the left side of his brain, where the speech-control center is situated, and the sequelae of the stroke will remain in the right side of his brain, paralyzing his left arm and leg. A lawmaker said NIS Director Kim Sung-ho mentioned three possible diseases -- cerebral hemorrhage, apoplexy and stroke -- but did not specify. The NIS said it has been carefully checking the veracity of intelligence gathered on Kim's recent treatment for circulatory disorder. His condition has apparently improved considerably after care from foreign doctors. A lawmaker said intelligence reports have it that a Chinese medical team went to the North in early August and a French medical team flew to North Korea around the time when Kim had surgery. A government source said the French team were neurosurgeons. (SITE NOTE: Rumor was that the French and Chinese doctors performed brain surgery. Kim Jong-il supposedly has seizures associated with this latest bout.)

North Korea denied there was anything wrong with Kim’s health. In an interview with Japan’s Kyodo news agency, the North’s no. 2 leader Kim Yong-nam said, "There is no problem" when he touched on Kim Jong-il's failure to appear at an event marking North Korea's 60th anniversary on Tuesday. The North Korean mission to the UN flatly denied what it called "rumors” about Kim's health. North Korea experts said it seems the North is currently managed and controlled by those closest to the chairman and key military leaders. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: Rumors stated there was “news that Kim collapsed from a stroke, and that a French doctor went to North Korea on Aug. 22. We are looking into the matter to confirm the validity of the story.” Another source said there are reports that five Chinese doctors arrived in the North at the end of August. An official at the Korean Embassy in Beijing said that the mission had intelligence reports that Kim collapsed on Aug. 22. Kim’s last public appearance was on Aug. 14, when the Korean Central News Agency reported that he visited the 1319 Army Base. The Washington Post stated that there was a power struggle going on in North Korea, while others were trying to guess who Kim's successor might be as he has not announced an official successor as of this date. His oldest son by his first marriage was written off as a playboy who reemerged in the Banco Delta fiasco as a shuttle source for monies. Other than that, he has been relatively unseen. The supposed successor is the second son by his second wife who has been shuttled into government jobs to "groom" him. The second wife is said to be the powerful force to place her sons ahead of Kim Jong-il's first wife's son. As of 11 Sep, things were all speculation as we have the standard situation -- DPRK denies reports of ill-health of KJI and the rest of the world is left guessing. )

So Who Will Succeed Kim Jong Il? (Sep 2008) If North Korean leader Kim Jong Il dies, this will not only change the power structure in the North’s military and the country’s future but also serve as a destabilizing factor in inter-Korean relations. The reclusive leader recently suffered a stroke. If his condition deteriorates and leads to a power vacuum, the communist country with a “military-first policy” will plunge into a major political crisis that could see a power struggle within the military or a coup d’état.

If Kim dies or slips into a coma, Kim Yong Nam, the head of the Supreme People`s Assembly, or the North’s parliament, is the first in line to the throne. Kim Yong Nam is also the North’s nominal head of state. Chances are, however, that top brass who occupy high posts in the Central Military Commission could emerge as potential successors since they can control the military, the basis of the communist regime.

Several powerful military figures also hold major positions in the Central Military Commission and the National Defense Commission and accompany Kim Jong II on visits to military facilities. With the revision of the North’s constitution in 1998, the National Defense Commission has evolved from the supreme military command to the supreme decision-making organization that controls state affairs.

Experts say one of the North’s top three military officials -- Ri Ul Sol, Jo Myong Rok or Kim Il Chol -- is likely to take over if Kim Jong Il dies. Ri, 87, is the marshal of the North Korean People`s Army and the number two man in the Central Military Commission. He retired from politics in 2005. The most likely candidate to assume power in the post-Kim Jong Il era is said to be Vice Marshal Jo, the director of the general political bureau of the North Korean army. He ranks second in the National Defense Commission and third in the Central Military Commission. If Jo, 80, has command of the military, he is likely to exercise control over nuclear arms. South Korean and U.S. intelligence say the North has six to 10 nuclear weapons. Jo’s ill health, however, will apparently prevent him from assuming power. He is also known to be suffering from renal failure and is rumored to be in critical condition.

Other likely candidates include Kim Yong Chun, chief of staff of the North Korean army; General Ri Myong Su, operations director of the National Defense Commission; and Vice Marshal Hyon Chol Hae, deputy director of the North Korean army’s general political bureau. Kim Yong Chun reviewed the troops at the 60th anniversary celebration of North Korea’s founding. Ri Myong Su often accompanied Kim Jong Il in military inspections.

Instability in the military and an intense power struggle are also forecast because supreme leader Kim has not appointed his successor. This is in contrast to his father and predecessor Kim Il Sung, who had groomed Kim Jong Il as his heir before he died in 1994. In this case, pro-China military officials who have maintained friendly relations with the Chinese military will clash with those favoring Russia. North Korea experts say pro-China figures will gain ground since they are close aides to Kim Jong Il and exert more influence.

Another possibility is a military coup. This scenario is rather improbable because the Workers’ Party and the North Korean government keep a close eye on every military unit. The possibility of a coup cannot be ruled out, however, if the reclusive leader’s death leads to a power vacuum for an extended period of time. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

More Info Emerging (Sep 2008) Meanwhile, it was confirmed on Thursday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's three sons -- Jong-nam (37), Jong-chul (27) and Jong-un (25) -- are all in Pyongyang. A senior South Korean government official said, "Jong-nam, who had been in Macao and China, returned around July and has since been staying in Pyongyang. It's unprecedented that the three sons of Kim's are together in one place for an extended period." After he was deported from Japan in 2001 after attempting to enter the country with a false passport, Jong-nam lost favor in his father's eyes and led a wandering life abroad. One of the three is likely to inherit Kim Kong-il's mantle.

Experts speculate that the North Korean party elite, government and military want to maintain their vested interests by supporting one of Kim's sons as a symbolic leader, because they agree that they might all go to their ruin together if a power struggle should occur in the post-Kim Jong-il days. While he had apparently banned discussions of his successor until recently, Kim may have changed his mind since he fell ill.

Congratulatory messages which North Korea's top five power organs sent to Kim on the 60th anniversary of North Korea's founding on Tuesday are being seen as a loyalty oath to the sick leader. The five are the National Defense Commission, the Korean Workers' Party Central Committee, the Korean Workers' Party Central Military Commission, the Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly, and the Cabinet. The agencies sent similar messages on Kim's 60th birthday in 2002 and on his 65th in 2007, but rarely on North Korea's anniversary. The agencies may have made an exception to consolidate the regime lest North Koreans become agitated by Kim's health problems.

At a rally on the eve of the anniversary, no. 2 leader Kim Yong-nam, the president of the Supreme People's Assembly, read a congratulatory message full of praise and pledges of loyalty to Kim Jong-il. "We will rely completely on the great leader comrade Kim Jong-il for our fate... He is a matchless patriot and an unparalleled great man who has led our republic along the road to victory and glory... We will uphold, with all our hearts and minds, the ideologies and leadership of the general, who is the symbol of Korea's victory and glory, and future based on the military-first ideology..." Some observers speculate that the message may reflect a temporary vacuum. "Our republic is comrade Kim Jong-il himself. Only with the general will there be a socialist fatherland and a bright future." The message also hails Kim Il-sung, but twice as much space is devoted to eulogizing Kim junior. A South Korean government official said, "Previous congratulatory messages also eulogized Kim Jong-il as a matchless hero and a genius. But his eulogy in the latest message is far stronger than previous ones. The messages were a kind of collective oath of loyalty to Kim Jong-il on his sick bed." (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

Kim's concubine emerging as key in North's leadership (Sep 2008) North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is known to have recovered enough to brush his teeth himself, about a month after he is believed to have suffered a stroke and had brain surgery. But it remains to be seen whether the Stalinist leader will be able to maintain his tight grip on the country. Now a growing number of sources familiar with Pyongyang politics are saying Kim Ok, Kim’s longtime secretary who is also known to be his concubine, is making many of the country’s policy decisions on Kim’s behalf. “We believe that Kim has recently started brushing his teeth himself, though he still has difficulty walking,” said one senior Seoul official who declined to be named. The official, however, said the South Korean government is still keeping a close eye on the Pyongyang presidential palace since Kim, notorious for his decadent lifestyle, is known to be vulnerable to medical maladies.

Since Kim’s health was catapulted into the public spotlight this week, political observers and intelligence officials here and abroad have scrambled to find the slightest sign over who may possibly succeed the 66 year old. But such signs remain murky at best while many sources point out Pyongyang may be operating under a collective leadership, while Kim Ok, the leader’s secretary, is also cementing her leverage within Pyongyang’s political scene.

A source familiar with Pyongyang politics said the reason for the collective leadership theory stems from Kim’s failure to designate his heir-apparent, while his father, Kim Il Sung, chose Jong-il as his successor when Jong-il was in his early 30s. “None of Kim Jong-il’s sons -- Jong-nam or Jong-chul - have made any political accomplishments,” said the source. “There is a high possibility that Kim’s leadership may be followed by a collective leadership with a deep military involvement.” Another prevalent scenario on the future Pyongyang politics features Kim Ok. “We are closely watching the woman who holds the door to Kim’s bedroom,” said one South Korean intelligence source in charge of North Korean affairs.

According to the source, the 44-year-old secretary has been living in Kim Jong-il’s residence and playing the role of his de facto wife. Kim Ok is one of a handful of people who have direct access to the reclusive leader, along with his sons. “She is the one who has the most accurate information about Kim Jong-il’s medical condition, along with the Chinese doctor who is taking care of him,” said the source. quoting a senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official, also said Kim Ok is handling all the paperwork to approve the country’s major policy decisions while the bedridden Kim may not be even involved in the process.

Kim Ok is known to have majored in piano at the Pyongyang School of Music before working at Kim Jong-il’s secretarial office. She had remained low profile until October 2000, when Jo Myong-rok, chief of the North’s Political Bureau of the People’s Army, visited Washington as the North’s special envoy to meet then - U.S. President Bill Clinton. She was the only female in the North Korean entourage that accompanied Jo.

Another source familiar with the North’s politics also said Ko Yong-hui, the late third wife of Kim and the mother of likely heir Jong-chul, promoted Kim Ok to her current high-profile position. The source said Koh, who died of cancer in 2004, selected Kim Ok to take care of her two sons after her death and to catapult her to the potentially powerful position. “Kim Ok will be confined to play a minor role in an ordinary power succession process,” said Lee Ki-dong, an inter-Korean research fellow at the Institute of National Security Strategy. “But in times like Kim Jong-il’s sudden death, her role may become critically important.” (Source: Joongang Ilbo.)

Speculation on sons (Sep 2008) Speculation has been circulating that Kim, the 66-year-old leader of North Korea and the son of the country's founding father, Kim Il Sung, is ill and may soon face the daunting task of selecting a successor. Such a decision, long pondered by political observers here and abroad, will be a big milestone that will affect regional security in Northeast Asia, experts said. News media here and abroad have reported Kim had collapsed on Aug. 22 and that several foreign doctors were recently dispatched to the North to treat him.

The annual celebration in September has long been a "litmus test" to check the health of reclusive Kim, Jang Sung-min, a former Democratic Party legislator and the head of World and the Northeast Asia Peace Forum, said in an interview with PBC radio station on 9 Sep. The communist country mobilized 20,000 soldiers for the regime's 50th anniversary in 1998 and some 10,000 for its 55th anniversary in 2003. Kim made an appearance each time. In total, he has attended 10 military inspections and parades since he assumed the post of the North's military commander-in-chief in 1991. And on 9 Sep, Pyongyang apparently made a rare choice of skipping the expected massive military parade.

Many former North Korean senior officials who defected to the South said that the discussion over Kim's possible successor halted there in 2005 after Kim ordered it to stop. But they pointed to the year 2012 as a milestone. Not only will Kim turn 70 that year, but it's also the year that the North said it will become a "strong, prosperous country." "The issue of power transfer is bound to erupt when the North enters that era," said Lee Ki-dong, an inter-Korean research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

Given the deeply rooted patriarchal tradition in North Korean society, the most likely candidate to succeed Kim in theory should be his 37-year-old first son, Jong-nam. But he has a significant flaw in his background - Song Hye-rim, a top North Korean actress and Kim's longtime concubine, was a married woman when she met Kim. Such a background could easily tarnish Jong-nam's political platform as a legitimate heir in the deeply feudal society of North Korea, which still emphasizes "pure blood," said Cheong Seong-chang, Inter-Korean Relations Studies Director at the Sejong Institute. Also, Song spent most of her life overseas until she died in 2002, meaning she laid little groundwork for her son within Pyongyang's political circle.

Jong-nam, long reported to have fallen out of Kim's grace, also made international headlines in 2001 when he was caught trying to enter Japan with a fake passport. Back then, he said the purpose of the visit was "visiting Tokyo Disneyland," drawing jeers from Japan and South Korea.

Perhaps the strongest candidate at this point is Kim Jong-chul, Kim's 27-year-old second son, who went back to North Korea after a stint at the international school in Bern, Switzerland. Jong-chul's mother, Koh Young-hee, was a former state dance troupe member before she met Kim, and she played the de facto first lady role for decades before she died in 2004. Unlike Song, who stayed away from Pyongyang for most of her life, Koh actively took part in the North's political scene and tried hard to cement a political platform for her two sons by Kim, including the younger Jong-woon.

According to Cheong, the North Korean military since 2002 has idolized Koh as a "venerable mother," signaling the strong support for Koh and her sons within the armed forces. Other supporters of Jong-chul include Lee Je-kang and Lee Yong-chul, the No. 1 directors of the North's Workers' Party. "Jong-chul used to wear Chicago Bulls jerseys when he was studying in Bern and even showed up at an Eric Clapton concert in Germany in 2006," said Cheong. "He obviously had a lot more exposure to Western culture, meaning he may be more forthcoming to relations with the United States."

But some pointed out that Jong-nam, though he may not be Kim's favorite son, still has a chance to grab the much sought-after throne. Kim's younger sister, 62-year-old Kyung-hee, and Jang Sung-taek, Kyung-hee's husband and also a senior member of the Workers' Party, are rumored to be connected to Jong-nam. "We see more reports that Jong-nam, who lives around China, is closely keeping in touch with his aunt in Pyongyang [Kyung-hee]," said Baek Seung-joo, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses. "Koh died in 2004 but Kyung-hee still remains at the top crust of North Korea's political hierarchy, meaning she has the leverage to support Jong-nam," he said. Lee Kyo-duk, research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, also said it is "premature" to conclude Jong-nam is completely out of the race. (Source: Joongang Ilbo.)

'Workers' Party Will Control Post-Kim Jong-il Regime' (Sep 2008) The post-Kim Jong-il regime in North Korea is likely to be dominated by senior members of the communist Workers' Party, not by a committee of military officials as some analysts have predicted, according to a former secretary of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party on 16 Sep. Hwang Jang-yop, 85, who defected to South Korea in 1997, observed that Kim has been keeping a tight rein over senior military personnel ``so it's unlikely that military officers would try to control the regime. Kim has been keeping a close rein on officers at the brigadier level and above. These military officers don't have much complaint against the regime," the Yonhap News Agency reported.

Commenting on the North Korean leader's possible succession plan, Hwang said Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 37, is the most likely candidate to take over the top leadership. ``He has the backing from officials in Beijing," said Hwang, adding that ``he also has the support from Chang Sung-taek," Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law and an influential figure in Kim's inner circle.

The former communist party secretary also said that even if Kim Jong-il dies or is incapacitated, ``that would not lead to the regime's collapse." ``Kim's subordinates already oversee the regime and it's in their interest to keep the government going. His death would not result in a political chaos or a rebellion. They will bring in a second hereditary transfer of power," he said. Hwang also observed that North Korea could follow China's model of market economic reform. ``Beijing may agree to this type of reform in the North but that would be possible only after Kim's death." Hwang is the highest-ranking North Korean ever to defect to South Korea. Hwang was one of the architects behind the North Korean regime's philosophy of self-reliance. (Source: Korea Times.)

Hyon Emerging as Potential Successor to Kim Jong Il (Sep 2008) Close aides to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il are under closer scrutiny in the wake of the reclusive leader’s alleged health problems. One of them is General Hyon Chol Hae of the (North) Korean People’s Army, who frequently accompanies Kim at public events. A South Korean Unification Ministry analysis on North Korean news reports released yesterday said Hyon has been seen with Kim at the leader’s public appearances over the past two years. Hyon appeared 42 times with Kim in 2006, 30 last year and 32 this year until Kim disappeared from the public eye Aug. 14. Hyon’s closeness to Kim is fueling speculation over his role and influence in the North’s power elite.

North Korean media has reported Kim stressing his state goals to his people while visiting places across the country. Kim has also had his close confidants follow him to induce a loyalty competition. The supreme leader’s hands-on guidance and inspection of his “military-first” policy and economic reconstruction plans by visiting military units and economic facilities are a unique way that the North Korean government rules the impoverished country. Kim made 75 public appearances this year until he allegedly collapsed from a stroke. He made 42 visits to military facilities and 19 to economic facilities and traveled abroad five times. Since North Korea increased its propaganda campaign against South Korea at the end of March, he has frequently visited military units. Twenty-eight high-ranking officials accompanied Kim this year, including Hyon; General Ri Myong Su (29 times); Kim Ki Nam, secretary of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party (22); Pak Nam Gi, director of the committee (10); Kim Kyok Sik, chief of the general staff of the Korean People’s Army (seven); and Pak Do Chun, secretary of the party’s committee in Chagang Province (seven). Ri and Hyon have been with the North Korean leader since 2006. Kim Ki Nam has made frequent appearances with Kim Jong Il since last year.

According a 2007 ministry report on North Korea’s leading figures, Hyon is deputy director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army and senior member of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party. He is also a member of the North Korean parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly. Born in 1934, Hyon graduated from Mangyongdae Revolutionary School and Kim Il Sung University and later studied a technical college in Romania. He escorted Kim Il Sung, then supreme commander of the North Korean People’s Army, in the Korean War. Known to be reserved, Hyon is reportedly deeply loyal to Kim Jong Il. He is also said to exert his strong leadership over elites in the military. For this reason, the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul says Hyon is the likely candidate to succeed Kim if the North Korean leader falls ill or dies. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

U.S. Intelligence: N.K. Leader`s Brother-in-law to Take Over (Sep 2008) U.S. intelligence says Jang Song Taek, the brother-in-law of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, will take over if Kim falls seriously ill or dies, sources in Seoul and Washington said yesterday. U.S. intelligence analyzed who will replace Kim and if North Korea can maintain political stability under three scenarios: Kim has physical instead of mental problems; Kim cannot recover consciousness for a long time; and his death.

A report on this was sent to the South Korean presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae, National Intelligence Service and other security agencies via the South Korean Embassy in Washington. One diplomat said, “U.S. intelligence says Kim’s brother-in-law Jang Song Taek and Kim Ok, a senior member of the National Defense Commission who is considered Kim Jong Il’s de facto wife, will take over if Kim Jong Il has only physical disabilities.” No new leaders will come to power as long as Kim Jong Il is alive even if he cannot recover consciousness for a long time, the report said. Intense competition among political groups is also expected to complicate the process of leadership succession and raise uncertainty.

A group of political leaders could share leadership but Jang, who has close ties with senior military officials, is likely to hold real power if Kim Jong Il dies. While visiting London, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last Thursday that Washington has closely watched developments in North Korea, and that all of the North’s neighbors are concerned over instability since a collapse could spark a flood of refugees. Seoul might believe that the U.S. suggestion of three scenarios is evidence that Washington has yet to obtain accurate information on Kim Jong Il’s health. South Korea, however, is expected to consider the three scenarios to prepare itself for contingencies. The U.S. Congress will summon officials from departments dealing with North Korea and hold a hearing on possible developments and responses if Kim is confirmed to be ill. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

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N. Korea slams Seoul's decision to organize N.K. human rights panel (Sep 2008) Pyongyang blasted South Korea for its decision to create a special panel on North Korean human rights, calling the move an "unpardonable provocation." "We solemnly denounce the anti-DPRK human rights fuss by the Lee Myung-bak Group, labeling it as a vicious profanity of our dignity and system and another unpardonable provocation toward us," the Democratic Front for the Reunification of the Fatherland said in a statement on 28 Sep. The statement, carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), came five days after the South's National Human Rights Commission took on a politically sensitive issue by launching a special subcommittee dedicated to examining human rights conditions in the North. (SITE NOTE: Such a big change from Roh Moo-hyun's NHRC-K stance that played blind to the North's human rights violations.) (Source: Yonhap News.)

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`Liberal Gov`ts Gave W8.38 Bln to North Korea` (Sep 2008) The liberal Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations between 1998 and last year gave 8.38 trillion won to North Korea in aid and loans, according to a report released by a ruling party lawmaker yesterday. Taking office in February 2003 after the second North Korean nuclear crisis emerged in September 2002,

Roh doled out 5.68 trillion won to Pyongyang over his five-year term, double that of his predecessor Kim (2.70 trillion won). Ruling Grand National Party lawmaker Jin Yeong announced this in an analysis of data submitted by the Unification Ministry and the Export-Import Bank of Korea. Kim and Roh gave to North Korea 2.4 trillion won for building light-water reactors and in food aid; 2.5 trillion won to pin the price of rice aid to that of the global market; 2.8 trillion won for other aid including fertilizer; and 696 billion won in aid from advocacy groups and provincial governments.

In 2003, South Korean aid to the North reached a high of 1.56 trillion won. Then after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il declared that his country had gone nuclear in 2005, the Roh administration sent 1.48 trillion won to the North. Jin said, "South Korea gave a loan with rice first in 2000. Payments on the loan are deferred for 10 years. Thus, we are to receive the first repayment installment in 2010. But most of the 2.4 trillion won in loans seem irrecoverable."

PricewaterhouseCoopers Korea audited the fiscal 2007 accounts of Seoul`s inter-Korean cooperation funds, saying, "Considering the characteristics of the North Korean government, grave uncertainty exists over the possibility of redeeming the loans given to the regime. The ultimate outcome depends heavily on the conditions around the Korean Peninsula."

Since President Lee Myung-bak took office this year, exchanges between the two Koreas have been rare. Still, aid to the light-water reactor and the Gaesong industrial complex projects and civilian donations have continued, amounting to a combined 211.3 billion won. The Kim Young-sam administration (1993-1998) gave 226.6 billion won to the North in humanitarian aid (207 billion won) and civilian donations (19.6 billion won). (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

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S. Korean groups resume visits to N. Korea following tourist's death (Sep 2008) South Korea began allowing liberal civic groups to resume sending large-scale delegations to North Korea some two months after the shooting death of a tourist in the North, amid worsening ties with Pyongyang and increasing uncertainty over the health of the North's leader and his state's nuclear ambitions. A group of 15 activists, advocates of the inter-Korean summit agreement of 2000, left for Pyongyang early Tuesday with permission from Seoul. They will discuss ways to enhance exchanges with their northern counterparts in Pyongyang, officials said. The group followed two other left-leaning South Korean organizations who also received government permission to visit North Korea in recent days.

On Saturday, the Korean Sharing Movement, a Seoul-based charity group, and the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, a militant arm of the country's two umbrella labor groups, sent delegations to Pyongyang. On Monday, a 96-member delegation of the Catholic Priests' Association for Justice flew into Pyongyang to hold a special mass.

South Korea suspended tours to Mount Geumgang after Park Wang-ja, a 53-year-old housewife from Seoul, was shot dead by a North Korean soldier while vacationing in the mountain resort. The North claims she strayed into a restricted zone on the North's east coast. Two months after the incident and North Korea remained unchanged in its attitude, continuing to refuse Seoul's request to help uncover facts behind the shooting. In response, Seoul asked civic and non-governmental organizations to call off visits to other sites in the North, citing negative public opinion among South Koreans towards the communist neighbor.

Analysts say the recent decision to allow visits to the North come as Seoul apparently feels the need to prevent ties with Pyongyang from worsening. "The government appears to be taking it into account that if inter-Korean relations deteriorate further, that will only provide cause for North Korea to arm itself with nuclear weapons," a North Korea expert said requesting anonymity. "Seoul currently has no leverage in resolving the nuclear crisis due to worsening ties with North Korea," the expert said.

In a related move, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Monday again urged Pyongyang to resume reconciliatory talks, saying he respects the spirit of all inter-Korean agreements, including the two summit accords. Lee's remark, made during a presidential panel meeting on reunification policy, is seen as a further softening of his initial position towards Pyongyang's demand that he respect and implement the two accords. Relations have chilled since Lee took office in late February, vowing to take a tougher stance toward Pyongyang over its human rights record and its nuclear activities, among other issues. The death of the South Korean tourist also increased tensions.

Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for Seoul's Unification Ministry, said Seoul granted permission to the recent trips as the country is recovering from the shock of the shooting death. He said the government will positively consider future requests by additional groups to visit North Korea. Eight more groups hope to send delegations of around 100 members each, he said. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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October 2008

Latest U.S. grain shipment to arrive in N.K. in Nov (Oct 2008) The latest food aid from the United States to North Korea, comprising 25,000 tons of corn and other grains, is scheduled to arrive in the communist state next month, a U.S. radio station reported on 3 Oct. The Mary-Ann Hudson, a U.S. cargo vessel which will carry 20,000 tons of corn and 5,000 tons of beans, is scheduled to depart from a port in Virginia next Thursday and arrive at North Korea's western port of Nampo, Radio Free Asia reported, citing an unnamed source close to the matter. (Source: < a href=http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2008/10/03/0401000000AEN20081003001200320.HTML>Yonhap News.)

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U.N. agencies to assess N. Korea's harvests for first time in 4 years: report (Oct 2008) The U.N.'s food agencies plan to send their experts to North Korea for the first time in four years to examine fall harvests and estimate needs for external assistance, a report said on 3 Oct. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) have made joint yearly assessments of crops and food supplies in North Korea since 1995, but activity was suspended in 2004 as Pyongyang demanded international non-governmental organizations scale down their operations. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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November 2008

N.Korea Threatens to Cut Ties with South (Nov 2008) North Korea on Wednesday threatened to restrict and shut all overland passage through the military demarcation line, refuse nuclear sampling, and shut the Red Cross liaison office and all direct telephone lines between the South and the North. The gamble could jeopardize six-party nuclear talks which were expected this year and shut down the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex. The North Korean military warned it will “strictly restrict and cut off all overland passage" between the two Koreas. The message, to South Korean military authorities, came “upon authorization,” meaning by order of leader Kim Jong-il.

Gen. Kim Yong-chol, head of the policy planning office of the North Korean National Defense Commission, the chief delegate to the inter-Korean generals’ talks, said, "Despite our repeated warning, the confrontational policy against North Korea by the South Korean puppet authorities, including their military is going beyond the dangerous level.” -- an apparent reference to propaganda leaflets dropped by South Korean civic groups. "Inter-Korean relations stand at a crossroads between existence and total severance," he added. (SITE NOTE: The CEOs of companies at Kaesong met with the Unification Minister to attempt to convince him to stop the balloons to the North.)

It appears operation of the Kaesong Industrial Complex or tours to city of Kaesong has not yet been suspended. However, it seems highly likely that the complex will be closed unless the South Korean government accepts the North's demand for complete implementation of the June 15, 2000 Joint Declaration and the Oct. 4, 2007 Summit Declaration. In a luncheon meeting with chief editorial writers from major newspapers, President Lee Myung-bak was quoted by Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Lee Dong-kwan as commenting, "Waiting can sometimes be a strategy." In a statement, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said, "It's a shame. If border is closed, it will have negative effects on the efforts to improve inter-Korean relations." (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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Activists take steps to extend leaflets' reach (Nov 2008) At 8:40 a.m. on Nov. 6, a group of North Korean military officials, led by Lieutenant General Kim Young-chul, barged into the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea without prior notice. Kim, who is also in charge of senior-level military talks with the South, instantly brought up an issue that has plagued inter-Korean ties for months. “We know they [South Korea’s conservative civic groups] have sent 100,000 pira flyers yesterday,” he said in a stern voice, referring to the anti-regime leaflets that South Korean civic groups have been sending across the border to the North carried by large balloons. “They can’t do this. There will be consequences soon.”

Indeed, the warning became reality in less than a week, as Pyongyang announced on Nov. 12 a plan to put tougher restrictions on travel through inter-Korean borders beginning next month. But why did Pyongyang show such an intense response to the leafletting that would seem to have no real impact on the iron-curtained country? Some experts suspect the North Korean regime is trying to get a tighter grip on its people amid rampant speculation that its Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il, is suffering serious health problems.

For whatever reason, the leaflets are getting under Pyongyang’s skin. For decades the two Koreas have sent hostile propaganda to each other across the border. But the South Korean civic groups are now armed with better technology and more sophisticated messages produced by North Korean refugees here who know what buttons to push to unsettle the North. For instance, the civic groups in the past used to hang several pieces of paper on small balloons, in hopes that they would fall to the ground when the balloons burst in the air.

But now, they rig up balloons up to 12 meters long out of thick vinyl sheets and fill the balloon with hydrogen. Each vinyl balloon, costing about 120,000 won ($80), can carry up to 60,000 leaflets the size of a postcard or up to 10,000 leaflets the size of an A4 sheet of paper. “We replaced the paper leaflets with vinyl leaflets to reduce their weight and prevent them from being damaged by precipitation,” said Lee Min-bok, who leads the North Korea Christian Association here. Lee and the group members even equip the balloons with a mechanical gizmo that shoots the leaflets out at various times, increasing the chances that some will be picked up by North Korean citizens.

Not only are the leaflets being more widely dispersed, but their messages are becoming bolder than ever in order to provoke the North Korean public. Here are examples of such messages: “Jung Joo-young, a poor country boy, became a big company owner, and Lee Myung-bak, who used to be a trash man when he was young, has become the president. Park Chung Hee and Roh Moo-hyun became presidents even though they had relatives who were senior members of a communist guerrilla group,” said one message. “So the South is different from the North, which discriminates against people based on their family backgrounds.”

Another leaflet also touched one of the most sensitive and painful issues in the impoverished country suffering from chronic food shortages - food. “Did you see the candlelight vigils where South Koreans pledged not to eat U.S. beef? South Koreans try to avoid eating meat and eggs since the food will make them fat.” Another said: “You go to Russia to work as lumberjacks and coal miners. But people in mighty Russia only wish to come to South Korea to make money,” it said. More than 100,000 pieces of such pira made their way to the North yesterday as the civic groups continued their leaflet barrage despite repeated requests from the Seoul government that they stop.

But Park Sang-hak, the leader of Fighters for Free North Korea, said the civic group leaders will soon meet together to discuss their operations, indicating they may reconsider the practice in the face of an outcry from local companies operating in Kaesong. (Source: Joongang Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: 'There will be consequence soon,' said North's military officials' This is the reason the ROK government has taken the group to court to stop the balloons. However, it may only be a public show to assuage the North. Families of South Koreans abducted by North Korea continued to send balloons carrying anti-communist flyers near the inter-Korean border on 20 Nov, despite the government's warning a day earlier. Ten representatives of the families launched 100,000 leaflets attached to ten balloons, shouting, "Release the abductees!" The balloons were sent from Wolgotmyeon in the city of Gimpo, west of Seoul, In a written statement printed on the leaflets, the families demanded the release of 487 South Korean abductees, including 436 fishermen. The leaflets also included recent news reports speculating that North Korean Kim Jong-il suffered a serious illness. (Source: Yonhap News.))

Activists to Stop Distributing Flyers -- Then Change Story (Nov 2008) South Korean activists said Tuesday they will suspend sending propaganda leaflets over the border into North Korea for the time being. The decision came after North Korea announced it will from early next week suspend tours to the North Korean border city of Kaesong, halt cross-border rail service and ban South Koreans from coming to the North to protest at Seoul's "confrontational policy" toward Pyongyang. (Source: Yonhap News.) Then three hours later it was reported that South Korean activists said they will continue sending anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets into North Korea, a day after the communist neighbor announced a slew of retaliatory measures against the South's "confrontational" activities.

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Chinese Troops on North Korean Border Increased (Nov 2008) The Chinese military has boosted troop numbers along the border with North Korea since September amid mounting concerns about the health of Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, according to US officials. Beijing has declined to discuss contingency plans with Washington, but the US officials said the Peoples’ Liberation Army has stationed more soldiers on the border to prepare for any possible influx of refugees due to instability, or regime change, in North Korea. (….) One official cautioned that the increase in Chinese troops was not “dramatic”, but he said China was also constructing more fences and installations at key border outposts. Wang Baodong, the Chinese embassy spokesman in Washington, said he was unaware of any increased deployments. [ (Source: Financial Times.)

These reports of Chinese troop increases which are reportedly over 150,000 soldiers comes at a time of mounting speculation about the stability of the North Korean regime due to the poor health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. The Chinese have been taking North Korean regime collapse seriously for years and in recent months signs have been mounting that the US is finally taking North Korean regime collapse seriosly as well. So serious in fact that Defense Secretary Robert Gates brought up contingency planning at the last 40th bilateral Security Consultative Meeting between the two allies.

'China Likely to Manage NK Weapons Upon NK Collapse' (Nov 2008) Germany’s Spiegel news magazine says that should Pyongyang collapse, China will likely enter North Korea to take control of its nuclear weapons. The weekly said on its Internet edition Thursday that China’s entry into the North is one of scenarios that are being discussed in South Korea, the United States and Japan. The report added that in the event of anarchy in the North, China may try to manage the North’s nuclear weapons. It included that Russia has reportedly approved of such a plan. The weekly also said Jang Song-taek, the brother-in-law of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, and Kim Oak, the reclusive leader’s fourth wife, are likely to play influential roles in running the communist state. (Source: KBS Global.)

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UN Commission Passes N.Korea Resolution (Nov 2008) The UN Commission on Human Rights last Friday passed a resolution urging North Korea to improve its human rights record. The resolution will now likely be adopted by a full session of the UN General Assembly next month. AP reported the resolution was passed by a vote of 95 to 24 with 62 abstentions. The resolution expressed "very serious concern" at conditions in North Korea, citing North Korea's harsh treatment of recaptured refugees, restrictions on freedom of religion and thought, and its violations of workers' rights.

It was initiated by 51 nations, including the EU and Japan. South Korea jointed them as a co-sponsor for the first time after abstaining or absenting itself in previous years with the exception of 2006. North Korea immediately rejected the UN resolution. AP quoted deputy chief of North Korea's mission to the UN Pak Dok-hun as saying, "The resolution is a product of a political plot to forcibly change North Korea's system and ideology." He warned South Korea “will pay dearly” for sponsoring the resolution. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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N.Korea Halts Kaesong Tours, Cross-Border Railways (Nov 2008) North Korea on Monday told South Korea it would completely suspend package tours to the North Korean border city of Kaesong, halt regular cross-border railway services, and cut the number of the permanent South Korean personnel at the Kaesong Industrial Complex by half as of Dec. 1. That ends all inter-Korean exchange and cooperation except the industrial park. North Korea notified seven South Korean organizations, such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex management committee, an association of South Korean companies in the industrial park, Hyundai Asan, the operator of tours to Kaesong, and the South Korean chief delegate to the general-grade military talks. The Kaesong tours, which began in December last year, and the regular railway services between Munsan and Kaesong, will be suspended less than a year after they started. At the same time, North Korea demanded that South Korea close down its office for inter-Korean economic cooperation in Kaesong and pull all South Korean officials out.

Pyongyang said the responsibility “rests with South Korean authorities who have denied the June 15 Joint Declaration and the Oct. 4 Declaration and pursued confrontation between North and South." The North separately called a meeting of about 80 managers of South Korean businesses in the industrial park in Kaesong to tell them of its decision.

An emergency meeting in Seoul of security-related ministers chaired by Presidential Chief of Staff Chung Chung-kil agreed to “take necessary measures, giving top priority to the safety of our nationals staying in North Korea,” according to a Unification Ministry spokesman. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

N. Korea to Stop Inter-Korean Tour, Land Passage (Nov 2008) North Korea announced yesterday that it will suspend from Dec. 1 inter-Korea tourism in Gaesong and block overland passage of the border by all South Korean civilian groups and business people. The North will also stop the operation of inter-Korean railways linking South Korea`s Munsan and North Korea`s Pongdong, close the Corp of the Gaesong Industrial Council, and expel all South Korean staff. Pyongyang also urged Seoul by late this month to halve the number of South Koreans working for the Gaesong Industrial District Management Committee and staff at convenience facilities such as restaurants. If North Korea implements these measures as planned, it could mean the suspension of all inter-Korean joint projects except the Gaesong complex.

North Korea sent seven notifications on this to people such as the chairman of the management committee and officials of the (South) Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency and Hyundai Asan Corp. In the notification sent to Hyundai Asan, the operator of tours to Gaesong, the North said, "Staff and vehicles of Hyundai Asan`s partners including Songak Plaza and other builders will be cut around 70 percent."

In a notice sent to companies doing business in the Gaesong complex, Pyongyang said, "Given the economic difficulty of smaller companies, we will allow them to continue their business activities in the district. Key management staff among South Korean workers stationed in the district are exempt from the ban on overland passage of the Military Demarcation Line by South Koreans."

The North apparently made this announcement to suggest the Gaesong complex will keep running as usual. "The border will be shut down, but if certain materials should inevitably get passed through, we`ll thoroughly examine the materials and drivers," it said. North Korea said these measures are the "first" step, adding, "If South Korea declines to follow our measures and causes more trouble, strong legal sanctions will be imposed."

The South Korean government expressed regret over the North`s measures and urged Pyongyang to withdraw them. The Unification Ministry in Seoul said, "Overland passage and economic cooperation projects have contributed to improving inter-Korea relations. North Korea`s measures to limit and suspend this improvement are a significant setback that hurt inter-Korean relations." In a statement, the ministry said, "If the North unilaterally implements its measures, it could harm agreements signed by the two Koreas. We strongly urge North Korea to withdraw its decision." (Souce: Donga Ilbo.)

Kaesong Firms Face Dire Straits (Nov 2008) Most of the South Korean businesses in the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea are in trouble amid a new ice age in inter-Korean relations. The Korea Federation of Small and Medium Business on Sunday released a survey of 63 South Korean businesses operating or planning to operate in the industrial park. Some 60.3 percent of respondents said their situation was “very serious” and 28.6 percent it was “serious." Asked what specific difficulties they have now North Korea has threatened to cut off cross-border traffic 34.9 percent said they were concerned about next year's business plans; 22.9 percent said orders have been canceled or it is hard to win new orders; and 21.1 percent were worried about their credit ratings falling. A majority of 54.1 percent said they had no contingency plans in case tensions persist. Some 26.2 percent said they would give up operations in the Kaesong complex altogether, while 13.1 percent said they would suspend or close some production lines. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

South to withdraw its Kaesong employees (Nov 2008) Seoul on 27 Nov announced a plan to pull out by Nov. 28 all government employees working for the permanent joint office for inter-Korean economic cooperation located in the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea. The move came after Pyongyang warned that it would shut down the office beginning in December in what many fear is a prelude to entirely closing the complex. Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong did little to allay those fears among local companies operating factories in the complex when he said he “cannot rule out the possibility” of a total shutdown. The government workers help South Korean companies operating in the complex and aid in infrastructure construction.

In the Kaesong complex, whose construction began in 2002, North Korean laborers work at factories built by more than 80 South Korean companies seeking to benefit from the North’s cheap labor. But the complex, once hailed as a symbol of inter-Korean economic cooperation, now faces an uncertain future following the announcement by Pyongyang of measures kicking out many South Korean government officials and company managers and making it more difficult for people to pass the inter-Korean border to get to Kaesong.

“We notified the North that six public servants and three contract workers from the joint economic cooperation office will leave Kaesong and return to the South through the inter-Korean military border,” said South Korea’s Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun. Also, the South Korean companies operating factories in the complex told the North who will leave the complex and who will stay. In the latest warning, the North ordered that only a few company workers remain for “essential operations” while the rest will have to leave by the end of November.

“The North said the measure it warned it would implement on Dec. 1 is only the first step of future actions,” Unification Minister Kim said during a question session with National Assembly lawmakers yesterday. He said the possibility of the complex’s shutdown is “remote, but cannot be ruled out.” Kim said 69 of the South Korean companies operating in the Kaesong complex have signed up for a state-backed insurance. A complete shutdown could cause financial damage of up to 3 trillion won ($2 billion). “We are thinking about 200 billion to 250 billion won,” he said, referring to the amount the government will pay the insured companies in case the Kaesong complex is closed. (Source: Joongang Ilbo.)

`N. Korea Violated 7 Inter-Korean Accords` (Nov 2008) North Korea`s decision to sever ties with South Korea violates seven inter-Korean agreements, the Unification Ministry said in a report submitted yesterday to Kwon Young-se, lawmaker of the ruling Grand National Party. Pyongyang has suspended operation of an inter-Korean railway, restricted overland passage across the border, and reduced South Korean personnel at the Gaeseong Industrial Park in Kaesong, North Korea.

Despite that the North urged the South to honor the 2007 inter-Korean summit agreement on the launch of cargo train service between Munsan in South Korea and Pongdong in the North, the suspension of the train service makes implementation of the agreement impossible. The suspension also violates an inter-Korean agreement on railway operation that took effect in August 2005 on safety and convenience guarantees for railway passengers as well as the 2007 inter-Korean declaration and a ministerial agreement in November last year.

The suspension of the tour to Kaesong also goes against an investment guarantee agreement that took effect in Aug. 2003. Moreover, the closure of the Inter-Korean Exchanges and Cooperation Consultation Office violates an agreement on guaranteeing the safety and activities of personnel. The expulsion of South Korean staff breaches three agreements specifying the guarantee of South Koreans’ stay at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and the Mount Kumgang tourist area.

Among the seven violated agreements, four have been ratified by South Korea`s National Assembly. The four govern the tours to Kaesong and Mount Kumgang, inter-Korean road operations, investment guarantees, and exchanges and the consultation office. The four accords are thus legally binding like any other law. “The current situation in which even agreements ratified by parliament are ignored confirms that past inter-Korean relations chased a mirage,” lawmaker Kwon said. “We must skim off the form and normalize ties in a practical manner.” In a recent report, the National Assembly Research Center, the think tank of the National Assembly, also said that in the early stage of drawing up inter-Korean agreements, more emphasis was placed on the agreements themselves rather than details on guaranteeing implementation. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Hyundai Asan to suspend Kaesong tours from 29 Nov A South Korean company operating businesses in North Korea said Thursday it will suspend its sightseeing tours to the North's ancient border city of Kaesong from 29 Nov. The move comes as North Korea vowed on 24 Nov to halt the one-day tour to Kaesong, about 70 kilometers northwest of Seoul, and strictly restrict cross-border passages from next week, in its first retaliatory action against South Korea's hard-line policy toward Pyongyang. With Hyundai Asan forced to suspend the tours to Kaesong, the two cross-border tour projects to North Korea, launched by two liberal predecessors of President Lee Myung-bak over the past decade, will both be closed. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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December 2008

U.S. Halts Food Aid to N.Korea (Dec 2008) Some 400,000 tons of food aid the U.S. government had promised North Korea through the UN World Food Programme this year have been on hold since August because it is impossible to monitor where the food goes, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday. In May, the U.S. announced a plan to give 500,000 tons of food aid -- 400,000 tons through the WFP and 100,000 tons through U.S. NGOs -- to help starving North Koreans. The food aid through the NGOs, including a shipment of 25,000 tons of corn and beans that arrived in the North on Nov. 23, has been underway.

But after 118,270 tons of food aid was delivered until August, further shipments through the WFP have been suspended due to dispute with the North over the distribution monitoring system. "The North Koreans are fulfilling their obligations under agreements with the WFP and the U.S. government," Tony Banbury, Asia director for the WFP, said. "We just no longer have food to deliver, and that is risking the cooperation we have been receiving from the North." U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood was quoted as saying his government "seeks to fully implement the terms of the food aid agreement with North Korea, which included agreed-upon improvements in monitoring and access conditions that are necessary to effectively ensure food is reaching those most in need."

But the paper said U.S. officials disagree with North Korea over the issues of increasing the number of U.S. staff to monitor food distribution and dispatch monitors who can speak Korean. Meanwhile, the WFP and The Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on Monday released a report saying that 8.7 million people, or a third of North Koreans, will suffer a food shortage next year. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

U.S. food aid to arrive in N. Korea this month: report (Dec 2008) The latest U.S. shipment of food aid to Pyongyang will arrive in North Korea this month after a four-month lull, the Voice of America said 17 Dec, quoting a Washington official. Washington in May pledged 500,000 tons of food aid to Pyongyang over the span of a year, and about a quarter of it has been delivered so far. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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U.N. Assembly okays resolution against N. Korean human rights (Dec 2008) The United Nations General Assembly on 19 Dec adopted a resolution condemning North Korea's human rights abuses, officials here said. It marks the fourth consecutive year the 192-member assembly has passed such a resolution, harshly protested by Pyongyang. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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N. Korea willing to return war prisoners in exchange for economic benefits: sources (Dec 2008) North Korea has conveyed to South Korea that it is willing to return some South Korean war prisoners and civilian abductees in exchange for economic benefits, sources said on 22 Dec. Pyongyang made the proposal through various channels, hoping to resume inter-Korean economic exchange projects that have been suspended amid chilled ties this year, the sources well-versed in North Korean issues said on condition of anonymity.

An official of South Korea's defense ministry had said earlier this month that it is considering "incentives" that include financial compensation to North Korea for the return of South Korean soldiers held there since the 1950-53 Korean War. At least 560 former South Korean soldiers are still believed to be held in the communist North since they were taken prisoner during the war, the official said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Pyongyang has strongly denied holding any South Korean prisoners of war, claiming South Korean soldiers now in the North defected voluntarily. A total of 76 South Korean POWs, including six this year, have returned to South Korea since the end of the 1950-53 war, but only after they had first defected from the communist North, according to the defense ministry. The Unification Ministry said it was not aware of the North Korean proposal. "I've not heard of it," Kim Ho-nyoun, the ministry spokesman, said. Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong is currently visiting Beijing to meet with senior Chinese officials on the North Korean nuclear stalemate and frozen inter-Korean relations. (Source: Yonhap News.) (SITE NOTE: Amid a major overhaul of the public sector, the government said on Monday it plans to revise job evaluation rules to allow offices to more easily lay off "incompetent" ranking officials. In a report to President Lee Myung-bak, the Ministry of Public Administration and Security said it will introduce a new job evaluation system next year that will allow the ministry's personnel committee to fire top officials who receive low marks on more than one occasion. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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