Impacts after the 9-11 Tragedy?

A Chinese commentator said: "9-11 may have changed everything for Americans, but not for Asians. What has changed things for us is the way America responded to 9-11.'' The following is from CBS News sources:

In July 2002, the Israeli Philharmonic Orchestra canceled a U.S. concert tour because no American company would take the risk and provide insurance. It's the first time the orchestra was forced to cancel a foreign tour because of fears of terrorist attacks.

According to the CIA, its recruitment of foreign spies who can provide intelligence on terrorists has increased by 50 percent since 9/11. The agency had faced criticism for not having an adequate network of foreign agents with ties to groups like al Qaeda.

Near San Francisco's airport are some great fishing spots. But sportsmen cannot fish there since 9/11. The same kind of security measure is in place throughout the U.S., especially near bridges and dams, as well as sources of drinking water.

Expanded police power under the Patriot Act, instituted in October 2001, makes it possible for authorities with the necessary court orders to track your paths on the Internet and even read your email, especially if you are suspected of having links to terrorism.

Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda: The first known videotape of Osama bin Laden referencing the Sept. 11 attacks surfaced on Oct. 7, 2001, the same day the U.S. and Britain started bombing Afghanistan. Following that the release of that tape, the U.S. government urged news organizations to be cautious when airing the terror mastermind's unedited statements, voicing concerns that he might use them to send coded messages to his fighters. Since then, portions of several new tapes have been released by the Arabic television network Al-Jazeera, American television networks or the Pentagon; others have been mentioned by governments and the press but not made public.

Gary Markstein, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, WI (Nov 02)

On January 8, 2002, the U.S. stated that Osama bin Laden was not in the Tora Bora cave complex. The search continues. Most intelligence analysts think bin Laden is holed up in Pakistan's border zone by sympathizers among the 3 million residents of dusty Peshawar, the chief city of the Northwest Frontier.

In November a recorded message broadcast on Al-Jazeera, the Arab news service, was almost certainly the voice of Osama bin Laden with an 80 percent probability. On the audiotape, bin Laden ridiculed Bush as a "pharaoh" and foreshadowed catastrophic future attacks on the West. It predicted that al-Qaeda's enemies "will be killed just as you kill and will be bombed just as you bomb. And expect more that will further distress you." For nearly a year, the question loomed: had bin Laden been killed in the devastating U.S. bombing campaign, or had he somehow managed to escape and lie low, possibly in the lawless border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan? This tape answered the question. Though the tape is scratchy and cannot be positively identified, the tape mentions recent terrorist events (i.e. Bali) that could not have been pasted in.

Time Magazine stated, "With almost certain confirmation that bin Laden is alive, the discussion turns back to how serious a threat he is and why he can't be caught. In a Time/CNN poll, a sizable portion, 42%, of Americans surveyed said the tape made them more worried about impending terrorist attacks, although 56% remained at the same level of anxiety. The voice on the tape calmly and chillingly predicts that al-Qaeda's enemies "will be killed just as you kill and will be bombed just as you bomb. And expect more that will further distress you." While there's no real pattern in forewarnings from al-Qaeda, intelligence analysts take the words at face value. A recorded al-Jazeera broadcast from bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri in early October was followed by the deadly bombing in Bali that killed more than 180. The voice's condemnation of key allies in the U.S. antiterrorism war—Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Australia—put foreign governments on alert for another major hit. Bin Laden also named Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld—he calls them "the White House gangsters"—and that has counterterrorism experts worried those officials might be personally targeted. "

Following the tape's release in November, a statement attributed to al Qaeda called on Americans to become Muslims and warned of new terror attacks in Washington and New York unless the United States stopped supporting Israel.

World Trade Center 2002

The Korean View: Washington's "either you're with us or against us'' approach has caused even those who traditionally have not been very sympathetic toward the U.S. to appear supportive -- or at least to maintain a lower profile. After President Bush's branding of North Korea as part of the infamous ``axis of evil,'' tensions mounted in Korea. The North claimed it was tantamount to war -- but never really increased movements except for rhetoric. In truth, September 11 provided an opportunity for Pyongyang to improve relations with Washington, but Pyongyang choose not to seize the moment. Pyongyang continued to steadfastly reject offers by Washington to hold talks ``any time, any place, without preconditions.''

During President Bush's visit to Seoul in February 2001, he did a good job in toning down his comments regarding North Korea and, more importantly, in reaffirming his support for President Kim when the two met in Seoul. However, any good relations disappeared in the wake of the Korean reaction to the Winter Olympic's todo over a Korean speed skater.

The major strains in U.S.-ROK relations predated 9-11. They date back to ROK President Kim Dae-jung's poorly-handled March 2001 visit to Washington. One of the first acts that George Bush did when he came to power was hold a meeting in Washington with Kim Dae-jung in which he said they would support the "engagement policies" with North Korea -- but that basically his giveaway "sunshine policy" was not realistic in the Republican conservative viewpoint. The "axis'' comment underscored the problem, it didn't create it. The Korean people should have seen the "confrontational" stance with North Korea coming. As to preemptive strikes, this is something new. However, people have also forgotten that Bill Clinton was ready to make a smoking hole of North Korea in 1991 with pre-emptive strikes when they were having the nuclear inspection and WMD problems with Kim Il-Sung. This last comment was reported by former President Kim Young-sam in an interview two years ago.

Axis of Evil and Preemptive strikes: The lessons learned in Afghanistan are still being assimilated. For the present, there won't be any major changes in the force structure at Kunsan under the Bush-Rumsfield "vision." However, there may be some changes in the future.

The game plan for Korea is tossing aside Clinton's full acceptance of the Kim Dae-jung "Sunshine Policy" and taking a more adversarial stance -- keying in on the North Korean missile threat and terrorism. In January 2002, the Koreans newspaper editorials were sounding off about the statements of the U.S. ambassador -- and the Bush envoys to North Korea -- dealing with North Korea's continued "terrorist" activities. Currently, Bush called Iraq, Iran and North Korea the "axis of evil", but Colin Powell tried to smooth peoples feathers down that this was just rhetoric. However, Bush just asked for one billion dollars to back up his "rhetoric." (NOTE: What strikes many Asian observers as ironic is that China is pointedly missing from the list -- regardless that it ships missiles to Iran and is the greatest distributor of weapons of Mass Destruction.) This may change the mission of Kunsan. Currently, Kunsan mission is based upon reacting to a North Korean attack. Following the Bush line -- and actions in Afghanistan -- a first-strike potential may be considered.

Following Bush's new line of thinking, pre-emptive strikes have become a possibility. In the past, strikes have been mostly retaliatory. However, now Bush wants to "take the war to the enemy." In the February 7, 2002 edition of The Christian Science Monitor it stated, "In a controversial expansion of the Bush doctrine - the unilateralist "with us or with the terrorists" foreign policy that followed Sept. 11 - the administration is making a stark argument for striking first." It went on, "Defending against terrorism and other emerging 21st century threats may well require that we take the war to the enemy," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said last week in a speech at the National Defense University."

Bush has somehow started to enmesh his "war on terrorism" with his agenda for the halting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Bush combined the two when he targeted Iran, Iraq and North Korea as nations that support terrorism with WMD. Bush's "axis of evil" remark in his State of the Union address touched off a firestorm in Korea. Korea is worried -- and justifiably so -- that the "sunshine policy" of Kim Dae-jung will be mired down in any confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea.

A Los Angeles Times article on February 7, 2002 stated, "Now, South Korea is in political turmoil over Bush's remarks and the suggestion that the war against terrorism could spill over to the Korean peninsula. Newspaper editorials have labeled the U.S. president a "cowboy" bent on war, while labor unions, church groups and a Buddhist association are among those that have issued statements this week accusing Bush of endangering world peace. The uproar has to do with one simple sentence in the Jan. 29 speech, in which Bush said, "North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction while starving its citizens."

The article went on, "Gen. Thomas Schwartz, commander of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, testified last March before Congress that the North has 1.2 million soldiers on active duty and that it commands the largest submarine fleet in the world. Even after President Kim made a historic visit to Pyongyang in June 2000, North Korea continued to mass forces near the demilitarized zone between the two countries, becoming an ever more serious threat to South Korea and to the 37,000 U.S. troops stationed here, Schwartz said. ... "The perception of a peaceful peninsula differs from reality," Schwartz testified. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il "stubbornly adheres to his 'military first' policy, pouring huge amounts of his budget resources into the military. . . . As a result, his military forces are bigger, better, closer and deadlier." Two declassified CIA reports released last month gave similarly dire assessments of North Korea. The agency said in a report made public after Bush's speech that North Korea is "capable of producing and delivering via missile warheads or other munitions a wide variety of chemical agents and possibly some biological agents." The report also said that, before the 1994 freeze on its nuclear program, the Communist nation had accumulated enough plutonium for at least one nuclear weapon."

No one refutes that North Korea has WMD. No one refutes that North Korea has engaged in the past in terrorism. No one refutes that North Korea has continued to engage in terrorism by continuing to insert agents into South Korea. It is the change in the U.S. position that worries everyone. In addition, most US Intelligence Community (IC) agencies believe the US could face intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly from Iraq, before 2015. Thus no one is griping that the North Koreans are a threat.

It's the possibility of a pre-emptive strike policy and the "Take-it or Leave-it" attitudes of the Bush administration that are frightening the Koreans. The bottomline is that a preemptive strike -- regardless of who launches it -- will cost both sides tens of thousands of civilians lives on both sides in the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is the total destruction of both North and South Korea economies and infrastructure with death tolls in the millions.

Deputy Secretary of State Armitage stated in March 2002, that the possibility of using nuclear weapon in case of war in the peninsula would be considered as one of the possible OPTIONS when planning military strategy. However, he was confident that the USFK and ROK forces would hold back an attack. He stated also that if North Korea continued to export missiles, the Bush Administration considers intercepting or destroying the arms shipment vessel as an option.

In March 2002, the option to use a "preemptive strike" was being aimed at Iraq -- and the world was abuzz with nations taking sides. Though a coalition would be preferred, the U.S. had stated openly that it will go it alone if it had to. After Afghanistan, the world was taking this warning seriously.

In Korea, the cannon's sights could just as well be shifted to North Korea. Some felt that North Korea's Kim Jong-Il had taken this very seriously as the gun sights were aimed at his head after Bush pointedly remarked on the DPRK's continued spread of weapons of mass destruction. At first there was no immediate reaction from the DPRK besides the usual bluff-and-bluster of the years past. Then suddenly there was a dramatic shift in its openess in admitting to past transgressions that diplomatically opened doors -- and at the same time slammed doors shut.

GO TO Sunshine Policy Saved at 11th Hour: FOR CONTINUATION OF STORY.

Sunshine Policy Saved: 11th Hour Negotiations Lead to Family Reunions and Start on the Railway/Road links between North-South Korea

Kim Dae-jung

The Nobel Peace Prize winner's personal image was severely tarnished by two of his sons being convicted of influence peddling and bribery. Because of this he admitted that this was a low-point in his life. (NOTE: His second son Kim Hong-Up, 53, was sentenced to three and a half years in prison in October for accepting millions of dollars from businessmen through influence peddling with a million dollar fine. However, former President Kim Young-Sam's son was sentenced to prison for similar charges and was pardoned by Kim Dae-jung. A similar Presidential pardon is probably just an election away. His youngest son Kim Hong-Gul, 38, was convicted of accepting bribes and evading taxes in November and received a two-year suspended sentence with a $164,000 fine.)

Sunshine Policy Looks Doomed: The relations with the North was troubled by President Bush's stance that the North was part of the "Axis of Evil." Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy looked to be doomed after a naval engagement occurred in June. A South Korean ship was sunk and there appeared to be little chance that any negotiations would take place. The engagement seemed to confirm that the 60-year-old leader of the world's most reclusive country was not a man to be trusted if he approved the attack. The North did not apologize -- though it did extend its condolences and sorrow over the loss of life.

The South did not press the issue for fear of scuttling the negotiations forever. But Kim Jong-Il had other cards up his sleeve as he shuttled off by train to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Then came an announcement that Kim and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi would hold a summit in Pyongyang in September.

Kim Jong-Il visit to Russia

Situation Flip-flops: Suddenly things flip-flopped. At the 11th hour the North and South agreed to sit down and again hold negotiations. There were all kinds of speculation as to why Kim Jong-Il chose this time to again open negotiations. Some said it was to make an alliance with Japan to get a "Japan Card" to enhance its negotiating position with the U.S. Others said it was to draw away the gun barrel that George Bush had pointed at North Korea's head. Others said that Kim Jong-Il's country was on the verge of imploding if he didn't get some outside economic help fast. For whatever reason, he extended an invitation for multi-national summit negotiations -- something Kim Jong-Il never did before.

As part of the process, a second group of families were allowed to hold reunions at North Korea's Kumgang mountain resort. In September, the fifth inter-Korean family reunions, with 455 silver-haired South Korean men and women met with 100 of their North Korean relatives at Onjonggak in the morning, and boarded the cruiser Solbong back to the South yesterday afternoon. Another 100 people, mostly in the 70s and 80s, went to Mt. Kumgang this morning for the second part of the fifth mass reunions since August 2000.

In May, a South Korean presidential envoy succeeded in acquiring North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's agreement to build another set of rail and road links through the eastern sector of the border, largely aimed at revitalizing the money-losing Mt. Kumgang tourism project.

They are expected to finish the construction of the Mt. Kumgang reunion center by March 2003. The center is expected to benefit a large number of those eagerly awaiting a chance to meet their kin after half a century of separation. There are some 100,000 on South Korea's list alone. Due to limited time and space, the Koreas have been able to send only a hundred people from each side for the five reunions so far.

The North issued an official decree that declared the Geumgang mountain as special district on October 23. According to the new decree passed by the North's Presidium of Supreme People's Assembly, "the new zone will cover part of Seongbuk and Samilpo regions as well as that of Goseong and Tongcheon counties all the way to Haegeum River area." The article went on to say, "The decree specifies any rash development within the mountain region that could harm the natural environment there - trees, water falls, remains of old castle etc., - will be stopped at all cost. Investment from abroad is readily encouraged and the assets of investors will be protected along with exemption of tax, says the book of law. It marks, however the sovereignty of the region will continue to remain to the North. The organization for central tour district will continue to seek ways to expand the tourist zone while Cabinet and other related state agencies ponder on better ways to implement the new decree."

In September, the negotiations agreed to proceed with reconnecting a railway and a parallel road between Seoul and Shinuiju through the western sector of the 4 km-wide border. The negotiators agreed that the troops from both their militaries would start on Sept 19 to tear down barbed wire to build cross-border railways and parallel roads -- and clear mines in the area. Military cooperation is vital to the inter-Korean transportation project because the railways and roads will run through the mine-infested no man's land that divides the peninsula. Hopefully, the link up was projected for completion by the end of 2002.

According to the Korea Times , "The agreement included the establishment of guard posts, each 250 meters away from the military demarcation line, inside two transportation corridors _ the Seoul-Kyongui line _ 250 meters _ and the Tonghae (east coast) line _ 100 meters _ across the border. A code of conduct for the troops of the two militaries, designed to prevent accidental military clashes, specified that no construction of military installations should be allowed other than the guard posts and rail and road links, according to the agreement."

The installation of a hotline, a major step forward in military confidence building measures, has been agreed upon. A hotline was implemented following a joint communique on July 4, 1974, but North Korea unilaterally severed it shortly after the August 1976 ax murder incident, which left two American soldiers dead at the Bridge of No Return inside the DMZ. After the nuclear tensions during Kim Young-Sam's regime and the U.S. on the brink of unilaterally making a smoking hole of the suspected mountain, it was proposed to implement the hot line, but nothing came of it.

Washington Post article stated on 23 September that North and South Korea agreed to set up a military hotline to help liaison as they reconnect rails and roads through their heavily mined DMZ area. It stated, "Previously, the only connection was a rickety Soviet-era landline between the North Korean military and a United Nations guard post in the truce village of Panmunjom in the heart of the Demilitarized Zone bisecting the Korean peninsula." There will eventually be four hotlines -- one for telephone and one for fax on both the east and west coasts of the peninsula along the planned railway routes. The initial line runs along the western routes with the hotlines for the more remote east coast later.

To a casual observers of current Korean history though, these "negotiations" seem rather ironic. Both sides agreed to implement the items they are currently "discussing" as part of their agreements to enter the United Nations as "equal" nations over a decade ago. So much for international treaties. The Postal Service still isn't implemented, the families reunions have been used as "carrots" for negotiations; and the railroads/road still remain unbuilt. To the South's credit, they built the Peace Highway through Seoul to the border in about 1992; and they opened Kumgang Mountain in North Korea as a tourist venue -- though it turned out to be a money-loser.

Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" looked like it would be rescued at the 11th hour. Kim Jong-Il held a summit with Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Sept 2002 to resume normalization talks between the two nations. All of this was seen as Kim Jong-Il getting a "Japan Card" to play in its negotiations with the U.S. -- a move that showed Kim Jong-Il took George Bush's "axis of evil" speech seriously.

Japanese Negotiations and Admission of Abductees: After the North Korean-Japan summit, Japan's Prime Minister Koizumi brought home astonishing news that the North had agreed to an indefinite suspension of its missile program and accepted nuclear inspections. Japan apologized for its occupation of the Korean Peninsula in 1910-45, while North Korea dropped its demand for war reparations. The joint declaration signed after the summit said North Korea would extend its missile moratorium beyond 2003. However, the news that unsettled the Japan's public was that for the first time the North confessed to abducting 11 Japanese citizens to teach their spies how to speak and act like Japanese. The public uproar from this news overshadowed the other achievements of the summit.

American Talks Begin: In light of this new tact of North Korea, the U.S. sent a senior American diplomat, James A. Kelly, to North Korea to end 20 months of internal debate on whether to open talks with a country that Mr. Bush lumped with Iran and Iraq as part of an "axis of evil." This was a significant change of strategy for the administration, which had ended similar negotiations pursued with North Korea by President Clinton shortly before he left office. Everyone in South Korea was cautiously hopeful that the Sunshine Policy would bear fruit in a continued dialogue between the two nations.

Colin Powell & Choe Sung-hong, South Korea Foreign Minister

The talks was seen as a quasi-victory for Colin Powell who had sought this discussion from the start in what he felt were "low-risk" negotiations. When the discussions opened, it was far from clear whether the U.S. administration was willing to compensate North Korea for giving up missile exports. Nor was it clear whether the North would be willing to pull back from the demilitarized zone. With its economy in shambles, the North's ability to wipe out Seoul with a devastating attack is about the only card it still has to play.

According to the White House in September 2002, they intended to have a wide-ranging discussion with North Korea that would cover its missile production and exports, its huge array of conventional weapons within reach of South Korea and its history of repression. There would undoubtedly be revived talk about its nuclear program, which has been frozen since 1994 under an agreement with the United States.

In Sept 2002, James Kelly, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, sat down together with North Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju for the meeting. This was the first high-level bilateral talks since Bush came into office in January 2001 and came at a time when Pyongyang was making a series of overtures to open up to the outside world in a desperate bid to rejuvenate its depressed economy. Kelly addressed U.S. concerns about the North's missile production and sales, nuclear development program, conventional weapons and human rights record and the U.S. might have raised the need for the reclusive nation to accept international inspection of its nuclear activities. In response, North Korea possibly demanded steps to guarantee the survival of its current regime.

North Korean Admission of Nuclear Program: Then the bomb shell hit. In October 2002 the U.S. stated that the North had revealed that it had secretly pursued a nuclear program in violation of its 1994 nuclear accord to receive oil and food in exchange for stopping its nuclear development. According to the Mainichi Shimbun in November, the North's Deputy Foreign Minster Kang Sok-ju also told special envoy Kelly at the time that it would give up its nuclear ambitions if Washington accepted its demands for a non-aggression pact and peace treaty as well as lifting economic sanctions. Kelly was upset at the proposal, the paper said quoting the words of U.S. senior officials. He reportedly left the negotiating table saying "If North Korea thinks that the United States will agree to a new framework because it has broken the Agreed Framework then it is totally mistaken."

This revelation by North Korea could have scuttled everything, but the Seoul authorities viewed it as an opening in the dialogue with the U.S. whereby the North Koreans used a "nuclear trump card" to get a better bargaining position in a "comprehensive package" -- including the nuclear issue -- with the U.S. The progress with clearing of the mines and other inter-Korean agreements were not halted.

Bruce Plante, Chattanooga Times Free Press, TN
(Click on cartoon to enlarge)

Both Seoul and Washington emphasized a "peaceful" resolution but there was a critical, difference between the two allies on how and when work for the peaceful solution should get underway. The two nations' differing responses were due partly to their interpretation of the situation. The U.S. viewed the revelation as in effect negating the 1994 nuclear accord. The South viewed it as a positive sign of North Korea's opening up for a dialogue.

To the U.S., diplomacy and international agreements are based on trust -- and North Korea just showed that its "word" was worthless. The U.S. was gun-shy after being bitten and shied away from the 1994 accord, while the South still wanted its "Sunshine Policy" to work AT ALL COSTS. Japan and South Korea both believed the 1994 pact freezing North Korea's nuclear weapons program had been effective and argued that it should not be scrapped by the U.S. in haste. (See North Korean Strategy: The USFK View for the USFK strategy and positions in Korea.)

North Korea in October did a turn-about and stated that it never really admitted to the nuclear charges and that the U.S. should immediately enter into a non-aggression pact with it to show good faith. In other words, the U.S. should show that it will not make a smoking hole of the nuclear plant as Bill Clinton wanted to do in 1994. (See Kim Young-Sam's interview in May 2000.) Later in November, North Korea went on to further "clarify" its statement saying that it was using its statement as an "example" of how a nation would be justified in continuing the development of nuclear weapons if another nation did not live up to its part of an accord. It continued its denial that it had never admitted saying it had continued nuclear weapons program.

Lacking in generous friends at a time when the economy is crumbling, North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, was out on a limb where he was very vulnerable. A 21 October New York Times article stated, "He has already introduced major reforms aimed at opening the economy, but he appears increasingly unable to resist pressures for more far-reaching changes. Among those changes, some experts say, may be the recent trend toward diplomacy by confession. Faced with the urgent need to fend off economic collapse, Mr. Kim's confession of a uranium-based nuclear weapons program appears to many experts to have been a pragmatic, if ultimately misguided response to an insurmountable obstacle: a Bush Administration that had little interest in engagement."

At this point, Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" was in serious trouble. However, the Korean people wanted reunification of the peninsula so badly that they were willing to overlook this latest "confession" by North Korea and view it in a positive light. They accepted it as "diplomacy by confession" -- a rather strange way of looking at things.

Though the U.S.-North Korea dialogue ceased, negotiations with South Korea continued without a break. However, the negotiations were showing signs of strain as South Korea urged North Korea to renounce its nuclear program. As the world started to chime in on "urging" North Korea to give up its nuclear program, the North started to "sweeten the pot" for the South by agreeing to many areas. In October an agreement was reached for a "permanent" reunion location near Mt. Pakdu in North Korea for the highly emotional issue of the reunification of families. The North has already started clearing the village in preparation to construction of the facilities. The clearing of the mines in the DMZ by both Koreas continued as business-as-usual. However, the thing that the South wished to disregard at this point in time -- as it wants the Sunshine Policy to succeed so dearly -- was that whatever the North promises on paper, they can renege on at a later date -- just like the 1994 accord.

Japanese Negotiations Turn Sour: Japan continued its talks for normalization with the North. The North as a "sign of goodwill" allowed five Japanese who were kidnapped to return home -- but kept their families in North Korea to assure their return. When things started turning sour, the Japanese "extended" the visit of the kidnapped Japanese when they indicated that they did not want to return to North Korea. The five abductees, including two married couples, have publicly declared their intention to stay on here and wait for their loved ones to join them in Japan, even though the visit was initially intended to last about two weeks. One of the returnees, Hitomi Soga, has a husband, Charles Jenkins, who deserted from the U.S. Army along the DMZ in 1965. The two have two teenage daughters.

The North was incensed by this move and the Japanese stated that they would take it to the U.N. if pushed -- how could they "return" people who were kidnapped in the first place and did not want to return. Many Japanese doubted the stories of the circumstances of other abductees declared deceased by the North Koreans. The abductees had become political pawns.

Japan urged the North to renounce its nuclear program but was rebuffed. Tokyo said it was willing to consider giving Pyongyang economic aid, which could substitute for compensation for the 1910-1945 colonial rule of Korea by Japan, after solving the issues of the abduction and nuclear development by the North. At this point, the North strongly hinted that it was returning to its missile development programs causing Japan's leadership to reconsider joining in developing a missile shield. The North had voluntarily shut down its ICBM missile development in 1998. As a result, the Japanese negotiations for normalization broke down. However, the Japanese stepped lightly in its diplomatic language to keep the doors open for future dialogue.

North Korea Isolated: By mid-November, the chill on the "Sunshine Policy" was reaching sub-zero temperatures. North Korea accused South Korea of dangerous military provocation by sending warships into its territorial waters and moving tanks and guns along their border. KCNA said it was clear that the Southern "provocations" were aimed at raising tension between the rival states and warned Seoul it should "think twice" about the consequences.

Pyongyang's official daily, Rondon Sinmun, said the North would continue to develop its military strength to defend itself from the United States. "The DPRK will continue to increase its military capacity for self-defense to cope with the US imperialists' escalated moves for aggression and their policy to stifle Pyongyang with nuclear weapons," the daily said.

U.S. Moves to Cut Off KEDO Oil and Food Aid: The fly-in-the-ointment was the U.S. who stirred up a hornet's nest internationally over North Korea's admittal of its nuclear capability. The U.S. stated that it no longer felt bound to send heating oil to North Korea, though the final decision rested with KEDO -- though all knew the consortium would follow the U.S. lead for solidarity sake. The United States disclosed at the last KEDO meeting that the North still holds about 50,000 metric tons of heavy fuel prompting both South Korea and Japan to agree on final decision to suspend heavy oil. With its KEDO supplied heavy oil cut off and then the food aid cut off or "delayed" by others, it was starting to feel the pinch. (See KEDO oil for U.S. position.)

To increase the economic pressure on North Korea, on November 28 the U.S. announced it would stop food aid to North Korea -- at least temporarily. The U.S., one of the North's major food donors, has provided 155,000 tons of food to the North this year, meeting its pledge. He said the halt to new donations was a result of a lack of funds to provide additional aid. In a separate issue, the U.S. Agency for International Development said North Korea has not yet responded to U.S. demands for better monitoring of food aid to prevent diversions to the military or to North Korea's elite. The United States also wants better access to food recipients to ensure that they are receiving the aid they need. The U.S. Embassy in Seoul stressed that the U.S. calls for better access are related to any additional aid above and beyond the pledged amounts. The basic donations were provided with no such strings attached, but any further aid will require U.S. monitoring. Though the U.S. claims that its donations to North Korea stem from humanitarian considerations and has nothing to do with issues such as the North's nuclear weapons program, no one really believes that.

The World Food Program, which feeds one-third of the North Korean population, called urgently for additional food aid last week to counter what it called a crisis that has already cut rations to 3 million North Koreans in the western part of the country for the last two months. The UN aid agency complained that major donors, including Japan, had delayed their shipments of promised aid. By early 2003, food rations would be ended for an additional 1.6 million people unless more help is forthcoming, the agency said. A World Food Program spokesman, Gerald Bourke, said improvements in the monitoring system to prevent food diversions are already in place.

GO TO North Korea Amassing Chemical Weapons, Continuing its Nuclear Weapons Program & Asks for Russian Military Aid FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE NORTH'S NUCLEAR ISOLATION STORY. South Korea continued contact with North Korea (see below) though U.S. and Japan talks stalled.

Problems with Mine Clearing Operations: The two Koreas agreed to reconstruct two sets of railways and roads across the DMZ. In an agreement reached in August, the two sides agreed to open one of the roads by the end of November and one of the railway lines in December. The railway project is a core part of South Korean Nobel Peace Prize-winning President Kim Dae-Jung's five-year-old peace drive.

In November, Seoul's Defense Ministry disclosed that the North unilaterally suspended its part of mine clearing project aimed to establish safe land for inter-Korean railway. It was expected that the delay would push back the timetable for completion of one road link. The North blamed "interference of UN Command" as the reason for the shutdown -- which observers said is a move to drive a wedge between the South and its allies. Those inspections became controversial when the UN command, which oversees the Korean War armistice agreement, said it wanted name lists of officials who were to cross the military demarcation line in the center of the DMZ to conduct the inspections. These officials were to cross-inspect the demining work in the southern DMZ.

The North refused stating it would only provide the list to the South. The United Nations Command gave the go-ahead to a "simplified procedure" on 23 November that would allow the South to act as intermediary in passing a list of North Koreans to participate in the inspection in the southern part of the DMZ. The UNC permitted the North and South Korean demining verification teams to cross the border. The South Korean Defense Ministry forwarded the permits to the North Koreans, who refused to acknowledge the information and abstained from the demining verification. However, the North did not respond.

The North continued to refuse to provide a list insisting that the UNC should have no jurisdiction over the DMZ corridors which it said should come under the control of the two Koreas. Then at the last minute, the North responded positively to begin surveying at least one of the corridors in the Demilitarized Zone where the road extensions from the two sides will be joined. However, what this amounted to was that the mine clearing operations would proceed on BOTH sides of the DMZ WITHOUT cross-inspections. Both sides surveyed the roads on their sides of the DMZ without crossing to the other side.

The dispute delayed the demining work inside the DMZ corridors for three weeks, but was "resolved" when the two Koreas decided to remove mines WITHOUT cross-inspections. The South's military engineers backed by demining equipment and combat soldiers restarted the demining work, while the North Korean military troops were seen clearing bushes from the border as well. North Korea informed the South that it will resume mine-removal operations to expedite the reconnection of inter-Korean railways and roads. The mine removal work is to be completed by Dec. 10.

But the row remained unsettled. The UN Command viewed the North's tactics of cutting the UN out of the process as means for creating an exclusive zone -- a joint inter-Korean quarter -- within the DMZ free of the armistice accord so that heavily armed forces could be injected without UN intervention. The UNC stated that the North conceded to the jurisdiction rights of the UNC in November 2000 and signed the related agreement. Major General James Soligan, deputy chief of staff of the UNC, issued a warning that this open corridor could also provide an attack avenue for the North. Soligan reaffirmed UN Command's basic position that any passage through the Demarcation Line would require prior approval from the Command as stipulated under the armistice agreement.

Soligan stated the rail project would be in jeopardy if the North Koreans continued to refuse to apply for UNC approval before crossing the border -- including all personnel involved in construction of re-linking inter-Korean railways and roads as well as vehicles from either side. Though the UNC supports the inter-Korea efforts, Soligan also pointed out that there could be possible setbacks to major inter-Korean economic projects if the North refuses to seek consent to cross the Demarcation Line. The accord also applies for tourists bound for the special tour district of Geumgang. Soligan stated, "The reality is that both the Republic of Korea (South Korea) and the UNC agreed that North Korea will have to comply with the armistice agreement in order to connect road and rails. In other words, transportation corridors are part of the DMZ and we will follow armistice agreement procedures in there."

On December 1, the National Defense Ministry and the UNC agreed to simplify the procedure of issuing approvals to travelers to cross the Military Demarcation Line between the two Koreas. The simplified procedure is targeted for tourists to the North's Mount Geumgang resort using the road link and will take only two steps. The Defense Ministry will have to send a list of Mount Geumgang tourists to the UN Command and then inform the North of the visitors. "The United Nations Command will issue immediate approval upon the National Defense Ministry's requests for the tourists to enter the Demilitarized Zone and to cross the Military Demarcation Line, and the ministry will inform North Korea about the cross-border travelers," Brigadier General Jang Gwang-il of the NDM. Two sets of tourists would use the road link on Dec. 11.

However, what is disturbing is the South Korean inference that "With the simplified procedure for border crossing, the UN Command practically handed over the primary right of approving Military Demarcation Line crossing to the South, and the South will take the lead in practicing the right from now on," a Defense Ministry official said. This South Korean blanket interpretation may cause a great deal of problems in the future as the UNC still retains the right to approve or disapprove the requests.

North Korea Remains Isolated with only South Korea as a "Friend": The controversy that flared up in the Demilitarized zone was not a good sign given that inter-Korean Geumgang tours needs overland route to be constructed as soon as possible to attract more tourists and break even with the business. Although cruise business was still in operation as of December 2002, its overwhelming cost and limited number of tourists the ship can carry makes it a far cry from inducing sufficient profit.

At the end of November, North Korea was trying maintain its links to the South with a "sprinkle of sugar." It announced the creation of a special zone for the Geumgang area. Unlike the Sinuju special administrative area, Pyongyang will retain control of the area. "The law provides for free travel by individuals and groups by foot and in "wheeled" vehicles, envisioning the planned link of roads across the border along the East Coast. "Convertible currencies" will be used in the district and, under the enabling act, will be permitted to move freely in and out of the district. The law also provided for validity of all agreements reached between the two Koreas related to the Geumgang project, perhaps a gesture intended to encourage continued involvement of the South's Hyundai Asan Corp. Hyun-dai hailed the announcement, expressing confidence that it would provide the opportunity for the struggling tourism and development projects to pick up."

The city of Gaeseong just north of the DMZ had been made into a special industrial zone to encourage industrial development. As of December, it looked like a South Korean would be named to administer the district. The following is an article that announced the forming of the Gaesong special industrial zone on November 27.

It's official: Capitalism comes to Gaeseong

North Korea announced yesterday that it has issued a new law to govern a special industrial zone to be developed in the city of Gaeseong, just north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone. The law will guarantee investments, forbid tariffs, do away with visa requirements for entry and put no controls on foreign exchange transactions.

North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency said yesterday that the North's legislature approved the new decree Nov. 13 and confirmed it on Nov. 20. The legislation designates the city, 170 kilometers south of Pyeongyang and 78 kilometers northwest of Seoul, as an "international industrial, trade, commercial, financial and tourist zone." The city, home to about 400,000 North Koreans, is connected to Pyeongyang by rail and an expressway; the two Koreas are attempting to restore severed rail and road links that would connect the new zone with South Korea.

Gaeseong had been the capital of Korea's Goryeo dynasty until the dynasty was overthrown and the capital moved to Seoul by the founder of the Joseon dynasty in 1395. The old district of the city will be part of the tourism zone, KCNA said.

In Seoul, a government official said a South Korean would probably be named to administer the zone; such an understanding has been reached with the North, he said.

The terms of the decree allow any foreign entity to set up shop in the zone, but officials here say South Korean firms will probably predominate. Investors will be given special treatment in employment, land leasing and taxes; most firms' profits will be taxed at 14 percent and technology, infrastructure and light industrial firms will pay 10 percent. "China and Vietnam levy up to 17 percent in income taxes on such industries," a South Korean government source said. "Pyeongyang seems interested in becoming more competitive in those fields."

North Korea hopes to benefit from wages paid to a workforce that could be as large as 160,000 persons. Wages for a common laborer would probably be set at less than $100 per month, a Unification Ministry official said, far lower than the $150 basic wage in China's Shenzhen special economic zone. By contrast, North Korea had demanded wages of $700 per month for workers it would have supplied to the troubled Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization at its nuclear power plant construction site in eastern North Korea.

Leases will be guaranteed for 50 years, and the North will guarantee transfer and inheritance rights.

No single official currency for the zone was mentioned. The North has reportedly banned the use of U.S. dollars in the country beginning Dec. 1, but it was not clear if that ban would apply to transactions within the zone. Profits would be freely remittable abroad, Pyeongyang said.

The decree was silent on access to other parts of North Korea from within the zone, but said corridors would be established to allow travel overland from South Korea.

The Gaeseong industrial zone project was first agreed between the Hyundai Group of South Korea and the North Korean government in August 2000; the two sides agreed to build a 66-square-kilometer industrial zone that was budgeted at $1 billion in construction costs alone. Hyundai and the Korea Land Corporation will develop an initial 3.3 square kilometers in the zone at a cost of 200 billion won ($163 million). (Site Note: On 6 Dec the Chosun Ilbo reported, "Officials from the Korea Land Corporation, who visited North Korea for consultations on the Kaesong Industrial Complex, said Friday that Pyongyang had notified them that the area of the site for development had been reduced from 66.6 million square meters to 48.5 million square meters. They said the reason for this was due to the presence of military facilities and unfavorable land conditions, and Hyundai Asan was requesting additional space at another site to compensate for the loss. The contract between the North and Hyundai, signed in August 2000, specified the site to be made up of a 24 million square meters for industrial development and the remaining 42.6 million to be used as residential and support facilities. The officials said North Korea changed phase one of the plan for developing 3.3 million square meters south of Bondong Station to the north of the facility, as more land was needed. They noted that a new development plan will have to be formulated over a substantial period of time, leading to a considerable delay." The South's state-run Korea Development Institute raised doubts about Kaesong's economic viability, without drastic steps to develop it as an attractive zone. The Kaesong zone would fall behind rivals in China due to insufficent infrastructure outlays and uncertainties over the North's nuclear program, it said. Regardless, South Korea announced they would start construction in December.)

Seoul welcomed the North's willingness to conduct another capitalist experiment.

"We anticipate that the Gaeseong industrial complex project will proceed smoothly and contribute to further inter-Korean economic cooperation," said Han Sang-il, a Unification Ministry spokesman. The two Koreas will hold working-level talks on the Gaeseong project in mid-December; the ground breaking ceremony is scheduled for late next month.

North Korea's second attempt at developing a capitalism zone at Sinuiju, a city bordering China, continued to flounder yesterday. Chinese authorities formally arrested Yang Bin, a Chinese-born businessman appointed to head the North's special administrative zone at Sinuiju, on charges of bribery and fraud. China's state-run Xinhua News Agency said yesterday that Mr. Yang had been arrested after more than a month of detention. The North's first free trade zone, Rajin-Sonbong, in the far northeast corner of the country, has long been moribund.

Following the above article, another article was released clarifying the differences between the Sinuju, Geumgang and Gaeseong special zones:

Brief comparison of special zones : Sinuiju, Geumgang and Gaeseong

North Korea by designating Sinuiju, Geumgang mountain and Gaeseong region a special economic district has in fact, completed its internal reform and stepped up its open door policy that took off with the price reform at the beginning of July this year.

The respective laws for the border city, tour site and industrial complex all guarantees; free economic activities; economic benefits to promote investment; participation of outsiders and 50-year long land lease. Still one could note slight differences on reach rules for the new zones given Sinuiju will be raised in Hong Kong-style, Geumgang tour zone as tourist attraction and Gaeseong complex aimed to become industrial site.

-Freedom of activities:

Sinuiju which was the first to be bestowed with its special status among the three guarantees voting and labor rights to its residents as well as freedom of media, publication, rally, religion and other kinds of gatherings.

Gaeseong complex the prospective industrial zone bans detention or arrest of the residents as well as unilateral investigation of body or residence unless based on agreed law. People there are free to use mail, telephones fax and other means of communications.

Geumgang tour zone given its particular nature aimed toward tourists above all, stipulated on convenient travel of cars for people coming in either as individual or group.

-Economic sanction

North Korea equipped its zones with various benefits for business planners that could bring them much-desired capital. First of all the authority allowed export of profits in line with capitalist operation and further pledged recognition and protection of investors' private properties by law.

Sinuiju was granted preferential duties and taxation, Geumgang with tax-free policy and Gaeseong with non-tariff making the three zones evermore attractive for business people.

- Participation of outsiders

Sinuiju, for one, named a foreigner and a Chines tycoon Yang Bin as its first chief of the administrative zone to lead the way to boost the border district. Other people could also win the citizenship with the authorization of the head of the zone. (Site Note: Yang Bin, 39, the tycoon who became point man for North Korea's foray into capitalism in Sinuiju, is in big trouble with China. Yang, a Dutch citizen who parlayed orchid cuttings and vegetables into a fortune upon returning to China, is imprisoned somewhere charged with investment scams, offering bribes, using fraudulent contracts and the vague "illegally occupying farmland." Yang and his company, Euro-Asia Agricultural Holdings Ltd problems began months earlier, but crested days after his appointment to lead North Korea's new Sinuiju special economic zone just across China's border. In short, everything suggests Yang Bin annoyed the wrong people in Beijing. Yang attracted attention because of his agreement, apparently without consulting Beijing, to head North Korea's experimental Sinuiju economic zone. It could also signal China's wariness about longtime ally North Korea and its skittishness about having competition in the admittedly narrow category of Asian communist nations experimenting with capitalism. Shenyang-based Euro-Asia is in tatters. It has been suspended from trading on Hong Kong's exchange and closed its office there. The fate of Holland Village, Yang's garish, uncompleted real-estate development in Shenyang, is unknown.)

Gaeseong complex and Geumgang tour zone allowed participation of South Korean officials to local administrative body. Some observers speculate South Koreans could be directly elected to take the rein in those bodies as well.

-Land lease

North Korea marked 50-year land lease for all three zones. The authority especially specified the land lease to Sinuiju administrative zone will last till December 31 of 2052. Gaeseong industrial zone too made it clear exactly 50-year lease of land starting from the day it issues certificate for land use to the investors and businessmen.

Geumgang mountain which also requires issuance of special certificate for land lease was not marked with particular date but it is safe to take the investors' era to last for about half a century given Hyundai Asan, the North's major South Korean partner to tourist project was warranted with 50-year-long land use.

"I believe they got the idea of 50-year land lease from watching the examples of China and several other countries," one North Korea expert said. "We might wait and see if the North plans to make it any longer."

-Environmental protection

Given serious pollution around the world it is likely the North vowed never to follow the suit of other advanced industrial nations that had to pay their wealth with threats from the environment though economic development is necessary.

No polluting of environment stipulated Sinuiju law while Geumgang went on to list standards for discharge of polluted materials; vibration, noise and others. Gaeseong specifically added it would prohibit any investment that could harm the surrounding nature.

Differences

While Sinuiju looks to Hong Kong as a model and centers on guaranteeing administrative, judicial and legal rights along with responsibility of the residents, Geumgang and Gaeseong which will purely serve as investment district is more fixed on regulating rights and activities of businessmen.

Defections from North Continues to Rise: The Unification Ministry stated that a total of 1,008 North Koreans had defected to South Korea up to December 2002. What is bothersome is that the number is expected to rise. The figure is sharply up from 2001, when 583 North Koreans defected. In 2000, 312 North Koreans defected and 148 fled the communist country in 1999. Most of the defectors came to South Korea via China, which shares a long land border with the impoverished, communist North. About 120 were allowed to fly to Seoul after taking refuge at foreign diplomatic missions and schools in China. Most defectors complained about hunger and repression in their homeland. Thousands more are believed to be living in hiding in China's northeast, seeking a chance to come to South Korea. Since 1995, North Korea has depended on outside aid to feed its 22 million people.

The defection problem is miniscule now, but if it turns into a flood, there will be innumerable difficulties for the Korean government. The defectors do not have the job skills to work in South Korea. They are technologically backward and remain a burden on the South Korean government. Recent "job fairs" for the defectors have been offered, but the individuals skills are only fit for the most menial of work.

North Korea Amassing Chemical Weapons, Continuing its Nuclear Weapons Program, & Asking for Russian Military Aid

Chemical Weapons: Go to Is the South Korea Civilian Populace Prepared for a Chemical Attack? (2001) for this topic covered in greater detail.

8th Fighter Wing Exercises
SSgt Richard Ortiz checks M3 paper
for chemical contamination
(8FW Photo) (Click to Enlarge)

The following article is from the Washington Times article dated Sept 17, 2002 dealing with the South Korean White Paper which is released annually. In a recent change, the white paper no longer calls North Korea the "main enemy" for political reasons -- though everyone knows that it is... This is the same story as in the past so the status remains unchanged. But this is the reason that George Bush refuses to remove North Korea from his "hit list" as one of the "axis of evil." Their use of chemical weapons is a solid part of the North Korean strategy if they were to attack the South.

North Korea amasses chemical weapons

By Jong-Heon Lee