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This page is graphically intense with long load times due to photos. However, the photos and narratives by the men who served at Osan Air Base makes the wait well worthwhile. The opinions expressed are those of the author and in no way represents any official statement of Osan AB or the USAF.

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NORTH KOREA MISSILE CRISIS 2006-Present

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RETURN TO MAIN TABLE OF CONTENTS

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE CRISIS

Potential Missile "Test" Launches (May 2006) On 19 May, reports stated that South Korean and U.S. military authorities detected some signs of activity near a missile unit in North Hamkyong Province earlier this week. Korean and American intelligence agencies used high-tech surveillance devices such as spy satellites to capture movements of trailers carrying missile-like objects at a missile test site in Musudan-ri (formerly Daepo-dong), Hwadae-gun, North Hamgyong Province. U.S. spy satellites can differentiate between objects as small as 10 to 15 centimeters from 600 kilometers above ground level, enabling it to survey movements of North Korea's missile activities. "We have been closely watching the North after increased movement of trailers and other materials earlier this week through the Korea-U.S. alliance's KH-11 military satellite," a military official said requesting to remain anonymous.

However, the ROK said they were still analyzing whether North Korea is moving to launch a missile or if it is merely demonstrating against U.S. pressure to give up its nuclear weapons programs. Japan's Kyodo News and public broadcaster NHK, quoting unidentified South Korean sources, said satellite pictures showed there has been activity around a site in northeastern North Korea, such as the movement of trailer trucks carrying what appeared to be missiles. However, a military analyst said, "We cannot confirm that a missile launch is being prepared until North Korea starts putting fuel into the missile," adding that "We see it as North Korea's challenge against pressure asserted by the U.S." North Korea had issued a memorandum in March last year that stated, "We are not obliged to withhold the launching of missiles," leading to speculations that North Korea may be trying to retract an agreement against the test-firing of missiles. (SITE NOTE: That 90 percent of all North Korean intelligence comes from the US, this response is "political" as the ROK tries to play patty-cake with the North. The analogy is that the North Korea has a gun to my head, but I won't know if his intentions are aggressive or not until he pulls the trigger. Thus I'll just wait and see.)

The ROK Ministry of Defense publicly stated that they were checking on the "veracity" of the reports and has played down its significance. South Korea's Defense Ministry said that it was monitoring the situation closely and trying to verify the facts through several channels. Though in the middle of launch preparations, it was uncertain if there would be a launch. ``We are trying to confirm the report's authenticity, but so far I don't believe it is highly trustworthy,'' a senior ministry official said, asking not to be named. (SITE NOTE: If the report supposedly came through the use of THEIR KH-11 military satellite, we wonder why they don't deny that report --.unless the report is true. This same ROK tactic was used on denying the North's counterfeit "supernote" operations -- denying there was proof. The end is to not antagonize the North.)

According to NHK, the missile could be a Taepdong-II ballistic missile that could reach as far as the U.S. mainland, citing unnamed U.S. government sources. The 32-meter-long (115 feet) Taepdong-II has a firing range of more than 6,700 kilometers (4,200 miles), making it capable of hitting Alaska with a light payload, experts say. If the missile was a modified version of the Taepdong-II, it could have a range of 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles), which would cover the entire United States.


Taepodong I & II

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said his government didn't see any imminent danger of a missile launch. ``In fact, we understand that it (the missile) has been brought to the site. But we are not sure about any subsequent moves.''

In 1998, North Korea stunned the region by test-firing a long-range Taepdong-I ballistic missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. A Taepdong missile is described as a two or three-stage ballistic missile with an estimated range of up to 4,000 kilometers (2,486 miles). North Korea announced a moratorium on long-range missile tests in 1999 but has since test-fired short-range missiles many times, including two in early March. In testimony to the U.S. Congress in March, Gen. B. B. Bell, USFK commander, said North Korea was believed to be preparing to field a new ballistic missile capable of reaching Okinawa, Guam and probably Alaska.

Tokyo has been in a hurry to bolster its missile defenses ever since and in March hailed the successful testing of an interceptor missile with the United States as part of joint defense research begun in 1999. In December, the Japanese government officially approved a plan to develop a more advanced missile defense system with the United States. (Source: Korea Times and Korea Herald.) (SITE NOTE: What was curious was that the heightened tension comes at a time when the US stated that it might be changing its stance and would consider a change of the armistice to a peace treaty. A missile launch will stiffle any chance of a peace treaty -- and spur on the Japanese preparations for possible preemptive missile strike capabilities (which it is capable of doing very easily) for its own protection. This is suspected as part of the North's brinkmanship strategy. While having talks with the South to ease military tension, North Korea focused on disputing the Yellow Sea boundary and has been preparing in secret to launch a missile. While pretending to be eager to have talks with the South, North Korea is playing a game of brinksmanship in order to survive heavy U.S. pressure, such as economic sanctions, by increasing military tensions. If there is a launch, the US and Japan will act accordingly. China would respond to the North also, because stability on the Korean Peninsula is one of China's major concerns. South Korea, however, seems to continue to support the North with its "look into the veracity of reports" attitude -- the same response to the counterfeit "supernote" issue. It continues to hold high-level military negotiations on measures to ease military tension while North Korea develops nuclear weapons and threatens to fire missiles.)

Imminent Launch??? (June 2006) Pyongyang is in the final stages of launching a Taepdong-2 ballistic missile, the conservative Sankei newspaper reported, citing unnamed government sources. The report did not explain what those final preparations involved. The U.S. military has dispatched a spy plane and the Japanese Defense Agency has sent a destroyer with advanced reconnaissance equipment and an attack aircraft loaded with radar-jamming electronics to gather information, the report said. In Seoul, a senior South Korean intelligence official said his agency knows about the North's preparation of a missile launch through sources other than satellite photos. 'It remains unclear whether North Korea is demonstrating its capability or is really preparing to fire a missile,' the official said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information.

Sankei reported that radio communications intercepted near a missile test-site in northeast North Korea changed in early May, signaling an imminent launch. The newspaper did not elaborate. An advanced version of Taepdong-2, believed to have a range of 9,300 miles, could travel as far as the west coast of the United States, although there are widespread doubts about its reach and accuracy. The North's missile capability is one of the most prominent security concerns in northeast Asia, along with the isolated nation's nuclear program. (Source: Topix.net, Associated Press.)

US says Missile Refueled -- ROK says Missile Not Fueled (June 2006) The New York Times on 19 Jun quoted an unnamed U.S. government official as saying North Korea appears to have completed fueling a long-range ballistic missile, with satellite intelligence suggesting "that booster rockets had been loaded onto a launch pad, and liquid-fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site in North Korea's remote east coast." Warnings that North Korea appears close to test-firing an intercontinental missile are escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula. North Korea appears to have completed injecting liquid fuel into a long-range ballistic missile, the final stage before the launch, intelligence authorities in the U.S. and Korea said. They stated that the missile should either be fired or the fuel removed within 24 hours of fuel injection. All that remains is "the click of a button," a Foreign Ministry official said. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

However, suddenly the ROK government reversed itself stating the missile was not fueled, that it was most likely a satellite launch -- and takes a stance that the US is wrong. Seoul thinks even if a missile is fired, it is not necessarily a military device, and sees reports in the U.S. and Japanese press that claim a launch is imminent as unreliable. The South Korean government said it cannot conclude that liquid fuel has been injected into the rocket, as U.S. reports claim, nor whether the missile carries a warhead or a satellite. Indeed, authorities here say the fact that the missile launch pad is being put up above ground in full view of the spy satellites makes it more likely that the North aims to launch a satellite. (SITE NOTE: This is the original ROK stance that there is no evidence that the North Koreans intended to fire the missile -- but then they also say the same things about the North's counterfeit operations as well. As the intelligence the ROK uses for its decision-making comes from US satellite imagery, we wonder how they come up with their outlook. The ROK reasoning of "above-ground" equates to a "satellite launch" is so incredibly lame that it insults one's intelligence.) (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

But bad weather near Musudanri, North Hamgyong Province where the launch pad is deployed is reportedly making it difficult to conduct an immediate test launch of the Taepodong 2-type missile. "It's likely that weather conditions will remain unfavorable to a test on Monday," a military official said. Washington said it would not sit idle. "We, of course, will take necessary preparatory steps to track any potential activities and to protect ourselves," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. Such "protective steps" are presumed to include intercepting the missile at an early stage with Aegis destroyers in the East Sea. There was no comment as to whether the 7th Fleet Aegis destroyers and Japanese Aegis destroyers were on location in the East Sea.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned if the missile is dropped on Japan, "it will be regarded as an attack." Tokyo says it will refer the matter to the UN Security Council for sanction. Both the U.S. and Japan are publicly discussing sanctions against the North in the event of a missile test, and even a sea blockade. The Pentagon spokesman and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice again referred to any North Korean launch as 'a provocative act.' And Secretary Rice says she has been coordinating possible responses with allies. Secretary Rice says a launch would violate North Korea's own moratorium, and she says maintaining the moratorium is part of the agreement North Korea signed last September to pursue a diplomatic solution to the dispute over its nuclear program. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

The Defense Department says in the absence of any statement by the North Korean government it will not be possible to know whether a widely expected missile launch is a test or an attack. The Pentagon spokesman hinted to reporters that if North Korea launches a missile the United States might use its new missile defense system (MDS). The MDS relies on radars and other systems on the ground and on satellites to detect missile launches and deploy interceptors to shoot them down. The system has had some recent successes, but is not yet fully operational. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: If the Aegis SM3 missiles attempt to shoot down the Taepodong missile and fail, it would be a massive public relations blow to the MDS program. If the Aegis do shoot down the missile and it falls on Japanese land, what then? Is the North Koreans at fault for an attack on Japan? Given the options for the US-Japan, there is also the option of simply letting the missile fly. However, once the missile overflies Japanese territory, then what? Japan stated it would go to the UN, but there are other more terrifying options that enter the picture. Whatever happens, it will be messy.)

Japan now appears very likely to accelerate work on implementing recently enhanced security arrangements with the US and bilateral cooperation on a missile defense system. In April 1996, then prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and then US president Bill Clinton issued a joint security declaration in Tokyo reaffirming the importance of the bilateral security alliance in the post-Cold War era. The next year, Japan and the US adopted new defense cooperation guidelines to flesh out the declaration.

Beginning in May 1999, Japan set about enacting laws needed to put these agreements into effect. The government initially faced opposition the Diet (Japan's parliament). But the increased sense of crisis among many Japanese over threats posed by North Korea smoothed the way for passage, helped by provocations from Pyongyang.

Heading the list of provocations was the multi-stage Taepodong-1 missile the North sent without warning over Japan into the northern Pacific in August 1998. Also, two North Korean spy ships were spotted in March 1999 in Japanese territorial waters off the Noto Peninsula, central Japan. In December 2001, a North Korean spy ship blew itself up and sank after a fire fight with Japan Coast Guard patrol boats in waters off the Amami Islands, Kagoshima prefecture.

North Korea's 1998 Taepodong-1 missile launch also spurred Tokyo to begin joint technological research with Washington on a missile defense system the following year. In December last year, the Koizumi government formally committed to the joint development of a new sea-based interceptor missile, called the Standard Missile-3 (SM3), as a main pillar of the US-led system. The joint development cost is estimated at a maximum of $2.7 billion, with Japan shouldering up to $1.2 billion and the US paying the rest.

Japan also decided in late 2003 to introduce a defensive system, using existing interceptor missiles, by 2007. Well over 100 Patriot Advanced Capability 3, or PAC3, surface-to-air missiles will be procured by the end of fiscal 2010. PAC3 missiles are intended to hit incoming missiles at an altitude of up to 20 kilometers that have escaped missiles launched from Japanese destroyers.

In July last year, Japan revised the Self-Defense Forces law to allow the Defense Agency chief to order emergency missile interceptions without waiting for approval from the prime minister and the cabinet. Since North Korean missiles would reach Japanese territory in about 10 minutes, the defense chief could not afford to follow normal procedures.

On June 23, Japan and the US signed an agreement to formally begin the joint development of an advanced SM3. And recently, the Bush administration reportedly notified Tokyo that it would deploy PAC3 missiles at a base in Okinawa by year's end. The deployment will be the first time the surface-to-air missiles have been installed to defend US forces in Japan from possible North Korean missile attacks.

On June 22, a US Navy ship intercepted a medium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program. The US said the test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. The Japanese destroyer Kirishima practiced tracking the target, marking the first time that a Japanese Aegis destroyer had participated in a US interception test. (Source: Asia Times.)

Roh Moo-hyun Snubbed (June 2006) When the missile issue reached a critical stage, Bush called the leaders of Japan, Russia, and China. He neglected to phone South Korean president Roh Moo Hyun, though South Korea is a key ally in the region. The two presidents haven't talked by phone for nearly a year even though, in addition to the missile crisis, the two countries are in the midst of a major restructuring of the military alliance and a proposed free trade agreement. A summit in Washington was hastily patched together for September, but Bush will not likely escort the South Korean leader to Graceland as he did for Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi. The harshest blow that the Bush administration can strike against the ROK government it doesn't particularly like is to withhold any support for South Korea's policy of engaging the North.

At the same time, the launch preparations came just before the United States conducted one of its largest military exercises in the Asia-Pacific in decades. "Valiant Shield," which had been months in planning, brought together three aircraft carriers, 30 ships, 280 aircraft, and 22,000 troops for five days of maneuvers. More critically, China for the first time had observer status for the exercises. From Pyongyang's point of view, it's bad enough that Japan, South Korea, and the United States all test their toys together. But when they invited China to the playground as well ­- even in the interests of overall conflict management ­- don't expect North Korea to sit quietly on the sidelines. (Source: http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0652Feffer.html.)

North Korea fires Missiles (July 2006) On 5 July North Korea test-fired at least six missiles over the Sea of Japan, including a Taepodong-2 intercontinental missile that apparently failed or was aborted 42 seconds after it was launched. The launches took place over more than four hours. A seventh missile was launched some 12 hours later. At least six missiles were launched early in the morning and a seventh some 12 hours later, officials in Japan and the ROK said. Russia said the DPRK fired 10 missiles, but the report from a senior general could not be immediately confirmed.

The Taepodong-2 was launched in a northern launch site. Further south, the North fired Scud-C and Rodong missiles. Six missiles, of which two are said to be short-range, fell into the East Sea between North Korea and Japan. The missiles that the North fired from southern sites appeared to be a mix of two short-range Scud-C missiles and four intermediate-range Rodong missiles, of the kind that the North has sold to Iran, Pakistan and other nations.

(SITE NOTE: Though not publicly stated, the impression is that North Korea used the tests to show that it had the power to attack Japan at will since the Rodong missile "tested" has the ability to reach anywhere in Japan. The fact that it was a mass of missiles also made it obvious to the Japanese that the North was sending its message directly to the Japanese public -- but also indirectly reminding its "brother" that it could also be a target. Kim Jong Il is not only trying to get the attention of the international community, he is reminding the North Korean military that he has their interests at heart. North Korea is still under a "military-first" regime. This is a dangerous game.)

While the test itself was a sign of North Korea's defiance of the United States, for the administration, the outcome was as favorable as officials could have hoped for: the North's capacity was called into question, and the North's enigmatic leader, Kim Jong Il, has now put himself at odds with the two countries that have provided him aid, China and South Korea. However, this time China may agree to take up the issue because it must be aware of the seriousness of the situation and because of its position as the chair of the six-party nuclear talks. But Beijing's support for sanctions appears unlikely. Among the participant countries in the talks, China, Russia and South Korea have advocated a softer approach to Pyongyang, while the US and Japan have taken a harder line.China and Russia appear unlikely to agree to economic sanctions against Pyongyang despite the tests, thus nullifying the threats of international sanctions by Japan and the US.

In 1999, a year after testing a Taepodong long-range rocket and failing to put an intended satellite into orbit, Kim Jong Il declared a moratorium on all missile testing. North Korea was offered an economic "carrot" package to advance a deal that would have traded its missile program for a package of various goodies. This followed the 2002 moratorium extension. However, since the Bush administration never followed up on this initiative and since rocket launches do NOT violate any international agreements, Pyongyang's decision to abandon its moratorium came as no surprise.


Japan-North Korea (Kagoshima) (Apr 2003)

The launching also makes it difficult for the South Koreans to continue their policy of providing aid and investment to the North, a program that has caused deep rifts with Washington. South Korea expressed ``profound regrets'' at the North's ``unwise act'' that would have negative consequences, saying that it would decide how to respond to the provocation through close consultations with neighboring countries. North Korea watchers in Seoul predicted that the deterioration of the security situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula and a turndown in inter-Korean relations would be inevitable. (Source: Korea Times.)

As expected, the ROK citizenry reacted according to their political bent. While some urge the government to change its North-friendly policies, others say that although the North deserves criticism, the government's pursuit of a spirit of co-existence and inter-Korean cooperation should not be shaken. ROK's business community voiced concerns that the launches of missiles by the DPRK could affect ongoing inter-Korean economic cooperation, but said their impact would not be big enough to change the overall course. The ROK government urged its allies to cope with the DPRK's latest missile launches in a cool-headed manner, questioning the usefulness of adopting a heavy-handed approach to the state. The security policy team at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said that the DPRK's move was politically motivated, thus requiring a political and diplomatic response.

Immediately, the United States and Japan condemned the launches. Though the Taepdong missile failure provided the North with information as it will help them diagnose what went wrong with the liquid-fueled rocket. Just hours after North Korea's provocative series of missile launches, Japan has reacted by banning the docking of the Mangyongbyon-92, a ferry that shuttles between Wonson in North Korea and Niigata, and which is the main direct link between the two countries. Additional Japanese sanctions -- including economic and financial sactions -- are in the pipeline. (Source: Asia Times.) (SITE NOTE: In 2004, Japan revised the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law to allow the government to halt trade and block cash remittances to North Korea - or to any other country, without a UN resolution. Japan also enacted a law that year that authorizes the government to ban the docking of North Korean ships, or ships that have visited North Korea, at Japanese ports. The Mangyongbyon-92 ferry had been widely considered to be among the most likely targets.)

Pyongyang has often warned that economic sanctions would be tantamount to a "declaration of war". To be sure, North Korea would suffer if Japan went that far. But the impact of the Japanese punishment would be limited unless other nations, especially China and South Korea, join in the sanctions.

Also on 5 Jul, the United Nations Security Council held an emergency, closed meeting to discuss the issue, after a request to do so by Japan's ambassador to the UN, Kenzo Oshima. The request followed an emergency meeting of Japan's national security council, convened by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. (Source: Korea Times.) Japan, backed by the US and Britain prepared a resolution demanding that nations withhold all funds, goods and technology that could be used for the DPRK's missile program. But Russia said it opposed sanctions and would prefer a statement instead of a resolution as the outcome of the meeting. (Reuters) Even before the missile tests, Japan and the US reportedly had already begun discussions on a prospective Security Council resolution harshly condemning such action. Foreign Minister Aso said recently that it would be "inevitable" for the Security Council to consider imposing sanctions on Pyongyang if a launch went ahead.

THIS MISSILE FIRING IS NOT A STRATEGIC ISSUE -- IT IS A POLITICAL ISSUE. The actual missile firings were really insignificant as there were givens before the missile launch. (1) The North will NOT attack Japan; (2) the US will NOT go to war over these "tests"; (3) China will veto any Article 7 military sanctions at the UN; and (4) South Korea will continue to render aid to the North as long as Roh is in office. The firings allowed the USFK to rub the missile reach in the face of the Roh administration to taunt them that the missile threat is real. The firings allowed the US and Japan to increase sanctions and further isolate the North. The firings allowed the North to intimidate both the South and Japan in showing they possessed missiles capable of reaching into their homelands -- without a provocative act.

The missile firings is a diplomatic GAME of one-upsmanship to apply leverage. The sanctions against the North that are hurting the North are already in place. The world will NOT sign off on a resolution that allows the UN to be drawn into a shooting war -- with all the other shooting wars going on at the time. Thus the only thing will be a "toothless" resolution that condemns the North's actions, but will NOT allow a military solution to the problem.

SITE NOTE: The following was my post on Lost Nomad blog over this incident:

Reason for firing: North had nothing to lose and everything to gain.

1) Threats of Sanctions: All talk without teeth. The US, Japan (backed by England) can't make internal sanctions work through UN. Russia and China will veto it. North knew this going into the fiasco.

The US is all bark without any bite. The US looks like a toothless tiger… This adds much to the prestige of the North's military-first regime who have just faced off against Japan and US — sort of — and won. The resolution called on all members to not support the North Korean missile programs.

(SITE NOTE: Some people took exception with this view, but everyone knew that the US would NOT go to war over this -- nor could it make its UN military action sanctions stick with the Chinese veto. These people view North Korea as the loser in this fiasco. However, all the US threats of expanded financial sanctions could already have been in place with the counterfeit money issue -- but the US does NOT want to implement them because it would shut down trade with China and Korea. In addition, the influx of aid -- though in smaller amounts -- from China, Russia and South Korea has not ceased. China continues to provide 50 percent of the food aid, while South Korea 30 percent. China continues to provide the North with oil, while the South has continued to commit BILLIONS of dollars in loans and grants. Sanctions will NOT topple the North Korean regime.)

For all the rhetoric about the self-imposed moratorium, the US had best realize that it did NOT deliver on the promised economic package that was tied to the moratorium. The 1999 moratorium — and 2002 moratorium extension — was tied to economic packages that were never realized. As there is no violation of any international treaty in testing missiles, the North was well within its rights to test these missiles — no matter how upsetting it was to its neighbors.

(SITE NOTE: The North realizes that the US will NOT negotiate in good faith. This is a given -- though some people seem to have blinders on to the real situation. Though we are not lovers of the North, we also see the situation for what it is.)

2) Threat to Japanese Reinforced: The Missile Defense System is still not developed and though the big talk the tests have only been 50 percent successful. Insiders think that it would be a 22 percent chance of "my bullet hits your bullet" scenario in a real life face off. 22 Jun the Japanese signed on for the SM-3 upgrades and will have the US PAC-3 in place by end of year…but the Japanese people need to know the fear that the North can hit them in their sleep. If I read the reports right, two missiles fired were short-range SCUD-Cs, while four were intermediate range Rodongs.

(SITE NOTE: In July 2006, the announcement that PAC-3 missiles would be set up in Okinawa and elsewhere in Japan was justified by this launch. The only thing that Japanese protestors could do was declare their cities "NO WAR ZONES" -- declaring themselves neutral -- a meaningless tactic as only the Japanese government can make this declaration.)

3) Threat to South Reinforced: Though there is the ongoing "you are my brother" routine between North and South, the idea that if the South stops giving the North blackmail money, it could turn the weapons on the South and again threaten to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire." Underlying all the b.s., the SCUD-C launches reinforce this point.

(SITE NOTE: Editiorial comment following my statement: "Pyongyang launched seven missiles on July 5. Six of them, except Taepodong-2, were either Scuds with a range of 300-500km, or Rodong, with 1,200-1,500km range. In particular, according to the South Korean military authorities, the Scud, along with the long-range guided projectiles dispatched near the truce line, is the most threatening missile to the South with its range that can reach anywhere in the South. North Korea is believed to have produced or possess more than 600 Scuds. In addition, the Scud can carry chemical warheads as well as conventional ones, empowering it to destroy South's major strategic camps or densely populated areas. So experts view that Pyongyang used mainly Scuds and Rodongs in the test to threaten South Korea with mid-and-long range missiles that can reach the South." (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Gen. B.B. Bell immediately latched upon this item and spoke to the US Congress of the threat. The Roh administration was outraged that the USFK would interpret this in this way -- calling it an over-reaction. But the point is that this launch became a POLITICAL tool of a "perceived threat.")

4) Test Results: Even with the failure, the North gained knowledge from the failure and can improve on the design. With no fear of reprisal, why not go ahead with the tests?

(SITE NOTE: Some say that following their current rate of progress it should be 160 years before they have an operational missile -- noting the poor quality of North Korean technology. However, we can also say their supposed poor technology also gained them nuclear weapons.

Taepodong-2 On 30 Jul, the Japanese government has concluded that the Taepodong-2 missile that North Korea test-fired July 5 exploded in midair within 1.5 kilometers of the launching pad, according to a Kyodo News report. Japan previously estimated the long-range missile flew about 400 kilometers into the sea between Korea and Japan, while South Korea's military said the Taepodong-2 travelled for about 7 minutes after liftoff before it plunged into the East Sea. Tokyo's conclusion that the test was a complete failure has been reached through an in-depth analysis of Japanese and U.S. intelligence reports, Kyodo News said. The midair explosion occurred about 40 seconds after the launch and debris fell almost vertically, the conclusion suggested, according to the report. It also indicated that a booster of the Taepodong-2 failed to separate properly due apparently to an unspecified malfunction that occurred when the booster was activated right after the launch. The findings could enable Japan to release a report on the incident, possibly in early August, the report said. (Source: Yonhap News.)

SCUD-ER Tested??? The USFK reported that the SCUD missiles "may have been" the new SCUD-ER and appeared to be more accurate than the SCUD-C. We don't know how they determined this, but it is interesting how the tone shifted from inaccurate missiles to "threats." Whether a fact or a political lie, the point is that it was made into a political tool to support political objectives. Suddenly the Commander of the USFK was testifying before Congress of the threat -- while the ROK was stumbling and mumbling that it was an "over-reaction." The missile test became a political tool.)

Thus far, the winner of this fiasco is North Korea, with the South Koreans still licking the boots of the North with hog-wash statements that their latest 140 million Nampo port development will be discussed "later." Nothing's changed — only the egg thrown by the North is still running down their faces of Japan and the US.

(SITE NOTE: "Despite the multiple missiles launch of North Korea, the ROK National Red Cross decided to keep sending fertilizer to North Korea. On July 6, 5,000 tons of fertilizer was loaded onto a ship, the Seamaster (a Korean cargo boat of 6,800 tons), which left Ulsan Port on the afternoon of July 7 for Haeju in the North. The fertilizer shipment was the fifteenth to go to the North and was the last share of the promised fertilizer aid of 200,000 tons. The fertilizer was supposed to be shipped to North Korea by June 13, but had been delayed because of the difficulty of finding a ship." (Source: Donga Ilbo.) The Korean government was criticized for its handling of North Korea's large-scale missile test. Critics point out that the government is overemphasizing "careful response" and obsessed with seeking "solutions only through dialogue." President Roh remained silent on the missile tests. Instead, ministerial meetings between the two countries were scheduled to proceed as normal. The strains on the US-Japan relations were obvious. President Roh said an additional 100,000 tons of fertilizer and 500,000 tons of rice would not be sent to the North "until the crisis was over" -- meaning when the heat dies down, we will go back to business as usual.

Some blog commentators took exception with my statement that the US and Japan had "egg ... running down their faces." Though the desired threats of military action under Article 7 of the UN Charter was eliminated, it was a still a minor victory for the US and Japan. The draft of the US-Japan was substituted by the Chinese draft and Resolution 1695 was approved UNANIMOUSLY -- without the Article 7 threat of military action. We admit that the resolution being voted on UNANIMOUSLY was a victory for the US and Japan -- and the resolution did ban member nations from supporting the North Korean missile program. In this case, any sale to Venezuela by the North would be a contravention of the resolution. Yes, it was a success for the US and Japan -- and as the US would never go to war over this issue to start off with, it met their POLITICAL goals.)

(SITE NOTE: The right to give local missile commanders permission to launch missiles in self-defense was granted as the normal procedures would not permit sufficient reaction time also broached this issue. The PAC-3/SM-3 missiles were simply defensive use -- not offensive. A preemptive strike would be an offensive action that would violate the peace constitution intent. The use of the preemptive strike as a "defensive measure" still would have to be debated in the National Assembly. In addition, the coalition government is also made up of a pacifist party which would object to this provision. Preemptive strike capability is an offensive measure and a highly divisive issue.)

The tenuous legal basis for this resolution was that the 2006 tests (as in 1998) "endangered civil aviation and shipping through its failure to provide adequate advance notice without prior notification to the countries in the region." Although the DPRK was allegedly not in compliance with its NPT commitments and IAEA obligations, its withdrawal from the NPT and IAEA have rendered these issues moot from a legal perspective. Linking the DPRK's nuclear weapons program to its missile program is a purely political act by the Security Council as there are no legal restraints on UN member states from developing missiles. The DPRK is legally required to issue notices-to-airmen (NOTAMs) as a signatory to Annex 11 of the Convention on International Civil which contains explicitly international requirements to coordinate such activities well in advance so as "to avoid hazards to civil aircraft and minimize interference with the normal operations of such aircraft." The coordination is specified in Annex 15 and entails establishing dissemination channels to whom DPRK NOTAMS are sent (and from whom the DPRK receives NOTAMS­these are not exactly the same). After the 1998 rocket launch (that like the July 5 firing, failed), the ICAO Council noted that objects fell into the ocean near Sanriku, Japan, and into international airspace through which passes airway A590, the East Asia-North American aviation trunkline over which 180 commercial flights pass per day. It called on all contracting states to comply with the Convention.

The customary practice of states that commandeer international ocean space for short-term military use it to issue warnings called notices-to-mariners (NOTMARs). Under "Navigation Warnings" found in Chapter V, Regulation 4 of the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, the DPRK is obliged to issue NOTMARS having been a member state since 1986. Its failure to do so when it fired a long-range rocket in 1998 led to IMO Resolution A.706(17) and an MSC Circular 893 issued 21 December 1998. Like the ICAO, these noted that objects from the 1998 DPRK rocket launch fell into waters near Japanese coast that contain major shipping lanes and fishing grounds. The Circular called on member governments to attach the greatest importance to safety of navigation and avoid taking any action which might adversely affect shipping engaged in international trade, and strictly comply with the recommendations contained in the foregoing resolution concerning navigational warnings so that operations do not endanger safety of navigation.

However, the NOTMAR requirement appears to be less stringent than with NOTAMs. The United States, for example, sometimes does not issue NOTMARs for the rockets that launch ostensibly secret satellites. Press reports have also mentioned that the DPRK did advise Russia of pending maritime danger zones which seems likely given the fact that some of the shorter-range missiles did splash down inside Russia's 200 mile exclusive economic zone (although outside the designated danger zones indicating that these rockets may not be very accurate!). (Source: Nautilus: Hayes.)

(SITE NOTE: The resolution: "3. Requires all Member States, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, to exercise vigilance and prevent missile and missile-related items, materials, goods and technology being transferred to DPRK's missile or WMD programmes; "4. Requires all Member States, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, to exercise vigilance and prevent the procurement of missiles or missile related-items, materials, goods and technology from the DPRK, and the transfer of any financial resources in relation to DPRK's missile or WMD programmes; (See Resolution.)

This is a major boost to the US attempt to place a financial stranglehold on the DPRK. A major portion of income comes from the sale of the SCUD-Cs overseas. The latest was revealed to be by President Chavez of Venezuela. Other buyers are Iran and a few African countries such as Oman.)

China and Russia, two veto-wielding Council members that strongly opposed earlier drafts of the resolution, both welcomed adoption of the amended measure. Ambassador Wang Guangya of China, North Korea's closest ally, expressed hope that the Council's unanimous action would encourage all parties to act calmly, and continue diplomatic efforts for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

South Korea which did not support any resolution that included the Article 7 provisions for sanctions, was satisfied with the outcome as "an appropriate measure." South Korea expected to resolve various issues on North Korea through dialogue. However, the impact to various programs from Kaesong to the tourism of Mount Kumgang needed to be assessed. The Unification ministry held emergency meetings to review the impacts. (Source: Yonhap News.)

As expected, the North ranted that it would continue its missile tests as its sovereign right. However, to do so would be counterproductive and it would not gain anything. However, it left in suspense what it actually will do.

Roh Silence Over Launches Criticized (July 2006) President Roh Moo-hyun maintained his silence over the row over the handling of the missile launches. He was asleep when the launches took place -- and the the responsible agencies did not opt to wake him up. The case was reported to President Roh at about 5:00 a.m. and the government announced it to the public at 10:10 a.m -- hours after the Japanese and other nations had issued rebukes over the launches. The ROK's belated announcement did not seem to be hard enough to many Korean conservatives. The ROK government stated the situation was "seriously disappointing." When compared with the announcement made by the U.S. and Japan, saying, "We will respond in a quick and decisive way", the ROK statement lacked resolve. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Cheong Wa Dae said the lack of response was rooted in a strategic decision. "President Roh's response to the issue is a result of a hard decision not to exaggerate the security tensions the North's missile launches have created in the eyes of the public," said Suh Choo-suk, the senior presidential secretary for security policy. "North Korea's intention is to inflate the issue, and a cool-headed and reasonable response can be a proper and effective way to thwart that intention." Another official close to the matter said the missile test "gave the U.S. a justification to further isolate North Korea, and Japan to pursue military expansion. It's only natural that we take a different position." The South Korean president's office on 9 Jul accused Japan of making a "fuss" over North Korean missile launches, suggesting Tokyo was contributing to the tense situation. "It is not any good to heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula or aggravate the South-North relations and neither does it help to solve the nuclear issue or the missile issue," said a statement from President Roh Moo-hyun's office. "There is no reason to fuss over this from the break of dawn like Japan, but every reason to do the opposite," the statement said.

It also turned out the ROK was notified by the US of the launches showing the ROK has NO surveillance capability of its own. The ROK military were completely blind to the SCUD and Rodong launches -- giving the impression to the Korean people that the defenders were totally unprepared. Immediately the conservative news papers started to condemn Roh for his handling of the affair.

In response, there was only continued silence from Roh. The opposition GNP launched strong criticism against President Roh on 10 Jul for his ``security insensibility" as Chong Wa Dae defended its coolheaded approach to the DPRK's missile tests on 5 July. But in order to quell criticism of that silence, the Blue House released a statement yesterday which said that the situation was not a national security emergency and that the DPRK wasn't targeting anyone with the missiles. The GNP reacted furiously. "The claim that the missiles were targeting no one is a de facto defense argument for the North," said Lee Jeong-hyeon, vice spokesman of the party. "While remaining silent about the provocation that threatens the people's lives, the Blue House decided to criticize the media and the opposition party instead."

Finally on 12 Jul -- a week after the launches -- Roh broke his silence by stating, "No matter how hard I try, it just eludes my understanding," He said he felt the need to speak about the crisis after a series of high-profile Japanse politicians mentioned the possibility of a "pre-emptive strike" against the DPRK. Mr. Roh said such talk from Japan might "aggravate the situation."

President Roh on 19 Jul expressed concern about intensifying international pressure on North Korea, which he said would "increase unnecessary tensions and confrontation." He also criticized "some of the others" who are raising regional tension levels with confrontational solutions for diffusing the North Korean missile crisis. "The others" are seen to indicate Japan, which has assumed a hard-line stance toward Pyongyang's missile launch earlier this month. "The president made it clear that South Korea will try to solve the North Korean problem through peaceful means and dialogue so as not to aggravate the situation in the aftermath of the U.N. Security Council resolution," said Song Min-soon, the president's top security aide. He added that the president vowed to seek measures for bringing North Korea back to the stalled six-party talks.

Then on 21 Jul the Blue House chief of staff, Lee Byung-wan, slammed Japan, calling its reaction to North Korea's missile launches "truly evil." He labeled Tokyo's talk of a pre-emptive attack on the North's missile facilities as a sign of "militarism and expansionism." Mr. Lee complained that Tokyo was leading the charge to impose international sanctions on Pyongyang.


The Other Non-existent WMDs (Wolverton) (Jun 2003)

North Claims Missile Firings to "Defend" South during Ministerial Meeting (July 2006) The decision to continue with the ministerial meeting between the ROK and DPRK despite the launches irked many -- including Uri Party members. This indicated that though the ROK would continue its rapprochement process at all costs. The ROK said it would "directly challenge" the DPRK about the tests at inter-Korean ministerial talks -- while critics stated that there was no need for the talks at all given the circumstances. Seoul said it would withhold promised aid to the DPRK until the missile crisis is over. However, that decision did not include a delay in the provision of the last promised fertilizer shipment to the DPRK that left port on 8 Jul bound for the DPRK with the last 20,000 tons of that assistance.

North Korea on 12 Jul demanded the South provide it with promised rice aid, apparently oblivious to the international diplomatic tensions it caused by test-firing several missiles only a week ago. The demand came at an inter-Korean ministerial meeting in Busan. North Korea's Senior Cabinet Counselor Kwon Ho-ung in his keynote speech hailed the impoverished country's "Songun" or military-first ideology, which he claimed was helping the South protect its security and benefited "a vast majority" of South Koreans. Kwon Ho-ung said the DPRK's military first policy "makes South Korea safe, and a large number of South Korean people benefit from it." Notable achievements of the Songun policy include Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and missile tests and mass starvation among its people for the sake of arming the military to the teeth. The JoongAng Ilbo reported that the DPRK's chief delegate to inter-Korean talks said that the ROK should be grateful for the DPRK's emphasis on military preparedness. This was the first time the North has named South Koreans among its beneficiaries. As such, it demanded rice and raw materials aid.

Opening the meeting, Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok said the DPRK's missile salvo was destabilizing, and urged Pyongyang to return to the six-nation nuclear talks as soon as possible to settle missile and nuclear-weapons issues through dialogue. Lee Jong-seok in his speech warned things could "get out of control" if the North launches any further missiles. Lee later gave short shrift to Kwon's claims for the Songun policy. "Has anyone in the South asked the North to protect our safety?" he demanded. "North Korea can help us protect our security when it stops launching missiles and dismantles its nuclear program". Lee stated that no aid will be provided until the situation is resolved. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

Aftermath of Missile "Tests": Five-way Talks, Sanctions, Test of New Scud

• DPRK Mobilizes It was reported that just prior to the UNSC vote, the North implemented a wartime mobilization of its military forces and reserves for an "imminent invasion" -- the first time in 13 years and was not broadcast by radio or TV. In March 1993, readiness was increased when North Korea pulled out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. (Source: Asia News.) ROK newspapers on 19 Jul reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il issued a special decree over the weekend ordering his troops to take emergency maneuvers and civilians to stay indoors because a war was imminent. However, the Chosun Ilbo reported that the Unification Ministry denied that the DPRK had ordered done so. The ministry said it had confirmed that Pyongyang only "heightened" its defense posture to alert level ahead of routine Seoul-Washington military exercises.
  
  
• Five-way Talks South Korea and the US on 18 Jul agreed that five-way talks without North Korea would be the best alternative to the six-way talks. South Korea's chief delegate to the nuclear negotiations, Chun Yung-woo, said, "We will not be discussing (at the five-way talks) how to pressure the North, but will discuss how to offer North Korea the incentives pledged in the Joint Statement." The concept of five-way talks first emerged last year, during another hiatus in the nuclear negotiations caused by North Korea's boycott since 2004, but shelved when North Korea returned to the talks. China has been cool to the idea, but as Chun stated it was better to have five-party talks rather none to keep the momentum of the six-party talks going. China is still concerned that the five-party framework will upset the North. The US hoped that China could be persuaded if it were to become chairman of the five-party talks.
  
  As of 19 Jul it was still not clear whether China had made a decision on whether or not to hold a "five-way" meeting as proposed by the United States and South Korea. China had not yet responded to the proposal formulated by South Korean envoy Chun Yung-woo and his US counterpart Christopher Hill who suggested a new format of talks that excludes Pyongyang. (SITE NOTE: In the end, China did not agree to the five-way talks.)
  
  
• Sanctions To Be Increased The United States may take measures to pressure North Korea should the communist regime continue to boycott six-nation nuclear talks. The frozen DPRK accounts of $24 million from the Banco Delta-Asia (BDA) is the main reason the North is boycotting the six-party talks. If proof surfaces of North Korea's suspected counterfeiting, Washington is most likely to expand its investigation into the so-called "rulers' account." The rulers' account, or ruling account, refers to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's main money channel. The funds are divided and deposited in various countries around the world. The total amount is estimated at around $6 billion. In addition, a visiting US Treasury Department official, Stuart Levey, described Washington's policy direction to ROK government policymakers during a ROK visit from 16-18 Jul that including reinstating sanctions lifted in 1999. The ROK officials said the US sanctions Mr. Levey mentioned had been lifted in 1999 by President Bill Clinton as US-DPRK tensions eased. They included trade restrictions and licensing requirements and strict limits on the amount of money US travelers to the DPRK could spend there.
  
  International curtailment of the North's money laundering is being curtailed. The North can no longer make money withdrawals from Vietnam and Mongolia. China recently has frozen the North's accounts in its Macao branch. (NOTE: It was rumored in Aug 2006 that the North had moved its money operations to Singapore.)
  
  JoongAng Ilbo on 20 Jul reported that for 10 months, Washington has enforced a systematic plan to clamp down on cash going into the DPRK. The measures are working, experts say. Nam Sung-wook, a DPRK expert at Korea University, estimated yesterday that the recent measures have led to a 40 percent decline in DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's income. Since the 1980s, Kim Jong-il has regularly collected money from four sources: forged bank notes, arms sales, drug trafficking and money coming from ethnic Koreans living in Japan who acquire money by operating legal gambling casinos there. Mr. Kim used the money to cement his hold on the DPRK elite, such as the military.
  
  Washington was concerned about various projects, referring to the inter-Korean industrial park in Gaeseong and the Mount Geumgang tour. Washington's apprehension over South Korea's various financial projects in North Korea was voiced. The United States said the projects could be abused in the communist regime's programs of weapons of mass destruction. The ROK, however, felt that it was operating within the boundary of the U.N. resolution and legally there were no problems in regard to doing business in Gaeseong. In fact, on 21 Jul the Finance Ministry said it was forging ahead with the Ministry of Planning and Budget on a special credit guarantee program to help companies operating in the Kaesong complex take out guaranteed loans of up to W10 billion ($9.5 million). "We know there have been a variety of controversies over the complex recently, but the government plans to provide a sufficient amount of seed money so that companies working there don't suffer difficulties in securing funds," a ministry official said. Though, the ROK unification minister conceded that the North's trade with other countries, including Japan, amounts to US$4 billion every year, large parts of which could also be said to be "funneled" to develop missiles -- his country would not stop its projects with the North. The government apparently opposes any economic sanctions by Japan or suspension of its trade with North Korea.
  
  Japan was also planning to impose its own economic sanctions on North Korea in early August, a news report said. Associated Press reported on 18 Jul that Japan had begun preparations to impose its own economic sanctions on the DPRK after the hardline regime rejected a UN Security Council resolution condemning its ballistic missile tests. Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said he had instructed officials to prepare measures to ban cash remittances to the DPRK and implement sanctions already called for in the UN resolution. The sanctions should be ready by Aug 2006. However, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said on 19 Jul that Japan would not rush to impose more sanctions on the DPRK, amid reports Tokyo may call for five-party talks on the sidelines of a regional security forum on the DPRK's nuclear ambitions. Koizumi told reporters Wednesday Japan will wait for a further response from the DPRK to a UN Security Council resolution and a Group of Eight summit statement condemning its missile test-launches. (SITE NOTE: The Japanese government had restricted remittances previously and left on mail remittances to the North -- which were monitored. The results showed a dramatic falling off of this source of funds. The other source has been the ships which allegedly smuggle drugs into Japan by dropping off the drugs off-shore prior to landing in Japan. It has yet to be seen if the Japanese will ban all North Korean ships from their waters -- though Japanese naval units have searched North Korean ships in their waters. The ban on the North Korean ferry visits may or not be lifted.)
  
  
• Rumors of a SCUD-ER Test JoongAng Ilbo reported on 18 Jul that some of the Scud missiles touched off by the DPRK among a seven-shot salvo on July 5 appear to be of a new type with longer range, a government official said yesterday. Citing intelligence from Seoul and Washington, the official said the radio signals from those missiles were different from those of a Scud-B or C model or a medium-range Rodong missile. The newer model, called the Scud ER, has an estimated range of 850 kilometers, 528 miles, and improved accuracy over its notoriously wayward predecessor. (SITE NOTE: As this news story did not appear in foreign news sources made this story suspect. The SCUD-ER development had been rumored in the past.)
  
  
• Rumors of Dissention between DPRK-PRC Joongang Ilbo reported on 18 Jul that a diplomatic source in Seoul said that last week, before the resolution was adopted, the DPRK's leader told a US visitor that Beijing was "not to be trusted." Kim Jong Il reportedly told the visitor that he doubted the PRC's willingness to help the DPRK at a "decisive moment." That muttering was probably connected to the visit of a senior delegation from Beijing to Pyongyang last week in a last-ditch effort to head off Security Council action, in which the PRC could have exercised its veto but instead voted for the resolution. (SITE NOTE: Again this story is suspect as it deals with the unsubstantiated report of a "US visitor" and listed as a "muttering".)
  
  Chosun Ilbo reported that Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok said the DPRK should abide by the UN resolution on its missile tests, and that the UN should be strict on how it applies the resolution. He said the UN resolution is about the DPRK's missiles and weapons of mass destruction, and does not prescribe economic sanctions. He said he thinks the council's weapons-related sanctions on Pyongyang should not adversely affect the on-going inter-Korean reconciliation projects, such as the Kaesong Industrial Park and tours to the DPRK's Mt. Kumgang. (SITE NOTE: In other words, the ROK was seeking to go about business-as-usual after the heat dies down. If economic sanctions are enforced by other nations, the entire Kumgang and Kaesong projects may collapse. Resolution 1695 "required all member states, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, to exercise vigilance and prevent missile and missile related items, materials, goods and technology being transferred to (the DPRK's) missile or WMD programs." This did not mention economic sanctions -- though it does cut off a major source of income being the DPRK sale of SCUDs internationally.)

IFANS: North Korea using Chinese technology and Iranian assistance on Missile Development (Aug 2006) North Korea has been working closely with Iran to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, possibly using Chinese technology, and is building large bases to prepare for their deployment, a South Korean state-run think tank has said. North Korea is also building new sites near the demilitarised zone with the South for short-range missiles and is deploying missiles with improved precision that can strike most of Japan, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) said in a report.

"The development of Taepodong-2 is conducted jointly with Iran, and it is possible China's technology is used in the development of the Taepodong-2 engine," said the IFANS report. The collaboration on the long-range Taepodong-2 is part of an international network, including Pakistan, that made it possible for the impoverished North to develop and deploy missiles despite scarce resources and limited testing, the study said. With more than 1,000 missiles of various ranges, North Korea has come to have the world's fourth-largest arsenal.

The Iranian connection in the North's missile programme dates back to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when Pyongyang tested and began shipping its Scud-type missiles to Iran, the report said. The Scud-based arsenal continues to be a threat because, through modification, the weapons "have achieved leaping progress in terms of precision, high mobility and quick firing rates", the IFANS report said.

The North's purchase of out-dated Soviet submarines in the 1990s, with launch and stabilisation systems intact, has raised concern that North Korea might be trying to arm them with tactical missiles, it continued. The North is building a missile command base 30 miles north of the demilitarised zone for as many as 30 mobile launch pads for the Scud-type Hwasong missiles that can hit military and industrial targets deep in the South, IFANS said. (Source: Scotsman.)

North Seeking Missile Purchasers: Pakistan (Aug 2006) The North suffering from sanctions may seek sales of its missiles despite the UN resolution that bars member states from aiding the North's missile program -- including sales. Some experts feel the tests were to convince buyers of the accuracy -- as the SCUD and Nodong missiles all landed within the 30 km by 40 km target area. This offsets claims that the SCUDs were inaccurate weapons. Some experts guess that one purchaser could be Pakistan. Pakistan is the competitor of India. International political scientists are assaying that in order for the United States to contain China, the U.S. is pursuing a strategy of augmenting Japan's military power in Northeast Asia and India's military power in Southwest Asia. Beijing is aware of this U.S. strategy toward China, and therefore it is known to be continuing its friendly relations with North Korea to keep Japan in check in Northeast Asia, and likewise cooperative relations with Pakistan to keep India in check in Southwest Asia. Even if there are purchasers, such as Pakistan or other Middle East countries, it does not mean that missiles can be directly exported. The stumbling block is the performance of the North Korean missiles. If the tests were carried out for the sale of missiles, then another crisis looms: That is, the realization of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Most missiles are carried by ship to the Middle East for sale. There is a growing danger that the PSI will become a reality on the Korean peninsula. (Source: "North Korea's Missile Launches and South Korea's Response" by Moo-jin Yang.)


Can You Hear Me Now? (Heller) (Mar 2003)

IFANS: N Korea constructing new missile bases targeting Japan (Aug 2006) On 4 Aug Japan Today reported that North Korea has been constructing new underground missile bases and silos along its east coast to deploy intermediate-range missiles targeting Japan, according to a report compiled by South Korea's state-funded research institute. "The new bases clustered along the east coastal line, in particular, are short-and medium-range missile bases aiming at Japan and U.S. military installations" on the Japanese archipelago, Yonhap News Agency quoted the report by the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) as saying. About 200 Rodong missiles with ranges of up to 2,200 kilometers and 50 SSN-6 missiles with ranges of 2,500-4,000 km are already deployed in the new bases, the report was quoted as saying. (Source: Crisscross News.)

(SITE NOTE: The SSN-6 are sea-launched weapons that have been converted for use on land. This design was refined into the first successful Soviet subarine-launched ballistic missile with MIRV warhead. This was designated as R-27U (also known as RSM-25), which was designed in 1971-72 and tested in 1972-74. This new missile could carry either three individual warheads or a single heavier warhead.

There were also concerns that submarines were bought from Soviets that had the guidance and launch platforms intact that could be converted for SSN-6 use. As of 2006, none of the subs have been converted.

Some experts are putting out analyses that the launching pad at Anbyeon county in Kangwon province does not point toward Japan. The prediction of the missile's direction, distance, and ultimate ending point can be known through the acute angle of the launching pad. Also, experts have said that the U.S. and Japan know this angle already, but they have not made it clear. In fact, the DPRK direction, distance, and ultimate ending point of the DPRK missiles are far from what the U.S. and Japan have asserted them to be. (Source: "North Korea's Missile Launches and South Korea's Response" by Moo-jin Yang.)

Some 300 members of a faction of the Korean Federation of University Student Councils on on 2 Aug accused the U.S. of misleading the world with claims that North Korea heightened tensions in a peaceful Northeast Asia with its July 5 missile tests. The group, calling itself "an advance team" of the Korean Young Students Alliance to Unify the Fatherland, and made up primarily of KFUSC members, held a launch ceremony and press conference near Gwanghwamun at 10 a.m. "North Korea's missile launches are self-defense measures to protect the country from U.S. schemes to start a war on the peninsula and do not violate any international law," they said. (SITE NOTE: As the foreign minister said when the North mouthed this same sentiment at the Inter-ministerial meeting at Jeju-do after the launches -- "Who asked you to defend us?")

Scurrilous guidelines for the "Seoul National University advance team" posted on the KFUSC website include comments hailing the missile tests. "The U.S. deemed North Korea's launch of a Taepodong 2 missile a failure, but the truth is that the North deliberately shortened the range" of the long-range rocket, which dropped into the sea like a stone 42 seconds after launch. "The North demonstrated its capability to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles without having to fly one 6,000 km near U.S. territory." (SITE NOTE: So much for academic reasoning of Korean college kids.) The advance team then broke up into sub-groups at noon to hand out leaflets depicting U.S. President George W. Bush with blood on his face, targeting movie theaters that showed the blockbuster movie "The Host." "The U.S. had only itself to blame when North Korea test-fired the missiles," the leaflet says. It claims North Korea has "world-class" missile technology and urges the two Koreas to work together in technology development "to join the ranks of global powers."

Members also ripped up the U.S. flag with 300 police looking on. "We concluded they had bought an imitation, not the real one, and did not stop them to avoid unnecessary conflict," a police officer said. (SITE NOTE: An imitation US flag is still a US flag. The ROK law states that even a representation of the flag falls under the statute. For example, if the red white and blue stripes are not 13 in number and the stars are painted say as skulls, then it cannot be deemed a representation.) (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

Missiles with Nuclear Warheads: Future North Korean Export (Aug 2006) According to an article in Asia Times on 17 Aug titled Missiles and madness by Richard M Bennett, an international intelligence and security analyst, North Korea has a massive missile arsenal that may end up as an export item complete nuclear warheads.

The article states that despite its huge conventional military power, everyone knows that it will NOT attack the South as it would be suicide for its million man army. "Pyongyang's forces may be sufficient to achieve some success on the ground in the first week, but after that their limited logistic support combined with ferocious US-led air strikes would have so degraded the offensive capability of the main combat units as to lead to only one conclusion: another military disaster. This time, and more important, it is highly unlikely that there would be a repeat of the Korean War intervention by hundreds of thousands of seasoned Chinese troops pouring across the Yalu River to rescue the North Korean regime from the consequences of its own stupidity." North Korea's conventional armed forces are truly impressive on paper, but significantly probably still lack the logistic support, technological infrastructure and mobility that would make them as effective in war as their sheer weight of numbers might otherwise suggest.

In addition, it will NOT use the nuclear weapons against the South -- or Japan -- as it would be an act of state suicide. The US response would undoubtedly be to turn the whole of North Korea into a radioactive wasteland for generations to come.

The biggest worry is the weapons of mass destruction that the North Korea can produce and SELL to waiting markets in the Middle East. The North produces about 100 missiles a year.


Taepodong I & II

Bennet stated, "It began to make ballistic missiles around 1981, with copies of Russian Scuds purchased originally from Egypt. These became operational as the Hwasong 5 in 1984. There are now 900-1,000 Hwasong-5/6 and Nodong 1/Rodong 1 (improved Scud) and more than 100 medium-range Taepodong 1/Nodong 2 ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads deployed in underground silos or hidden in caves. Within the next couple of years, development of the Taepodong 2/Nodong 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles will be completed and North Korea will gain a genuine strategic deterrent with a range of at least 8,000km, though some observers have suggested as much as 12,000km. This missile was test-fired in July, and despite media speculation that the flight was aborted after just 42 seconds, it now seems likely that it flew for seven minutes and was a significant technical success. (SITE NOTE: This is the first report we have read that the flight lasted longer than 42 seconds. The Japanese made a full-blown study of the Taepodong-2 "test" launch in July 2006 and gloated over this fact of its ill-fated launch.)

He continued, "With a failing economy to support, the temptation must be strong for the Pyongyang regime to use its advanced technology to underpin its survival. ... While such arms are obviously considered vital for defense or even a preemptive strike, the major overriding reason has been financial: such technology is available for export to the highest bidder. Such hard-currency transactions help keep North Korea afloat and the regime in power."

What is bothersome to the US is the buyers of North Korean technology. Bennet stated, "Over the past 20 years or so North Korea has earned substantial revenue from the sale of missiles, and the relevant technology, to a number of states high on Washington's hit-list. Among these are the Nodong to Pakistan as the Ghauri and to Iran as the Shehab 3, while both Syria and Libya received Hwasong-5. It is reported that missile parts and technology have also been exported to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam."

He added, "With such a willing market for its missile technology and the financial advantages gained from the exportation of such weapons, why not offer the secrets of the nuclear bomb as well? With the looming confrontation with the West over Iran's own nuclear program and an economy rich in petrodollars, Tehran would be a prime market for Pyongyang's weapons know-how. Tehran is North Korea's closest ally in the Middle East. This would be the ultimate nightmare scenario for Washington, a determined Iranian enemy secure behind the unexpected deployment of an operational long-range missile system armed with a nuclear warhead."

He went on, "It appears certain that North Korea's nuclear-weapons program has been largely funded by the sale of missiles and other conventional arms to countries around the world. North Korea is believed to have some 120 nuclear weapons, including a small number of hydrogen bombs to go with its growing arsenal of operational long-range ballistic missiles. It has built a considerable capability since the early 1960s with nuclear-research facilities at Yongbyon, Taechon, Pyongyang and Kumho. Significantly for North Korea, it is fortunate to have its own uranium mines, with more than 4 million tonnes of exploitable high-quality uranium." These nuclear weapons -- though not thrown on the table -- is a given by all parties.

He speculated on the potential Chemical and Biological threats. "An advanced chemical and biological warfare program has produced a considerable number of chemical warheads for battlefield missiles, aircraft bombs and artillery shells. These are known to include modern nerve agents. It is believed that a serious attempt has also been made to weaponize anthrax and that a small number of warheads may have been deployed."

More Sanctions (Aug 2006) On 10 Aug Yonhap News reported that the US was considering additional punitive sanctions against North Korea according to visiting U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher "We are going to discuss with the regional leaders here and determine what is appropriate (as a sanction) but we'll make sure that North Korea realizes that if they do launch missiles (again) they will be shot down by the U.S.," Rep. Dana Rohrabacher told Yonhap News Agency in an interview.

The key words were that the US will "shoot down" future missiles -- meaning they will test the joing Missile Defense System (MDS). We are not certain if the USFJ and JSDF have been advised of this Congressional plan. In a related story in the Japan Times, the Japanese confirmed that though the Taepodong-2 missile was inaccurate, the six other missiles were accurate in hitting targets within a 30 mile by 40 mile target area.


Isolation (Plante) (Feb 2005)

New Sanctions Expected (Sep 2006) Ranking South Korean officials in Washington told the Yonhap News Agency that the Bush administration was expected to announce a package of economic sanctions on the North after the planned summit between U.S. President George W. Bush and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun on Sept. 14 in the U.S. capital. However, the new sanctions are expected to center on sales of missiles and weapons of mass destruction following the UN sanctions. The US is looking at reimposing the economic sanctions the US lifted in 1995 and 2000 including a travel ban, a broad trade ban and restrictions on investment and remittances in response to North Korea's missile test on July 5. (Source: Korea Times.)

The US announced that the attempt to block the sale of Missiles from North Korea has been pushed forward by the UN sanctions on the sale of DPRK missiles. The only remaining countries relying on North Korean sales are Syria and Iran. Other countries have said they will no longer purchase weapons from the North.

Australia and Japan Institute Sanctions The International Herald Tribune on 19 Sep reported that Australia and Japan imposed new financial sanctions on the DPRK on 19 Sep, as the US dismissed appeals from the PRC and the ROK for a softer approach and rallied more international pressure on the DPRK to return to nuclear disarmament talks or face a slow wilting of its finances. The initial impact of the actions announced Tuesday will be limited because Australia and Japan have little trade with the DPRK, experts said. But the sanctions were another clear sign that Washington and its allies are intent on tightening a financial noose around the DPRK regime, whose conduits of hard currency from abroad the Bush administration is determined to squeeze.

China attacked Australia and Japan's sanctions. The Australian on 20 Sep reported that the PRC had begun backing away from the tough stance it took when it joined the UN resolution in July condemning the DPRK's missile launches and nuclear power bid. The PRC slammed Australia and Japan on 19 Sep for the financial sanctions they imposed on the DPRK. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said the sanctions were consistent with Australia's "strong stand against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction". The sanctions, co-ordinated between Canberra and Tokyo, target about a dozen DPRK trading companies that Australia and Japan believe are involved in Pyongyang's push for nuclear weapons. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang condemned the sanctions as escalating the standoff. "All parties should focus on how to relax the situation," he said.

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2007

DPRK Developed Sub-mounted Missile -- May Hide Missiles in Cargo Ships (Feb 2007) The Congressional Research Service, the research unit of the U.S. Congress, said in a recent report that North Korea has developed or already deployed a submarine- or ship-mounted ballistic missile system with a range of at least 2,500 kilometers. According to the report, in the 1990s Pyongyang imported from Russia Soviet-era R-27(SS-N-6) submarine-mounted missiles and improved them. The report pointed to the possibility that Russian technicians assisted the North with the project. North Korea acquired the missile technology from scrap Russian submarines, the report said. Pyongyang has improved the technology to build a missile with a range of at least 2,500km capable of being mounted on Romeo-class submarines and cargo ships, according to the report. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SEE IFANS: N Korea constructing new missile bases targeting Japan (Aug 2006)for other report of 50 DPRK SSN-6 missiles converted to land use.)

The North has also transformed ordinary cargo ships to launch the missiles, the report said. South Korean military authorities and experts said on 7 Feb that while the deployment of a submarine-carried missile is unlikely, but it would be possible for Pyongyang to use a cargo ship as a launch pad. North Korea's new ballistic missiles with a range of 2,500km to 4,000km are based on the decommissioned Soviet R-27 sub-launched missile. The existence of the North Korean ballistic missiles was brought to light by the Chosun Ilbo in Sept. 2003.

An intelligence source said that ballistic missiles must be launched vertically from a submarine and that North Korea’s main 1,475-ton Romeo-level submarine is too small to launch the new 12-meter missile. It has not been confirmed if North Korea has developed a new, larger submarine to launch the missile, the source said.

Missiles can be carried in a launch pad that looks like an ordinary container and be fired by simply raising the container upright, experts say. A cargo ship would be excellent way to conceal a missile as the enemy would likely ignore it as a simple commercial vessel. Intelligence authorities note that the new North Korean 12-meter ballistic missiles would fit inside a standard container. The CRS report also said that using a commercial cargo ship would be the easiest way for North Korea to carry missiles. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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May 2007

ROK Gov't Confirms North Fires Short Range Missiles into East Sea (May 2007) South Korea has confirmed that North Korea fired short-range missiles toward the East Sea. South Korea's Foreign Ministry said the 25 May missile launches were part of an annual military exercise. The ministry pointed out that South Korea also holds routine firings of short-range missiles four times a year. The government said that the missiles are not directly related to the North’s development of new missiles and will not affect the inter-Korean relations and the six-party talks, aimed at resolving North Korea’s nuclear weapons problems.

The missiles were fired from the communist country's east coast, probably in South Hamgyong Province, into the sea. The missiles are believed to be surface-to-ship, according to several reports, possibly North Korea’s response to South Korea’s launch of its first Aegis ballistic missile system-equipped destroyer at a shipyard. Seoul became the fifth country armed with the technology, which will enhance its ability to locate, track and shoot down North Korean aircraft and missiles.

Japan's public broadcaster, NHK, reported that the missiles were shorter-range, and were not North Korea's existing Rodong or Taepodong I ballistic missiles, adding that the missiles were surface-to-ship types. (Source: Korea Times.)

North fires two missiles into West Sea (Jun 2007) North Korea is believed to have test-fired two short-range missiles off its western coast on 7 Jun, South Korean intelligence officials said, as the communist country has been under increasing pressure to keep its promise of dismantling its nuclear weapons program. Both missiles are believed to have landed in the North's territorial waters, the official said, adding the rockets that the communist country fired were either a surface-to-ship type or a ship-to-ship type, both with a range of less than 100 km. The United States immediately condemned the DPRK's action, but the ROK has played down the significance of the launch. An official at RO Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the DPRK fired short-range missiles as part of its routine military exercises.

North fires missile into East Sea -- False Alarm (Jun 2007) Yonhap News reported on 19 Jun that the DPRK test-launched a missile again as international efforts to end the nation's nuclear program began showing signs of progress. "North Korea fired a short-range missile in what appeared to be part of a military drill," a Japanese Defense Ministry official was quoted as saying. RO Korean defense officials virtually confirmed the DPRK's missile test. "We don't deny that North Korea fired a missile," Army Col. Ha Doo-chul, spokesman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Yonhap News Agency. "If it did, we regard it as a routine exercise."

It was believed the missile was a Seersucker surface-to-ship missile with a range of 100 to 120 km, an improved version of the Silkworm surface-to-ship missile, but the South Korean military hasn't ruled out the possibility that it could have been a surface-to-surface KN-02 with a similar range to the Seersucker. The missile was fired from a missile base in Dancheon, South Hamgyong Province.

Later on 23 Jun it was reported that contrary to earlier suspicions, it was confirmed that North Korea did not in fact test-fire a short-range missile into the sea off its east coast on June 19, South Korea's defense ministry said. "After receiving an initial intelligence report that North Korea had fired a missile, we carefully analyze it," an official at the ministry said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the topic. "But after analyzing various information, we reached the final conclusion that North Korea didn't fire a short-range missile," the official said.

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June 2007

N.Korea 'Test-Fired Short-Range Missile Again' (Jun 2007) On 28 Jun it was reported that North Korea test-fired a short-range surface-to-ship missile with a range of 100 km into the East Sea on the morning of 27 Jun. Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are closely looking at the evidence to verify the report. A government source said North Korea fired the missile from the northeast coast in South Hamgyeong Province into the East Sea at 11:30 a.m. 27 Jun, following the launch of a missile from a missile base in Dancheon into the East Sea on May 25 and two missiles into the West Sea on June 7. If the launch is confirmed, the North has fired missiles on three occasions this year. The government source described the launch as part of routine military exercises in preparation for the summer drills.

N. Korea testing newly developed missiles: Defense Ministry (Jun 2007) North Korea's recent missile launches are aimed at testing brand-new missiles, the Defense Ministry said on 28 Jun. "The missiles that North Korea recently test-fired into the East Sea and the West Sea are ground-to-ground and ground-to-ship missiles with a range of around 100 kilometers," the ministry said in a press release. "They have not been deployed, as they are still in the development stage." The assessment came a day after the North reportedly launched three short-range ballistic missiles into the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

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Washington warns against missile test (Jun 2007) The United States yesterday issued a warning about North Korea's reported missile test that occurred before U.N. inspectors arrived on 28 Jun at the North Korea's main reactor site to prepare for its shutdown. "The United States is deeply troubled that North Korea has decided to launch these missiles during a delicate time in the six-party talks," National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in a statement.

North Korea test-fired at least one short-range missile into the East Sea on 27 Jun, making it the communist state's third missile test this year. The repetitive missile launches by the North has dampened the hopeful atmosphere among the six-party talks members as North Korea gets ready to shut down its main nuclear reactor in Yongbyon in July. The U.S. government expects North Korea "to refrain from conducting further provocative ballistic missile launches," Johndroe said. He said the missile launches violated a U.N. Security Council resolution banning North Korea from engaging in all ballistic missile activities, urging Pyongyang to focus on nuclear disarmament.

But both the governments of South Korea and the United States also played down the motive behind North Korea's missile launch, with Seoul sources describing it as a "routine exercise." Pentagon spokesman Chito Peppler also emphasized they were "short-range missiles." "We believe that this was a routine exercise not intended to be provocative." North Korea test-fired one short-range missile on May 25 and another one again on June 7.

Some media reports have criticized the South Korean military for its apparent attempt to play down the significance of the missile launches. Citing a report by a conservative lawmaker, the newspaper Munhwa Ilbo reported that the Defense Ministry deleted descriptions of the North's anti-ship missiles from its white paper. The ministry has refuted this, saying it takes the communist nation's missile threats seriously.

Meanwhile, Japan, which remains at odds with North Korea even inside the six-party talks framework, churned out harsh criticisms against the latest missile test. "I do not think this will directly affect our security, but in any case it is a violation of the U.N. Security Council resolution," Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was quoted as saying. "We need to seek a harsh response from the international community," he said. (Source: Korea Herald.)

Gen Bell Warns of DPRK Missile Threat (Jul 2007) Gen. B. B. Bell, USFK commander, said on 2 Jul the North's test-launch of short-range missiles in recent months were successful enough to pose a grave threat to the armed forces and South Koreans. He said the three short-range surface-to-surface missiles fired off the eastern coast last week were believed to be an upgraded version of the Frog-5 or Frog-7 with a range of 55 to 70 kilometers. "What I find very disturbing is that the North continues to test advanced short-range missiles,'' Bell said. ``These missiles are designed to be used on this peninsula, and these missiles, in general, appear to be performing as they are designed."

Bell did not provide details on the missiles' capability but informed defense sources said the missiles were believed to be the mobile KN-02, a modified variant of the Russian SS-21, with a range of 100 to 120 kilometers. The communist regime test-fired a KN-02 missile off its eastern coast toward Japan in May 2005. Once KN-02s are fired off near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the missiles are believed to be capable of reaching Pyongtaek, 70 kilometers south of Seoul, where a consolidated U.S. military base will be built by 2012, the sources said. (Source: Korea Times.)

North Korea’s three missile tests since May 25 were clearly conducted with South Korea rather than Japan in mind, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun said 7 Jul. The North test-fired short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea and West Sea on May 25, June 7 and June 27. Quoting several Japanese government sources, the Yomiuri said the missiles seemed to be KN02, an improved version of the old Soviet SS21 short-range missile. The daily said their range was 120 km and they therefore posed no direct threat to Japan.

U.S. defense official Richard Lawless on 6 Jul also said South Korea is the sole target of North Korean missiles, and Washington is actively discussing the issue with Seoul. Lawless told Japanese reporters North Korea’s missile launches were successful and the new missile is more mobile and accurate than the Scud missiles already targeting South Korea. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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October 2007

North Korea Develops New Missile (Oct 2007) JoongAng Ilbo reported on 11 Oct that the DPRK has developed a short-range missile that runs on solid fuel, can carry a chemical warhead and is capable of reaching Gyeonggi Province, a Grand National Party lawmaker said. The missile, which is called a KN-2, has a range of 120 kilometers (75 miles), Kim Hak-song, a member of the National Assembly's Defense Committee, said after analyzing intelligence data provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The KN-2 runs on solid fuel, making it easier to stockpile than liquid-fuel powered weapons. They can also be fired more quickly. According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Kim said, the DPRK test-launched the KN-2 in June in the West Sea. Reportedly, the missile can carry a payload of 500 kilograms (1,100 pounds).

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November 2007

U.S. Defense Secretary: North Korea Exports Missiles to Iran (Nov 2007) U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a briefing on November 1 that Iran has secured from North Korea a missile with a range of 2500 kilometers. At the end of 2005, a new German outlet quoted intelligence authorities saying that North Korea provided 18 BM-25 missiles with a 2500-kilometer range to Iran. The remarks by Gates marked the first time for a senior U.S. government official to confirm such reports. North Korea’s BM-25 missile is based on the Soviet SS-N-6 (R-27) submarine-launched ballistic missile.

However, Gates stopped short of elaborating on the name of the missile, how many units were sold, or when it was delivered to Iran. North Korea is confirmed to have exported scud missiles with a range from 300 to 500 kilometers, Scud-Bs, Scud-Cs as well as 1300 kilometer-range Rodong missiles to Iran. Gates’ remarks came when he tried to explain the necessity to establish MD facilities in central and western Europe in order to respond to missile threats from Iran. (Source: Donga Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: Russia is opposed to a Missile Defense System in Europe stating that it would touch off another arms race.)

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February 2008

Ballistic Missile Parts Need to Be Imported (Feb 2008) Analysis of North Korea ballistic missiles sold to other countries, and debriefing of some key people who have escaped, indicates that many key missiles components still have to be imported. Guidance systems and electronics are the two items that the North Koreans are unable to manufacture themselves. What they have managed to create are factories that can build missile airframes, and most of the components that go into liquid fueled engines. North Korea has also mastered solid fuel rocket technology, although it is still a decade or more behind the West in this area. Many of the needed electronic parts are smuggled in, or bought openly, from Russia and China.

It's more difficult to get needed electronics items from the West, since guidance system grade stuff is usually considered "military" and requires a lot of additional paperwork to export. As a result, North Korea missile guidance systems have remained quite primitive. The North Koreans have been working with scientists, and manufacturers, in Iran, Syria, and other nations, to get around these problems.

A major effort in North Korea is how to put a nuclear warhead on a missile. This is not simple, as the warhead has to be built to handle rapid acceleration (on launch and re-entry) and operating in near-space (before it turns earthward towards its target.) The Russians and Chinese have not been very helpful in this department, as both nations are not keen on seeing North Korea armed with nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles.

Given the shabby state of the North Korean economy, it's amazing that this ballistic missile industry has been built at all. It was accomplished by starving many other sectors of the economy. On a per-capita basis, the North Korea GPD is less is than one twentieth that of South Korea. With a population of 23 million, North Korea is unable to feed itself, or keep the electricity on 24/7. But the missile factories always have their lights on, and the workers eat well. (Source: Strategy Page.)

NK Missiles Get Boost from Outside (Feb 2008) Reuters on 4 Feb reported that the DPRK received a huge boost from Soviet technology to develop its ballistic missiles and still relies on foreign suppliers for key components, a report obtained on the weekend said. "The country is nearly self-sufficient in ballistic missile production , but still relies upon some advanced foreign technologies and components, particularly from overseas," said the report from Daniel Pinkston, an expert on the DPRK's missile programs. The impoverished state has set up front companies to buy sensitive missile components overseas such as guidance systems in order to avoid international trade restrictions, the report said. The DPRK has also received help from the PRC and former Soviet states.

Korea Herald on 11 Feb reported that US military officials have recently taken a new look at the DPRK's missile capabilities following the DPRK's introduction last year of a surface-to-surface missile that is more accurate and takes less time to launch, sources here were quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency. Gen. Burwell Bell, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, had warned in Senate and House hearings last year that the new DPRK missiles, given the shorter range, are specifically targeted at the ROK. The KN-02 is the first DPRK missile that uses solid fuel and is mobile, giving it better precision, but more importantly it can be fueled and readied for launch much more quickly, sources explained. (SITE NOTE: Supposedly the SCUDS need 30 minutes preparation, but the KN-02 can be prepped in 5 minutes. This means that even with real-time satellite intel, there is insufficient time to react to a KN-02 attack.)

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Pyongyang Develops Long-range Ballistic Missile: U.S. (Feb 2008) Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, said that North Korea is continuing to develop Taepodong-2, the long-rang ballistic missile it test fired in 2006. He testified as a witness before the Senate Armed Services Committee. He said that North Korea is developing a new missile by modifying a mid-range ballistic missile thought to have been exported to Iran by Pyongyang. On July 4, 2006, North Korea test-fired in vain a Taepodong-2 missile deemed to be capable of reaching the main land U.S. Maples also said "The North Korean military lacks training and equipments but it deploys a large-scale ground force forward. And it has formidable artilleries and mobile ballistic missiles." (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

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March 2008

N.Korea Develops Missiles Independently, Says CIA (Mar 2008) The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency CIA said in an unclassified document Monday that North Korea has independently developed and made ballistic missiles. In a report on the technology acquisition of weapons of mass destruction and cutting-edge conventional bombs for 2006, the CIA said Pyongyang has been developing, producing and deploying weapons to extend the range of its ballistic missiles and increase accuracy. The document said North Korea uses different channels to import commodities and parts for missile production, but that it can almost produce and develop the weapons on its own. The U.S. intelligence agency also said Pyongyang has been trying to sell missile system technologies to other countries. But two U.N. Security Council resolutions in the wake of North Korea’s missile test and nuclear detonation in 2006 removed the incentives to buy North Korean missiles for other countries. The CIA, however, said North Korea’s close relations with Iran and Syria are a source of concern. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

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N.K. test-fires missiles into West Sea: sources (Mar 2008) North Korea test-fired several missiles into the sea off the country's west coast 28 Mar, sources here said. The test, believed to be of Russian Styx missiles, comes one day after the communist nation threw out all South Korean government officials from the inter-Korean industrial complex in the North in apparent disgruntlement over the Lee Myung-bak government's hard-line North Korea policy. The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the missiles were fired at approximately 10:30 a.m. The number of missiles fired or their types could not be immediately confirmed. (Source: Hankyoreh News.)

Yonhap News stated the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae reacted calmly to news that North Korea launched missiles into the West Sea on 27 Mar, dismissing it as part of "ordinary military training" in the communist state. "The government regards North Korea's missile firing as merely a part of its ordinary military training," presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan told Yonhap News Agency. (SITE NOTE: Actually, the DPRK was cranking up the pressure on the Lee Myeong-bak administration by threatening military action. The problem appears that no one seems to be listening to the DPRK rhetoric -- and the aircraft threatening ROK airspace, military maneuvers and the shutting of the borders to ROK officials are all for naught.)

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April 2008

'Signs of Activity' at N.Korean Missile Launch Site (Apr 2008) U.S. military authorities have been closely watching the North Korean arm since spotting signs of lively activity at a missile launch site in North Korea, CNN reported Friday. Quoting two U.S. military officers, the channel reported satellite photos recently spotted personnel, vehicles and materials moving toward the Rodong missile base in Shinori, north of Pyongyang. Rodong-1 missiles with a range of 1,300 km capable of striking most of the Japanese islands are reportedly deployed at the Shinori site.

"The activity has prompted concerns Pyongyang is planning a new round of ballistic missile tests of either medium or longer range missiles," the unnamed officers said. But CNN added, "The activity is in its early stages and it's not yet possible to determine what the North Koreans are doing." The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff on Sunday said, "We haven't confirmed reports of signs of North Korea preparing for a missile launch in Shinori.” (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

May 2008

Another Missile Launch by North Korea (May 2008) At around 12:30 p.m. on Friday, North Korea launched one missile on Cho Island near Nampo City in South Pyongan Province. The missile was launched two months after North Korea launched three short-range missiles mobilizing naval vessels in the same region on March 28. A government source said, “It is difficult to disclose the type and the point of impact of the missile launched by North Korea because it can reveal how we obtained the information. We are closely watching the moves of the North Korean forces while simultaneously investigating whether the missile launch was part of regular training or was for pressuring South Korea.”

According to a military source, the missile is either the same type as the Soviet-made Styx surface-to-surface missile with a 40 kilometer-range launched in March or a short-range missile of a similar sort. Cho Island is the location of a missile test launch base. Another government official said, “It seems that North Korean forces launched the missile to create military tension and anxiety near the Northern Limit Line (NLL). It appears that North Korea’s militarists who are recently maintaining a strong stance toward South Korea are the ones who guided the missile launch.”

Since the end of March, North Korea has continued to increase pressure on the South. On the day of the missile launch, it published a bitter editorial in North Korea`s official newspaper Rodong Shinmun, and sent an equally severe telegraph notification to South Korea from its military authority. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

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September 2008

North may use secret base to fire new ICBMs (Sep 2008) North Korea has quietly built a long-range missile base that is larger and more capable than an older and well-known launch pad for intercontinental ballistic missiles, according to independent analysts relying on new satellite images of the site and other data. “It would suggest they have the intention to develop the capability to perfect a missile to deliver atomic bombs to the United States,” said John Pike, an imagery analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, who first reviewed the information last week. Analysts provided images of the previously secret site to The Associated Press.

Construction on the site on North Korea’s west coast began at least eight years ago, according to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., senior analyst for Jane’s Information Group, and Tim Brown of Talent-keyhole.com, a private satellite imagery analysis company. Bermudez first located the site in early spring and they have tracked its construction using commercial and unclassified satellite imagery. “The primary purpose of the facility is to test,’’ Bermudez told The Associated Press in an interview last week. A base capable of a long-range test could obviously be used in wartime to launch a missile that carries a warhead. “This is a clear indication North Korea is continuing its ballistic missile development program,” Bermudez said. Bermudez is also unveiling the images on the defense Web site Janes.com and in the Sept. 17 edition of Jane’s Defence Weekly. He said the launch pad has been operational since 2005 but has not yet been used. He believes North Korea wants to use it to develop longer-range and more accurate ICBMs. It could also launch satellites.

Although North Korea has been long thought to want additional missile capability and test facilities, this is the first public disclosure of the new launch facility, according to Bermudez, Brown and Pike. Pike said the new facility represents a major step forward for North Korea’s long-range missile program as it would allow multiple test flights in a short time, which is difficult at the smaller, original long-range missile launch site known as Musudan-ni. “This would be a facility to conduct a real flight-test program and develop something that you have some operational confidence in,’’ Pike told The Associated Press. “At the old facility, [a robust test program] just wasn’t going to happen,” he said. Pike and Brown identified Musudan-ni nine years ago when they were both at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington.

A U.S. counter-proliferation official said U.S. intelligence has been aware of the North Korean site for several years. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified information. North Korea has not used the new site, but could at any time, U.S. intelligence officials and the outside analysts said. “There is no reason they couldn’t launch in the near future,” Brown told The Associated Press.

Construction has continued even as the U.S. government renewed its attempt to persuade North Korea to shut down its nuclear weapons program. Those negotiations do not address North Korea’s long-range missile program, but would give North Korea much-desired economic and political incentives in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons. The deal’s future may be in doubt with news this week that Kim Jong-il, who has held absolute rule in the isolated Stalinist government, may have been incapacitated by a stroke or other health crisis. North Korean authorities deny he is ailing.

The new launch facility exceeds in both size and sophistication the Musudan-ni base on North Korea’s east coast, images from DigitalGlobe and GeoEye suggest. North Korea launched a failed long-range Taepodong-2 space launch vehicle in 2006 from Musudan-ni. That test alarmed the world and gave new energy to the stop-and-start diplomacy over North Korea’s nuclear program. It also conducted a surprise launch of a Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998 from that east coast site.

Pyongyang has not yet attempted to launch the ballistic missile version of Taepodong-2, which is estimated to have a maximum range of about 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers), potentially threatening the western edge of Alaska. The range could be extended with engine improvement and light payloads. The new launch facility is built on the site of a small village called Pongdong-ni which was displaced during construction. It includes a movable launch pad and a 10-story tall tower capable of supporting North Korea’s largest ballistic missiles and rockets. It also includes a rocket motor test pad, which Brown and Bermudez said is similar in size and design to a rocket test facility outside of Tehran, Iran. There are also support buildings. “The discovery of this new facility demonstrates that North Korea is still conducting an ambitious ballistic missile program and may still have plans to launch satellites into space,’’ Brown said.

Bermudez and Brown refer to the site as the Tongchang-dong launch facility, naming it after the closest village. U.S. intelligence does not use the same name for the site. Officials would not immediately divulge the term they use. The base is not quite complete, according to Pike, who reviewed the most recent imagery Tuesday and said it is still missing a building where the missile would undergo its final assembly before being rolled to the launch site. Brown and Bermudez have not yet found optical or radar tracking facilities; they believe North Korea will rely on mobile or shipboard radar systems in tests. They have also not identified fixed air defense systems that would protect the facility from air attack.

But the site does have an engine test stand, a critical facility for measuring vibration from the engines and adjusting guidance systems to account for it, Bermudez said. “The engine test stand means they now have the ability to increase the reliability of whatever system they develop,” he said.

Brown and Bermudez say the new launch facility is more protected from surveillance aircraft than Musudan-ni because it is mostly surrounded by hills. Its proximity to Chinese airspace could also discourage close observation by plane, as the U.S. military may want to avoid a repeat of the 2001 collision of a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet.

North Korea is believed to possess up to a dozen nuclear warheads. The new launch pad would help in the development of missiles to carry them, he said. In 2006, North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, removing any doubt it had the means to make a nuclear warhead. Its previous missile test showed it also had the means to deliver one. North Korea has agreed in principle to forswear nuclear weapons and the plutonium used to fuel them. It placed its known plutonium-producing reactor out of commission earlier this year, but has recently backtracked by taking some equipment back out of storage in possible preparation to restart the reactor.

In June, North Korea destroyed the reactor’s distinctive conical cooling tower as a symbolic show of good faith with the United States and other nations bargaining with it. But the deal has since stalled over North Korea’s obligations to allow intensive international fact-checking of its past nuclear activities. North Korea claims Washington has not held up its end of a nuclear disarmament deal because it has not removed the North from a U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. (Source: Joongang Ilbo: AP.)

N.Korea Tests Missile Ignition (Sep 2008) North Korea has reportedly conducted an engine ignition test for a long-range missile, presumably the Taepodong-2 missile with a range of 6,700 km, at a new long-range missile test site under construction in Dongchang-li, North Pyongan Province. For the test, the rocket engine of a missile is laid out horizontally at the test site and ignited to test its performance. The test confirms that part of the Dongchang-li test site, which is expected to be completed by 2009, is already operational, and that North Korea has been continuing development of long-range missiles.

The engine is presumably for a Taepodong-2 missile, whose test firing failed in July 2006, or an improved version with a range of longer than 10,000 km. A government source said after the failed test in 2006, North Korea has intermittently conducted engine ignition tests and continued development of long-range missiles. The Dongchang-li test site is said to be much larger and better than the one in Musudan-ni. Its existence was first reported in the foreign press last Thursday. At a session of the National Assembly Defense Committee on Thursday, Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said construction is 80 percent complete. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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U.S. warns N. Korea against long-range missile test (Sep 2008) The United States warned on 17 Sep that any long-range missile test by North Korea would violate a United Nations ban, while refusing to confirm that Pyongyang actually did conduct a recent test. "I don't have any further information for you on those news reports of tests of an engine that would be suitable for a long-range ballistic missile," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. "I would only note, as I did yesterday, that any work in that regard would be contrary and in contravention of U.N. Security Resolution 1718." McCormack was responding to the report that North Korea has tested an intercontinental missile engine at its new launch site under construction on its west coast.

South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee told a parliamentary committee last week that the new launch site is about 80 percent complete. Reports have said North Korea has been building a mobile launch pad and a 10-story tower capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles that could possibly reach the U.S. west coast.

The Security Council adopted a resolution in 2006 demanding that the North "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program," and abandon its missile program in a "complete, verifiable and irreversible manner." The resolution was issued soon after North Korea test fired a long-range missile in a break from its voluntary moratorium on missile testing imposed in 1998 to defuse international criticism after parts of a ballistic missile fell into the sea off Alaska. Alarmed by the North's surprisingly robust missile capabilities, the Clinton administration sent Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang to arrange a summit meeting between Clinton and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Pyongyang and Washington agreed to a summit on the North's missile and nuclear issues, but Clinton failed to visit Pyongyang, citing a lack of time in the waning months of his term. (Source: Yonhap News.) Intelligence: N.Korea to Test New Missile (Oct 2008) North Korea has made a sweeping renovation of its old launch pad for intercontinental missiles on its east coast and is preparing to test a new long-range missile, government sources in Seoul said yesterday. Pyongyang is also reportedly restoring a nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamkyong Province, where the North conducted its first nuclear test two years ago.

The Seoul sources said old launch facilities for Taepodong missiles have been replaced with new ones, and the missile base in Musudan-ri is being upgraded. North Korea test-fired a long-range missile that was assumed to be Taepodong 2 from the Musudan-ri launch pad July 5, 2006. The missile plunged into the East Sea 42 seconds after launch. “North Korea has replaced a tower crane that propped up the launch pad and is improving the stability of missile fitting such as reinforcing missile supporters,” one source said. “We found that a facility needed for missile assembly and final inspection are being extended.” “A new facility for automatic supply of missile propellant substances was also set up. But we assume this is to either cover up preparation for a missile launch or shorten preparation time.”

Pyongyang is also developing a solid substance-propelled ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers. To that end, it has replaced the second-stage booster of the newly deployed Taepodong 2 with a new engine, according to Seoul intelligence. In addition, an engine combustion test for a Taepodong 2 missile was found to have been carried out in a new long-range missile base under construction in Tongchang-ri on the west coast.

Given these movements, South Korean intelligence authorities have reportedly concluded that North Korea is preparing to test launch a new long-range ballistic missile that is an improved version of the Taepodong 2. Another Seoul source said, “Smoke was seen rising from the nuclear test site in Punggye-ri, North Hamkyong Province. So we are looking into whether Pyongyang is working to restore nuclear facilities.” “The smoke probably came from workers burning clothing and equipment. We are analyzing whether this minor activity had something to do with the reactivation of the Yongbyon nuclear plant.” In October 2006, North Korea reportedly dug a tunnel under a hillside in Punggye-ri and tested a nuclear device at the east side of the tunnel. Last week, North Korea told the International Atomic Energy Agency that it will start reactivating nuclear facilities in Yongbyon within a week. (Source: Donga Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: The question remains is whether the launch will again overfly the Japanese airspace -- and pointed towards Alaska. The next question is whether the fledgling -- and not completely tested Missile Defense System will be tried to down the DPRK missile. Most likely not -- as a failure would reduce the credibility of the MDS. Thus this will be another incident where the US-Japan-ROK build up the hype -- and try to spin the launch, if it happens, against the North. All the allies can do is hope for a failure -- and to play up how the last launch disintegrated 42 seconds after launch. On the other hand, the North with the success of the Chinese space program must feel it must prove that it too can play with the big boys -- much like the ROK space program using Russian technology. The launch takes on the level of national honor.)

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October 2008

N. Korea fires two short-range missiles in Yellow Sea: source (Oct 2008) North Korea fired two short range missiles in the Yellow Sea adjoining China Monday as part of its routine military training, a defense source here said on 7 Oct. "We understand that North Korea fired about two missiles in the Yellow Sea in the afternoon of the seventh (of October)," the source said. "It seems that the missiles were fired as part of their routine drill."

The missile launch, the first since March when a North Korean naval vessel fired three Styx missiles in the Yellow Sea, comes amid a flurry of diplomacy to break a new deadlock in the multilateral denuclearization talks. U.S. chief nuclear envoy Christopher Hill last week made a three-day visit to Pyongyang, but apparently failed to agree to a verification regime as North Koreans would not accept U.S. demands for unfettered access to the North's nuclear facilities. Washington has yet to lift Pyongyang from a terrorism blacklist, citing lack of an agreement on the verification protocol, prompting the North to restart its nuclear facilities disabled under a six-party deal.

"North Korea had designated an off-limit zone for vessels in the Yellow Sea before it fired missiles," the source said. "North Korea appears to have fired KN-02 or Styx missiles into the international sea from North Korean waters." The North's short range missile launch follows recent reports that North Korea has tested an intercontinental missile engine, that could possibly reach the U.S. west coast, at its new launch site under construction on its west coast. South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee told a parliamentary committee in mid September that the new launch site is about 80 percent complete.

The United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution in 2006 demanding that the North "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program," and abandon its missile program in a "complete, verifiable and irreversible manner." The resolution was issued soon after North Korea test fired a long-range missile in a break from its voluntary moratorium on missile testing imposed in 1998 to defuse international criticism after parts of a ballistic missile fell into the sea off Alaska.

Alarmed by the North's surprisingly robust missile capabilities, the Clinton administration sent Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang to arrange a summit meeting between Clinton and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Pyongyang and Washington agreed to a summit on the North's missile and nuclear issues, but Clinton failed to visit Pyongyang, citing a lack of time in the waning months of his term. (Source: Yonhap News.)

North Korea ready to fire more missiles: report (Oct 2008) North Korea has deployed more than 10 missiles on its west coast for what appears to be an imminent launch, a South Korean newspaper said on 9 Oct, two days after the North fired two short-range missiles into the Yellow Sea. It would be an unprecedented test if the North fired all of the surface-to-ship and ship-to-ship missiles, but intelligence sources quoted by the Chosun Ilbo paper said they thought the North may launch five to seven of them. The North has forbidden ships to sail in an area in the Yellow Sea until October 15 in preparation for the launch, an intelligence source told the paper.The North fired two missiles on Tuesday in routine military drills, South Korea's defense minister said on 8 Oct. "If the North fires a large number of missiles, it would be difficult to see it as routine exercise," the source was quoted as saying.

A South Korean defense ministry official declined to comment on the report but said the government had no indications of unusual activities in the North. A senior U.S. nuclear envoy visited the North Korean capital last week in a bid to convince the state to return to a disarmament-for-aid deal and halt plans to restart an aging nuclear plant that makes bomb-grade plutonium. Washington is reviewing the discussions U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill held in Pyongyang to see if it can begin verifying statements the North made about its nuclear program, an official in Seoul familiar with the talks said.

A U.S. military commander played down any escalation of the threat posed by the North, which recent reports have said conducted engine tests this year at a new missile launch site. "We have seen no increased movement or military activity in North Korea, nor have we responded in any way with any military posture changes," Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told reporters in Tokyo on 9 Oct. The United States was keeping the area under close observation he said, but declined to comment on the missile reports. "Hypothetically, if North Korea were to fire off 10 missiles in short order, that would be very unusual," he said.

North Korea has a history of timing its missile launches at periods of increased tension to show that it is ready to take a hard and defiant line, analysts say. North Korea fired seven ballistic missiles in July 2006 including a long-range Taepodong-2 off its east coast. Three months later, it conducted a nuclear test. (Source: Yahoo: Reuters.)

South Korean military authorities are on alert after reports that North Korea is gearing up to fire several more short-range surface-to-ship and ship-to-ship missiles. Agents say some dozen KN-01 surface-to-ship and Styx ship-to-ship missiles are deployed ready for firing in an area near Chodo, North Hwanghae Province. It would be an unprecedented number of missile tests if the North fires all of them. In 2006, North Korea tested seven, but they were medium- and long-range ballistic missiles. The KN-01, an improved version of the Chinese Silkworm missile, has a range of 110 to 120 km. The Styx has a range of 46 to 50 km.

Meanwhile, there is speculation that the North fired air-to-ship missiles from an IL-28 bomber on Tuesday, not surface-to-ship or ship-to-ship missiles as is widely believed. Intelligence authorities here seem to think North Korea will fire at least five to seven missiles, given that a navigation ban in waters in the area holds until Oct. 15 and the North is still ordering ships to move elsewhere. South Korean military authorities speculate that the missile tests are some kind of response to South Korea's large-scale celebrations of the 60th anniversary of its armed forces, including the Navy's latest international fleet review. A South Korean military source said, "North Korea fired surface-to-ship missiles last year when we launched our first Aegis-equipped King Sejong the Great class destroyer" and such a response is therefore in character. (Source: Chousn Ilbo.)

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2009

January 2009

N. Korea moving to launch long-range missile: source (Feb 2009) North Korea appears to be preparing to launch an inter-continental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, a South Korean intelligence source said Tuesday, amid rising tension on the divided peninsula. The source said a train carrying a long cylinder-shaped object has recently been spotted by U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies, adding it is believed to be a Taepodong-2 missile. The preparation for the launch is likely to be completed in a month or two, the source said, confirming another report from Japanese media that the launch is imminent. "The intelligence report by Japan appears grounded on facts," another official said, speaking on customary condition of anonymmity.

Other officials at the South Korean defense ministry said senior commanders have begun a meeting to discuss their response. North Korea said last week it is scrapping all peace accords it has signed with South Korea to ease tension along the heavily armed border. The relations between the two countries -- which fought the truce-ended 1950-53 Korean War -- have soured significantly over the past year since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office with a pledge to tie reconciliation to the North Korean nuclear issue.

The intelligence comes after a U.S. international relations expert told Yonhap News Agency last month that the North nearly completed the construction of a new rocket-launch facility. "I understand North Korea could launch a rocket from the facility as early as this spring if the Paektusan-2, more commonly known as the Taepodong-2, is ready for testing," Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, said on Jan. 29. North Korea's long-range missiles such as the Taepodong-2 can technically reach Alaska and western parts of the U.S., and are known to be capable of carrying a payload of up to 500 kilograms. The communist state, which conducted its first known nuclear test in 2006, launched a Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998. It launched another missile, Taepodong-2, during a large ballistic missile exercise in 2006, but it failed after about 40 seconds of flight, according to outside intelligence assessments. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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February 2009

U.S. Warns It May Shoot Down N.Korean Missile (Feb 2009) The U.S. state and defense secretaries on 10 Feb warned North Korea against a missile test for which the Stalinist country seems to be preparing. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters if North Korea is preparing to test-fire a ballistic missile with the continental United States considered a potential target, then the U.S. could shoot it down. But Gates added, "Since the first time that they launched the missile (in 2006) it flew for a few minutes before crashing, the range of the Taepodong-2 remains to be seen. So far, it's very short." In a separate press conference, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, "North Korea has to understand that all of the countries in East Asia have made it clear that its behavior is viewed as unacceptable."

CNN on 10 Feb said a U.S. spy satellite snapped an image of North Korea assembling telemetry equipment at its missile launch site in Musudan-ri on the east coast. Citing an anonymous high-ranking U.S. official, CNN reported the same events took place during North Korea's last Taepodong missile launch in October 2006. An anonymous senior Pentagon official on 10 Feb that U.S. Pacific Command decided to move battleships to locations capable of monitoring North Korea's activities. The official added the U.S. government was monitoring the latest movements using all military assets. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

US Ready to Use Defense Shield Against Missile Threat (Feb 2009) U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on 10 Feb that the U.S. military may put the country's missile defense system on alert if North Korea fires any intercontinental ballistic missiles. In a press briefing at the Pentagon, Gates answered that the U.S. administration is maintaining the option of activating the missile defense system if deemed necessary. According to a press transcript provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, Gates told reporters that ``I certainly intend to make sure that my colleagues -- the secretary of state, national security advisor, president and vice president ? understand what our capabilities are, and that that's an option out there should -- should we deem it necessary."

But Gates also tried to ease concerns and played down the notion that the North Korean missiles pose any credible danger to the United States. A reporter at the press briefing noted that North Korea appears ready to fire a Taepodong-2 missile, with the potential capability of reaching the U.S. West Coast. But Gates said Taepodong-2 ballistic missiles have not yet had a successful test. ``Since the first time that they launched the missile ? it flew for a few minutes before crashing ? the range of the Taepodong-2 remains to be seen. So far, it's very short," he said. The Taepodong-2, designed for a range that could potentially strike the U.S. mainland, failed a test firing in 2006 when the missile exploded about 40 seconds after its launch.

Separately, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is scheduled to visit Asia next week, also offered her thoughts on North Korea. At her press briefing, Tuesday, she said she hopes Pyongyang's recent rhetoric won't trigger instability in the region. She called on the regime to re-engage with the international community. ``We intend to pursue the six-party talks," she said. ``We are hopeful that some of the behavior that we have seen coming from North Korea in the last few weeks is, you know, not a precursor of any action that would up the ante, or threaten the stability and peace and security of the neighbors in the region. ``There are opportunities for the government and people of North Korea were they to begin, once again, to engage through the six-party talks, through other bilateral and multilateral forums."

Yonhap News Agency reported earlier this month that U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies believe North Korea might be preparing to test a Taepodong-2 missile. Yonhap had reported that the South Korean intelligence agency recently observed a train carrying a cylinder-shaped object thought to be a Taepodong-2 missile. On Jan. 30, Pyongyang heightened its hostile rhetoric against Seoul, announcing that the regime was scrapping all military and political agreements with the South. Pyongyang accused the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration of pursuing confrontational policies that were pushing the two nations toward the brink of war. (Source: Korea Times.)

N.Korea Insists It Will Launch 'Satellite' (Feb 2009) North Korea on 24 Feb insisted it is preparing to launch a satellite, technology it is unlikely to have, instead of a missile as widely assumed. The [North] Korean Committee of Space Technology in a statement said "At the moment, preparations are underway at the Donghae launch site in Hwadae-gun, North Hamgyong Province to launch the Kwangmyongsong-2, an experimental communications satellite, by means of a delivery rocket called Unha-2."

The agency claimed it also expects to launch a practical satellite for communications, resource surveys and weather forecasts, which are essential for the country's economic development, and normalize its operations in the first stage in a few years. Though it mentioned no date, the statement suggests that the North will test-fire a long-range Taepodong-2 missile as planned. Back in August 1998, the North test-fired a missile which it claimed was the satellite Kwangmyongsong-1.

A South Korean government official noted that the North is preparing to launch what will nominally be the third term of the Kim Jong-il regime with elections to the Supreme People's Assembly on March 8, and is seeking talks with the U.S. to guarantee the regime's survival. "In these circumstances, it will highly likely launch a missile in March or April as part of efforts to unify society and as a bargaining chip to achieve talks with the U.S.," he added.

North Korea launched a Taepodong-1 missile just before the first Kim administration was being inaugurated. An intelligence officer said the missile launch will be technically possible within a week or two. The North is apparently installing a radar and measuring instrument to trace the trajectory and expected impact area, he added. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: What should be compared VERY closely is the similarities between the North Korean missile launch vehicle (first-second stages) and the Iranian launch of its satellite in Feb. The Iranian made dramatic leaps forward in design in an incredible short period of time. The satellite itself was a primitive piece but its missile launch vehicle was most impressive -- and its mobile launch system made it an immense threat. The technology jump means it is capable of producing an ICBM in the future. There has been talk that North Korea was assisting Iran in its development along with Russia. If this launch is successful, there may be grave danger that the Russians have assisted much more than is being reported.)

U.S. warns against N. Korea's launching of satellite as well as missile (Feb 2009) The United States on 24 Feb repeated a warning for North Korea to refrain from launching either a long-range missile or a satellite into orbit, saying any such activities would violate a United Nations resolution. "As you know, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718 prohibits the North from engaging in ballistic-missile-related activities, and whether it's a space-launched vehicle or a missile, some of the building blocks for developing a space-launched vehicle and for producing long-range missiles are similar," State Department spokesman Robert Wood said in a daily news briefing. Wood was responding to the announcement by North Korea earlier in the day that it was preparing to launch a communications satellite, without elaborating on the timing of the launch.

South Korean officials have said that the launch could take place within weeks, in time for the parliamentary election in March. In April, it is expected that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will be reestablished as the chairman of the National Defense Commission, with the possible announcement of his third son, Jong-un, as heir apparent.

Reports have said that the recent shakeup of the North's military, including the replacement of the defense minister, could be linked to a move to establish the third son as successor in the wake of the North Korean leader's apparent health failure from a stroke last summer. The spokesman urged the North not to issue provocative words but to return to the six-party talks on ending its nuclear weapons programs. "Intimidation and threats are not helpful to try to bring about regional stability. So the North needs to desist from that type of behavior," Wood said. "The North needs to focus on denuclearization, living up to its commitments that it made as part of the six-party framework, and then go from there."

The North's announcement of an imminent satellite launch is the latest of a series of threats escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, timed with the arrival of the Barack Obama administration late last month. Pyongyang has threatened to cut off all military and political ties with South Korea, nullify a western sea border and possibly go to war with the conservative Lee Myung-bak government. Unlike his predecessors, who have provided generous rice, fertilizer and energy aid to the North regardless of its nuclear and missile programs, Lee has adopted a hard line.

Obama is still formulating his North Korea policy, but supports the six-party talks, stalled in December when the North balked at a verification protocol for its nuclear facilities. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Seoul last week that the Obama administration will reward the North with diplomatic recognition, the establishment of a peace regime to replace a fragile armistice, and provide hefty economic assistance if the North abandons its nuclear programs under the multilateral talks that includes the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia. She also announced in Seoul the appointment of Stephen Bosworth as the U.S. special representative for North Korea, overseeing the six-party talks and other North Korea issues, dispelling concerns that the new U.S. administration is sidelining North Korea due to a more urgent issues such as the deepening economic crisis and the Middle East. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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March 2009

Japan Warns It Will Intercept N.Korean Projectile (Mar 2009) Japanese Aegis-equipped destroyer Chokai fires an interceptor missile to shoot down the target in space, off the coast of Kauai. But Kyodo added if a North Korean missile targets the United States, it will be difficult for Japan's SM-3 to intercept it. (SITE NOTE: Japan indicated that it would first use the SM-3 but also if it veered towards Japan it would use the Patriot PAC-3. The SM-3 is high-trajectory intercept and the PAC-3 is low-level intercepts.)

Tokyo warned North Korea it would intercept not only missiles but also a satellite launched by the communist country. The Sankei Shimbun quoted Japanese Minister of Defense Yasukazu Hamada as saying, "It is natural to react to even a satellite if it can cause serious damage when it falls down to Japan."

Based on the progress of North Korea's preparations, Japan's Defense Ministry predicts the missile test will happen in mid-March, the Sankei said. A long pipe which appears to be used to supply fuel was detected near a base in North Hamgyong province by a spy satellite, and it is highly likely that North Korea will start putting fuel into the launch rocket between Thursday and Saturday. Once the fuel is in, the launch must happen before the fuel begins to decay, probably no later than mid-March. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

N. Korea threatens war if satellite shot down (Mar 2009) North Korea put its armed forces on standby Monday (9 Mar) and threatened "a war" if anyone tries to shoot down what regional powers suspect is an imminent test-firing of a long-range missile. Pyongyang also cut off a military hot line with the South, causing a complete shutdown of their border and stranding hundreds of South Koreans working in an industrial zone in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

Monday's warning - the latest barrage of threats from the communist regime - came as U.S. and South Korean troops kicked off annual war games across the South, exercises the North has condemned as preparation for an invasion. Pyongyang last week threatened South Korean passenger planes flying near its airspace during the drills. Analysts say the regime is trying to grab President Barack Obama's attention as his administration formulates its North Korea policy.

The North also indicated it was pushing ahead with plans to send a communications satellite into space, a provocative launch neighboring governments believe could be a cover for a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska. U.S. and Japanese officials have suggested they could shoot down a North Korean missile if necessary, further incensing Pyongyang.

"Shooting our satellite for peaceful purposes will precisely mean a war," the general staff of the North's military said in a statement carried Monday by the official Korean Central News Agency. Any interception will draw "a just retaliatory strike operation not only against all the interceptor means involved but against the strongholds" of the U.S., Japan and South Korea, it said. The North has ordered military personnel "fully combat ready," KCNA said in a separate dispatch.

Obama's special envoy on North Korea again urged Pyongyang not to fire a missile, which he said would be an "extremely ill-advised" move. "Whether they describe it as a satellite launch or something else makes no difference" since both would violate a U.N. Security Council resolution banning the North from ballistic activity, Stephen Bosworth told reporters after talks with his South Korean counterpart.

South Korea's Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae downplayed the North's threats as "rhetoric" but said the country's military was ready to deal with any contingencies. Analysts say a satellite or missile launch could occur late this month or in early April when the North's new legislature, elected Sunday, is expected to convene its first session to confirm Kim Jong Il as leader. Ties between the two Koreas have plunged since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office a year ago halting aid unless the North fulfills an international promise to dismantle its nuclear program. In retaliation, North Korea suspended the reconciliation process and key joint projects with Seoul, and has stepped up the stream of belligerence toward the South.

Severing the military hot line for the duration of the 12-day joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises leaves the two Koreas without any means of communication at a time of heightened tensions. The two Koreas use the hot line to exchange information about goods and people crossing into Kaesong. Its suspension halted traffic and stranded about 570 South Koreans who were working in Kaesong. About 80 had planned to return to the South on Monday but were stuck there overnight since they cannot travel after nightfall. Earlier, some 700 South Koreans who intended to go to Kaesong on Monday were unable to cross the border, the Unification Ministry said. All South Koreans in Kaesong are safe, the ministry said as it called on Pyongyang to restore the hot line immediately.

The exercises, which will involve some 26,000 U.S. troops, an unspecified number of South Korean soldiers and a U.S. aircraft carrier, are "not tied in any way to any political or real world event," Gen. Walter Sharp, commander of the U.S. troops, said Monday. (Source: AP.) (SITE NOTE: South Korea and the United States kicked off one of their largest joint annual military exercises on 9 Mar amid fears North Korea may test-fire a long-range ballistic missile in protest. The Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercise, which mobilizes 26,000 U.S. troops, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers, has been dubbed by North Korea as a prelude to war.)

North releases details of rocket's flight path (Mar 2009) Diplomatic and technical calculations are at play with the designated drop zone near Japan and not the U.S. After the North notified the International Civil Aviation Organization and International Maritime Organization of its plans to launch a communications satellite early next month, it released the details of the multi-stage rocket’s flight path. According to Pyongyang, the first stage would first splash into East Sea, 650 kilometers away from the launch pad at Musudan-ri, with the second stage falling into the Pacific, 3,600 kilometers from the East Sea.

Missile experts and Seoul government officials say that the rocket that the North will launch on April 4-8 will fly for 125 seconds at an altitude of 50-60 kilometers before the first stage falls into the East Sea. The second stage is expected to fly at an altitude of 130-150 kilometers for 125 seconds before falling into the Pacific. The margin of error for the drop zone is 100-150 kilometers.

The rocket’s estimated flying range is much longer than that of the Kwangmyongsong-1, better known as the Taepodong-1, which the North launched in August 1998. The rocket’s first stage flew 253 kilometers before it hit the sea and the second stage fell 1,646 kilometers from the launch site. The rocket to be launched next month is expected to have a longer flying range than the Kwangmyongsong-1 because it is larger in diameter and height and can carry a greater amount of fuel, a researcher at the Korea Aerospace Research Institute said. Kwangmyongsong-1 was reportedly 28.1 meters long and weighed 19.9 tons. Sources say that the rocket to be launched next month will be over 40 meters long.

The rocket’s trajectory is largely determined based on scientific and technological conditions but the position of neighboring countries is also a factor. Generally, a rocket is launched eastward at an angle of 90 degrees in order to make the most of the earth’s rotation. In 1998, the North fired the Kwangmyongsong-1 at an angle of 86 degrees eastward between Sakhalin, Russia, and Hokkaido, Japan. At the time, the North explained that it had adjusted the firing angle for safety reasons, saying that if the rocket were launched at an angle of 90 degrees, it would spend more time over Japan and the second stage could fall into Japan’s territorial waters.

Based on the North’s announcement and explanations, the rocket launched next month will be launched at an angle of 90.5 degrees, meaning it will have a 0.5 degree westward tilt. This will give it a longer flight path over Japan, in comparison with the Kwangmyongsong-1. One aerospace expert said, “If the angle is adjusted to 86 degrees as it was with Kwangmyongsong-1, it is likely that the rocket’s second stage will fall into the Pacific Ocean off of Hawaii.” This indicates that Pyongyang has decided to avoid inciting the United States, choosing instead to risk criticism from Japan.

The South Korean government, meanwhile, is taking special precautions for airplane safety. The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs said that the rocket is expected to fall 90 kilometers away from the Kamchatka air route and 370 kilometers away from the Pacific route. “Airplanes using the Kamchatka route should take extra precautions, including the monitoring of wind directions. The Pacific route will be adjusted by the U.S. in charge of flight control to avoid the drop zone.” (Source: Hankyoreh.)

‘Satellite’ launch fuels speculation about North’s military technology (Mar 2009) There is growing interest in the state of North Korean military technology, particularly whether it has the capability to successfully launch a satellite, now that Pyongyang is making launch preparations. North Korea test-fired a Rodong-1 missile with a 1,000 kilometer range in May 1993. Five years later, in August 1998, it fired a Taepodong-1 missile with double the range of the Rodong-1. The first stage fell into the East Sea, the second passed through Japanese airspace at an elevation of 65 kilometers, and the third stage is believed to have burned up after failing to find its target path. It launched a Taepodong-2 missile in July 2006 that maintained normal flight for approximately 40 seconds before it is believed to have fallen into the East Sea.

The North is believed to have made technological progress since that time. Experts believe it at least has the ability to launch a low-orbit satellite in the head of the Taepodong-2, which is known in the North as the Unha-2. One South Korean government official said it is believed the Taepodong-2 is the result of development of the fuel, navigational and warhead separation technology of the Taepodong-1. It has also been learned that the North has spent considerable effort on the development of solid fuel, making it likely that some solid fuel might go into the Taepodong-2. Recently developed missiles have been using solid fuel, which is easier to transport and faster to load than liquid fuel.

Even if the North launches a satellite with technology it has developed on its own, “if it doesn’t have the know-how to control the satellite once in orbit there’s no use in launching one,” said an official at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute. It is unlikely the North has the technology to find its own unique orbit, one that does not overlap with other existing satellites.

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in December 2006 that North Korea had imported some materials and parts to make warhead missile, but that otherwise it was self sufficient in that regard. Many experts continue to believe, however, that there must be limits to how far North Korea’s independent knowledge really extends, whether it has the ability to produce satellite parts that can withstand temperature extremes and zero gravity. (Source: Hankyoreh.)

Seoul Mulling List of Targets for N.Korea Sanctions (Mar 2009) The South Korean government is considering drafting a list of targets for sanctions in North Korea in case the North launches a long-range missile. The projected list is aimed at stepping up pressure on the North under UN Security Council 1718. The list would specify people and organizations in North Korea as targets of major sanctions. When Resolution 1718 was adopted after North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2006, no list was made out of political consideration.

A government official said, "Considering the positions of China and Russia, it's not easy to reach a new resolution at the UN Security Council if the North keeps insisting that the projectile it plans to launch is a satellite. But there is some consensus that the North's launch of such a projectile would itself constitute a violation of Resolution 1718, even if it is a satellite." He said a "realistic alternative" would be to step up sanctions according to the resolution, which have so far been nominal.

Resolution 1718 obliges all UN member countries to impose an arms embargo, travel ban and financial freeze on North Korea. Of the three kinds of sanctions, arms embargo and financial freeze particularly oblige the member countries to specify "target individuals and organizations" under Article 12 (e) of the resolution. But political considerations including Washington-Pyongyang negotiations over the resumption of the six-party nuclear talks in 2006 meant no country made such a list of targets.

A diplomatic source said it would be possible to put considerable pressure on the North without having to take separate measures because a list of targets including senior North Korean officials would have "an enormous substantial and symbolic impact on the North." Some countries such as Japan are reportedly enthusiastic about the idea, but much depends on the position China and Russia take. Another diplomatic source said, "No full list was made even after the North's nuclear test back then, so any countries can make such a list to respond to the North's launch of a long-range missile if they join efforts with the U.S." (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

U.S. confident over possible shootdown of N. Korean rocket: commander (Mar 2009) The U.S. on 17 Mare expressed confidence that it will be able to intercept any North Korean missile approaching from North Korea, dismissing concerns over U.S. missile defense capability. The remarks by Gen. Victor Renuart, commander of the U.S. Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command, come as critics are saying the U.S. may not try to shoot down any North Korean ballistic missile or satellite due to technological shortfalls and its political implications.

North Korea has said that it will launch a rocket in early April to put a communications satellite into orbit as part of its space development program, although the U.S and its allies see that as a guise to test a ballistic missile capable of reaching the mainland U.S. "If we felt the North Koreans were going to shoot a ballistic missile at us today, I am comfortable that we would have an effective system able to meet that need," Renuart told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "I think, as you know, we're right now in a mode of very limited threat. Essentially, North Korea is the system that we are focused on."

The commander said that he was "confident that with the capabilities that are designed into the system -- the various radars and sensors -- it would give us good enough information against that single target to be successful." Renuart's remarks echo those of Army Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, director of the Missile Defense Agency, last month that the U.S. has successfully practiced intercepting missiles flying from North Korea three times.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has also hinted that the U.S. might intercept a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile should one approach American territory, saying, "My colleagues, the secretary of state, national security adviser, president and vice president, understand what our capabilities are." Art Brown, former chief of the Asian Division for the Central Intelligence Agency, however, said last week that the U.S. has "never conducted a realistic test of the Ballistic Missile Defense system against an unknown target." He said all tests have been with complete advance knowledge of the target's course, timing, and characteristics, adding, "Even then, the results have been very poor sometimes. My personal opinion is that, if we tried, the chance of missing is very high. This would be a very embarrassing event." North Korea, which has notified international authorities of its plans to launch a rocket in early April, threatened to fire back and wage a war if the U.S. shoots down the rocket.

Opinions are divided over whether to further sanction North Korea for a satellite launch, with Washington and its allies seeing the launch as violation of a U.N. resolution and China and Russia less insistent. The resolution, adopted in 2006 soon after North Korea test fired a ballistic missile, bans all ballistic missile activities by North Korea. North Korea claims it has the right to develop its space program. The technology for space and ballistic missile launch is indistinguishable as both use the rocket boosters that penetrate the atmosphere and then move into space. (Source: Yonhap News.)

Pyongyang prepares to set up rocket launch pad (Mar 2009) South Korean sources say that "between March 28 and 30," preparatory work will begin on the Musudan-ri launch pad. Seoul is ready to create a crisis team to confront the threat. The communist regime announces the closing of two air routes to clear the way for the rocket launch.

At the weekend, Pyongyang will begin the preparatory phase for the missile launch from the platform of Musudan-ri (in the photo), in the southern part of the province of North Hamgyong. The news comes from South Korean sources today, according to which it is "highly possible that the rocket will emerge between March 28-31."

Seoul says that it will take "at least three days" to fuel the rocket, and is preparing to respond to the threat: "The moment North Korea sets up its rocket that appears to be a long-range missile, [South Korea] will begin operating a crisis management team, assuming the actual launch is imminent." North Korea has confirmed that it intends to launch a "communications satellite" between April 4 and 8, and insists that the experiment is legitimate; however, it violates the guidelines of the United Nations outlawing missile tests - military and civilian - by the Pyongyang regime, which has joined the space race but is indifferent to a population reduced to famine. The United States and South Korea claim that the country is preparing a test of a ballistic missile (Taepodong-2) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.In recent days, the communist regime in the North has given notice that two air routes - used by South Korean and international civilian planes - will be closed from April 4-8, in order to permit the missile launch. (Source: Asia News.)

VIDEO: Admiral Mike Mullen says that North Korea is making rockets that will be able to reach Hawaii. Does not have capability of ICBM now, but working towards it.

Iran missile experts in North Korea 'to help with rocket launch' (Mar 2009) Missile experts from Iran are in North Korea to help Pyongyang prepare for a rocket launch, according to reports. Amid increasing global concern over the launch, which the US and its allies consider to be illegal, Japan's Sankei Shimbun newspaper claimed today that a 15-strong delegation from Tehran has been in the country advising the North Koreans since the beginning of March. The experts include senior officials from the Iranian rocket and satellite producer Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, the newspaper said. The Iranians brought a letter from President Ahmadinejad to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il stressing the importance of co-operating on space technology, it added.

As tensions increase ahead of the rocket launch, Japan's Air Self-Defense Force began deploying units capable of shooting down a rocket to the northern prefectures of Akita and Iwate. Early today, units carrying Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles left a base in central Japan and will arrive at the northern prefectures on Monday, according to Japan's national broadcaster NHK. On Friday Tokyo gave its military the green light to shoot down any incoming North Korean rockets.

Pyongyang has said that it will launch a communications satellite over northern Japan between April 4 and April 8, but the US and its allies in the region believe the secretive regime is actually planning illegally to test a long-range Taepodong-2 missile that could reach North America. Japanese media claimed that spy satellites have photographed the nose cone of a long-range North Korean rocket on its launch pad. Envoys from South Korea, Japan and the US met in Washington during the weekend to discuss counter-measures to be taken against North Korea.

The three allies have warned that a rocket launch would be in violation of a UN Security Council resolution banning the communist state from carrying out ballistic missile activities. Pyongyang has resisted pressure to call off the launch and warned that any attempt to shoot down the rocket would be regarded as an act of war. (Source: Times Online UK.)

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May 2009

US and Japan on DPRK Missile Launch (May 2009) Mainichi Shimbun ("U.S. GENERAL CALLS N. KOREA ROCKET RESPONSE A SUCCESS", 2009/05/15) reported that the US and Japanese militaries' response to the DPRK's rocket launch last month was "seamless," the commander of American troops in Japan said, calling the monitoring and tracking of the launch a success. Maj. Gen. Francis Wiercinski told The Associated Press on Wednesday his forces were "100 percent ready" for the launch and coordinated well with their Japanese counterparts, ensuring that information was shared quickly and released to the public to avoid confusion or panic.

Kyodo ("N. KOREA'S ROCKET LAUNCH EXTENDED MISSILE RANGE: DEFENSE MINISTRY", Tokyo, 2009/05/15) reported that the DPRK's rocket launch last month has helped extend the range of its ballistic missiles, and the country is likely to make more progress down the road in developing such missiles through a close examination of the latest event, the Japanese Defense Ministry said in a report on Friday. In a separate report released the same day, the ministry has also determined that a succession of mistakes within Japan's defense apparatus resulted in erroneously alerting the public about a rocket launch one day before it actually occurred.

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Activity at N.Korean Test Sites Intensifies (May 2009) North Korea has been speeding up construction of a new long-range missile test site in Tongchangri, North Pyongan Province. And vehicles and personnel are busily moving around in Kilju, North Hamgyong Province, where the North conducted an underground nuclear test in 2006, showing signs of preparations for another. "The North has recently been speeding up construction at the test site in Tongchangri by deploying more equipment and personnel," a South Korean government official said Wednesday. "We expected the North would complete construction sometime late this year, but it now seems that it could be completed several months earlier."

Construction of the test site began eight years ago and was 80 percent complete last September. South Korean military authorities believe the North could accelerate completion of the test site and test-launch a long-range ballistic missile from there. North Korea on April 29 threatened to conduct a second nuclear test and test an intercontinental ballistic missile, unless the UN Security Council lifts sanctions against it and "apologizes." The test site in Tongchangri is believed to be capable of launching both ICBMs and satellite rockets, and is much larger and has more up-to-date facilities than the current similar test site in Musudanri, North Hamgyong Province. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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Report: North Korea test-fires short-range missile (May 2009) A South Korean news agency has reported that North Korea test-fired a short-range missile. The Yonhap news agency report Monday (24 May) comes just hours after the communist nation declared that it successfully conducted a nuclear test. Yonhap said North Korea fired a ground-to-air missile with a range of 80 miles (130 kilometers) from its northeastern Musudan-ri launch site. The regime also launched a long-range rocket from that site on April 5. South Korea's military said it was checking the report. (Source: AP.) (SITE NOTE: According to the Korea Herald, North Korea has launched a short-range missile from its Musudan-ri rocket launch site on the country's east coast, a South Korean government official said on 30 May. "What the North has launched this time appears to be different from what it had launched (previously)," the official said. "It is a new type of a land-to-air missile," the official said. North Korea launched the missile, with an estimated range of 160 km, into the East Sea at around 6:12 p.m., according to the official. The North has been firing a series of missiles since Monday, when it said it successfully conducted its second nuclear test.)

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North Korea Preparing to Fire ICBM (May 2009) Following its long-range rocket launch April 5 and its second nuclear test Monday, North Korea is reportedly ready to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,000 kilometers. This implies Pyongyang’s intention to heighten military tension regardless of possible sanctions against it discussed by the U.N. Security Council.

A source familiar with the issue said on 30 May, “U.S. intelligence officials have spotted activity at Sanumdong, a research-and-development complex nearby Pyongyang. North Korea seems to be ready to produce a new ICBM and move them via train.” According to Fox News, a U.S. intelligence official said support activity, including the movement of certain vehicles and personnel, has been spotted at Sanumdong.

The official said the key North Korean military facility has senior U.S. officials “kind of worried,” and that the activity is consistent with that observed prior to the past launch of the Taepodong-2 missile. North Korea has developed and produced parts and bodies of long-range missiles at Sanumdong. It manufactured the body and other parts of the long-range rocket launched April 5 at the complex, moved them to Musudan-ri in North Hamkyong Province via train, reassembled the parts, and fired the rocket from the launch site in Musudan-ri.

After the U.N. Security Council adopted a statement condemning the North’s rocket launch, a spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry announced a second nuclear test and the test launch of a long-range ballistic missile. The Stalinist country conducted its second nuclear test Monday as pledged. The spokesman released another statement yesterday saying Pyongyang will have no choice but to take countermeasures if the U.N. Security Council makes another provocative move.

The rising of tension on the Korean Peninsula has also led to the sudden withdrawal of Chinese vessels operating near the Northern Limit Line from the West Sea late Thursday. This followed the North’s announcement that it cannot guarantee the safety of Chinese vessels. Seoul’s military officials have kept an eye on the withdrawal of the Chinese vessels. According to one South Korean military source, the number of Chinese vessels operating nearby the inter-Korean maritime border has fallen from the usual 280 to around 120. North Korean vessels are still operating nearby the border, however.

Another South Korean military official said, “We’re trying to find out whether Chinese vessels began withdrawing from the West Sea following North Korea’s request or if they were ordered to withdraw by the Chinese government, which does not want a clash between the two Koreas.” “Our military has closely watched North Korean forces off the west coast since the sudden withdrawal of Chinese vessels could be a sign of a North Korean provocation.” (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

NK Moves ICBM to Missile Base on West Coast (a new base at W. coast) (Jun 2009) North Korea has reportedly moved a long-range missile that it says it will test-launch soon following its second nuclear test to a new place. The intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,000 kilometers was moved from a military research center in Sanumdong near Pyongyang and is known to be headed for a base in Musudan-ri, North Hamkyong Province.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials say the missile is highly likely to be transported to a newly built long-range missile base in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il will reportedly visit areas near the base early this month, so South Korean and U.S. intelligence are on high alert. A Washington source familiar with the issue said yesterday, “A train carrying the North’s new ICBM is confirmed to have departed from a train station near the Sanumdong research center nearby Pyongyang. But it disappeared from a spy satellite’s view,” adding, “It is certain the train didn’t go to the Musudan-ri base.”

Given that the North has only two long-range missile bases -- one in Musudan-ri and the other in Tongchang-ri --, chances are that the missile was transported to the Tongchang-ri base, according to intelligence authorities. A Seoul source said last Friday he agreed with the speculation, saying, “The ICBM the North is now moving on a trailer is thought to be a revamped Taepodong-2 missile,” adding, “Though we cannot give detailed information, the North might not launch the missile from the Musudan-ri base.”

“We should note that the construction of the Tongchang-ri base is almost complete. The launch will most likely happen in mid-June, when South Korea and the U.S. will hold a high-level summit. The North can also choose July 4, U.S. Independence Day.” A high-ranking Seoul official said Saturday, “A long-range missile mounted on three freight train cars was recently spotted at the Sanumdong military research center,” adding, “We’re sure that it’s an intercontinental ballistic missile.”

Another Washington source said Kim Jong Il is likely to visit Tongchang-ri or vicinity early this month. This is fueling speculation that the reclusive leader will inspect the missile base. In September last year, the South Korean Defense Ministry said the North was building a new long-range missile base in Tongchang-ri, with construction 80 percent complete. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)
Dongchang-ri Launch Site (Donga Ilbo)

(SITE NOTE: If this is the case, the electronic Recce flights from Kadena have a BIG problem. On the West Sea, they will NOT be able to fly their pattern as it would mean infringement on North or China airspace. That leaves only the U2 flights from Osan and satellite coverage -- none of the sophisticated electronic eavesdropping.

The second problem I see is trajectory. It is a given that they will not fire towards China and aim at any of the Chinese vast ranges because in would complicate the Chinese politics if they support the North's ICBM programs.

Therefore, they are probably planning on firing towards the Pacific -- just as they did on the last shot. They are also gambling that the US-Japan will do nothing as they did last time.

But this time the altitude will be much higher for the new-improved Taepdong 2. I'm no rocket scientist, but I would assume that the North has it planned so that it is above the normal effective altitude of the Aegis SM3s in the East Sea.

As these tests aid the Iranians who most assuredly are on hand to exchange technology, it becomes very important. The Iranian Defense Minister just said that their ICBMs had the range to reach the East coast of the US. Thus any advances here will surely affect the Iranian advances at home. This is getting to be too complicated for my simple mind.)

N.Korea Declares Wide Coastal Area on West Sea Off Limits (Jun 2009) North Korea has declared a wide area in the West Sea off Hwanghae and Pyongan provinces off-limits until the end of July. It is also becoming more secretive. A South Korean government official on Sunday said the North Korean Army has reduced communications to a significant extent, "and they exchange only messages that seem essential during communications as if they are mindful of our monitoring."

On about 120 occasions every year, North Korea declares areas in its waters off limits for ships for military exercises or oil exploration in both East and West seas. But it has seldom declared such a large area off limits for such a long period. Experts speculate that the sudden departure of Chinese fishing boats engaged in illegal fishing in waters along the Northern Limit Line probably has something to do with this. Their number had dropped from some 280 to some 120 since last Thursday.

A train carrying what appears to be an intercontinental ballistic missile is traveling to a rocket launch site in Musudanri, North Hamgyong Province. Another South Korean government official said North Korea will probably launch a missile as early as mid-June, judging by the lead time, including preparations for setting up the launch pad. But other experts say it would take longer than two weeks given the time it takes to move it to Musudanri, assemble it, set it up on the launch pad and fill it with liquid fuel. North Korea's Taepodong-2 missile is believed to have a maximum range of 6,700 km, and any missile with range over 5,500 km is categorized as an ICBM. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

(SITE NOTE: If a launch on the West Sea is why the North cleared the area, it is logical. On the EAST Sea, US aircraft fly a recon pattern off the North coast in international waters. In the past the North has shot down EC-121s in the 1960s, intimidated P3 Orions in the 1970s and 1980s, and confronted EC-135s in the 1990s. Any such move in the latest standoff may be just enough to tip the US over the edge. HOWEVER, if the launch is on the WEST sea, the US has a distinct problem in that there is no way they can fly an orbit without infringing on either the North Korean or Chinese airspace. Thus it eliminates the spy flights. The U-2 spyflights and satellite monitoring will continue.

The next question though is the proposed flight path of the missile. If launched from the West coast, the trajectory will be much higher and perhaps out of the range of the AEGIS SM3 missiles because it will be on a rising trajectory as it passes over North Korea headed to the east Pacific area. The SM3 are designed for a descending medium altitude intercept. With the missile on the West coast, it is evident that the North's scientists anticipate that the missile will already be at HIGH altitude by the time it crosses Japanese airspace -- and then it becomes a question of is that really Japanese airspace. In the last test, the missile path flew over Japan enroute to the Pacific range at MEDIUM range. It was feasible for the US-Japan to attempt a shootdown but they did nothing. We would anticipate the North will do the same and the other route will aim it at Alaska -- where a shoot-down attempt by a THAAD would be very likely. Only this time with the increased altitude, it may be more difficult to shoot down.

Such a launch complicates matters decidedly. Just on the off chance that the missile is targeted for a CHINESE range, this would create a massive stir. It would mean the Chinese was supporting their ICBM missile development. The Chinese would be placed into a impossible spot dealing with weapons proliferation. Therefore, the only choice is to use the Pacific area as the target point.

That the Iranians are deeply involved in the rocket research and sharing of technology is a certainty. This also complicates the matters as the Iranians now claim that their ICBMs can reach the east coast of the US. The threat to America is self-evident.)

Why N.Korea Moved Long-Range Missile to New Site (Jun 2009) North Korea has moved a long-range missile from a launch site in Musudan-ri, North Hamgyong Province to a new missile testing site in Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province. There is a lot of speculation why what is believed to be a Taepodong-2 missile was moved.

A South Korean government source on Monday (1 Jun) said a train carrying the missile arrived in Dongchang-ri over the weekend from a research center in Pyongyang and the missile appears to have been placed in a large structure to be assembled. It is expected to be assembled over the next week or two before it is placed upright on the launch pad.

South Korean intelligence are wondering why the missile is at the new test site, which has yet to be completed. One reason may be that the Dongchang-ri site is more advanced, thereby lowering the time and risk involved in launching a missile. The Dongchang-ri site is believed to be equipped with automated systems to track and control missiles and rockets, and to load them with liquid fuel. Also, the vertical launch pad is 40 m high, while the one in Musudan-ri is only 30 m, making it capable of launching long-range missiles or rockets carrying satellites.

The source said another advantage may be that if the missile crosses North Korea on an eastward trajectory, it can travel a longer distance than if it was fired from Musudan-ri, while making it easier to track and gather data from radar and other facilities in the North. He added that North Korea could fire the missile southward along the West Sea. Until now, a missile and long-range rocket fired from Musudan-ri crossed Japan, triggering strong protests from the Japanese government. Tokyo threatened to intercept the rocket.

Intelligence officials note that the Dongchang-ri site is only around 70 km away from the Yongbyon nuclear facility. North Korea has yet to develop a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile, but the proximity of Dongchang-ri to the Yongbyon nuclear facility would allow the North to transport a nuclear warhead to the missile site in less time than the old site. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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US Could Intercept N. Korean Missile' (May 2009) The U.S. Defense Department says it could "likely" intercept a long-range North Korean missile before it reaches the American mainland.Charles McQueary, director of operational tests and evaluation, told Bloomberg News that an the chance of interception is "likely" but not "highly likely."

He also said Washington will likely launch multiple rockets at the incoming missile to raise the chance of interception. South Korea and U.S. intelligence have reportedly detected signs at the Musudan-ri launch site in North Korea showing Pyongyang preparing to launch a Taepodong-2 long-range missile. (Source: KBS Global.) (SITE NOTE: As it did the last time, any missile launch will depend upon Japan's action. If Japan vows to shoot down the missile, the US will be forced into a shoot-down mode. What is stake is the reputation of the entire MDS network (Aegis ships with SM3 missiles and PAC3 Patriot protection). If the SM3s miss, the THAAD system from Vandenburg/Alaska will HAVE TO shoot down the missile and thus bring its reputation on line. If the Japanese-US want to risk the shootdown, they will probably demand the North remain on a strict course over the Japanese mainland -- one that the North cannot comply with (probably pointed towards Alaska). If the shot deviates from the path, the Japanese have the right to shoot it down. It's a game of chicken -- but the stakes are very high. -- We are still not certain about the 30 GBI (ground based interceptors) that Bob Gates was speaking of last week and how they would interface with a shootdown decision.)

Gates: Alaskan missile defenses can handle N. Korean threat (Jun 2009) Standing on a highly-secured rocky field above 20 underground silos filled with 16 ground-based interceptor missiles, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Monday that he was confident the U.S. missile defense shield was capable of blocking any intercontinental ballistic missile threat launched from a rogue nation, including North Korea.

In the whipping wind of the interior of America’s north-westernmost state, which is potentially within range of North Korea’s long-range missiles, Gates made perhaps his strongest case for U.S. missile defense programs since the Obama administration has come to office. “I would say that if there were a launch from a rogue state, such as North Korea, I have good confidence that we would be able to deal with it,” he said. “Knowing that we have the capability, and that it becomes more effective with each passing day, should be a source of comfort to the American people.”

Following last week’s nuclear and missile tests conducted by the North Korean government and confirmation that a long-range Taepodong-2 missile was moved to a launch pad near China, Gates continued to downplay Pyongyang’s rhetoric and actions as unsurprising. The secretary, wrapping up a six-day trip through Singapore and the Philippines, continues to say that despite the Kim Jong-Il government’s proclamations, their weapons pose no nuclear threat to the United States. The Pentagon had scheduled Gates’ silo visit before North Korea’s tests began.

The secretary wanted to visit with troops stationed in the “Last Frontier” state for the first time, and gain support for his first Obama administration budget, according to the Pentagon press secretary, Geoff Morrell. But by Monday, Gate’s visit placed the Pentagon chief squarely in the middle of America’s first defense against the North Korean threat. He climbed down a hatch to the base of a silo holding one of the 54-foot long, 4-foot diameter, GBIs.

Gates later remarked that he remembered 40 years ago he was a lieutenant at an Air Force base that had Minuteman missiles. “You know, a missile looks like a missile. You just make sure the pointy end is up,” he said, drawing laughs. But in Washington, some members of Congress are seriously eyeing Gates’ proposal curbing the growth of U.S. missile defense arsenal. Fort Greely eventually will hold 26 ground-based interceptors, or GBIs, and combined with four GBIs located in Vandenberg AFB, in southern California, Gates said that total “more than meets the need”.

The last U.S. missile defense test came on December 4, 2008. That missile, located in the Vandenberg AFB in southern California, was launched from Fort Greely’s Fire Detection Center. The secretary frequently has said this year that the threats of “conventional” warfare coming from other global powers possessing long-range missiles did not warrant continued expansions.

On his tour through Asia this weekend, Gates said his budget choices were made based on “strategic reality” rather than perceived threats of what other states might be able to achieve. Speaking to a town hall of 300 soldiers and airmen in a hangar at Elmendorf AFB, he once again said that every dollar saved on a weapons procurement program was a dollar that could be spent directly on troops and their families.

But critics of missile defense have said the program reflects just that: an outdated and extremely costly response to Cold War threats that no longer exist. Gates, arguing his case to the gathered troops, said U.S. arsenals are so greater than those of China or Russia he felt confident in his proposed cuts. Elmendorf is home to some of the most advanced fighters in the world, F-22 Raptors, perhaps the most widely discussed of Gates’ program cuts. “In 2020, the United States will have roughly 1,200 fifth-generation combat aircraft. The Chinese will have zero. In 2025, the Chinese will have a few hundred. We will have 1,700,” he said, “plus another thousand fourth-generation aircraft.” “I’m confident we have the country protected and are able to prevail wherever along that spectrum of conflict we end up fighting.”

Gates told the airmen he feels the Air Force would require a “cultural change” if, for example, the Army was going to be able to rely on the Air Force’s already expansive fleet of more than 200 C-130 cargo planes for its logistics needs rather than buying its own fleet. “I’m counting on these two generals to figure out a way to make it work,” he said of the respective service chiefs of staff Gen. George W. Casey, Jr., of the Army, and Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, of the Air Force. Ultimately, Gates said his budget critics should focus on the worth of defense programs, rather than the dollars.

“As I told the Congress, I am a strong supporter of missile defense, but I think we need to put the money where we can actually get some value out of it” he said. He would not guess about the prospects of his budget before Congress, but noted the expected critics were keeping quiet. “In the past, there have been a number of skeptics of missile defense on Capitol Hill. I haven’t heard a lot from those folks lately,” said Gates. (Source: Stars and Stripes.)

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North to Produce New Missile (Jun 2009) Kyodo News ("N. KOREA TO MASS-PRODUCE SYRIA-PROVIDED MISSILE", Seoul, 2009/06/02) reported that the DPRK has apparently agreed to mass-produce a small, Russian-designed missile that it recently obtained from Syria, according to a Western diplomatic source. The missile in question is the Kornet anti-tank guided missile developed by KBP Instrument Design Bureau, a Russian government-backed defense contractor based in Tula, Russia, said the source, who closely monitors Syrian-DPRK affairs.

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Software Glitch Cripples Aegis Destroyer (Jun 2009) The South Korean Navy's high-tech Aegis-equipped destroyer has been hit with a software glitch to its missile tracking radar system, a military source said Wednesday. The blow comes amid expectations that North Korea will test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the coming weeks. It remains to be seen whether or not the 7,600-ton Sejong the Great destroyer will be able to conduct missile detection and tracking operations against the possible ICBM test-firing, said the source close to the Navy's operational planning team. The KDX-III destroyer, commissioned last December, is now at the Naval Logistics Command in Jinhae, South Gyeongsang Province, for maintenance on a data transmission error, he said.

However, a Navy spokesman claimed the ongoing repair work is part of regular ship maintenance services and not because of a critical systems failure. ``A flaw in the data transmission system linked with the missile tracking radar in the Aegis destroyer was found. Engineers from the Navy and Lockheed Martin are trying to fix the problem and reconfigure the radar system,'' the source told The Korea Times on condition of anonymity. ``The Navy has actually not been able to test the Aegis radar's maximum capability so far due to the software glitch.''

Sejong the Great, the lead ship of the planned three KDX-III destroyers, is equipped with an Aegis Combat System built by U.S. Lockheed Martin. The system is the world's premier fire-control system, capable of simultaneous operations against aircraft, ballistic and cruise missiles, ships and submarines. Only a few countries, such as the United States, Japan and Norway, operate Aegis warships. The KDX-III destroyer's SPY-1D radar is one of the most up-to-date Aegis radar systems, capable of tracking some 1,000 aircraft within a 500-kilometer radius simultaneously, providing full 360-degree coverage.

Following its underground nuclear test May 25 and recent test-firings of short-range missiles, Pyongyang is preparing to test-launch a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile with a range of up to 6,700 kilometers at a new missile site on its west coast, according to intelligence authorities. The communist state is expected to test-fire the missile as early as the middle of this month when the leaders of South Korea and the United States meet for a summit in Washington, a government source said.

A Navy spokesman confirmed the maintenance effort. He said the ship arrived at the logistics command on May 23 on a month-long maintenance program. ``We're not sure at the moment if Sejong the Great will be able to participate in detecting a North Korean ballistic missile this time,'' the spokesman said, asking not to be named. Another Navy official said the current maintenance was aimed at ensuring the destroyer secures enough initial operational capabilities before reaching full capacity.

In light of the latest developments, an arms expert questioned the Navy's earlier claims that Sejong the Great demonstrated successful or even better performances than U.S. and Japanese Aegis warships in detecting and tracking a North Korean ``rocket'' launched April 5. ``I'm just wondering if Sejong the Great actually did that good a performance in April only four months after being commissioned with limited initial operational capabilities,'' the expert said. ``But now it's also ironic that the ship has been under repair at this critical time when the countdown to the North's ICBM firing is looming.'' Normally, it takes three to four years for an Aegis ship to secure substantial operational capabilities, he said, referring to the upgrade process for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Kongo class destroyers as a case in point. (Source: Korea Times.)

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AP: N. Korea Completes ICBM Launch Site (Jun 2009)North Korea has completed a launch site for intercontinental ballistic missiles in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, the Associated Press quoted a U.S. military expert as saying Thursday. “The launch pad appears to be operational," said Tim Brown, a senior fellow at GlobalSecurity.org, an American think tank specializing in security issues, based on satellite images produced Wednesday by DigitalGlobe, a private American satellite company.

A launch tower 10 stories high and a launch pad are clearly seen in the images. Debris appearing to be construction materials is also seen on the launch pad. Brown said the North appears to have intentionally left the debris to hide the completion of construction. The North has been building the long-range missile launch base for a decade. Unlike the launch facility in Musudan-ri on the North’s east coast, the new facility can launch several missiles in a short period of time, the report said, adding this is a major step forward in Pyongyang’s long-range missile program.

Intelligence officials in Seoul and Washington recently confirmed that a long-range missile was moved from the North’s military R&D complex Sanumdong to the Tongchang-ri base. A diplomatic source in Beijing predicted that the North will test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile from the new facility in the middle of this month and conduct its third nuclear test this year. The third nuclear test will be the last stage to develop a nuclear warhead under one kilogram to fit on the tip of a long-range missile, experts said.

Pyongyang has accelerated its development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles to pave the way for the power succession of Kim Jong Un, the youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. The North is apparently trying to show its people that Kim Jong Un is a capable leader by giving him credit for the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles armed with nuclear warhead, sources close to the situation said. Even if the U.N. Security Council imposes tougher sanctions on North Korea, the international community cannot stop the North’s development of a long-range missile with a nuclear warhead, the sources also said, adding, if Pyongyang succeeds in development, the six-party talks will likely be scrapped. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

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Alaskans concerned about North Korea's missiles (Jun 2009) Alaskans are concerned over the prospect that North Korea is getting ready to test a long-range missile that could reach strategic targets in their home state. And they're not buying Defense Secretary Robert Gates' assertion during a visit this past week to one of Alaska's many military installations that the missile is not a threat to the United States. "I think we would definitely be a target because of the oil and the military," said Dale Walberg, owner of a small greenhouse business in Eagle River. "They are just so secretive. What do we really know?"

There's been no direct threat against Alaska or anywhere else, but the missile North Korea is believed to be assembling for a test may have a range of 4,000 miles, putting Hawaii and much of Alaska within reach. Alaska's two largest cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks, have both Air Force and Army bases. There's also Fort Greely, home of the Missile Defense Complex. The U.S. plans to store 26 ground-based missile interceptors in silos at the base, about 100 miles south of Fairbanks. Other high-profile potential targets would include Prudhoe Bay, the nation's largest oil field, or Valdez, the terminus of the 800-mile trans-Alaska pipeline.

Bert Cottle, mayor of Valdez, where 16 percent of the nation's domestic oil production is loaded onto tankers for delivery to the West Coast, said he checked with two military leaders in Alaska to get their take on the developing missile situation and was told everything is status quo. "We will wait for further updates," he said. In the meantime, the state's political leaders are using the missile situation to send a message to the Obama administration: Maintain a strong military presence in Alaska.

Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, sent a letter to Gates urging him to reconsider a decision to not complete construction of a second missile defense field at Greely and to place a cap on F-22 fighters at Elmendorf Air Force Base. "We are sending the wrong message to our enemies by stopping the placement of these interceptors," Young's letter said. "While 30 interceptors may be enough to counter the current threat from North Korea, it is clear that it will not be enough in the future."

Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, said he would continue to push for the installation of the final 14 interceptors. "It may be just one missile positioned today, but who knows what surprise North Korea will announce next?" Begich said. Dan Goure, vice president of defense studies at the Lexington Institute in Alexandria, Va., said Alaskans should be outraged by the Obama administration decision to scale back Greely's missile defense program. "The most desirable targets these guys can hit are all in Alaska and the system that is being deployed is inadequate," Goure said. "You may say I will trust the president to stand up to that threat, but do the people of Alaska want to be put on that front line?"

William English, 72, of Eagle River, thinks the threat from North Korea's long-range missile is real. "I think they are going to find a target to shoot it at, right here. You lose Prudhoe Bay and the state is gone," said English, who worked as an electrical engineer on the North Slope for 26 years. English thinks the North Korean leader is "crazy as hell." About 15 miles east of Fairbanks, the town of North Pole has just 2,100 residents but

Mayor Doug Isaacson thinks it would likely be on North Korea's list of attractive targets. It's less than 10 miles from the Army's Fort Wainwright with 7,180 soldiers and from Eielson Air Force Base with 3,010 military personnel. It also has two oil refineries. "I am sure that if anybody is looking at strategic locations North Pole is probably on the radar," he said. Isaacson said he has contacted public affairs officers at Fort Wainwright and local borough officials and department heads to discuss emergency plans. "Right now, I don't think there is much consideration that there is a serious threat, but having said that everything is possible and every eventuality needs to be looked at," he said.

In Hawaii, where the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor ushered the U.S. into World War II, people are more concerned with the state's high unemployment rate, which has doubled over the past year, and the governor's order furloughing state employees to cope with a sharp revenue decline. Hawaiians also doubt North Korea would fire a missile at the U.S. "I think it's bluffing," said Tim Luster, a 45-year-old in the music retail business. "It doesn't really make sense to me that they would directly attack the United States. It seems a little outlandish."
,br> But in Anchorage, Francis Merriman, a 61-year-old boat captain, thinks the North Korea missile threat must be taken very seriously. "Do they have nuclear warheads?" Merriman asked. "Don't we have any way of shooting them down?" (Source: AP.) (SITE NOTE: Lastest reports state that US officials feel that the North "may" be a threat to the US west coast in "three-five years." Obama continues to maintain that North Korean threat "over-blown." Senior U.S. military officials say North Korea's ballistic missiles could threaten the west coast of the United States in three to five years. The vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lieutenant General Patrick Cartwright, said North Korea's three tests of its longest-range missile, though unsuccessful, have demonstrated an increasing capability. His comments came during a hearing Tuesday of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn told lawmakers that North Korea's missile testing program has accelerated. Lynn said the future threat of Pyongyang's long-range missiles provides a strong reason for the United States to maintain ground-based missile interceptors. The head of the U.S. military's Missile Defense Agency, Lieutenant General Patrick O'Reilly, said North Korea is involved in sharing technology with countries including Iran, but would not specify other countries. (SITE NOTE: IRAN!!!) O'Reilly said there is an extensive effort to sell North Korean technology and hardware.)

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June 2009

N.Korean Missile Train on the Move (Jun 2009) A special North Korean train which transported a long-range rocket or intercontinental ballistic missile to a launch site in Tongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province in May recently moved from a missile research center in Sanum-dong, Pyongyang to another launch site in Musudan-ri, North Hamgyong Province, a South Korean government source said Tuesday (16 Jun).
,br> South Korean and U.S. authorities believe the North may have transported a second intercontinental missile to the launch site. The North launched a long-range rocket from Musudan-ri on April 5, which had also been transported by special train. Seoul and Washington are wondering whether the North will launch two long-range missiles from both launch sites at the same time or whether the train is just a smokescreen to confuse watchers. (SITE NOTE: On 15 Jun, it was reported that the missile site preparations were complete.) North Korea has threatened to launch another missile in protest against UN sanctions over its nuclear test. It apparently has three to four intercontinental ballistic missiles, and may be keeping one or two more at the research center in Sanum-dong. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

U.S. Fortifies Hawaii to Meet Threat From Korea (Jun 2009) The U.S. is moving ground-to-air missile defenses to Hawaii as tensions escalate between Washington and Pyongyang over North Korea's recent moves to restart its nuclear-weapon program and resume test-firing long-range missiles. In anticipation of a North Korean missile test, the U.S. is positioning off Hawaii a floating radar, like this one shown in a 2005 Boeing photo.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Thursday that the U.S. is concerned that Pyongyang might soon fire a missile toward Hawaii. Some senior U.S. officials expect a North Korean test by midsummer, even though most don't believe the missile would be capable of crossing the Pacific and reaching Hawaii. Mr. Gates told reporters that the U.S. is positioning a sophisticated floating radar array in the ocean around Hawaii to track an incoming missile. The U.S. is also deploying missile-defense weapons to Hawaii that would theoretically be capable of shooting down a North Korean missile, should such an order be given, he said. "We do have some concerns if they were to launch a missile...in the direction of Hawaii," Mr. Gates said. "We are in a good position, should it become necessary, to protect American territory."

Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported Thursday that North Korea would launch a long-range Taepodong-2 missile at Hawaii from the Dongchang-ni site on the country's northwestern coast on or close to July 4. In his comments to reporters, Mr. Gates didn't directly address the Japanese report or say whether the U.S. had evidence that North Korea was preparing for a launch.

Some U.S. officials have said satellite imagery shows activity at a North Korea testing facility that has been used in the past to launch long-range missiles. On a trip to Manila earlier this month, Mr. Gates said the U.S. had "seen some signs" that North Korea was preparing to launch a long-range missile. But he cautioned, that "at this point, its not clear what they're going to do."

The stakes would be high for both North Korea and the U.S. in the event of a missile launch. North Korea would be attempting to demonstrate that it was capable of striking the U.S., but many U.S. defense officials are highly skeptical that North Korea has a missile capable of reaching Hawaii, which is more than 4,500 miles away from North Korea. North Korean long-range missiles have failed three previous tests in the past 11 years. In the most notable North Korean misfire, a Taepodong-2 missile that Pyongyang launched on July 4, 2006, imploded less than 35 seconds after taking off.

The Obama administration, meanwhile, would have to choose whether to attempt to shoot down the missile, a technically complicated procedure with no guarantee of success. An American failure would embarrass Washington, embolden Pyongyang and potentially encourage Asian allies like Japan to take stronger measures of their own against North Korea. Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee, who as Hawaii's adjutant general directs the state's Army and Air National Guard, said the military "certainly has enough assets to protect the state of Hawaii." (Source: WSJ.) (SITE NOTE: The General may be right about conventional weapons, but it does NOT have the capability for missile attacks. We posted under "North Korea Missile Crisis" during the last crisis that this is the choice of the US. They opted NOT to try a shoot down as we KNEW they would opt for. The reason is not as simplified as this article assumes. There are two components to the shoot down. There is Japan and then there is the US. Both are heavily invested in the MDS system. If a shootdown is selected, where do you do so -- over Japan or the Pacific. The point for Japan is to demonstrate to the Japanese people that they have the capability and the SM-3 Aegis destroyers may come into play -- with the PAC-3 Patriots as low-level intercepts. If they opt NOT to shoot down over Japan, then the Ground Based Interceptors (GBI) from Alaska/Vandenberg come into play over the Pacific range or in a trajectory for Alaska. The THAAD GBI supposedly were deployed to Kauai on the Pacific Missile Range. In both cases, there is a risk of failure because of the small launch window. Tests under optimal conditions for the Japanese SM3 in the Pacific and also for the US GBI have been successfully tested. However, under real time, non-optimal conditions, a failure to intercept could be catastrophic in the press -- high expenditure and no success = someone losing their heads. The only reason that the GBIs are being put into play in Hawaii is the PEOPLE of Hawaii are demanding protection. Now if there is a success with the GBI, the DoD will get a substantial boost for GBIs whether they want it or not -- and we know that Gates wants it but had to choose between GBIs and other future procurement assets. We suspect that the behind-the-scenes CIA/DoD folks are orchestrating a scenario for a shootdown in the Pacific. It it a high risk, but the pay-offs will be substantial in positive press for the MDS, increase in security hype, increase in the PEOPLE feeling secure from the perceived North Korean threat (and others), etc. Obama will be forced to become a hawk for political reasons -- and support defense spending...at the expense of his social programs. A interesting trap. But this is all speculation,)




US Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered the THAAD anti-missile system to be deployed in Hawaii. At left, the system successfully intercepted a target in a test conducted on June 25, 2008 at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai.

What's known about missile shield in Hawaii (Jun 2009) A missile defense system yet to be tested in battle could be thrust to the forefront to protect US soil amid concerns that North Korea may be preparing a missile strike that could hit Hawaii. An unconfirmed Japanese media report said recently that Pyongyang was considering a test-fire of its Taepodong-2 ballistic missile in early July that could be within range of the Hawaiian islands. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says the Pentagon is watching the situation "very closely" and is confident of being able to shoot down anything lobbed toward the US.

As a precaution, Mr. Gates has ordered a portable missile defense system called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, or THAAD, to be redeployed on Hawaii. A sea-based sensor system known as SBX, which is designed to alert defense systems to an airstrike within seconds, is also part of the deployment. The THAAD system is now positioned at what's called the Pacific Missile Range on Kauai, say military officials with US Pacific Command, which is headquartered in Hawaii. "[W]ithout telegraphing what we will do, I would just say ... we are in a good position should it become necessary to protect American territory," Gates said Thursday.

The THAAD antimissile system has evolved in fits and starts over the years but it is probably up to the task, says John Pike, an expert on missile defense and director of Globalsecurity.org, a policy organization based in Washington. "It seems to work," he says. "[I]f it were called on to intercept a North Korean warhead, it would successfully do so."

The system has been in various stages of development for about two decades. In its current configuration, THAAD travels on the back of large trucks that elevate the interceptors upward like an inverted garbage truck. The system is typically comprised of a series of such units parked at a launching area. The system has been tested five times successfully but never in combat.

The system, using a "hit to kill" capability, is designed to take out an opposing missile at the end point of its trip, within 100 miles of the THAAD launch point, Mr. Pike says. It is supposed to be able to shoot down a ballistic missile both inside and just outside the earth's atmosphere, according to the US Missile Defense Agency, which says it is "highly effective" against asymmetric ballistic missile threats and "mitigates effects of enemy weapons of mass destruction before they reach the ground."

If North Korea were to launch a missile, it would probably be from one of two launch pads about 4,900 miles away from Hawaii. The North might use the Taepodong-2, a missile that has had its fair share of problems over the years. But Mr. Pike says if the Taepodong-2 launch worked, it could certainly reach Hawaii. But the North may only be trying to escalate tensions to obtain financial or political concessions from the international community. It has a limited number of options short of starting an all-out war with the US – something it probably wants to avoid. "I think the North Koreans are trying to put more rungs in the escalation ladder," Pike says. (Source: Christian Science Monitor.)



Obama bluffs on defending Hawaii (Jun 2009) July 4 could be another day that will live in infamy. The Obama administration seized headlines June 18 when the Defense Department stated that the United States would deploy ground- and sea-based missile-defense assets to protect Hawaii. This was a response to North Korea's threat to launch a long-range missile on July 4 toward the islands. However, new information suggests that the administration is bluffing and our defenses are inadequate to get the job done.

Missile-defense expert Taylor Dinerman told us that the sea-based SM-3 missiles now deployed to "protect" Hawaii are not equipped with adequate software and communications to intercept a missile traveling from North Korea to Hawaii, which would reach a terminal velocity of Mach 23 to 25. The SM-3s are effective only against targets traveling at up to half that speed. It would take about $50 million to upgrade the software to enable a Mach 25 intercept. The Army's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile, which also has been activated after successful tests at Barking Sands on Kauai, "doesn't come close" to being effective against this type of threat, Mr. Dinerman said. (SITE NOTE: IF this is true, then the US option is to use the SM-3s on its and Japanese Aegis destroyers to destroy the missile as it enters Japanese air space BEFORE it reaches terminal velocity. This is one hell of a risky option that would be considered an act of war.)

The Obama administration is stuck in the past on missile defense, repeating worn-out arguments about unproven technologies and destabilizing effects. The Defense Department's 2010 budget proposal cut missile defense by $1.2 billion, and congressional Democrats rebuffed Republican attempts to restore the funding. Justification for the cuts was led by Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher, California Democrat, who is the newly confirmed undersecretary of state for arms control and international security. Ms. Tauscher will play a major role in missile-defense policy.

The cuts include scaling back the number of interceptors based at Fort Greely, Alaska, from 44 to 30. This cut is hard to justify given the proximity to North Korea and the fact that these interceptors actually could bring down one of its missiles (which may explain why Pyongyang is aiming for Hawaii). The Airborne Laser program has been downgraded to a research-and-development effort despite a recent successful test of its target-acquisition system. Taxpayers have invested about $5 billion to bring this advanced technology to the point of fruition. (SITE NOTE: It seems strange that the laser project in Jun 2009 claimed a successful test at the same time that North Korea is ready to launch.)

The Obama administration also has cut funding for the European missile-defense shield, leaving our allies in Poland and the Czech Republic in the lurch after they took a major political risk to support the program. A February Congressional Budget Office study of the proposed European deployment concluded that "none of the alternatives considered by CBO provide as much additional defense of the United States." This retreat makes the United States appear weak before Russian bluster, which doesn't put U.S. leaders on the best footing on the eve of a July 7 Washington-Moscow summit.

Missile defense should be central to the U.S. strategy to dissuade, deter and, if necessary, defeat threats. Instead, we are unilaterally disarming, which only strengthens the strategic logic for our adversaries to produce more missiles. Current policies encourage countries like North Korea, Iran and Syria to move ahead with advanced missile and weapons-of-mass-destruction programs that promise more bang for the buck than expensive conventional forces.

The Obama administration's hostility to missile defense is inexplicable. The missile threat is growing, and defensive technology is increasingly effective, yet the Obama team has dug in stubbornly behind a losing strategy that emboldens our enemies and places us in greater danger. No wonder Hawaiians are nervous. (Source: Washington Post.)

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July 2009

North Korea test-fired four short-range missiles into the East Sea Thursday. (Jul 2009) YAWN....

The Defense Ministry said North Korea fired the first missile at approximately 5:20 p.m. and the second at 6:00 p.m. from its launch base in Sinsang-ri, south of Hamheung City in South Hamgyeong Province. They were followed by two additional launches at 7:50 and 9:20 p.m. A ministry official said the rockets are presumed to be KN-01 antiship missiles with a maximum range of 120 to 160 kilometers. It’s estimated that yesterday’s missiles flew over 100 kilometers. The official says the KN-01 is presumed to be a modified version of the North's Silkworm (CSS-C-2) missile, which has a range of only 83 to 95 kilometers.

The ministry suspects the missile launches may be part of a routine military exercise, but did not rule out the possibility that they were a show of force amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The ministry said the North's missile launches were expected because in June, Pyongyang banned ships from entering a 450-kilometer stretch of sea off its east coast until the tenth of this month. (Source: KBS Global.)

(SITE NOTE: The North is doing these launches for multiple reasons: (1) It is still in a face-off with the South along the NDL (Nautical Demarcation Line) and need to show a brave front. The bottomline is that if they tried a recurrence of the 2002 shooting-war incident this time, the results will be dramatically different. The ROK navy will literally blow the Northern ships out of the water with their ship-to-ship missiles now arrayed.

Thus the missile short-range missile firings (a) increase the morale of the North Korean soldiers as a show of their "might" along the NDL and... (b) it shifts attention away from their Taepdong 2 potential missile launch. Currently the US is poised to shoot down any missile approaching Hawaii. In Hawaii, there are SM-3 missiles and the radar tracking. However, there are also the THAAD missiles of Ft Greeley, AK and Vandenberg AFB, CA also awaiting a chance to shoot something out of the sky as a potential "threat" to the US. This missile shot then could easily turn into an "attack on the US" and the North will be forced into a role of a aggressor against the US -- regardless of all the hype that it was a test or satellite launch or whatever. Currently the North doesn't know what it wants to do.

The relations between the North and China has taken a turn for the worse in the past few weeks and the North is feeling isolated again. It is trying to figure out how to get China back on its side without losing face by backing down on a missile launch. However, there is no guarantee that the erratic North will NOT launch. At times when its military gets antsy, the North has a tendency to do grand gestures to bolster the military ego -- betting that the ROK, US and China will do NOTHING. In this situation, the US MIGHT DO NOTHING -- but that's not a guarantee. The US THAAD has been accused of inaccuracy and staged tests while the SM-3 defense of Hawaii are said to be totally ineffective. If the military does have faith in its missiles, it WILL shoot the North's rocket down just to prove that they can -- and reinstill faith in the system by the American people.)

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A post-launch examination of the Unha-2 (Jul 2009) By David Wright and Theodore A. Postol | 29 June 2009

Article Highlights

• The launch vehicle North Korea tested on April 5, the Unha-2, represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers.
• In particular, it would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of 1 ton or more if Pyongyang modified it for use as a ballistic missile.
• However, if key Unha-2's components were acquired from Russia and elsewhere, North Korea's domestic missile development program may be much more limited than commonly assumed.

North Korea tested a launch vehicle called the Unha-2 from its Musudan-ri launch site in North Hamgyong province on April 5 local time (April 4, 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time). Using information that has become available since the test and information from previous tests, we have conducted a technical analysis that leads to a compelling description of the Unha-2 launcher. This analysis suggests both challenges and potential opportunities.

In particular, our analysis shows that the Unha launcher represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers and would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of 1 ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile.

On the other hand, the Unha launcher appears to be constructed from components that probably weren't manufactured in North Korea. It's likely that these critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, most notably Russia, although likely without the involvement of the Russian government. If these guesses are true, it could mean that North Korea's indigenous missile capability could be significantly constrained if Pyongyang is denied further access to such components.

The April launch.

North Korea announced in February that it was preparing the launch of an "experimental communications satellite" named the Kwangmyongsong 2. No details about this satellite are publicly known, but North Korean reports indicated that it was intended to broadcast patriotic songs from low Earth orbit. This would be similar to what the Iranian Omid satellite did earlier this year, and the first Chinese satellite (Dong Fang Hong 1) did in 1970.

The size and mass of the North Korean satellite aren't known. The Iranian satellite was a cube that measured 40 centimeters on each side with a mass of 27 kilograms; the first Chinese satellite was roughly spherical with a diameter of 1 meter and a mass of 173 kilograms. Photos of the satellite North Korea was said to have used in its 1998 launch attempt show a design resembling the Chinese satellite, although the North Korean satellite is thought have had a much smaller mass. Both satellites resembled the U.S. Telstar 1 communication satellite, which was launched in 1962; it had a diameter of 0.88 meters and mass of 77 kilograms.

For the first time, North Korea announced the launch in advance PDF and listed launch hazard zones for aircraft and ships, indicating the areas where it expected the first two stages of the launcher would return to Earth. This indicated the launcher would have three stages, since the final stage would remain in orbit near the satellite after a successful launch. North Korea also announced that it was joining the Outer Space Treaty, a step that may have been intended to reinforce its claim that it was attempting a satellite launch rather than a ballistic missile test. A successful launch would, of course, provide useful information about technical capabilities that could be used for developing a ballistic missile.

The launch was monitored by a range of U.S. and Japanese land-, sea-, and air-based sensors. While the United States hasn't released information about the launch, information on the launcher and the trajectories of the first two stages has appeared in several public sources.

The launch direction was nearly due east, which is consistent with a satellite launch since it allows the launcher to gain maximum speed from the Earth's rotation. But this direction raised concerns in Japan since it carried the second and third stages of the launcher over the relatively sparsely populated northern end of the main Japanese island of Honshu early in flight.

The locations of the splashdown points of the first two stages reported in the Japanese press and by the Japanese Defense Agency indicate that both stages fell within the announced splashdown zones, suggesting that these stages worked essentially as planned. However, both stages apparently landed near the front edges of those zones, which may suggest that the thrust was somewhat lower than expected or that the guidance system didn't place the launcher on the planned trajectory.

The first stage reportedly fell into the Sea of Japan 540 kilometers from the launch site and 300 kilometers from Japan. The second stage successfully ignited and separated from the first stage, carrying the rocket over Japan at an altitude of about 400 kilometers. The only previous time North Korea had demonstrated the ability to separate and ignite an upper stage was during its unsuccessful August 1998 attempt to place a small satellite in orbit with its Taepodong-1 launcher.

Japanese reports state that the second stage splashed down in the Pacific Ocean approximately 3,200 kilometers from the launch site, although one report cites U.S. officials saying that it landed 600-700 kilometers further. The second stage was on a trajectory that reportedly carried it to a maximum altitude of 485 kilometers. (See, for example, this Chunichi Shimbun article; this analysis PDF from the Japanese Ministry of Defense; the Spaceflight Now article, "North Korean Rocket Flew Further than Earlier Thought"; and this JoongAng Daily article.) The third stage may have separated from the second stage, but it apparently didn't ignite and fell into the Pacific Ocean with the satellite it was carrying, near where the second stage splashed down. If the third stage had ignited, Japanese sensors were in a good position to see it as it passed over Japan.

North Korea's announcement of its launch suggests that it planned for the launcher's engines to burn for a total of 542 seconds, and that it had planned to place the satellite in an orbit of 490 kilometers by 1,426 kilometers. This would require the launcher to reach a speed of 7.88 kilometers per second to insert it into orbit at an altitude of 490 kilometers. Based on our analysis of the launcher, we estimate that the mass of the satellite plus the deployment mechanism and the structure that attached the satellite to the third stage may have been about 300 kilograms.

Analysis of the Unha-2.

Combining this information with results of analyses of past tests and computer modeling of the launcher allows us to develop a fairly detailed understanding of the Unha-2. While some uncertainties in missile parameters remain, calculations using this model of the launcher are consistent with all of the known data about the launch and show that it could have placed a satellite with a mass of a few hundred kilograms into orbit at about an altitude of 500 kilometers.

The Unha-2 launcher was expected to be a three-stage variant of the Taepodong-2 missile that North Korea began developing in the 1990s but has never successfully launched. We conclude from our analysis that the second and third stages of the launcher represent significantly more advanced technology than North Korea has launched in the past. We believe that it's extremely unlikely that these technologies were indigenously produced by North Korea.

Pyongyang has released a video showing the launcher shortly before and during launch; these pictures allowed us to determine the relative sizes of the launcher's stages. Assuming the first-stage diameter is 2.4 meters, which is the diameter that has long been discussed for the first stage of the Taepodong-2 missile, fixes the rest of the dimensions. These are shown here PDF. Based on the dimensions of the stages, we can estimate their masses using estimates of the structure mass and the density of the propellant.

Overall, the launcher has a length of roughly 30 meters and a mass of 80-85 metric tons. We believe the first stage uses a cluster of four Nodong engines housed in a single missile casing and sharing a common fuel tank. The Nodong engine is essentially a scaled-up version of the engine used in the Soviet Scud-B missile. This engine is likely of Russian origin.

The video shows the first 20 seconds of the launch. By measuring the distance the launcher moves as a function of time in these videos, we determined the thrust-to-weight ratio of the Unha vehicle at launch. Using estimates of the mass of the Unha launcher, we then estimated the thrust at liftoff generated by the engines.

The sizes and shapes of stages two and three are completely consistent with known stages from other rockets. Both stages appear to use technology that's more advanced than North Korea has used in previous launches. The second stage appears identical to the single-stage Soviet R-27 sea-launched ballistic missile, called the SS-N-6 in the United States, which the Soviet Union first deployed in 1968. There have been reports for years that North Korea had acquired some number of SS-N-6 missiles in the 1990s and was modifying them for use as an intermediate-range missile. Reports also have stated that in 2005 Iran bought 18 SS-N-6 missiles from North Korea.

The SS-N-6 uses liquid fuels (unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide) that are more advanced than those used in the Scud-B; therefore, it has a high thrust for its size. Since it was designed for a submarine, the missile has a compact design with a lightweight aluminum casing; it is reported to have a range of 2,400 kilometers with a 650-kilogram warhead. (For more information about the SS-N-6, see Pavel Podvig's Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces.)

North Korea's use of this stage would explain why the Unha-2's second-stage diameter is smaller than the first-stage diameter. The diameter of the first stage is determined in part by the volume of fuel it must carry. Designing a second stage with the same diameter would reduce the structural mass of the second stage compared to a longer, thinner stage. But if North Korea utilized an existing, advanced missile body with a lightweight structure for this stage, this design decision would make sense.

The third stage appears to be very similar, if not identical, to the upper stage of the Iranian Safir-2 launch vehicle, which placed a small satellite in orbit in February. This appears to be a concrete indication of cooperation between the Iranian and North Korean programs. Based on an analysis of the Iranian Safir-2 launcher, this stage appears to use the small steering motors from the SS-N-6 for propulsion. Therefore, the Unha-2 appears to use a third stage with liquid rather than solid fuel, unlike the Taeopdong-1 launcher.

The SS-N-6 steering engines have a relatively small thrust--the maximum thrust of the pair of engines is less than 15 percent of the thrust of the main SS-N-6 engine. Thus, this stage can accelerate a relatively small stage and small satellite into orbit, but it wouldn't have enough thrust to accommodate a much heavier payload.

Ballistic missile capability.

North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, but it isn't thought to have designed a nuclear warhead that could be delivered by a missile. Such a first-generation plutonium warhead could have a mass of 1,000 kilograms or more.

If the Unha-2 was designed to launch a relatively lightweight satellite, its structure may not allow it to carry a 1,000-kilogram warhead. If it could, we estimate that it could have a range of 10,000-10,500 kilometers, allowing it to reach Alaska, Hawaii, and roughly half of the lower 48 states. If a 1,000-kilogram payload were instead launched by the first two stages of this missile, it would have a range of 7,000-7,500 kilometers. This would allow it to reach Alaska and parts of Hawaii, but not the lower 48 states. (It's worth noting that North Korea already has a missile capability against Japan with its Nodong missile, which is believed to have a range of 1,000-1,300 kilometers with a 700-1,000-kilogram payload.)

Although nothing is known about the Unha-2's guidance-and-control system, it's likely derived from the SS-N-6, which we expect would be used to control the SS-N-6 steering motors during the second and third stages. Due to both higher reentry speeds and the longer range of the Unha-2, such a guidance system probably would produce inaccuracies of roughly 10 kilometers or more. North Korea hasn't demonstrated a reentry heat shield for a missile of this range. The reentry heating increases rapidly with the reentry speed of a missile, so a 10,000-kilometer range missile would require a much better heat shield than that developed for the Nodong missile. Since heat-shield techniques and materials have been developed for more than 40 years, North Korea should be able to develop an adequate heat shield, although the heat shield could be a major source of missile inaccuracy.

To develop a launcher with greater satellite-launch capability or a missile with longer range, there are several steps North Korea might take if it had the technical capability. For example, it could replace the third stage of the Unha-2 with a stage that has a higher thrust and a shorter burn time. It also could improve the thrust of the first stage by using more advanced propellants and decreasing its structural weight by making the body out of lightweight materials such as aluminum alloys.

That said, gaining substantially more capability would require North Korea to build a significantly larger missile. For example, China launched its first satellite on the Long March 1 launcher, which was similar in size and capability to the Unha-2 but had a more advanced first stage. However, for its first intercontinental ballistic missile (the Dong Feng-5), China developed a much larger missile, with a first-stage diameter of 3.35 meters (compared to 2.4 meters for the Unha-2) and an overall mass of 183 metric tons--twice the mass of the Unha-2. This missile was able to carry 3 tons to a range of 12,000 kilometers. It also was modified to become the Long March 2 space-launch vehicle, which was able to place more than 1 ton into low Earth orbit--a much greater capability than the Unha-2.

Limits on North Korea's missile development.

While Pyongyang has demonstrated the ability to launch rockets of increasing range over the past 20 years, this progress may have depended strongly on foreign assistance and technology. If true, North Korea may face important limits on its program.

The general assumption for many years was that in the late 1980s North Korea successfully reverse engineered the Soviet Scud missile and began producing its own version. Following that, it was thought to have scaled up the Scud engine to produce a larger engine to power the Nodong missile. But there's growing evidence that North Korea received significant technical assistance from Soviet/Russian missile designers--although not necessarily with the involvement of the Soviet/Russian government--and that its missile program may rely in large part on rocket engines and other key components that it acquired from Russia.

First, press accounts in the early 1990s reported that dozens or hundreds of Russian missile experts attempted to travel to North Korea; some were stopped in Russia, but others reportedly began working in North Korea. These experts were said to have come from the Makeyev Missile Design Bureau in Russia, which produced the Scud-B and extended-range Scud-C missiles, the SS-N-6, and other liquid-fueled missiles. This was at a time when Russia was facing severe economic distress and North Korea was reportedly offering high salaries and good money for missiles and technology.

Second, North Korea isn't believed to have conducted the level of missile testing that typically is seen for reverse engineering or developing a successful indigenous production capability, either for its Scuds or Nodongs. In addition to conducting relatively few tests, the success rate of those tests was very high. (See Robert Schmucker's presentation at the 12th Multinational Conference on Theater Missile Defense, "Third World Missile Development--A New Assessment Based on UNSCOM Field Experience and Data Evaluation.") This is especially surprising given the difficulty other countries have had in developing these technologies. For example, the history of the Iraqi Scud program shows that Baghdad was unable to successfully develop key components such as turbopumps and combustion chambers, and instead built its missiles using components that it had acquired from abroad.

Third, recent analysis has shown that the velocity curves for Soviet Scuds and Iranian Scuds, which were likely purchased from North Korea, are essentially identical. (See Schmucker and Markus Schiller's presentation at the 2008 Symposium on Missile Defense/Theatre Missile Defense.) This wouldn't be expected if the Scuds had been reverse engineered and strongly suggests that these missiles were either Soviet-made or were manufactured with Russian help and equipment and to Russian specifications.

Some analysts have speculated that Soviet missile producers may have transferred large numbers of Scud-C missiles to and through North Korea after the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty restricted the Soviet Union from deploying these missiles. The small number and high success rate of Nodong missile tests further suggests that the Nodong engine was an existing engine supplied by Russian engineers.

Analysis of the Taepodong-1 and Unha-2 launchers strongly suggests that they may be designed and built around components of Soviet missiles. The apparent lack of testing of these components by North Korea suggests that they aren't indigenously produced systems but are existing components that North Korea has been able to combine to build multistage launchers. The Taepodong-1 appears to have used PDF a modified Nodong missile for the first stage; a modified engine from a Soviet surface-to-air missile for the second stage; and the engine from a solid-fueled Soviet SS-21 tactical missile for the third stage. As noted above, the second stage of the Unha-2 appears to be a modified SS-N-6 missile, which was produced by the Makeyev bureau in the 1960s.

It's possible that North Korea learned, with significant Russian assistance, to manufacture Scuds and Nodongs and is therefore not limited in its number of these missiles, assuming it can acquire the necessary materials. But this is much less likely for the SS-N-6, which is a far more advanced system due to its use of highly optimized rocket motors, very energetic propellant, and a complex airframe fabricated from aluminum alloy.

None of this evidence is conclusive, but because it has important policy implications, it should be a high priority for the United States to assess it and work with Russia to determine what technical assistance and components North Korea may have received.

Final thoughts.

If North Korea isn't able to build some key rocket components, then its missile program may rely on combining existing components in clever ways. It has shown that it's capable of doing so, as well as building missile bodies. The result is launchers with the potential to launch significant payloads to U.S. territory.

But if North Korea's missile program relies on foreign components, then this could significantly limit what steps North Korea may be able to take in the near term to increase the capability of its launchers. Moreover, if North Korea's missile program depends on a stockpile of components that it has acquired from abroad, then this would imply that North Korea's domestic missile development program is much more limited than is commonly assumed, and that North Korea understands it has a dead-end program if its supply of these components is limited.

In that case, North Korea may have a much higher incentive to negotiate its missile program away than is commonly assumed. This view is consistent with past experience, including Israel's reported success in reaching an agreement to buy North Korea's missile program in the early 1990s in return for money and help with mining technology (a deal that was apparently shelved at the request of the United States, which was negotiating the Agreed Framework); the interest in missile negotiations North Korea expressed to the United States late in the Clinton administration; and the missile flight test moratorium that North Korea observed for seven years starting in 1998. (Source: The Bulletin.)

October 2009

N.Korea Test-Fires 5 Short-Range Missiles (Oct 2009) A South Korean official says North Korea test-fired five short-range missiles Monday off the east coast of the communist state. The official says North Korea warned vessels to avoid its east coast from Oct. 10 to 20, an indication that it was planning missile launches. No other details of the missile test were available. North Korea has carried out several short-range missile tests in recent years off its east and west coasts. South Korean officials have interpreted them as routine military exercises. (SITE NOTE: Japan’s coast guard said the North had warned of “firing exercises” day and night until October 25 in the Yellow Sea ... Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Jung Ok-Keun told South Korean lawmakers the KN-02 missiles fired Monday have a range estimated between 130-160 kilometres (80-100 miles), greater than the 120 kilometres previously believed. The foreign ministry said the launches breached UN Security Council resolutions banning ballistic missile tests, and urged the North not to repeat them. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told reporters in Tokyo that if the launch reports were correct, “I think it’s very regrettable.” (Source: AFP.))

Earlier, South Korea proposed holding talks with North Korea on Wednesday on preventing flooding from a cross-border river. North Korea released a massive amount of water from a dam on the Imjin river last month, killing six South Koreans camping and fishing downstream. Pyongyang said a sudden surge in the dam's water level required an emergency release. Seoul said there were signs the water release was meant as a deliberate attack. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: The entire Korean community was shaking their heads wondering -- WHY??? First North Korea had opened the possibility of multi-lateral talks -- and the US was holding one-on-one talks (not bilateral talks). Suddenly the North does this? It didn't make sense.)

Seoul on Alert for More N.Korean Missile Tests (Oct 2009) The South Korean military is on the alert for more North Korean short-range missile tests after the North declared a navigation ban also in the West Sea after firing five short-range missiles into the East Sea on Monday. A government source said, "It seems that after making a similar decision for the East Sea, North Korea also banned navigation in waters off Jungsan-gun and Munduk-gun, South Pyongan Province until about Oct. 20. Although there are no concrete signs of preparations for missile tests yet, we're watching closely" in the West Sea.

Seoul is considering a response in the belief that the North violated UN Security Council resolutions by firing the missiles. Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young said the tests violate UNSC resolutions 1695, 1718 and 1874 banning all activities related to ballistic missiles. "We once again urge North Korea to fulfill duties specified in the UNSC resolutions," he added. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday said the U.S. has no intention of easing sanctions against the North. In a press conference with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, Clinton said, "We have absolutely no intention of relaxing or offering to relax North Korean sanctions at this point whatsoever." She added the U.S. is willing to talks to the North if it returns to the six-party talks on its own, but that the goal of the talks should be a "complete end" of the North Korean nuclear program. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: ROK Drop stated: The KN-02 is based on the Soviet SS-21 short-range missile technology that is used at the tactical level, which North Korea received from Syria during the early 1990s. The North Koreans have tested this missile before so it isn’t like they are unveiling something new from their arsenal. What is significant about this missile is that it flies a cruise missile profile that makes it difficult for PATRIOT missile batteries located in South Korea to intercept. Also if you look at the range of the missile tested yesterday, if fired from around the DMZ area it could reach every US military installation on the peninsula all the way down to Camp Humphreys. The missile also uses solid fuel which means no fueling of the missile is necessary before being launched. This means that this system is very mobile and can be launched at a moments notice. This is why the North Koreans have likely been conducting so many tests of this missile the past few years. What I find interesting about this is that the South Korean and Japanese government are getting worked up over this missile test violating UN sanctions when it is small fries compared to the fact that the Chinese government just last week just signed a major economic package with the North Koreans in violation of UN sanctions and no one said a word. (Source: ROK Drop.)

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N. Korea to continue missile tests for upgraded version: expert (Oct 2009) North Korea is expected to continue short-range missile tests with the aim of developing an advanced KN-06 missile, according to a U.S. expert. Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the RAND Corp., said that the North's launch of five KN-02 missiles on Oct. 12 was part of efforts to develop a more advanced KN-06 missile, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported Saturday. The KN-02, an upgraded version of the Russian SS-21, is known to have a range of up to 120 kilometers. (Source: Yonhap News.)

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