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HOW IT WAS!
MILITARY AFFAIRS
RELOCATION OF USFK FORCES IN FUTURE
(2005)
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 Korean Bases/Camps
RELOCATION AND SOFA BACKGROUND MATERIAL:
Planned US Reduction of Forces (1990):
The following is under the "1990" section of this site. In 1990, America
started to make plans to disassemble its forces. At first, the American forces
were slated for a 25% reduction, but the South Korean government still feared
North Korean intentions. Korea wished the American forces to stay.
Talks between the ROK Minister of National Defense and US Secretary of Defense
were conducted. The treaty on creating JUSMAG-K was concluded.
In January 1990, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney announced the closing of
three of the five United States air bases in South Korea and schedule the
withdrawal of about two thousand air force personnel. One month later, Seoul
accepted Washington's intention to withdraw about five thousand noncombatant
troops from the American force of more than forty-three thousand soldiers in
South Korea. At the end of 1990, 39,317 American military remained in Korea.
An excellent page assembled by the USCINCPAC Virtual Information Center (VIC) covering articles from all sides on conditions existing in 2002 can be found at Yongsan Relocation. The following is from the conditions faced in 2002 -- and reflect the changes
in activist thinking from the 1990 SOFA period. (Go to
2002: Protests
for 2002 activists perspective of the plan)
In 1990, America started to make plans to disassemble its forces. In April
1990, the senior Bush administration sent a troop reduction plan, based on the
Nunn-Warner East Asia Strategy Evaluation Report, to the US Congress. At first,
the American forces were slated for a 25% reduction, but the South Korean
government still feared North Korean intentions and was opposed to the 'high'
rate of reduction. It preferred instead a more gradual rate of reduction. The
Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) was renegotiated in 1990 with a significant
increase in the Korean portion of the defense expenditures. Seoul accepted
Washington's intention to withdraw about 5,000 noncombatant troops from the
American force of more than 43,000 soldiers in South Korea as part of Phase One
of its plan. At the end of 1990, 39,317 American military remained in Korea.
The original plan called for 2,000 Air Force and 5,000 non-combat ground troops
would be withdrawn from Korea starting in 1991 and completed by 1993. Since
1993, the troop strength has remained at about 37,000 without further talks of
troop withdrawals.
The cancellation of the orginal plan was due in part to the Korean government's
opposition, but also because there was a change in the US policy in East Asia.
The US policy makers had decided to maintain a minimum force level of 100,000
troops in East Asia. Thus the orginal plan stopped implementation after Phase
One.
Phase Two of the original plan planned to reduce the troop strength in Korean
to about 30,000 between 1994-1995. Unfortunately, the North Korean nuclear
crisis that pushed the peninsula to the brink of war stopped the
implementation. This crisis shelved any further troop reduction plans and
since that time there have been no changes to the manning in Korea.
To many activists, this is looked upon as a lost opportunity to rid the
peninsula of the Americans. (See
The 'Crisis' on the Korean Peninsula and the US Troops in Korea
.) Under the original plan, upon completion of Phase One and Phase Two, Phase
Three would be implemented to turn over the defense of Korea to the Korean
military. They envisioned the withdrawal of troops from Korea starting in 1996
and completing in 2000. The dream of being rid of the Americans evaporated
when Kim Il-Sung practiced his brand of brinksmanship and brought the peninsula
to the brink of war. Phase Two never materialized -- and with it no Phase
Three.
A growing number of Americans legislators have come to believe that America has
been footing the defense bill for Korea for too long. More and more pressure
was brought to bear as Korea progressed up the ladder to a G-12 nation.
Feeling the pressure, Korea started on an ambitious military upgrade program in
the 1990s and continues to progress towards weening itself away from America.
(NOTE: Unfortunately it was not the total picture. To ween itself completely
away, some experts felt that $65 billion was required -- which the ROK could
not afford. In addition, the ROK was forced to see that its spending of 2.8
percent of its GDP was NOT reality. Other nations that are "hot spots" spend a
minimum of 6 percent of their GDP. The ROK had been cheating by shifting its
"protectionist" funding to the chaebols at the expense of the military funding.
In 1980 the percentage was 8 percent of GDP, but by 2002 the funding was down
to 2.8 percent. In 2003, the funding increased to 3.4 percent of GDP -- only
after the U.S. jabbed the ROK with a stick over its "fair share" in funding the
defense of their country. (See
Korea Continues to March to Its Own Drummer
for ROK military hardware programs.)
As of 2002, the disparity between the two Koreas has begun to embarrass even
some ROK analysts. Privately, many acknowledge that the American presence no
longer is needed to deter the North.
Some activists state that the belief that US troop withdrawals from Korea will
destabilize the region is a myth. The activists believe that the North is too
weak to pose a danger to the military might of the South and the Americans are
just scaring up boogie-men to justify their presence in Korea. The USFK view
agrees with them somewhat, but points out that North Korea is really not
interested in conquest -- it is interested in staying in power, even if it must
sacrifice its people. (See
Mythical North Korean Threat
for details.)
The activists feel that entrenched military and industrial interests in
Washington wish the military levels to remain the same -- and there is some
truth in this as military hardware sales is a very profitable business. You
can't sell fighters without a spectre of war around the corner -- and the
Koreans understand this point very well as they anticipate a booming export
business with their new Golden Eagle advanced trainer/fighter. However, all
the key political figures -- both Korean and American -- keep mouthing the
appropriate phrases of "mutual defense," "shared security concerns," and
"provide stability in the region" to maintain the U.S. forces in Korea.
Activists proudly point to a 2002 MBC Poll that shows only 27.5% of Koreans
want the Americans to stay while 16.8% say "leave now" and 55.6% say "start
packing up." (NOTE: In the 1995 Sejong Poll, 41.5% wanted the Americans to
stay.) Activists seem blithely unaware that there is a growing grassroots
movement to disengage from Korea -- that has been slowly increasing momentum
since 1978 when Jimmy Carter was elected President based upon that promise.
The activists may not be watching the U.S. polls on CNN that showed 65 percent
of the Americans favored disengagement from Korea. Less than one-third of
Americans support the current Mutual Defense Treaty between the U.S. and Korea.
The American movement for disengagement proposes that Seoul and Washington
should negotiate a phased withdrawal of American forces and termination of the
Mutual Defense Treaty, replacing them with a cooperative military and political
relationship among equals. In other words, the Americans want out!!!
The activists say, "If Korea is reunited and the Cold War ends in the Korean
peninsula, the public opinion in the US would shift toward US disengagement
from Korea and Korea will soon be forgotten. The American people would demand
their troops out of Korea." The answer to is YES!!! Given the opportunity,
the U.S. would be out of the door in no time flat -- without one shed tear and
no looking back. More and more Americans are now seeing the Korean situation
as simply that a KOREAN situation -- without any national security interests
for America involved. For most Americans, a war between North and South Korea
would be just that--a war between North and South Korea. The obvious
humanitarian tragedy would generate few security concerns for the U.S.
Presumably, it is for this reason that a majority of Americans oppose the U.S.
commitment to defend South Korea; less than one-third support the current
defense guarantee. Indeed, the U.S. ultimately will be more secure if its
allies take the lead in dealing with potential conflicts that have minimal
relevance to America.
In the foreseeable future, America will remain the largest trading partner with
the region; retain significant cultural, historical, and political ties; and
will cooperate militarily with allied states. The U.S. even could intervene
militarily if it believed American vital interests were threatened--say by a
potential hegemon that could not be contained by allied powers. To do so,
Washington need NOT maintain an alliance and force structure created in a
different era to achieve different ends. Nor need it intervene promiscuously in
response to every instance of instability in a world in which some instability
is inevitable. In other words, the U.S. will continue to exert influence
throughout Asia, but as the only super-power left in the world, it need not
stay in Korea to protect its interests. If you look closely at George Bush's
vision for a 21st Century fighting force, having a stationary target on Korean
soil (2d ID) is really not part of the stripped down mobile force that he
envisions.
However, the activists may be right on one point. Though some analysts contend
that America's presence in Korea offers an important base to promoting regional
stability, others feel the ROK has just MODEST strategic value for the U.S. To
many analysts it is felt that Washington could maintain whatever air and naval
forces it desired in the region without bases in Korea, as well as a
cooperative relationship with South Korea even in the absence of a defense
guarantee and units based on Korean soil. (See
Korea Marches to Its Own Drummer
for details.)
Unfortunately, despite all assurances to the contrary, the activists feel that
the U.S. wants to remain in Korea forever -- and has done everything to ruin
the North-South reconciliation in order to retain its foothold in Korea. The
logic here does not seem reasonable. Simple weight of numbers of the North
could lead to the destruction of Seoul even if North Korea ultimately (and
quickly) lost the war. There are a lot of safer ways to maintain your
influence in the region than to risk the lives of tens of thousands of Seoul
civilians -- as well as the bulk of your military force.
SOFA
The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) was renegotiated in 1990
to increase the Korean portion of the defense expenditures. As Korea had a
favorable balance-of-payments ratio in foreign trade starting in 1986 that was
rapidly increasing, it was certain that Korea could afford the cost.
This FIRST renegotiation of the SOFA created a storm of protests as it was the
first to recognize Korea as being able to afford its share. Up to this time,
the Koreans had been under the U.S. nuclear umbrella and used the U.S. as their
defense shield. The money saved was pumped into the Korean "chaebol"
conglomerate protectionist system. This economic aid was what made possible
the Miracle of the Han and transformed Korea into one of the Four Dragons of
Asia.
Korea did not start its modernization programs in the 1990s until almost 12
years after North Korea started its upgrade programs.
This renegotiation put Korea on notice that America was serious about leaving.
It made the point that though all the folks could mouthe words like "regional
stability" and "mutual defense," the truth was that any war between the Koreas
had very little to do with the U.S. security risks in the region. Only North
Korea with its nuclear capability was a concern for the US -- NOT the potential
war between the Koreas.
Initially, the Koreans ran around crying "Why is my BIG BROTHER doing this to
me?" and "We are a POOR country. Why are you doing this to me?" After many
months, these cries diminished and soon the Koreans started to get a different
world view. They started to reconsider their place in the world -- and never
looked back. After 1990, when the costs of a military program was discussed,
you would never hear a Korean saying "We are a poor country. We can't afford
it. " Instead, they would comment on programs with "It costs too much!"
After this time, Korea started on an ambitious hardware upgrade program to gain
technology and build up its own home-grown defense. Though it had entered many
high-tech high value added industries such as microchip production, it had not
geared up for military buildup. Its shipyards were still cranking out tankers,
but it lacked the technology to start a buildup of its military hardware. It
looked to Germany, France, Russia, Japan and the U.S. for its technology
transfers. In 1900, the plant at Sochon started up the production lines for
the KF-16s. The Germans were approached for submarine designs. By 2002, it
was building its own destroyers, cruisers, submarines, KMA-1 Main Battle Tanks,
launched its KR-III sub-orbital "research" rocket, possessed OFFENSIVE missile
capabilities with the ATACMS, and so forth. The 1990 renegotiation forced
Korea to march to its own drummer.
The SOFA's legal provisions of allowing the Korean police for the first time to
demand jurisdiction over crimes that were committed off-base was the first
opening of a highly bothersome issue. Prior to this negotiation, the USFK
basically had all the control. Minor crimes occurring on-base or were
line-of-duty accidents remained under the jurisdiction of the USFK. For major
crimes, the wording was that the ROK COULD demand the jurisdiction rights over
cases involving serious crimes (murder, rape, arson), but the US at this time
still retained custody of the suspect until tried. Though the ROK police COULD
demand jurisdiction for minor crimes, they never did. This is a key difference
as the Korean system allowed questioning of the suspect without charges or
presence of a lawyer -- and without this provision, the prosecutor's office's
found it hard to conduct their style of investigation.
The activists despised this SOFA calling it "unjust" but at this time the
majority of Koreans believed the U.S. forces were essential to the defense of
Korea. Only years later would the Koreans start to feel that they did not need
the U.S. for their defense -- and in fact started to feel the U.S. was blocking
their unification efforts.
The following is from the conditions faced in 2002 -- and reflect the changes
in activist thinking from the 1990 SOFA period. (Go to
2002: Protests
for 2002 activists perspective of the plan)
Many activists view the increased cost-sharing for Korea as some sort of insult
and any increases are labeled "protection money" as though the U.S. were a
thug. To the activists, the US is "demanding more money from Seoul so that the
doves who oppose US presence in Korea for economic reasons may be silenced. In
1989, Seoul paid the US 45 million dollars for its presence in Korea. This was
the first time Seoul had to pay the US for protection. This protection money
increased to 70 million dollars in 1990, 150 million dollars in 1991, 180
million in 1992, 220 million in 1993, 260 million in 1994, and 300 million in
1995. The protection money stayed at the 1995 level for awhile because of the
economic meltdown in the late 1990's."
The activists fail to mention that the "Miracle of the Han" was made possible
when Korea followed the Japanese "kiretsu" conglomerate model and built up
their "chaebol" conglomerates while living under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The
ROK Ministry of National Defense acknowledges that Seoul did not begin its
"force improvement program" until "12 years later than North Korea." Instead,
South Korea "concentrated on its economic and social development" despite the
dire military threat from the North. Instead of funneling its monies into
military buildup, it funneled it into its designated "chaebols." This
protectionist economic strategy worked. The ROK has about 24 times the GDP of
North Korea.
However, there was growing resentment from the American taxpayers after Korea
became one of the "four dragons of Asia" and STILL would not pay what America
considered its fair share for its defense. As late as 1986, Washington still
was providing significant amounts of security-oriented aid. On top of this was
the direct American military subsidy in the form of the defense commitment and
troop deployments. All the while, the ROK invested the cash that it saved into
the South Korean economy. In 1990, the U.S. demanded the Korea start paying
its way as their economy could easily afford it. The SOFA was renegotiated and
their share significantly increased. When the "IMF Crisis" hit in 1995, the
Koreans immediately started to "poor mouth" and the costs remained static at
1995 years until 2001. After the IMF had given Korea a clean bill of health,
the U.S. again readdressed the cost-sharing formula.
The activists complain that the US "demanded" 440 million dollars in 2001 and
wants to increase the share by 10% per year to 600 million by 2004. To
Americans, the activists are using a different accountant than the U.S. side.
The activists claim that "Seoul's share of the US expenses in Korea was less
than a third of the total direct costs in 1990 but it will shoot up to more
than 50% by 2004-2005. Here we are addressing direct costs only. When indirect
costs - such as land use and subsidized utilities - are added on, Seoul's share
of the costs amounts to more than three billion dollars a year."
Unfortunately their viewpoint is a bit skewed. (See
Korea Should Start Paying Their Own Way
for an enlightening 1999 article that covers the inequity of the ROK cost
sharing.) The U.S. pays about $15 billion dollars annually to maintain their
troops in Korea -- with Korea reaping the benefits. The article states, "All
told, Americans spend as much to defend the ROK--about $15,000,000,000
annually--as the South Koreans do." When you talk about percentage of GNP for
defense from a developed nation, you will see that Korea is getting better, but
is STILL SIGNIFICANTLY behind such countries as Finland who have no enemies now
that Russia is gone.
However, when we start comparing Japan and Korea dealing with the SOFA costs,
we see a facet of the Koreans that is very irksome. The activists complain
that in the 1990s, "the U.S. troops in Japan and Korea cost about 30 billion
dollars a year. Korea and Japan paid the U.S. about 2 billion dollars and 20
billion dollars, respectively." Though we may quibble with the figures here,
the point is the disparity in the payments between Korea ($2 billion) and
Japanese ($20 billion). The Koreans constantly complain about the inequity of
the Korean SOFA when compared to Japanese SOFA, but they REFUSE to pay the same
percentage as the Japanese. The activists when confronted with the question as
to why they shouldn't increase their share, one usually hears a cop-out
response like "Americans are here to further their national interests in Asia,
so why should we pay for them." The topic is always closed at that point.
2005 OVERVIEW A good overview of the situation in at the beginning of 2005 was given by LTC David W. Shin in his article ROK and the
United States 2004–2005: Managing Perception Gaps? published in Feb 2005. He stated:
- South Korean society has polarized over the last two years. The country’s
conservatives and “progressives” are struggling to define Korea’s vision for
the future, including relations with the U.S. Recent polls show most South
Koreans still value the U.S.-ROK alliance. However, many seem to
perceive that the U.S. has historically treated South Korea unequally.
- Most South Koreans acknowledge the tension within the U.S.-ROK alliance.
Many believe the upcoming Security Policy Initiative (SPI) will be a great
opportunity to rejuvenate the alliance. Some feel that for SPI to be
successful, it will require presidential-level involvement from both countries.
- China remains an important factor in South Korea’s strategic calculations.
The Roh administration was initially viewed as leaning toward China.
However, competing Chinese and Korean interpretations of an ancient
historical question have chilled “China Fever” in Korea. The net effect has
been to highlight the utility and importance of the alliance with the U.S.
- South Koreans are concerned about efforts to expand the U.S.-Japan
security alliance. Many believe the pace of change in Japan’s security
posture is too fast and fear that its status as America’s most important ally
in the Asia-Pacific comes at Korea’s expense. South Korea is therefore
unlikely to embrace efforts to enhance U.S.-Japan-ROK security
cooperation. This seems in part because of Japan’s historical legacy, but
also because Korea does not want to unnecessarily antagonize China.
- Only a minority of South Koreans believes there is a possibility that North
Korea will launch a full-scale attack. However, nearly half still view North
Korea as a threat. In fact, more than 60 percent agree that U.S. forces
should remain in Korea long-term, and 93 percent indicated the
relationship was important to South Korea’s national interest.
ROK Military Modernization The following is excerpted from the US Embassy Site:
ROK ARMY (ROKA) GOALS AND MODERNIZATION EFFORTS
- 1. The ROKA continues to focus on indigenous and co-produced ground and aviation equipment-this focus is driven by national pressure to enhance the Korean industrial base by acquiring advanced technologies. Indigenous development and production include an advanced artillery fire control system, and the PRC-999K tactical radio. The ROKG is also developing tracked air defense systems and has deployed one system in the Seoul area. Co-production programs with the US include the K-1 main battle tank, K-200 Korean Infantry Fighting Vehicle, K-55 self propelled 155mm howitzer, M-9 Armored Combat Earthmover, and the UH-60P utility helicopter. These have been successful programs. (SITE NOTE: The ROK Army vehicles are aging and though the K-1 (KMA-1A) is manufactured under license, it is an outdated version that does not incorporate the latest computer interfaces and communication developments. The UH-60P helicopters are aging quickly and need replacement, but the ROK placed its priority at the bottom of the list.)
- 2. Counter-fire, special operations, forward area air defense and aviation modernization all continue to receive priority for foreign acquisition. ROKA has received the last of the U.S. TPQ-37 Firefinder radar systems procured through FMS. The ROK currently has a mixture of TPQ 36 and TPQ 37 radars. The overall intent of an upgrade program is to make the ROK radars, both Q36 and Q37, comparable in capabilities to those of USFK. Additionally, the ROK is actively pursuing the procurement of a second battalion of MLRS and long range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). The ROK ultimately wishes to acquire the most advanced versions, M270A1 and ATACMS Block 1A, of the systems. The ROK SOF is seeking enhancements in several areas. These include communications, optical equipment, navigation equipment, and aviation. The ROKA aviation modernization program is an ambitious effort designed to infuse new technology, expand force structure, and develop a day/night engagement and sustainment capability. Lift and cargo capabilities continue to receive attention, and there is now a renewed emphasis on procurement of an advanced attack helicopter. (SITE NOTE: New MLRS battalion on line, but the ATACMS still on order. That the ROK has taken over the response for artillery retalliation in case of North attack makes this area vague at best. The search for the next generation helicopter "reprioritized" to the bottom of the list. Most of the "improvements" are talk. The ROK relies almost entirely on US Intelligence and lacks the modern interface. The ROK does NOT want to spend the money to upgrade their 4CSRI systems (C4I) -- and the US will not pay for it either. According to GlobalSecurity.orgOn 04 December 2001 Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control announced that it had received an $80.7 million contract to produce 111 Army Tactical Missile System (Army TACMS) Block IA missiles for the Republic of Korea. The contract represented the second purchase of the Army TACMS system by Korea and the first international sale of the Army TACMS Block IA system. The Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contract included 110 Army TACMS FMS Block IAs and one ATACMS FMS Block IA for testing, and 29 multiple rocket launchers. The contract with South Korea had a total value of 400 billion won ($307 million). South Korea began deploying US-made missiles in December 2003 that can strike most of North Korea. The Army Tactical Missile System Block 1A missiles are being deployed near the Demilitarized Zone. South Korea deployed 110 surface-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 300 km (187 miles) by April 2004. This marks the first time that South Korea will deploy 300-km medium-range missiles, which are capable of striking Pyongyang and other key North Korean cities.")
- 3. ROKA is intent on modernizing its forces, with emphasis on maneuver warfare, activation of two additional attack helicopter battalions, and enhancement of its special operations forces. There will continue to be an emphasis on indigenous production and co-production. (SITE NOTE: With the shelving of the helicopter procurement program, this seem glum for any meaningful upgrades.)
ROKAF GOALS AND MODERNIZATION EFFORTS
- 1. Recent ROKAF procurement initiatives include air-to-air refueling tankers, airborne C3I, and airborne early warning capability. Service Life Extension Programs (SLEP) across the ROKAF fleet (F-4, F-16 Falcon Up, and possible F-5 modernization) are measures pending delivery of additional Korean Fighter Program F-16s, the Future Fighter (FX), and the Korean Trainer (KTX-II) aircraft. (SITE NOTE: The FX program finalized with the F-15K fighter selected after much controversy over its selection though the French fighter had won the competition. AWACS placed on a hold after the ROK wanted to starting the bidding process from scratch after only Boeing qualified using the criteria of the ROK.)
- 2. The ROKAF is expected to make a major air defense procurement decision in 2001. Patriot is a strong candidate to replace the aging ROK Nike-Hercules systems. This will also improve the current Theater Missile Defense (TMD) capability. (SITE NOTE: The SAM-X Program is unfunded though the Patriot PAC-3s are on order. The proposal to purchase used German PAC-2 Patriots fell through.)
ROKN GOALS AND MODERNIZATION EFFORTS
- 1. Surface Naval Combatants: The ROKN force improvement program calls for the replacement of its aging destroyer class ships (old US Navy FRAM I and II hulls) with a modern indigenous naval force based on an ascending series of hull designs beginning with a 3850 ton KDX-I, followed by a 4,500 ton KDX-II with enhanced AAW capabilities, then a 7000 ton class "Aegis" class ship called KDX-III. Current planning is for three KDX-I class, six KDX-II, and at least one KDX-III class ships. At this point, As of this writing two KDX-I ships are commissioned with the third ship expected to be commissioned in summer 2000. Delivery of KDX-II ships and a KDX-III destroyer is expected in the near future. (SITE NOTE: These Aegis destroyers with supposed "home grown" technology relies heavily on foreign technology and electronics. The ROKN seeks to become a true bluewater navy -- and also has plans to launch a carrier (Admiral Shin) in 2010.)
- a. A new design amphibious landing ship, the LPX, is planned for delivery in 2005. This ship will displace approximately 10,000 tons. ROK Navy desires the ship to have a large flight deck like a helicopter carrier; a flooding well deck to accommodate Amphibious Assault Vehicles (AAV's) and Landing Cushion Aircraft (LCAC) is being considered.
- b. ROK Navy received a new class of mine hunting ship (MHC) in 1999. Two more ships are expected to be delivered in 2001 and 2002.
- 2. Submarine Program: The ROKN is progressing with its acquisition of nine Type 209 submarines of German design; seven of the 1200 ton ships are commissioned with the remaining two under late stages of construction. (SITE NOTE: This is a success story, but still the ROK relies on US intelligence to locate North Korean subs.)
- a. ROK Navy is currently working with both French and German shipyards in the design and acquisition of ROK Navy's next submarine, KSS-II. This ship will be in the 1800-ton range and will have Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) engineering plant.
- b. The ROK Navy submarine force has been working closely with US Navy submarine forces, stationed in Japan.
- 3. Maritime Surveillance: As the ROKN expands the strategic range of its primary surface and subsurface combatant forces, it continues to upgrade its Naval Air Force's ASW/Maritime patrol capability. All eight planes are being outfitted with Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar that will significantly increase its maritime patrol capabilities; installation completion is expected by Oct 2000. ROK Navy is aggressively pursuing the acquisition of an additional eight additional P-3C aircraft. These aircraft, along with the major support facilities (supply warehouse, hangar, maritime Air Operations Center, weapons magazine, maintenance facilities) at Pohang gives the ROK Navy a robust maritime surveillance capability in the Asian littoral. (SITE NOTE: The ROK claims to have built a home-grown cruise missile designed for ship to ship use. In addition, the ROKN has announced that it will build a massive base in Cheju-do.)
- 4. C3I Upgrades: ROK Navy is executing a major C3I upgrade commencing in CY 2000 using the US Navy's Global Command & Control System - Maritime (GCCS-M) and UHF SATCOM as the communications backbone.
- a. The current plans include UHF SATCOM, Navy Order Wire, GCCS-M for operational shipboard and command center use.
- b. The Korean OSIS Evolutionary Development (KOED) is a wide area network intelligence fusion and dissemination system connecting the fleet commanders and ROK Navy Headquarters; installation is in progress.
- c. The third component of the master ROK Navy C3I upgrade architecture is the Korean Naval Tactical Data System.
ROKMC GOALS AND MODERNIZATION EFFORTS
- 1. The principal influence on ROKMC acquisition programs is their wartime role as part of the Combined Marine Forces Command. Acquisition plans are tied to ROK Army procurement and focus on increasing tactical mobility, firepower, and command and control.
- 2. Amphibious Assault Vehicles - Until recently, the ROKMC fleet of Amphibious Vehicles consisted of sixty-one Landing Vehicles Tracked (LVT) and forty-two AAV7A1. Additionally, in an effort to replace the LVTs, the ROKMC is in the final year of a fifty-seven vehicle, three-year AAV7A1 co-production effort. The ROKMC is in the process of modifying that contract and producing an additional sixty-seven additional AAV7A1 vehicles.
Background on Military Exchanges between ROK and Foreign Countries (2003) The following extracted from MND 2003:
- 1. Military Exchanges and Cooperation with Japan
Military exchanges and cooperation with Japan are based on the New
Partnership for the 21st Century between Korea and Japan and are being
developed into a future-oriented partnership. The ROK and Japan have
gradually expanded and developed military exchanges and relations since the
establishment of the ROK military attaché's office in Japan in 1966 and the
Japanese military attaché's office in Korea the following year. These exchanges
were mainly personnel-based. Since 1994, however, the scope of exchanges has
expanded and diversified through visits of high-ranking officials, such as the
annual Defense Ministers' Talks and a variety of regular working level
meetings.
The Joint Declaration of New Korea-Japan Partnership for the 21st Century
was agreed on October 3, 1998 in Tokyo, providing an opportunity for both
countries to strengthen bilateral cooperation and exchanges in many areas.
Following this, meetings such as the 1999 ROK JCS-Japanese Joint Staff
Council staff talks and the ROK Navy-Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces
talks were held for the first time, diversifying military communication
channels. Moreover, a joint search-and-rescue exercise was conducted in 2000
for purely peaceful purposes, and the ROK Navy marching band participated
in the Japanese Self Defense Forces Marching Festival.
In 2001, however, the disagreement on the contents in Japanese history
textbooks modified and put on hold military relations. In April 2002, the
Japanese Defense Minister visited Korea to participate in the Defense
Ministers' talks, and the two Ministers agreed that we must learn from
history and step forward together into the future in harmony, and
reconfirmed that military exchanges must be accompanied by mutual trust
and the support of both Korean and Japanese citizens, based on the correct
understanding of the two nations' past history.
The successful 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup and PKO cooperation in East
Timor have made a great contribution not only to both countries but also to
regional stability as well. During the Defense Ministers' talks on March 29,
2003, the two ministers agreed to strengthen the ROK-US-Japan security
relations to peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. The visits of
high-ranking officials and exhibition soccer match between cadets are
expected to raise the relationship to another level.
Future military exchanges and cooperation with Japan will become more
diversified based on the idea of the joint declaration of New Partnership of
the 21st Century. It will greatly contribute not only to building military
confidence and promoting friendship but also to establishing peace and
stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia as well.
- 2. Military Exchanges and Cooperation with China
There has been significant
progress in economic, social, and
cultural relations between the ROK
and China since normalization of
relations in August 2002. In
November of 2002, presidential
talks were held and both sides
agreed to form the ROK-China
Cooperative Partnership for the
21st Century. With Chinese Prime
Minister Zhu Rongji's visit to
Korea, the two countries agreed to
develop their relationship to the one of Full-Fledged Cooperation, including
politics and military, laying down a framework for an epochal development of
ROK-China relationship in all areas.
Based on the extensive progress in ROK-China relations, military relations
between the two countries have progressed gradually after the establishment
of a ROK military attaché's office in 1993 and a Chinese military attaché's
office in 1994. Since then, the exchanges of military athletic groups, the ROKChina
defense forum, and military education have been active. In particular,
since the ROK-China Defense Ministers' talks in 1999, these talks have become
an annual event. Through these events, including official visits at the level of
Chief of Staff, the scope of military exchanges is gradually expanding.
Recently, more substantial exchanges and cooperation have been made. In
2001, for instance, a cruiser fleet from the ROK Naval Academy visited
Shanghai for the first time. In 2002, ROK aircraft visited China, and in the
same year, Chinese naval vessels visited Korea for the first time. In 2003, more
diverse military exchanges and cooperation are expected to take place. Korea
expects a visit from China's Deputy Chief of Staff, and the ROK Chairman of
JCS is also planning to visit China. A Chinese transport aircraft is expected to
land on Korean soil in 2003.
With President Roh Moo-Hyun's visit to China on July 2003, ROK-China
relations have been raised to the new level of a Full-Fledged Cooperative
Partner Relationship and will focus on solidifying military confidence
between the two countries while contributing to establishing peace in
Northeast Asia as well as on the Korean Peninsula.
- 3. Military Exchanges and Cooperation with Russia
After the diplomatic normalization in 1990 and the establishment of military
attaché's offices of both countries in 1991, exchanges between high-ranking
officials have resulted in various measures for building military confidence.
The military relations between the two countries have made a noticeable
development during the short period of time.
The first ROK-Russia Defense Ministers' Talks in 1994 produced an
Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents at Seas Beyond Territorial Waters
between the two countries. The ROK-Russia Joint Defense Policy Consultative
Meeting was held in 1997, and since its first meeting in 2000, the Defense
Industry and Logistics Cooperation meetings have been held annually. In
2002, the Agreement on Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities was
concluded. Through these events
the two countries are strengthening
the foundation for building military
confidence.
On April 10, 2003, the ROK-Russia
Defense Ministers' talks were held
in Seoul. During the talks, both
sides agreed to diversify their
military exchanges and cooperation,
and Russia gave support for a
peaceful resolution of the North
Korean nuclear issue and the ROK's
Policy of Peace and Prosperity.
More diverse exchanges and cooperation have been planned in 2003, such as
visits of high-ranking military officers and military exercises.
In the future, the ROK-Russia relationship will continuously develop into a
Constructive Partnership. Based on personnel exchanges and systematic
efforts towards building military confidence, this relationship will contribute
to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.
Relocation of USFK Forces in Future:
JANUARY 2005
ROK ACTIONS
Rumblings of Changes in store for 2005 Within this context, the ROK is starting to look at itself in comparison to its neighbors -- most strikingly Japan -- and now realizes that it is now even in the same class. The Chief of the Japanese Self Defense Force (SDF) has just announced a major restructuring of the SDF. In addition, the U.S. has congratulated the SDF on changing its defense posture. There are subtle hints that the Japanese are intending to take on a more "aggressive" role in its defense. This was in keeping with the controversial proposal to eliminate Article 9 of the Peace Constitution to give Japan a pro-active defense capability. In other words, it could have "first strike capability" if it felt it was being threatened. This is pointedly aimed at North Korea which is still under attack for its kidnapping of Japanese citizens long ago -- and allegedly falsified the remains of Japanese kidnap victims returned to Japan.
The ROK is in no position to negotiate thus they are considering accepting the reshaping of the USFK as a REGIONAL FORCE. The ROK wishfully thinks that the US will pay for its increase in defensive power so that it can handle at least North Korea by itself. This will NOT happen -- as the US has stated repeatedly that it needs to increase its percentage of GDP spending to 3.2 percent on defense. The ROK thinks that it can bargain by "allowing" the USFK to be strategically flexible. Some of the realities of its delaying these programs are starting to sink in. The ROK had stated in 2004 that it was considering purchasing "used" PAC-2 Patriots from Germany to fill its SAM-X program needs -- but later shelved the program because of the lack of funds. Estimates are that it will cost about $92.5 billion to upgrade the ROK military.
U.S. officials touted some $11 billion in upgrades to military hardware as a way to keep a strong deterrent force while moving forces to different locations. However, many of the $11 billion upgrades were already in the works such as the Apache Longbow upgrades so it might be a little deceptive. The bottomline is that the high-tech hardware improvements are things that the ROK does NOT possess. (EPILOGUE: In Apr 2005, as the ROK was widening the gap in its US-ROK alliance, the MND was attempting to put a positive face on the Roh "self-reliant defense" policy. Unfortunately, in Apr 2005 the old news that the US was pulling out of the WRSA-K (War Readiness Support Allies -- Korea) which would mean that ROK had only about 10 days of ammunition if a real war broke out. The MND had been reshuffling the priorities on its upgrade programs -- and nothing was getting done.)
Given the ROK aid programs to the North, the opening of the Kaesong Special Economic Zone in North Korea and the plethora of support programs the South has with the North, the finite amounts of money were only going to stretch so far. With the ROK in a recession (though it does not like that term), it is hard to find the monies to support the massive upgrades for the military.
However, a "regional force" would require resolving many issues between Seoul and Washington.
- (1). The most controversial issue would be how much say Seoul would have in the deployment of the USFK elsewhere. In truth, the US can NOT give the ROK any say on the deployment.
It will only make assurances that there will be backfills as it has done in recent times. For example, when F-16 squadrons from Korea deploy to Thailand, other U.S. air squadrons deploy to Korea to make up the shortfall. (EPILOGUE: In Mar 2005, President Roh stated that the ROK will NOT allow the USFK forces to be used in a regional role without the ROK consent. This set a head-on collision in motion.)
(2). The realignment, furthermore, would mean amending the Mutual Defense Treaty, which limits the role of the USFK to the defense of the peninsula. This might get a little ticklish as the 1952 Mutual Defense Treaty is very tricky in that it specifically mentions the Liancourt Rocks (Tokdo) and the position that if the ROK starts a war, the US will not come to its aid. This Mutual Defense Treaty is unlike other treaties that the US has with other nations in that the US involvement is NOT automatic, but must be approved by Congress. (See Tokdo Dispute History for historical data and information on Tokdo.) (EPILOGUE: In Mar 2005, President Roh stated that the ROK would attempt to be a "balancer" of powers in Northeast Asia. As such, he moved to form a military alliance with China -- which causes a realignment with China-Russia-North Korea (and South Korea) on one side and US-Japan on the other.)
(3). Another issue is the role of the Korean army, which now operates jointly with the USFK in the CFC -- but only in time of war. This really is a non-issue, but it does involve the "administrative" function of the CFC which may be moved to Japan under the I Corps at Camp Zama. (EPILOGUE: The Roh administration continues to press forward with the idea that the ROK would head up any defense of the ROK in time of WAR. This forms the basis for Roh's "self-reliant defense" strategy. In Apr 2005, the LDP draft of the Peace Constitution amendments was released with the hopes that the problems can be ironed out before Nov 2005. The biggest change is the changing of Article 9 which would allow the USFK to move part of its functions to Japan.)
Though Undersecretary of State Lawless stated that the CFC would remain under a four-star general, one has to look at the wording closely. He did not state for how long. Gen LaPorte has been extended in his position to handle some very ticklish issues faces the USFK -- especially the relocation of the forces off the DMZ and south of the Han. His deputy is Lt. Gen. Campbell, while the USFJ top dog is Lt. Gen. Bruce A. Wright, commander of U.S. Forces Japan and 5th Air Force.
The Los Angeles Times reported in November 2004 that because of the DPRK's movement to launch missiles, Japan`s Council on Security and Defense Capabilities, a private advisory panel to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is creating a great stir by claiming the possibility of taking the offensive posture. According to the paper, the Japanese government is rewriting its defense policy in consideration of the PRC's strengthening of its forces and the DPRK's attempt to develop nuclear weapons. This is all part of the Japanese movement to build a Missile Defense Shield (MDS) along with the US -- and the resultant question of the use of a preemptive strike if it was considered essential for the national defense. This in turn would create a change in Article 9 of the Peace Constitution. The US and Japan conservative forces have been quietly lobbying for a Constitutional Change because Koizumi does not yet have the political majority needed to affect such change. 2005 appears to be the projected date for any action in Japanese politics.
The key remains the actions of the Japanese political and business elements which are being lobbied hard to make changes to the Peace Constitution that would allow the stationing of a Quick Reaction force on its soil. This would then open the way to Camp Zama becoming the new focal point for the region with I Corps returning to take over command from Fort Lewis, Washington. This would then enable the realignment of all the Pacific forces with a four-star in Hawaii at Camp Smith, a three-star at Camp Zama and the USFK being downgraded to a two or three-star position. The events of 2005 in Japan will determine what happens in Korea.
On 19 Mar, the Star and Stripes stated the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo has received hundreds of postcards protesting unconfirmed Japanese media reports that the U.S. Army's I Corps Headquarters may relocate to Camp Zama, Japan, according to embassy officials. A group consisting of city councilors and residents from Zama and Sagamihara cities, who oppose the alleged plans, are selling postcards addressed to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in care of the embassy stating that the troops are not welcome, according to Tokio Kaneko, the group's director general and Sagamihara city councilman.
A petition signed by more than 300,000 people protesting any deployment of a nuclear carrier to Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, after the USS Kitty Hawk is decommissioned in 2008 was submitted to the mayor of Yokosuka on 18 May. Leaders from the Citizens Coalition Concerning Home-Porting of a Nuclear-Powered Carrier to Yokosuka Naval Base handed the petition to Yokosuka Mayor Hideo Sawada at the city hall. The carrier group is the strategic element for the defense of Japan and Korea and also as the strategic key to keeping the the Taiwan Strait open. But signing a petition to developing a political action to NOT deploy a nuclear carrier to Japan may be another thing.
The moves are now being taken and the Japanese public constantly reminded that the North's Rodong missiles are ALL pointed at Japan and the U.S. The Associated Press on Feb 15 reported that Japan's self defense chief could order the military to shoot down incoming missiles under legislation endorsed by the Cabinet on Tuesday, less than a week after the DPRK claimed that it has built nuclear weapons. The bill is part of sweeping changes to Japan's defense policy launched by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi long before the DPRK announcement. Critics say the reforms are dismantling the country's post-World War II policy of pacifism.
Researcher Opinion: CATO -- US Should Fulfill US Interests, NOT ROK interests On 31 Jan 2005, Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a conservative U.S. think tank, said the United States should defend foreign nations and base troops overseas according to its own interests, not those of other countries. Bandlow presented his view in an article on the institute's Internet Web site, citing U.S. troop deployments in South Korea, Germany and Iraq.
Bandow said although U.S. officials have routinely asserted that Washington plans on staying in South Korea as long as Seoul wants, the country is well able to defend itself. The researcher also said that South Korea's supposed preference to save money by relying on the United States is no justification for America's security guarantee.
The article also addressed President Roh Moo-hyun's supposed complaints that all changes in the size of U.S. troop strength on the Korean Peninsula have been determined by Washington based on strategic U.S. considerations. It said that U.S. troop deployments must be based on America's strategic interests and that its military should not be used to fulfill the wishes of others.
In the past, Bandlow has presented a very persuasive case that the US should leave Korea based on the cost factors. The expenditures and costs of maintaining a static force as a "trip wire" cannot be justified in the modern world of the US Global Positioning Strategy with its mobile forces.
Winter Quiet without Protests The U.S. continued to look towards relocating all its facilities in the Yongsan Garrison in Seoul to Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, 70 kilometers south of Seoul.
During the winter months there has been no protests lodged against the military -- as winter is traditionally NOT the protest season. However, we noticed that in Songtan (outside Osan AB) near the Study Hall Book Store that there was a long banner at the bus stop in hangul. Americans would not be aware of its content but it read: "American military soldiers go home. Pyongtaek lands belong to Korea." This is a pointed reference to the Pyongtaek expansion that will condemn lands of some farmers to expand Camp Humphreys.
But for December 2004 and January 2005 there were no protests in Songtan or Pyongtaek.
USFK ACTIONS
Heliport at Yongsan Returned under LPP In the continuation of slowly returning Yongsan to the ROK, the heliport near the Ministry of Defense was returned without any fanfare. Under terms agreed to in 2003, the two allies signed a plan to eventually close about half of the U.S. bases in South Korea, moving most troops to new military hubs near Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys under the Land Partnership Plan (LPP). Many of the 2nd Infantry Division units would consolidate at Camp Red Cloud and Camp Casey before moving further south from the DMZ and out of North Korea's long-distance artillery range.
 Yongsan Garrison Aerial View
The following is from the Stars and Stripes on 21 December 2004:
97 percent of Yongsan Garrison will be turned over to South Korea 'as is'
By Teri Weaver, Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Tuesday, December 21, 2004
YONGSAN GARRISON, South Korea — The main U.S. military base here in Korea would shrink from 635 acres to a mere 20 acres — a 97 percent decrease — as a part of the effort to centralize U.S. forces southward on the peninsula.
The commissary, the 121st General Hospital, the driving range, even the post exchange and bowling alley all would go back to the South Koreans.
The shrunken U.S. post would include a 20-acre plot with a small office for the commander of U.S. Forces Korea and the Dragon Hill hotel, according to Col. Dan Wilson, a USFK engineer who is a key participant in the developing the relocation plans.
The United States and South Korea finalized the agreement to close Yongsan Garrison in late October. Earlier this month, the South Korean National Assembly passed a bill that would allow its government to spend between $3 billion to $4 billion to fund the movement of U.S. troops from Yongsan to Pyongtaek, an area that takes in the U.S. installations at Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base.
The move is scheduled to be completed by 2008.
What becomes of Yongsan — a swath of land three quarters the size of New York's Central Park — remains unclear, Wilson and his Korean counterpart, Kim Dong-ghi, said this week. Some ideas have included a huge park, an underground mall or additional commercial space, but nothing has been decided, officials said this week.
"It's too early to say," Kim said. "It's a moving discussion, how to utilize returned land throughout Seoul and the country. It is going to be discussed with the local governments."
"They are looking at future use of the properties we're returning," Wilson said during an interview Thursday. He said no money would exchange with the hand-over of land. "The Korean government owns the land and they grant us the use of it for free."
U.S. Forces Korea and the Republic of Korea have worked for years to try to free up land in Seoul; more recently, U.S. officials announced they planned the eventual downsizing of U.S. troop strength on the peninsula. Already, smaller bases in the northern part of South Korea are preparing to close as construction at Camp Humphreys in the Pyongtaek area ramps up.
When the plan is completed in the next few years, the number of U.S. forces in South Korea will have decreased by 12,500 and U.S. occupation of S.Korean land by two-thirds.
Both countries are awaiting passage of Korea's 2005 budget to set in motion the U.S. move from Seoul. In addition to Yongsan, USFK plans to move southward its operations at the other 13 sites throughout Seoul, Wilson said. Currently, the U.S. uses about 900 acres in Korea's capital city, he said, including Yongsan.
In the meantime, the Korean central government has been working with local leaders to understand their concerns and desires about the U.S. properties, said Kim, who is working on the relocation project in Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan's office.
The United States will leave the sites "as is," Wilson said. They have no obligation to tear down buildings; the Koreans may decide to use the infrastructure as they like, he said.
"We don't have to restore it," he said. "They get the benefit of whatever we've built on there."
The Chosun Ilbo on 18 Jan 2005 stated that the USFK move to Pyongtaek will cost 5.5 trillion won ($5.3 billion). The article stated:
Relocation of U.S. forces and installations will cost a total of W5.5 trillion, it was revealed Tuesday.
The Defense Ministry said in a briefing that moving the U.S. Yongsan Garrison would cost W4 trillion by 2008, while the Land Partnership Plan (LPP), which calls for the reorganization of U.S. bases and training grounds nationwide, would cost W900 billion. Redeployment of the U.S. Second Infantry Division will cost another W600 billion.
Brig. Gen. Kang Su-myeong, the head of the team dealing with U.S. base relocations, said the ministry for this year set aside W518.5 billion, covering W277.9 billion for the Second Infantry Division relocation, W140.6 for the LPP and W100 billion for the garrison transfer. The budget includes the costs of land purchase, planning, construction, environmental studies and labor.
The Defense Ministry had planned to recoup the costs through sales of land returned to it by the U.S. military but is running into problems with Seoul City and local governments, who hope to get the land for free and turn it into parks and other public facilities.
SPI as Blueprint for ROK-US Alliance The United States and Korea agreed to establish a Strategic Policy Initiative (SPI) to form a blueprint for the future of the U.S.-Korea alliance, during the annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM). The SPI will re-establish the military relationship over the next two years. Basically, the ROK will be considered in context of a much broader perspective that includes North Korea and China (with Taiwan) -- and the US, Japan and Korea. The ROK will be just one piece in the REGIONAL security picture. The ROK came to recognize that the USFK troops as a deployable regional force is an inevitability. It also has come to accept that the ROK will be used as a hub. Basically, the talks will no longer be at the USFK-MND level, but be upgraded to US-ROK Minister level because of what is at stake.
Yonhap News reported on 22 Nov 2004 that the ROK and US had decided to delay until early 2005, talks aimed at redefining their half-century military alliance. The official ROK story is that the SPI has been pushed back due to the cabinet changes to be ushered in under U.S. President George W. Bush's second term are expected to be completed. Through the SPI talks, which will span one or at most two years, the old allies will discuss re-adjusting the meaning and role of the USFK and reformatting their military alliance in ways that are acceptable to both.
The US-ROK are at loggerheads over the cost-sharing issue which the ROK states should be reduced as the US is withdrawing its troops. The cost sharing is negotiated each year, but the radical changes effected in late July with the withdrawal of the 2d Bde 2d ID led to some rapid shifts.
As part of the SPI, Seoul and Washington are discussing turning the USFK into a "regional force," meaning they would no longer focus solely on deterring the DPRK, and could be sent elsewhere in East Asia in times of crisis. The forces in Korea could be deployed to other areas in Asia for support. An example of this was during the devastating tsunami that destroyed great stretches of land with horrific death tolls. Chinook helicopters were deployed to the region to assist in the humanitarian aid effort.
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) President Bush's Proliferation Security Initiative, or PSI, aimed at training troops to intercept weapons of mass destruction at sea. This initiative is meant to keep pressure on North Korea by training to interdict ships carrying suspected WMD (nuclear or missile technology). Plans are underway in 2005 to tighten the screws on the North through limiting its monetary transfers from abroad, freezing its assets and other means. Japan is also considering the implementation of such measures as well. In addition, Japan is introducing a regulation in March that will virtually block all North Korean ships to Japan due to heightened ship standards that the North's ships cannot meet.
JANUARY 2005
Yongsan to House US Embassy Due to the problems -- on-going by the ROK activists -- the US Embassy was suggested to accept a portion of the Yongsan Garrison land (Camp Coiner) in lieu of the promised land that has been in dispute over supposed "cultural treasures" that "may" lie buried underground. The following story was in the Donga Ilbo on 21 Jan 2004.
A New U.S. Embassy Building is not Allowed at the Deoksu Palace Site
JANUARY 21, 2005 22:40 by Chae-Hyun Kwon (confetti@donga.com)
A decision was made to preserve a total of 7,800 pyeong, which includes 1-8, Jung-dong, Jung-gu, Seoul, where Gyeonggi Girls` High School was once located (some 4,500 pyeong) and adjacent areas around 1-39, Agwan Pacheon street (some 3,300 pyeong) as part of an effort to protect important cultural assets. The U.S. Embassy to Korea had planned to build a new embassy building and a residential apartment for its staff on the site.
The decision officially concluded the three-year controversy which began when the U.S. Embassy to Korea decided to build a 15-story new embassy building and an 8-story residential apartment for its staff on the former Gyeonggi Girls’ High School site in May 2002, and requested the National Cultural Properties Research Institute to check whether the site housed cultural assets underground.
The Cultural Properties Committee decided in a joint meeting among four divisions— Cultural Properties Policy Division, Historic Sites Division, Architectural Cultural Properties Division, Buried Cultural Properties Division- in the afternoon of January 21 in the meeting room of the former National Museum of Korea in Gyeongbok Palace.
Jung Yang-mo, head of Cultural Properties Committee, announced, “After researching cultural assets, it was concluded that the site of the area is a historic and cultural place with evidence of Korea’s history during the Daehan Empire era, including Agwan Pacheon street and important buildings of Gyeongwoon (Deoksu palace) such as Seonwonjeon, Heungbokjeon, Heungdeokjeon and Saseongdang, and that the area should be preserved and avoid damage.”
Jung added, “The participants of the meeting reached an agreement to designate the site as a historic relic through discussions with the U.S. right after the site is returned to Korea, and then recommend the government to restore the dismantled buildings there after a through investigation and research.”
In May of last year, Korea and the U.S. agreed that the U.S. will return some 7,800 pyeong of the former Gyeonggi Girls’ High School site which it owns, and in return, Korea will offer a 24,000-pyeong plot in Camp Coiner inside Yongsan Garrison for the construction of a new U.S. embassy building.
The following story is from the Korea Times on 24 Jan.
Yongsan to House US Embassy
By Ryu Jin
Staff Reporter
The U.S. Embassy in Seoul plans to offer an additional plot of land it owns in downtown Seoul for the envisioned land-swapping deal, under which the mission will be relocated to Yongsan, Seoul, officials here said Monday.
The U.S. Embassy, currently located just in front of Kwanghwamun at the center of the capital, originally wanted to move to a new grandiose diplomatic complex at the nearby site of former Kyonggi Girls High School.
But the 4,500-pyong (14,880-square-meter) site has recently been found to have cultural importance, along with the 3,300 pyong (10,910 square meters) of land adjacent to the former school, where a U.S. legation used to be.
``As the recent findings make it virtually impossible to take advantage of the former legation site, now talks are going in the direction of the U.S. offering the two sites in return for the alternative land at Camp Coiner in the U.S.' main Yongsan Garrison, which will be relocated to south of the capital,'' a government official said.
The official hinted that the total area of land given for the new U.S. Embassy will exceed a combined area of 7,800 pyong (25,785 square meters) as the U.S. wants more land, citing the different land prices in the locations.
The U.S. project for building a new embassy complex began in 2001, but hit a snag as civic groups and activists claimed the proposed site, near Toksu Palace of the Choson Kingdom (1392-1910), should not be spoiled by construction.
The results of a cultural survey which came out last week suggested that both sites are of cultural importance and therefore worthy of preservation.
As this outcome for the survey had long been anticipated, the U.S. Embassy and the South Korean government have engaged in lengthy negotiations to find an alternative site for the new mission and housing facilities for embassy staff.
The two sides have all but formally agreed on Camp Coiner, a U.S. military base in the Yongsan Garrison, which will be vacated by American soldiers when they move the Osan-Pyongtaek area just south of Seoul under last year's agreement.
A swap of the high school site for Camp Coiner had long been expected, but the recent ruling also offered an additional 3,300-pyong plot, which has been in the U.S.' possession since the 1940s.
According to last week's findings, the previous proposed sites include a pathway via which Emperor Kojong, the last monarch of the Choson Kingdom, fled from the palace to the Russian legation in 1896 when his throne and life were threatened by the Japanese military not long after Empress Myongsong, his wife, was murdered.
FEBRUARY 2005
ROK ACTIONS
No "Main Enemy" in 2004 MND White Paper The long-awaited Defense White Paper was released on 4 Feb 2005, but politics had removed the term "main enemy" indicating North Korea from the report. The full article is at PINR: South Korea Seeks Strategic Focus Among the Behemoths. The following are excerpts from the rather long and detailed analysis of Korea's struggle to position itself strategically.
The Tracks Get Tangled in South Korea's "Defense White Paper"
While Seoul was launching its peace initiative through its Unification Minister, who represents the Sunshine Policy of incentives diplomacy, presenting its national budget inaugurating its plan for independent self-defense, and negotiating a Security Policy Initiative with Washington, its Defense Ministry was preparing to issue its first white paper on defense in four years on February 4. The white paper, which is usually published annually, had been delayed because of internal conflict over whether North Korea should continue to be named the South's "main enemy," as it had been in the 2000 document.
The "main enemy" designation had been adopted in 1995 after Pyongyang had threatened to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire" during the ongoing conflict over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. Conservative forces inside and outside South Korea's military establishment wanted to keep the designation in place, whereas liberal backers of the Sunshine Policy wanted it to be eliminated. In a compromise, the Defense Ministry substituted "direct and substantial military threat" for "main enemy," but made it clear that the enemy designation would be retained in internal Ministry documents and discussions. An anonymous Ministry official told the Associated Press: "The fact remains that North Korea is our main enemy."
Beyond the weak symbolic concession to the Sunshine Policy, the white paper had little new to offer. Much was made in press reports of the paper's statement that Washington had committed to send 690,000 troops, including 40 percent of the U.S. Navy and 70 percent of the Marine Corps, to South Korea, in case it was attacked by the North, but all reports failed to mention that exactly the same statement had appeared in the 2000 white paper. Adopting all tracks at once, a Defense Ministry press statement explained: "We considered the extraordinary dual nature of inter-Korean ties that we have to push for inter-Korean rapprochement and military preparedness simultaneously." (SITE NOTE: In April 2005, the ROK refused to negotiate its cost sharing stance that it was cutting its contribution by 8.9 percent. The US countered that some pre-positioned equipment may be removed -- and the result is that without pre-positioned equipment there will be cutbacks in some follow-on troops.)
Rather than a coherent policy statement, the white paper is a symptom of conflicts within South Korea's political class and wider society, as the country struggles for strategic focus. It is also an admission that, in a time of strategic uncertainty, it is best to keep all options open and to defer decisive choices.
Despite its tilt toward confrontation, the white paper evoked anger in the G.N.P., which accused Roh of "pampering" Pyongyang. G.N.P. legislator Hwan Jin-ha told Agence France Presse that "the 'main enemy' concept is important to maintain discipline and morale in the army. It must be kept intact as long as North Korea holds to its dream of communizing the Korean peninsula." Pyongyang was equally dissatisfied and threatened first to turn U.S. bases into a "sea of fire" should Washington launch an attack on the North, and then to "thoroughly incinerate the aggressor elements that collude with the U.S. imperialists."
The liberal administration in Seoul is committed to its three-track policy, and that policy reflects a realistic appraisal of Seoul's long term interests in a peaceful and prosperous East Asia in which South Korea is a strong and respected player. Pressures from conservative forces within the country and from Washington and Pyongyang make the success of the strategy dependent on the highest levels of diplomatic and political skill. Faced with the most complex geostrategic predicament in East Asia, South Korea has much to gain and much to lose, depending on how well it performs in the rebalancing act. (SITE NOTE: In Apr 2005, with President Roh in command, the ROK was not doing a very good job as it started into a "diplomacy war" over Tokdo and history. Seoul's three-track geostrategy was becoming a shambles. The first track takes it toward detente with Pyongyang (which continued unabated), the second toward military self-sufficiency (which was given lip service, but none of the funding to make it a reality) and the third toward maintaining and deepening its alliance with Washington (which by Apr 2005 was going swiftly down the toilet). Then it made its announcement of military cooperation with China -- a direct slap to the US and Japan. The ROK was locking itself into a road that was really not a good option for the present -- though one considered for the future.)
PINR: Geostrategic Multiplicity The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. It states, "Seoul's three-track geostrategy is an intelligible response to its predicament. The first track takes it toward detente with Pyongyang, the second toward military self-sufficiency and the third toward maintaining and deepening its alliance with Washington." The only problem is that the ROK has made moves towards an alliance with China -- while Washington is considering China as an adversary as it plans to build up a high-tech army to become the regional power. The full article is at PINR: South Korea Seeks Strategic Focus Among the Behemoths. The following are excerpts from the rather long and detailed analysis of Korea's struggle to position itself strategically.
Geostrategic Multiplicity
As South Korea grapples with its political divisions, which have stalled the reform efforts of Roh's administration and have caused a sharp decline in his popularity in the face of a slowing economy, Seoul has moved in January and February 2005 to begin its repositioning in the changing East Asian balance of power. Seoul's recent readjustment has placed the country on three separate tracks that take it in different directions, but that do not yet force decisive choices, reflecting uncertainty about the future and the need to compromise among conflicting domestic forces. Depending on how the rebalancing of power in East Asia proceeds, the tracks might eventually converge or they might diverge so much that Seoul will have to decide to take one or two of them. For now, it is keeping its options open.
At the top of Seoul's geostrategic interests is settling its conflict with Pyongyang and moving closer to reunification of the North and South, which would eliminate the major military threat to South Korea and, as a consequence, ease its dependence on Washington, free the country to maneuver more flexibly in the region, and eventually join the two Koreas -- either through a close alliance or a single state -- to create a formidable and independent power center. As it attempts to pursue its overriding interest, Seoul is confronted by the Pyongyang regime's determination to maintain its hold on power and, consequently, its reluctance to surrender its nuclear option and to liberalize its closed society, despite food shortages and the immiseration of its population. As long as Pyongyang does not commit itself clearly to detente, South Korea faces a serious threat from its northern neighbor's massive military presence on its border, including artillery that could -- as Pyongyang puts it -- turn Seoul into a "sea of fire."
Seoul's pursuit of detente with Pyongyang is complicated by its relations with Washington, which desires regime change in the North, and has still not taken military action against Pyongyang off the table insisting, at a minimum, that Pyongyang roll back its nuclear program irretrievably before offering it any incentives to cooperate or agreeing to negotiate with it bilaterally. At the same time that it takes a hard line toward Pyongyang, Washington is proceeding with its plans to redeploy most of its military presence in South Korea to the south of Seoul, diminish the number of its troops in the country, and redirect their mission from protecting the country against the North to responding to terrorism in the region and deterring Beijing. Since South Korea is not yet militarily capable of deterring military action from the North, Seoul must take Washington's interests into account as it executes its geostrategy, impeding its pursuit of detente.
Seoul's basic geostrategic predicament of finessing Pyongyang's conflict with Washington is further compounded by the rise of Beijing as a major military power and trading partner, and the possibility that Tokyo will choose to remilitarize if Washington's influence in East Asia diminishes, forcing Seoul to choose sides or to develop its own high-tech military capabilities, and perhaps even a nuclear option, to achieve a measure of strategic independence. Maneuvering among behemoths that have underlying conflicting interests, Seoul faces the most complex geostrategic situation in East Asia.
Seoul's three-track geostrategy is an intelligible response to its predicament. The first track takes it toward detente with Pyongyang, the second toward military self-sufficiency and the third toward maintaining and deepening its alliance with Washington.
The other problem that faces Korea is the unrealistic "Independent Self-Defense Force" or "Self-reliant Defence" that President Roh keeps talking about. Roh's vision is such a force by the year 2010, but at the current rate of investment, it will never reach that point.
An "Independent Self-Defense Force"
The 2005 budget presented by Roh to South Korea's National Assembly on January 31 reflected the peace initiative by increasing allocations for cooperation with Pyongyang by 53.3 percent. However, the major spending increases were apportioned to programs aimed at creating a high-tech military capable of "independent self-defense." (SITE NOTE: Unfortunately, the National Assembly reshuffled the priorities and cancelled many promised purchases. The F-15K was funded, but the projected purchase of used PAC-2 Patriots from Germany was scrapped in the SAM-X Program delay. The helicopter and AWACS programs are stalled. C4I upgrade programs (4CSRI) that the ROK wanted the US to pay for seems to be headed to the dumpster --as the US is refusing to pay the bill.)
Unsure of Pyongyang's willingness to respond favorably to incentives diplomacy and of Washington's long term commitment to its security, Seoul is constrained to try to build a credible military deterrent. As an immediate measure, Seoul intends to procure advanced weapons systems including AWACS to allow it to do its own monitoring of potential threats. More importantly, the portion of the defense budget committed to research and development is slated to rise from its current 4.5 percent to 10 percent by 2015, with the aim -- announced by Minister of Science and Technology Oh Myung -- of developing the capability of producing high-tech weapons. (SITE NOTE: This is a pipe-dream as the MND wants to start the AWACS bidding process from scratch and the promises of raising the share for defense expenditures has NEVER been kept so far. See Korea Marches to Its Own Drum on how the promised upgrades are being reshuffled and delayed.)
Although, for its economic interests, Seoul might desire to continue depending heavily on Washington for its military security, its broader strategic aims and the refocusing of Washington's goals in the region -- primarily balancing Beijing -- dictate that it pursue a more independent defense policy. (SITE NOTE: Due to the shenanigans of Roh in March 2005, the apple cart of the US-ROK alliance got overturned. The ROK refusal to negotiate on cost-sharing issues in Apr 2005 would cost about 1000 Koreans their jobs. It appears that the US was looking to Japan to change its Peace Constitution and there may be moves to shift the troops from Korea to Japan if the draft was finished by Nov 2005.)
There is no inconsistency between Seoul's preference for diplomacy and its embarking on a second military track; indeed, a credible and self-produced deterrent would be likely to make Pyongyang more amenable to peace initiatives and would position Seoul as a respected and independent partner in a regional security arrangement should one arise. In the event that the diplomatic track fails, military might would ward off or blunt threats of dependency. A defense build up also placates South Korea's own military establishment, which has close links to Washington, remains suspicious of the North and has affiliations with and generally supports the opposition G.N.P. (SITE NOTE: Roh has three more years in power -- and even if he falls into a lame-duck status, he and the Uri Party will still be in power. The Uri Party is slowly losing seats in the National Assembly and no longer has a majority, but it will be a while before the GNP regains any power.)
Talks on Defense Cost-sharing Makes Progress According to Yonhap News on 25 Feb, South Korea and the United States have as yet failed to reach a full agreement on how much Seoul should contribute toward the cost of keeping U.S. military forces on its soil, but they have narrowed differences significantly.
South Korea began directly contributing funds toward the U.S. deployment in 1991 when it paid US$150 million. (SITE NOTE: This was directly tied to the SOFA as that was the first year the SOFA had been significantly revamped since 1963. Previously, the ROK had a "free-ride.") The ROK's contribution has since more than quadrupled to $623 million by 2004. After three unsuccessful rounds of talks since early November, the two sides met again on 23-24 Feb in Washington to set this year's amount. "There was progress...but, differences still remain," said Kim Sook, director general of the South Korean Foreign Ministry's North American Affairs Bureau. He heads Seoul's team for the negotiations. The chief U.S. negotiator for the talks is Robert Loftis, a senior adviser in the U.S. State Department's bureau of political military affairs.
South Korea wants to cut or at least freeze its share for this year, citing current downsizing and other changes to the U.S. troop presence here. Pointing to the case of Japan, however, the U.S. wants to raise South Korea's contribution by about 12-13 percent under its long-term policy guideline that calls for having Seoul finance 75 percent of the cost of supporting American troops here.
In this week's talks, a key sticking point was removed after U.S. negotiators dropped a demand that Seoul share the cost of upgrading the military's communications system, called "C4." South Korea has maintained that it is unfair to demand the sharing of the cost of upgrading the C4 system as the issue of funding the project was settled in a separate agreement reached last year. (NOTE: This can be interpreted two ways: One, the US will upgrade the ROK C4 interfaces with US monies; or two, the ROK will NOT receive the upgrades and will operate on their own to figure out how to fit into the high-speed battle tactics of the US. In Apr 2005, indications were that it would be the latter.)
Remaining differences also include the duration of the expected agreement. The U.S. wants to make this year's agreement effective for at least three years, citing the difficulty of conducting negotiations every year. But South Korea wants to limit this year's agreement only to this year as there could be new changes to the U.S. troop presence in coming years. (SITE NOTE: In the end, the duration was set at two years -- much to the anger of the ROK negotiators. In Apr 2005, the ROK negotiators "froze" in their stance on the cost-sharing issue and flatly stated that the US could bring it up again in two years -- indicating that there was a lot of animosity in the negotiations.)
The two sides agreed to hold the next round of talks in Seoul in mid-March. (SITE NOTE: The standard ROK strategy is to "go cheap" and force the other party to pay the tab. Unfortunately, the ROK was not in a good position as the dollar was falling in value. The US was intent on pulling out of Korea -- at least as far as Japan -- and the US populace and US Congress was becoming vocal about the troops "locked" in Korea. This in turn, made Korea even more uncertain about the US deterent in its future and made the pursuit of a "self-reliant defense" plausible -- with a possible realignment with China.)
The U.S. plans to withdraw a total of 12,500 troops, or about a third of the total presence, in stages by 2008. They include 3,600 troops who have already redeployed to Iraq. About 1,400 more were to leave South Korea by late last year, another 5,000 in 2005-2006 and 2,500 in 2007-September 2008.
USFK ACTIONS
97 Percent of Yongsan to be Turned Over "As-is" The following is from the AFP on 3 Feb 2005.
S. Korea, U.S. Begin Talks on New Alliance’s Future
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, SEOUL
South Korea and the United States on Feb. 3 opened new talks aimed at reshaping their half-century-old military alliance, moves that have sparked security jitters here.
The talks addressed the sensitive issue of expanding the role of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea from deterrence against North Korea to a regional rapid redeployment force, Yonhap news agency said.
The defense ministry said only that the talks focused on relocation of U.S. bases here, U.S. troop reductions, and South Korea’s increased responsibility for its own defense.
“The talks are aimed at drawing up a blueprint for the alliance in the lead-up to the reunification (of the Korean peninsula),” said Ahn Kwang-Chan, policy director of the defense ministry and chief South Korean delegate to the so-called Security Policy Initiative (SPI) talks.
He told journalists that the blueprint would take into account “future inter-Korean ties and changes to the security situation on the Korean peninsula and its surrounding areas.”
The talks are a follow-up to the Future of the Alliance consultation between Seoul and Washington that began in early 2002 and continued until late last year.
Delegates are expected to meet every two months for negotiations expected to take up to two years, Ahn said. The U.S. side is represented by deputy under secretary of defense, Richard Lawless.
The United States has announced a plan to move most U.S. troops away from the frontline with North Korea to Pyeongtaek, 70 kilometers (43 miles) south of Seoul, by 2008.
The number of U.S. troops in South Korea dropped from 37,500 to 32,500 last year. Some 3,600 troops were re-deployed to Iraq, while 1,400 more left by the end of last year.
A further 5,000 troops are scheduled to quit the country in 2005-2006 and another 2,500 by 2008.
Any move to give U.S. troops based here a regional role would place the country at the center of regional disputes, some politicians and civic groups argue.
Kwon Young-Kil, lawmaker of the liberal Democratic Labor Party, said South Korean security could be compromised.
“If the United States expands the role of the U.S. forces to contain China, China would respond to it and military tensions would rise on the Korean peninsula and the region,” he said.
Some 30 representatives from four activists’ groups, including the Solidarity for Peace and Reunification of Korea, rallied outside the defense ministry here where SPI talks got under way.
“We strongly urge the government to reject the unjust U.S. demand to expand the role of the U.S. forces and switch the bilateral military alliance to regional defense alliance,” said a statement.
“This is not only harmful to our security but to the economy as well because China is South Korea’s largest trading partner,” said a spokesman of the Solidarity for Peace and Reunification of Korea.
Protest Group Against Move to Pyongtaek Starts Petition Drive "The "Pyongtaek Solution Committee Against Expansion of U.S. Troops and Relocation" opposed to relocating Yongsan Garrison said would petition the South Korean Constitutional Court to block the impending base closure on 20 Feb. The civic NGO group said it plans to present the petition March 10 and hopes to have at least 1,000 signatures. Land issues and burden sharing of the move costs — now estimated by the South Korean government at $5.3 billion for all of the reshuffling plans — top the group’s concerns. The group said it plans to gather many of the signatures from landowners whose property now stands on what will become an expanded U.S. base in Pyongtaek, where the commands at Yongsan Garrison are to be moved.
MARCH 2005
INTERNATIONAL ACTIONS
China and Japan Perceptions A good overview of the situation in 2005 was done by LTC David W. Shin in his article ROK and the
United States 2004–2005: Managing Perception Gaps? published in Feb 2005. We found his remarks on the China-Korea situation and US-Japan relationship as it impacts Korea to be insightful. The Chinese historical flap occurred in 2004 and died down when China denied it was for territorial gains. Koreans do not completely "trust" the Chinese -- but they do see them as a great business opportunity and fertile ground for their export-driven economy. "According to a recent opinion poll, nearly 50 percent of all respondents indicated that
China should be the country that Korea maintains the closest diplomatic ties with if the
U.S.-ROK alliance deteriorates." This is appropriate as Roh starts his military "cooperation" with China.
T H E C H I N A F A C T O R
China remains an important factor in South Korea’s strategic calculations. Some
suggest the Roh administration was clearly leaning toward China, while others stress
it remains committed to the U.S.-ROK alliance but also wants friendly relations with
China. However, most South Koreans seem to agree that China’s recent claims to the
history of Koguryo — an ancient Korean Kingdom that extended from the northern part
of the peninsula into northeast China — convinced many in South Korea to rethink the
future role of China in the Korean peninsula. It was evident that most South Koreans
interpreted China’s claim to Koguryo negatively, and it has rekindled South Korean
perceptions of China as a threat. They took great umbrage (some even suspected Chinese
territorial ambitions) at competing Chinese claims to “ownership” of the ancient
kingdom’s historical heritage. The China debate appears to have persuaded many in South
Korea that the U.S. is the only major power in Northeast Asia that does not have any
territorial designs on Korea, while the others in the region have historical tendencies to
dominate the Korean peninsula. The pendulum appears to have swung back in favor of the
U.S. for the time being, but one is reminded that China still looms large in Korea.
According to a recent opinion poll, nearly 50 percent of all respondents indicated that
China should be the country that Korea maintains the closest diplomatic ties with if the
U.S.-ROK alliance deteriorates.
U . S . - J A P A N R E L A T I O N S
South Korea is very concerned about U.S. efforts to expand the U.S.-Japan security
alliance. Many believe the pace of change in Japan’s security posture is too fast and
they fear its lofty status as America’s most important ally in the Asia-Pacific will result in
an inevitable downgrade in Korea’s own status. Some wonder whether this is happening
to counter China. As a shrimp among whales, South Korea is concerned about the rising
tensions between Japan and China. South Koreans are also aware of the speculation that
a Northeast Asia command will be formed at Camp Zama, Japan. South Korea is unlikely
to accept any U.S. command structure that subordinates U.S. forces in Korea to a
headquarters located in Japan. They seem to view this as an indication that Korean interests
are being subordinated to Japanese interests. Although cultural exchanges between the two
countries have advanced significantly over the last five years, South Korea appears to be
wary of Japanese attempts to strengthen bilateral security relations. Some of the discussions
also indicate that South Korea will continue to resist U.S. initiatives to expand U.S.-Japan-
ROK security cooperation. This is in part because of its historical legacy with Japan, but also
because it does not want to unnecessarily antagonize China.
US Policy on Asia Sound The following article by James Kelly expounds on the changes -- or lack thereof -- in US policy in Asia, as well as subtle changes in the opening of communication channels between China and the US. When looking at the changes in Korea, one must also consider the occurrences happening around it. James Kelly has hands-on credibility as the foremost negotiator in the frustrating DPRK nuclear negotiations up to 2005. James A. Kelly was the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs from 2001-2005. He is counselor to the Ho-nolulu-based Pacific Forum and senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. These comments were made in remarks to the Pacific Forum CSIS' Honolulu International Forum on Feb. 23. and posted on March 20, 2005.
No need to shift gears in U.S. policy on Asia
By James A. Kelly
As President Bush begins his second term, many have asked how announced and anticipated changes in his foreign policy team will affect U.S. policy in Asia. Although I can't predict the prospects for U.S. policy over the next four years, it is safe to say there will be no profound differences.
First, many policy aspects worked reasonably well in the first administration; there is little reason to change them. Second, President Bush and Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice have been intimately involved in every important component of East Asia-Pacific policy over the past several years, so there is no reason to expect major shifts.
Finally, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick has both affinity for and firsthand experience in Asian political issues, as well as the economic issues on which he put so much attention as U.S. trade representative.
As I look back over the past four years, engaging China and handling its "peaceful rise" was inevitably the top priority. Since the "bad days" of the EP-3 crisis, we have developed a cooperative, constructive, and candid relationship with China.
By candid, I mean there are a number of issues over which we have strong disagreements: human rights and protection of intellectual property rights, to name but two. But it is important to note that there have been an increasing number of issues on which we cooperate very well.
China has changed a lot over the past decade. Its diplomats — and many of China's leaders — are very intelligent, and well educated. They are capable, and far more confident.
Before and during the Clinton administration, phone calls between top officials or senior diplomats were unusual, and sometimes they took 24-36 hours to arrange. During much of the EP-3 incident, no one on the Chinese side was taking calls. Now, we have as many as four to five senior-level calls a month, some with only 30 minutes notice on either side.
Overhanging this is a complex and important economic relationship. The United States has an enormous trade deficit with China, and U.S. companies have invested significant amounts of money in China.
For its part, China (as has Japan and others) has huge foreign exchange reserves that are invested in U.S. Treasury instruments, and that has a powerful impact on the U.S. economy.
Two important domestic factors shape Beijing's thinking: the first is economic growth and improvements in the lives of many Chinese; the other is rising nationalism. There are many causes of that nationalism, but it's fair to say most Chinese people are sensitive to what they believe to be 200 years of mistreatment by foreigners and they "are mad as hell and not going to take it anymore."
This cultivated but real sense of victimization does put some limit on Chinese government action. But does that tell us where a most untransparent China is going to go?
Some, not many, believe that China is headed for a bad end and we had better be prepared for a new Cold War. Others are optimistic, given China's movement into status as a global power.
There are conflicting possibilities, and the United States must be mindful of both sets.
Another point of emphasis for the Bush administration has been its alliances in Asia. That is something we feel pretty good about. The U.S.-Japan relationship has never been stronger. That is the product of hard work on both sides and important changes in Japan.
North Korea's admission that it abducted Japanese citizens and its development of ballistic missiles have helped make Japan a supporter of ballistic missile defense. The joint declaration produced by the Feb. 19 Security Consultative Committee should not be seen as new or shocking, but it is a robust statement that goes beyond what earlier Japanese governments would have said.
The press is full of stories about how the U.S.-South Korea alliance is beset with difficulties. It is true that there are some problems but not as much as media suggest. There are tangible accomplishments, too.
South Korea has the third largest number of military forces in Iraq (behind only the U.S. and Britain). After years of effort, we have reached agreement on moving U.S. forces out of Yongsan Base in Seoul. We have agreed on the realignment of U.S. forces in Korea. And, President Roh Moo-hyun has excellent communication with President Bush. He speaks directly and sincerely.
On North Korea, when it counts, we are on the same page. The determination to have a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons is clear.
At the same time, South Korea has an understandable preference for keeping things calm. If tensions go up, the risk premium on South Korea's extensive public and private borrowing goes up. As a result, there is a powerful economic disincentive to raising tensions on the DMZ.
South Koreans, with 52 years of hard work to build prosperity south of a mostly peaceful DMZ, have complex views about the North that complicate issues, but the alliance endures for good reasons.
When I got back to Washington four years ago, I was surprised at the deterioration of U.S.-Philippine relations.
Concern for the war on terror and good leadership chemistry has improved relations, but there are still problems with the basic approach of the Republic of the Philippines to life in East Asia. Forty years ago, the Philippines was Asia's most prosperous country (less Japan) and that is not true today. Why?
When the Philippines finds the solution to that question and unlocks the unquestioned talent of its 80 million people, that will be very good news.
Our relationship with Thailand has been strengthened. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has proven to be a strong and occasionally mercurial leader.
While Indonesia is not a treaty ally, our relationship with that country also is very important. Last year was a remarkable experience in democracy with three national elections that ended with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as president.
The tsunami has been a setback for the new administration, and there are a host of other problems, but at the same time these have provided a catalyst for the United States to improve relations with that country.
The Indonesian experience is a reminder that the spread of democracy in the Asia-Pacific region has been a very strong story in many respects. Last year witnessed a long list of elections in more than 10 countries. Much is now routine, but no less remarkable given where Asia and the Pacific have been.
Our relationship with Vietnam has significantly improved. But Vietnam is still — with delays in its World Trade Organization membership — behind the economic power curve.
Four years ago, we signed a bilateral trade agreement, but for internal political reasons, Hanoi had delayed that for two years. It has since discovered that that action in turn delayed its accession to the WTO, putting it behind competitors and, in particular, adversely affecting the textile sector.
Although there is still lots of distrust, there has been a significant improvement in relations. Vietnam's prime minister is expected to visit Washington later this year.
The Vietnamese have a love of education and a determination to move ahead that is as strong as that in China and perhaps stronger than much of the rest of Southeast Asia. It will take them a few more years to sort though internal political impediments, however.
Now, I'll turn to regional organizations and opportunities.
Just a few years ago, China seemed to hate the idea of multilateral organizations. Beijing felt such gatherings were occasions to criticize China and its activities. Still, China decided to grit its teeth and join.
As a result, there is now a significant group of educated and experienced people who attend the events, and China is eager to participate in multilateral organizations. And if the United States isn't in them, that is just fine with Beijing. This applies to the various ASEAN plus 3 (or more) groupings and, now, the East Asia Summit.
Some worry that the United States is giving the initiative to China in the region. In particular, the China-ASEAN free trade agreements have won a lot of attention.
But the United States is not being dealt out. The Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative — a series of Trade and Investment Agreements with strong support from former Trade Representative Zoellick, are moving forward.
Leading emphasis continues to be on Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the region's sole all-inclusive gathering, both for following through on its agreed trade liberalization and in relating it to political/security concerns that directly impact trade. We are still unclear about the proposed and poorly defined East Asia summit.
Is it different from the ASEAN Plus Three? No one knows. Possibly India is going to go to the meeting, but probably not Australia and New Zealand. The United States has not been invited.
Challenges remain. The threat raised by North Korea and the nuclear weapons it undoubtedly has remains a most serious problem. North Korea has had at least 14 years to work with plutonium and to make a weapon. It has hard workers who are smart and well educated. Logic alone says the North could have weapons — you don't need particular intelligence.
It was reported that Pakistani A.Q. Khan has said that he was taken to a cave and shown three nuclear weapons ready to fit on a missile. Eight or 10 times the North has said that it has such weapons, and it has certainly worked hard to that end in various kinds of technology.
The six-party talks are an appropriate venue — involving each national player with essential interests — but North Korea has been working on nuclear weapons for very many years and it is not about to easily give them up.
Pyongyang will certainly make a deal, but it wants an arrangement that guarantees what it sees as its security, avoids any issues like human rights, pays generously and only requires it to give up some of its nuclear-weapons capabilities. Solving this problem is going to be a long and difficult process. Delay involves risks.
The possibility that the DPRK might sell weapons or other fissile material to any buyer, although it says that it would not, is a potential nightmare. Yet, various id
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