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This page is graphically intense with long load times due to photos. However, the photos and narratives by the men who served at Osan Air Base makes the wait well worthwhile. The opinions expressed are those of the author and in no way represents any official statement of Osan AB or the USAF.

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NORTH KOREA MISSILE CRISIS 2006-Present

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RETURN TO MAIN TABLE OF CONTENTS

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE CRISIS

Potential Missile "Test" Launches (May 2006) On 19 May, reports stated that South Korean and U.S. military authorities detected some signs of activity near a missile unit in North Hamkyong Province earlier this week. Korean and American intelligence agencies used high-tech surveillance devices such as spy satellites to capture movements of trailers carrying missile-like objects at a missile test site in Musudan-ri (formerly Daepo-dong), Hwadae-gun, North Hamgyong Province. U.S. spy satellites can differentiate between objects as small as 10 to 15 centimeters from 600 kilometers above ground level, enabling it to survey movements of North Korea's missile activities. "We have been closely watching the North after increased movement of trailers and other materials earlier this week through the Korea-U.S. alliance's KH-11 military satellite," a military official said requesting to remain anonymous.

However, the ROK said they were still analyzing whether North Korea is moving to launch a missile or if it is merely demonstrating against U.S. pressure to give up its nuclear weapons programs. Japan's Kyodo News and public broadcaster NHK, quoting unidentified South Korean sources, said satellite pictures showed there has been activity around a site in northeastern North Korea, such as the movement of trailer trucks carrying what appeared to be missiles. However, a military analyst said, "We cannot confirm that a missile launch is being prepared until North Korea starts putting fuel into the missile," adding that "We see it as North Korea's challenge against pressure asserted by the U.S." North Korea had issued a memorandum in March last year that stated, "We are not obliged to withhold the launching of missiles," leading to speculations that North Korea may be trying to retract an agreement against the test-firing of missiles. (SITE NOTE: That 90 percent of all North Korean intelligence comes from the US, this response is "political" as the ROK tries to play patty-cake with the North. The analogy is that the North Korea has a gun to my head, but I won't know if his intentions are aggressive or not until he pulls the trigger. Thus I'll just wait and see.)

The ROK Ministry of Defense publicly stated that they were checking on the "veracity" of the reports and has played down its significance. South Korea's Defense Ministry said that it was monitoring the situation closely and trying to verify the facts through several channels. Though in the middle of launch preparations, it was uncertain if there would be a launch. ``We are trying to confirm the report's authenticity, but so far I don't believe it is highly trustworthy,'' a senior ministry official said, asking not to be named. (SITE NOTE: If the report supposedly came through the use of THEIR KH-11 military satellite, we wonder why they don't deny that report --.unless the report is true. This same ROK tactic was used on denying the North's counterfeit "supernote" operations -- denying there was proof. The end is to not antagonize the North.)

According to NHK, the missile could be a Taepdong-II ballistic missile that could reach as far as the U.S. mainland, citing unnamed U.S. government sources. The 32-meter-long (115 feet) Taepdong-II has a firing range of more than 6,700 kilometers (4,200 miles), making it capable of hitting Alaska with a light payload, experts say. If the missile was a modified version of the Taepdong-II, it could have a range of 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles), which would cover the entire United States.


Taepodong I & II

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said his government didn't see any imminent danger of a missile launch. ``In fact, we understand that it (the missile) has been brought to the site. But we are not sure about any subsequent moves.''

In 1998, North Korea stunned the region by test-firing a long-range Taepdong-I ballistic missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. A Taepdong missile is described as a two or three-stage ballistic missile with an estimated range of up to 4,000 kilometers (2,486 miles). North Korea announced a moratorium on long-range missile tests in 1999 but has since test-fired short-range missiles many times, including two in early March. In testimony to the U.S. Congress in March, Gen. B. B. Bell, USFK commander, said North Korea was believed to be preparing to field a new ballistic missile capable of reaching Okinawa, Guam and probably Alaska.

Tokyo has been in a hurry to bolster its missile defenses ever since and in March hailed the successful testing of an interceptor missile with the United States as part of joint defense research begun in 1999. In December, the Japanese government officially approved a plan to develop a more advanced missile defense system with the United States. (Source: Korea Times and Korea Herald.) (SITE NOTE: What was curious was that the heightened tension comes at a time when the US stated that it might be changing its stance and would consider a change of the armistice to a peace treaty. A missile launch will stiffle any chance of a peace treaty -- and spur on the Japanese preparations for possible preemptive missile strike capabilities (which it is capable of doing very easily) for its own protection. This is suspected as part of the North's brinkmanship strategy. While having talks with the South to ease military tension, North Korea focused on disputing the Yellow Sea boundary and has been preparing in secret to launch a missile. While pretending to be eager to have talks with the South, North Korea is playing a game of brinksmanship in order to survive heavy U.S. pressure, such as economic sanctions, by increasing military tensions. If there is a launch, the US and Japan will act accordingly. China would respond to the North also, because stability on the Korean Peninsula is one of China's major concerns. South Korea, however, seems to continue to support the North with its "look into the veracity of reports" attitude -- the same response to the counterfeit "supernote" issue. It continues to hold high-level military negotiations on measures to ease military tension while North Korea develops nuclear weapons and threatens to fire missiles.)

Imminent Launch??? (June 2006) Pyongyang is in the final stages of launching a Taepdong-2 ballistic missile, the conservative Sankei newspaper reported, citing unnamed government sources. The report did not explain what those final preparations involved. The U.S. military has dispatched a spy plane and the Japanese Defense Agency has sent a destroyer with advanced reconnaissance equipment and an attack aircraft loaded with radar-jamming electronics to gather information, the report said. In Seoul, a senior South Korean intelligence official said his agency knows about the North's preparation of a missile launch through sources other than satellite photos. 'It remains unclear whether North Korea is demonstrating its capability or is really preparing to fire a missile,' the official said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the information.

Sankei reported that radio communications intercepted near a missile test-site in northeast North Korea changed in early May, signaling an imminent launch. The newspaper did not elaborate. An advanced version of Taepdong-2, believed to have a range of 9,300 miles, could travel as far as the west coast of the United States, although there are widespread doubts about its reach and accuracy. The North's missile capability is one of the most prominent security concerns in northeast Asia, along with the isolated nation's nuclear program. (Source: Topix.net, Associated Press.)

US says Missile Refueled -- ROK says Missile Not Fueled (June 2006) The New York Times on 19 Jun quoted an unnamed U.S. government official as saying North Korea appears to have completed fueling a long-range ballistic missile, with satellite intelligence suggesting "that booster rockets had been loaded onto a launch pad, and liquid-fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site in North Korea's remote east coast." Warnings that North Korea appears close to test-firing an intercontinental missile are escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula. North Korea appears to have completed injecting liquid fuel into a long-range ballistic missile, the final stage before the launch, intelligence authorities in the U.S. and Korea said. They stated that the missile should either be fired or the fuel removed within 24 hours of fuel injection. All that remains is "the click of a button," a Foreign Ministry official said. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

However, suddenly the ROK government reversed itself stating the missile was not fueled, that it was most likely a satellite launch -- and takes a stance that the US is wrong. Seoul thinks even if a missile is fired, it is not necessarily a military device, and sees reports in the U.S. and Japanese press that claim a launch is imminent as unreliable. The South Korean government said it cannot conclude that liquid fuel has been injected into the rocket, as U.S. reports claim, nor whether the missile carries a warhead or a satellite. Indeed, authorities here say the fact that the missile launch pad is being put up above ground in full view of the spy satellites makes it more likely that the North aims to launch a satellite. (SITE NOTE: This is the original ROK stance that there is no evidence that the North Koreans intended to fire the missile -- but then they also say the same things about the North's counterfeit operations as well. As the intelligence the ROK uses for its decision-making comes from US satellite imagery, we wonder how they come up with their outlook. The ROK reasoning of "above-ground" equates to a "satellite launch" is so incredibly lame that it insults one's intelligence.) (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

But bad weather near Musudanri, North Hamgyong Province where the launch pad is deployed is reportedly making it difficult to conduct an immediate test launch of the Taepodong 2-type missile. "It's likely that weather conditions will remain unfavorable to a test on Monday," a military official said. Washington said it would not sit idle. "We, of course, will take necessary preparatory steps to track any potential activities and to protect ourselves," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. Such "protective steps" are presumed to include intercepting the missile at an early stage with Aegis destroyers in the East Sea. There was no comment as to whether the 7th Fleet Aegis destroyers and Japanese Aegis destroyers were on location in the East Sea.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned if the missile is dropped on Japan, "it will be regarded as an attack." Tokyo says it will refer the matter to the UN Security Council for sanction. Both the U.S. and Japan are publicly discussing sanctions against the North in the event of a missile test, and even a sea blockade. The Pentagon spokesman and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice again referred to any North Korean launch as 'a provocative act.' And Secretary Rice says she has been coordinating possible responses with allies. Secretary Rice says a launch would violate North Korea's own moratorium, and she says maintaining the moratorium is part of the agreement North Korea signed last September to pursue a diplomatic solution to the dispute over its nuclear program. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

The Defense Department says in the absence of any statement by the North Korean government it will not be possible to know whether a widely expected missile launch is a test or an attack. The Pentagon spokesman hinted to reporters that if North Korea launches a missile the United States might use its new missile defense system (MDS). The MDS relies on radars and other systems on the ground and on satellites to detect missile launches and deploy interceptors to shoot them down. The system has had some recent successes, but is not yet fully operational. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SITE NOTE: If the Aegis SM3 missiles attempt to shoot down the Taepodong missile and fail, it would be a massive public relations blow to the MDS program. If the Aegis do shoot down the missile and it falls on Japanese land, what then? Is the North Koreans at fault for an attack on Japan? Given the options for the US-Japan, there is also the option of simply letting the missile fly. However, once the missile overflies Japanese territory, then what? Japan stated it would go to the UN, but there are other more terrifying options that enter the picture. Whatever happens, it will be messy.)

Japan now appears very likely to accelerate work on implementing recently enhanced security arrangements with the US and bilateral cooperation on a missile defense system. In April 1996, then prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and then US president Bill Clinton issued a joint security declaration in Tokyo reaffirming the importance of the bilateral security alliance in the post-Cold War era. The next year, Japan and the US adopted new defense cooperation guidelines to flesh out the declaration.

Beginning in May 1999, Japan set about enacting laws needed to put these agreements into effect. The government initially faced opposition the Diet (Japan's parliament). But the increased sense of crisis among many Japanese over threats posed by North Korea smoothed the way for passage, helped by provocations from Pyongyang.

Heading the list of provocations was the multi-stage Taepodong-1 missile the North sent without warning over Japan into the northern Pacific in August 1998. Also, two North Korean spy ships were spotted in March 1999 in Japanese territorial waters off the Noto Peninsula, central Japan. In December 2001, a North Korean spy ship blew itself up and sank after a fire fight with Japan Coast Guard patrol boats in waters off the Amami Islands, Kagoshima prefecture.

North Korea's 1998 Taepodong-1 missile launch also spurred Tokyo to begin joint technological research with Washington on a missile defense system the following year. In December last year, the Koizumi government formally committed to the joint development of a new sea-based interceptor missile, called the Standard Missile-3 (SM3), as a main pillar of the US-led system. The joint development cost is estimated at a maximum of $2.7 billion, with Japan shouldering up to $1.2 billion and the US paying the rest.

Japan also decided in late 2003 to introduce a defensive system, using existing interceptor missiles, by 2007. Well over 100 Patriot Advanced Capability 3, or PAC3, surface-to-air missiles will be procured by the end of fiscal 2010. PAC3 missiles are intended to hit incoming missiles at an altitude of up to 20 kilometers that have escaped missiles launched from Japanese destroyers.

In July last year, Japan revised the Self-Defense Forces law to allow the Defense Agency chief to order emergency missile interceptions without waiting for approval from the prime minister and the cabinet. Since North Korean missiles would reach Japanese territory in about 10 minutes, the defense chief could not afford to follow normal procedures.

On June 23, Japan and the US signed an agreement to formally begin the joint development of an advanced SM3. And recently, the Bush administration reportedly notified Tokyo that it would deploy PAC3 missiles at a base in Okinawa by year's end. The deployment will be the first time the surface-to-air missiles have been installed to defend US forces in Japan from possible North Korean missile attacks.

On June 22, a US Navy ship intercepted a medium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program. The US said the test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. The Japanese destroyer Kirishima practiced tracking the target, marking the first time that a Japanese Aegis destroyer had participated in a US interception test. (Source: Asia Times.)

Roh Moo-hyun Snubbed (June 2006) When the missile issue reached a critical stage, Bush called the leaders of Japan, Russia, and China. He neglected to phone South Korean president Roh Moo Hyun, though South Korea is a key ally in the region. The two presidents haven't talked by phone for nearly a year even though, in addition to the missile crisis, the two countries are in the midst of a major restructuring of the military alliance and a proposed free trade agreement. A summit in Washington was hastily patched together for September, but Bush will not likely escort the South Korean leader to Graceland as he did for Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi. The harshest blow that the Bush administration can strike against the ROK government it doesn't particularly like is to withhold any support for South Korea's policy of engaging the North.

At the same time, the launch preparations came just before the United States conducted one of its largest military exercises in the Asia-Pacific in decades. "Valiant Shield," which had been months in planning, brought together three aircraft carriers, 30 ships, 280 aircraft, and 22,000 troops for five days of maneuvers. More critically, China for the first time had observer status for the exercises. From Pyongyang's point of view, it's bad enough that Japan, South Korea, and the United States all test their toys together. But when they invited China to the playground as well ­- even in the interests of overall conflict management ­- don't expect North Korea to sit quietly on the sidelines. (Source: http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0652Feffer.html.)

North Korea fires Missiles (July 2006) On 5 July North Korea test-fired at least six missiles over the Sea of Japan, including a Taepodong-2 intercontinental missile that apparently failed or was aborted 42 seconds after it was launched. The launches took place over more than four hours. A seventh missile was launched some 12 hours later. At least six missiles were launched early in the morning and a seventh some 12 hours later, officials in Japan and the ROK said. Russia said the DPRK fired 10 missiles, but the report from a senior general could not be immediately confirmed.

The Taepodong-2 was launched in a northern launch site. Further south, the North fired Scud-C and Rodong missiles. Six missiles, of which two are said to be short-range, fell into the East Sea between North Korea and Japan. The missiles that the North fired from southern sites appeared to be a mix of two short-range Scud-C missiles and four intermediate-range Rodong missiles, of the kind that the North has sold to Iran, Pakistan and other nations.

(SITE NOTE: Though not publicly stated, the impression is that North Korea used the tests to show that it had the power to attack Japan at will since the Rodong missile "tested" has the ability to reach anywhere in Japan. The fact that it was a mass of missiles also made it obvious to the Japanese that the North was sending its message directly to the Japanese public -- but also indirectly reminding its "brother" that it could also be a target. Kim Jong Il is not only trying to get the attention of the international community, he is reminding the North Korean military that he has their interests at heart. North Korea is still under a "military-first" regime. This is a dangerous game.)

While the test itself was a sign of North Korea's defiance of the United States, for the administration, the outcome was as favorable as officials could have hoped for: the North's capacity was called into question, and the North's enigmatic leader, Kim Jong Il, has now put himself at odds with the two countries that have provided him aid, China and South Korea. However, this time China may agree to take up the issue because it must be aware of the seriousness of the situation and because of its position as the chair of the six-party nuclear talks. But Beijing's support for sanctions appears unlikely. Among the participant countries in the talks, China, Russia and South Korea have advocated a softer approach to Pyongyang, while the US and Japan have taken a harder line.China and Russia appear unlikely to agree to economic sanctions against Pyongyang despite the tests, thus nullifying the threats of international sanctions by Japan and the US.

In 1999, a year after testing a Taepodong long-range rocket and failing to put an intended satellite into orbit, Kim Jong Il declared a moratorium on all missile testing. North Korea was offered an economic "carrot" package to advance a deal that would have traded its missile program for a package of various goodies. This followed the 2002 moratorium extension. However, since the Bush administration never followed up on this initiative and since rocket launches do NOT violate any international agreements, Pyongyang's decision to abandon its moratorium came as no surprise.


Japan-North Korea (Kagoshima) (Apr 2003)

The launching also makes it difficult for the South Koreans to continue their policy of providing aid and investment to the North, a program that has caused deep rifts with Washington. South Korea expressed ``profound regrets'' at the North's ``unwise act'' that would have negative consequences, saying that it would decide how to respond to the provocation through close consultations with neighboring countries. North Korea watchers in Seoul predicted that the deterioration of the security situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula and a turndown in inter-Korean relations would be inevitable. (Source: Korea Times.)

As expected, the ROK citizenry reacted according to their political bent. While some urge the government to change its North-friendly policies, others say that although the North deserves criticism, the government's pursuit of a spirit of co-existence and inter-Korean cooperation should not be shaken. ROK's business community voiced concerns that the launches of missiles by the DPRK could affect ongoing inter-Korean economic cooperation, but said their impact would not be big enough to change the overall course. The ROK government urged its allies to cope with the DPRK's latest missile launches in a cool-headed manner, questioning the usefulness of adopting a heavy-handed approach to the state. The security policy team at the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said that the DPRK's move was politically motivated, thus requiring a political and diplomatic response.

Immediately, the United States and Japan condemned the launches. Though the Taepdong missile failure provided the North with information as it will help them diagnose what went wrong with the liquid-fueled rocket. Just hours after North Korea's provocative series of missile launches, Japan has reacted by banning the docking of the Mangyongbyon-92, a ferry that shuttles between Wonson in North Korea and Niigata, and which is the main direct link between the two countries. Additional Japanese sanctions -- including economic and financial sactions -- are in the pipeline. (Source: Asia Times.) (SITE NOTE: In 2004, Japan revised the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law to allow the government to halt trade and block cash remittances to North Korea - or to any other country, without a UN resolution. Japan also enacted a law that year that authorizes the government to ban the docking of North Korean ships, or ships that have visited North Korea, at Japanese ports. The Mangyongbyon-92 ferry had been widely considered to be among the most likely targets.)

Pyongyang has often warned that economic sanctions would be tantamount to a "declaration of war". To be sure, North Korea would suffer if Japan went that far. But the impact of the Japanese punishment would be limited unless other nations, especially China and South Korea, join in the sanctions.

Also on 5 Jul, the United Nations Security Council held an emergency, closed meeting to discuss the issue, after a request to do so by Japan's ambassador to the UN, Kenzo Oshima. The request followed an emergency meeting of Japan's national security council, convened by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. (Source: Korea Times.) Japan, backed by the US and Britain prepared a resolution demanding that nations withhold all funds, goods and technology that could be used for the DPRK's missile program. But Russia said it opposed sanctions and would prefer a statement instead of a resolution as the outcome of the meeting. (Reuters) Even before the missile tests, Japan and the US reportedly had already begun discussions on a prospective Security Council resolution harshly condemning such action. Foreign Minister Aso said recently that it would be "inevitable" for the Security Council to consider imposing sanctions on Pyongyang if a launch went ahead.

THIS MISSILE FIRING IS NOT A STRATEGIC ISSUE -- IT IS A POLITICAL ISSUE. The actual missile firings were really insignificant as there were givens before the missile launch. (1) The North will NOT attack Japan; (2) the US will NOT go to war over these "tests"; (3) China will veto any Article 7 military sanctions at the UN; and (4) South Korea will continue to render aid to the North as long as Roh is in office. The firings allowed the USFK to rub the missile reach in the face of the Roh administration to taunt them that the missile threat is real. The firings allowed the US and Japan to increase sanctions and further isolate the North. The firings allowed the North to intimidate both the South and Japan in showing they possessed missiles capable of reaching into their homelands -- without a provocative act.

The missile firings is a diplomatic GAME of one-upsmanship to apply leverage. The sanctions against the North that are hurting the North are already in place. The world will NOT sign off on a resolution that allows the UN to be drawn into a shooting war -- with all the other shooting wars going on at the time. Thus the only thing will be a "toothless" resolution that condemns the North's actions, but will NOT allow a military solution to the problem.

SITE NOTE: The following was my post on Lost Nomad blog over this incident:

Reason for firing: North had nothing to lose and everything to gain.

1) Threats of Sanctions: All talk without teeth. The US, Japan (backed by England) can't make internal sanctions work through UN. Russia and China will veto it. North knew this going into the fiasco.

The US is all bark without any bite. The US looks like a toothless tiger… This adds much to the prestige of the North's military-first regime who have just faced off against Japan and US — sort of — and won. The resolution called on all members to not support the North Korean missile programs.

(SITE NOTE: Some people took exception with this view, but everyone knew that the US would NOT go to war over this -- nor could it make its UN military action sanctions stick with the Chinese veto. These people view North Korea as the loser in this fiasco. However, all the US threats of expanded financial sanctions could already have been in place with the counterfeit money issue -- but the US does NOT want to implement them because it would shut down trade with China and Korea. In addition, the influx of aid -- though in smaller amounts -- from China, Russia and South Korea has not ceased. China continues to provide 50 percent of the food aid, while South Korea 30 percent. China continues to provide the North with oil, while the South has continued to commit BILLIONS of dollars in loans and grants. Sanctions will NOT topple the North Korean regime.)

For all the rhetoric about the self-imposed moratorium, the US had best realize that it did NOT deliver on the promised economic package that was tied to the moratorium. The 1999 moratorium — and 2002 moratorium extension — was tied to economic packages that were never realized. As there is no violation of any international treaty in testing missiles, the North was well within its rights to test these missiles — no matter how upsetting it was to its neighbors.

(SITE NOTE: The North realizes that the US will NOT negotiate in good faith. This is a given -- though some people seem to have blinders on to the real situation. Though we are not lovers of the North, we also see the situation for what it is.)

2) Threat to Japanese Reinforced: The Missile Defense System is still not developed and though the big talk the tests have only been 50 percent successful. Insiders think that it would be a 22 percent chance of "my bullet hits your bullet" scenario in a real life face off. 22 Jun the Japanese signed on for the SM-3 upgrades and will have the US PAC-3 in place by end of year…but the Japanese people need to know the fear that the North can hit them in their sleep. If I read the reports right, two missiles fired were short-range SCUD-Cs, while four were intermediate range Rodongs.

(SITE NOTE: In July 2006, the announcement that PAC-3 missiles would be set up in Okinawa and elsewhere in Japan was justified by this launch. The only thing that Japanese protestors could do was declare their cities "NO WAR ZONES" -- declaring themselves neutral -- a meaningless tactic as only the Japanese government can make this declaration.)

3) Threat to South Reinforced: Though there is the ongoing "you are my brother" routine between North and South, the idea that if the South stops giving the North blackmail money, it could turn the weapons on the South and again threaten to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire." Underlying all the b.s., the SCUD-C launches reinforce this point.

(SITE NOTE: Editiorial comment following my statement: "Pyongyang launched seven missiles on July 5. Six of them, except Taepodong-2, were either Scuds with a range of 300-500km, or Rodong, with 1,200-1,500km range. In particular, according to the South Korean military authorities, the Scud, along with the long-range guided projectiles dispatched near the truce line, is the most threatening missile to the South with its range that can reach anywhere in the South. North Korea is believed to have produced or possess more than 600 Scuds. In addition, the Scud can carry chemical warheads as well as conventional ones, empowering it to destroy South's major strategic camps or densely populated areas. So experts view that Pyongyang used mainly Scuds and Rodongs in the test to threaten South Korea with mid-and-long range missiles that can reach the South." (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Gen. B.B. Bell immediately latched upon this item and spoke to the US Congress of the threat. The Roh administration was outraged that the USFK would interpret this in this way -- calling it an over-reaction. But the point is that this launch became a POLITICAL tool of a "perceived threat.")

4) Test Results: Even with the failure, the North gained knowledge from the failure and can improve on the design. With no fear of reprisal, why not go ahead with the tests?

(SITE NOTE: Some say that following their current rate of progress it should be 160 years before they have an operational missile -- noting the poor quality of North Korean technology. However, we can also say their supposed poor technology also gained them nuclear weapons.

Taepodong-2 On 30 Jul, the Japanese government has concluded that the Taepodong-2 missile that North Korea test-fired July 5 exploded in midair within 1.5 kilometers of the launching pad, according to a Kyodo News report. Japan previously estimated the long-range missile flew about 400 kilometers into the sea between Korea and Japan, while South Korea's military said the Taepodong-2 travelled for about 7 minutes after liftoff before it plunged into the East Sea. Tokyo's conclusion that the test was a complete failure has been reached through an in-depth analysis of Japanese and U.S. intelligence reports, Kyodo News said. The midair explosion occurred about 40 seconds after the launch and debris fell almost vertically, the conclusion suggested, according to the report. It also indicated that a booster of the Taepodong-2 failed to separate properly due apparently to an unspecified malfunction that occurred when the booster was activated right after the launch. The findings could enable Japan to release a report on the incident, possibly in early August, the report said. (Source: Yonhap News.)

SCUD-ER Tested??? The USFK reported that the SCUD missiles "may have been" the new SCUD-ER and appeared to be more accurate than the SCUD-C. We don't know how they determined this, but it is interesting how the tone shifted from inaccurate missiles to "threats." Whether a fact or a political lie, the point is that it was made into a political tool to support political objectives. Suddenly the Commander of the USFK was testifying before Congress of the threat -- while the ROK was stumbling and mumbling that it was an "over-reaction." The missile test became a political tool.)

Thus far, the winner of this fiasco is North Korea, with the South Koreans still licking the boots of the North with hog-wash statements that their latest 140 million Nampo port development will be discussed "later." Nothing's changed — only the egg thrown by the North is still running down their faces of Japan and the US.

(SITE NOTE: "Despite the multiple missiles launch of North Korea, the ROK National Red Cross decided to keep sending fertilizer to North Korea. On July 6, 5,000 tons of fertilizer was loaded onto a ship, the Seamaster (a Korean cargo boat of 6,800 tons), which left Ulsan Port on the afternoon of July 7 for Haeju in the North. The fertilizer shipment was the fifteenth to go to the North and was the last share of the promised fertilizer aid of 200,000 tons. The fertilizer was supposed to be shipped to North Korea by June 13, but had been delayed because of the difficulty of finding a ship." (Source: Donga Ilbo.) The Korean government was criticized for its handling of North Korea's large-scale missile test. Critics point out that the government is overemphasizing "careful response" and obsessed with seeking "solutions only through dialogue." President Roh remained silent on the missile tests. Instead, ministerial meetings between the two countries were scheduled to proceed as normal. The strains on the US-Japan relations were obvious. President Roh said an additional 100,000 tons of fertilizer and 500,000 tons of rice would not be sent to the North "until the crisis was over" -- meaning when the heat dies down, we will go back to business as usual.

Some blog commentators took exception with my statement that the US and Japan had "egg ... running down their faces." Though the desired threats of military action under Article 7 of the UN Charter was eliminated, it was a still a minor victory for the US and Japan. The draft of the US-Japan was substituted by the Chinese draft and Resolution 1695 was approved UNANIMOUSLY -- without the Article 7 threat of military action. We admit that the resolution being voted on UNANIMOUSLY was a victory for the US and Japan -- and the resolution did ban member nations from supporting the North Korean missile program. In this case, any sale to Venezuela by the North would be a contravention of the resolution. Yes, it was a success for the US and Japan -- and as the US would never go to war over this issue to start off with, it met their POLITICAL goals.)

(SITE NOTE: The right to give local missile commanders permission to launch missiles in self-defense was granted as the normal procedures would not permit sufficient reaction time also broached this issue. The PAC-3/SM-3 missiles were simply defensive use -- not offensive. A preemptive strike would be an offensive action that would violate the peace constitution intent. The use of the preemptive strike as a "defensive measure" still would have to be debated in the National Assembly. In addition, the coalition government is also made up of a pacifist party which would object to this provision. Preemptive strike capability is an offensive measure and a highly divisive issue.)

The tenuous legal basis for this resolution was that the 2006 tests (as in 1998) "endangered civil aviation and shipping through its failure to provide adequate advance notice without prior notification to the countries in the region." Although the DPRK was allegedly not in compliance with its NPT commitments and IAEA obligations, its withdrawal from the NPT and IAEA have rendered these issues moot from a legal perspective. Linking the DPRK's nuclear weapons program to its missile program is a purely political act by the Security Council as there are no legal restraints on UN member states from developing missiles. The DPRK is legally required to issue notices-to-airmen (NOTAMs) as a signatory to Annex 11 of the Convention on International Civil which contains explicitly international requirements to coordinate such activities well in advance so as "to avoid hazards to civil aircraft and minimize interference with the normal operations of such aircraft." The coordination is specified in Annex 15 and entails establishing dissemination channels to whom DPRK NOTAMS are sent (and from whom the DPRK receives NOTAMS­these are not exactly the same). After the 1998 rocket launch (that like the July 5 firing, failed), the ICAO Council noted that objects fell into the ocean near Sanriku, Japan, and into international airspace through which passes airway A590, the East Asia-North American aviation trunkline over which 180 commercial flights pass per day. It called on all contracting states to comply with the Convention.

The customary practice of states that commandeer international ocean space for short-term military use it to issue warnings called notices-to-mariners (NOTMARs). Under "Navigation Warnings" found in Chapter V, Regulation 4 of the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, the DPRK is obliged to issue NOTMARS having been a member state since 1986. Its failure to do so when it fired a long-range rocket in 1998 led to IMO Resolution A.706(17) and an MSC Circular 893 issued 21 December 1998. Like the ICAO, these noted that objects from the 1998 DPRK rocket launch fell into waters near Japanese coast that contain major shipping lanes and fishing grounds. The Circular called on member governments to attach the greatest importance to safety of navigation and avoid taking any action which might adversely affect shipping engaged in international trade, and strictly comply with the recommendations contained in the foregoing resolution concerning navigational warnings so that operations do not endanger safety of navigation.

However, the NOTMAR requirement appears to be less stringent than with NOTAMs. The United States, for example, sometimes does not issue NOTMARs for the rockets that launch ostensibly secret satellites. Press reports have also mentioned that the DPRK did advise Russia of pending maritime danger zones which seems likely given the fact that some of the shorter-range missiles did splash down inside Russia's 200 mile exclusive economic zone (although outside the designated danger zones indicating that these rockets may not be very accurate!). (Source: Nautilus: Hayes.)

(SITE NOTE: The resolution: "3. Requires all Member States, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, to exercise vigilance and prevent missile and missile-related items, materials, goods and technology being transferred to DPRK's missile or WMD programmes; "4. Requires all Member States, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, to exercise vigilance and prevent the procurement of missiles or missile related-items, materials, goods and technology from the DPRK, and the transfer of any financial resources in relation to DPRK's missile or WMD programmes; (See Resolution.)

This is a major boost to the US attempt to place a financial stranglehold on the DPRK. A major portion of income comes from the sale of the SCUD-Cs overseas. The latest was revealed to be by President Chavez of Venezuela. Other buyers are Iran and a few African countries such as Oman.)

China and Russia, two veto-wielding Council members that strongly opposed earlier drafts of the resolution, both welcomed adoption of the amended measure. Ambassador Wang Guangya of China, North Korea's closest ally, expressed hope that the Council's unanimous action would encourage all parties to act calmly, and continue diplomatic efforts for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

South Korea which did not support any resolution that included the Article 7 provisions for sanctions, was satisfied with the outcome as "an appropriate measure." South Korea expected to resolve various issues on North Korea through dialogue. However, the impact to various programs from Kaesong to the tourism of Mount Kumgang needed to be assessed. The Unification ministry held emergency meetings to review the impacts. (Source: Yonhap News.)

As expected, the North ranted that it would continue its missile tests as its sovereign right. However, to do so would be counterproductive and it would not gain anything. However, it left in suspense what it actually will do.

Roh Silence Over Launches Criticized (July 2006) President Roh Moo-hyun maintained his silence over the row over the handling of the missile launches. He was asleep when the launches took place -- and the the responsible agencies did not opt to wake him up. The case was reported to President Roh at about 5:00 a.m. and the government announced it to the public at 10:10 a.m -- hours after the Japanese and other nations had issued rebukes over the launches. The ROK's belated announcement did not seem to be hard enough to many Korean conservatives. The ROK government stated the situation was "seriously disappointing." When compared with the announcement made by the U.S. and Japan, saying, "We will respond in a quick and decisive way", the ROK statement lacked resolve. (Source: Donga Ilbo.)

Cheong Wa Dae said the lack of response was rooted in a strategic decision. "President Roh's response to the issue is a result of a hard decision not to exaggerate the security tensions the North's missile launches have created in the eyes of the public," said Suh Choo-suk, the senior presidential secretary for security policy. "North Korea's intention is to inflate the issue, and a cool-headed and reasonable response can be a proper and effective way to thwart that intention." Another official close to the matter said the missile test "gave the U.S. a justification to further isolate North Korea, and Japan to pursue military expansion. It's only natural that we take a different position." The South Korean president's office on 9 Jul accused Japan of making a "fuss" over North Korean missile launches, suggesting Tokyo was contributing to the tense situation. "It is not any good to heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula or aggravate the South-North relations and neither does it help to solve the nuclear issue or the missile issue," said a statement from President Roh Moo-hyun's office. "There is no reason to fuss over this from the break of dawn like Japan, but every reason to do the opposite," the statement said.

It also turned out the ROK was notified by the US of the launches showing the ROK has NO surveillance capability of its own. The ROK military were completely blind to the SCUD and Rodong launches -- giving the impression to the Korean people that the defenders were totally unprepared. Immediately the conservative news papers started to condemn Roh for his handling of the affair.

In response, there was only continued silence from Roh. The opposition GNP launched strong criticism against President Roh on 10 Jul for his ``security insensibility" as Chong Wa Dae defended its coolheaded approach to the DPRK's missile tests on 5 July. But in order to quell criticism of that silence, the Blue House released a statement yesterday which said that the situation was not a national security emergency and that the DPRK wasn't targeting anyone with the missiles. The GNP reacted furiously. "The claim that the missiles were targeting no one is a de facto defense argument for the North," said Lee Jeong-hyeon, vice spokesman of the party. "While remaining silent about the provocation that threatens the people's lives, the Blue House decided to criticize the media and the opposition party instead."

Finally on 12 Jul -- a week after the launches -- Roh broke his silence by stating, "No matter how hard I try, it just eludes my understanding," He said he felt the need to speak about the crisis after a series of high-profile Japanse politicians mentioned the possibility of a "pre-emptive strike" against the DPRK. Mr. Roh said such talk from Japan might "aggravate the situation."

President Roh on 19 Jul expressed concern about intensifying international pressure on North Korea, which he said would "increase unnecessary tensions and confrontation." He also criticized "some of the others" who are raising regional tension levels with confrontational solutions for diffusing the North Korean missile crisis. "The others" are seen to indicate Japan, which has assumed a hard-line stance toward Pyongyang's missile launch earlier this month. "The president made it clear that South Korea will try to solve the North Korean problem through peaceful means and dialogue so as not to aggravate the situation in the aftermath of the U.N. Security Council resolution," said Song Min-soon, the president's top security aide. He added that the president vowed to seek measures for bringing North Korea back to the stalled six-party talks.

Then on 21 Jul the Blue House chief of staff, Lee Byung-wan, slammed Japan, calling its reaction to North Korea's missile launches "truly evil." He labeled Tokyo's talk of a pre-emptive attack on the North's missile facilities as a sign of "militarism and expansionism." Mr. Lee complained that Tokyo was leading the charge to impose international sanctions on Pyongyang.


The Other Non-existent WMDs (Wolverton) (Jun 2003)

North Claims Missile Firings to "Defend" South during Ministerial Meeting (July 2006) The decision to continue with the ministerial meeting between the ROK and DPRK despite the launches irked many -- including Uri Party members. This indicated that though the ROK would continue its rapprochement process at all costs. The ROK said it would "directly challenge" the DPRK about the tests at inter-Korean ministerial talks -- while critics stated that there was no need for the talks at all given the circumstances. Seoul said it would withhold promised aid to the DPRK until the missile crisis is over. However, that decision did not include a delay in the provision of the last promised fertilizer shipment to the DPRK that left port on 8 Jul bound for the DPRK with the last 20,000 tons of that assistance.

North Korea on 12 Jul demanded the South provide it with promised rice aid, apparently oblivious to the international diplomatic tensions it caused by test-firing several missiles only a week ago. The demand came at an inter-Korean ministerial meeting in Busan. North Korea's Senior Cabinet Counselor Kwon Ho-ung in his keynote speech hailed the impoverished country's "Songun" or military-first ideology, which he claimed was helping the South protect its security and benefited "a vast majority" of South Koreans. Kwon Ho-ung said the DPRK's military first policy "makes South Korea safe, and a large number of South Korean people benefit from it." Notable achievements of the Songun policy include Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and missile tests and mass starvation among its people for the sake of arming the military to the teeth. The JoongAng Ilbo reported that the DPRK's chief delegate to inter-Korean talks said that the ROK should be grateful for the DPRK's emphasis on military preparedness. This was the first time the North has named South Koreans among its beneficiaries. As such, it demanded rice and raw materials aid.

Opening the meeting, Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok said the DPRK's missile salvo was destabilizing, and urged Pyongyang to return to the six-nation nuclear talks as soon as possible to settle missile and nuclear-weapons issues through dialogue. Lee Jong-seok in his speech warned things could "get out of control" if the North launches any further missiles. Lee later gave short shrift to Kwon's claims for the Songun policy. "Has anyone in the South asked the North to protect our safety?" he demanded. "North Korea can help us protect our security when it stops launching missiles and dismantles its nuclear program". Lee stated that no aid will be provided until the situation is resolved. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

Aftermath of Missile "Tests": Five-way Talks, Sanctions, Test of New Scud

• DPRK Mobilizes It was reported that just prior to the UNSC vote, the North implemented a wartime mobilization of its military forces and reserves for an "imminent invasion" -- the first time in 13 years and was not broadcast by radio or TV. In March 1993, readiness was increased when North Korea pulled out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. (Source: Asia News.) ROK newspapers on 19 Jul reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il issued a special decree over the weekend ordering his troops to take emergency maneuvers and civilians to stay indoors because a war was imminent. However, the Chosun Ilbo reported that the Unification Ministry denied that the DPRK had ordered done so. The ministry said it had confirmed that Pyongyang only "heightened" its defense posture to alert level ahead of routine Seoul-Washington military exercises.
  
  
• Five-way Talks South Korea and the US on 18 Jul agreed that five-way talks without North Korea would be the best alternative to the six-way talks. South Korea's chief delegate to the nuclear negotiations, Chun Yung-woo, said, "We will not be discussing (at the five-way talks) how to pressure the North, but will discuss how to offer North Korea the incentives pledged in the Joint Statement." The concept of five-way talks first emerged last year, during another hiatus in the nuclear negotiations caused by North Korea's boycott since 2004, but shelved when North Korea returned to the talks. China has been cool to the idea, but as Chun stated it was better to have five-party talks rather none to keep the momentum of the six-party talks going. China is still concerned that the five-party framework will upset the North. The US hoped that China could be persuaded if it were to become chairman of the five-party talks.
  
  As of 19 Jul it was still not clear whether China had made a decision on whether or not to hold a "five-way" meeting as proposed by the United States and South Korea. China had not yet responded to the proposal formulated by South Korean envoy Chun Yung-woo and his US counterpart Christopher Hill who suggested a new format of talks that excludes Pyongyang. (SITE NOTE: In the end, China did not agree to the five-way talks.)
  
  
• Sanctions To Be Increased The United States may take measures to pressure North Korea should the communist regime continue to boycott six-nation nuclear talks. The frozen DPRK accounts of $24 million from the Banco Delta-Asia (BDA) is the main reason the North is boycotting the six-party talks. If proof surfaces of North Korea's suspected counterfeiting, Washington is most likely to expand its investigation into the so-called "rulers' account." The rulers' account, or ruling account, refers to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's main money channel. The funds are divided and deposited in various countries around the world. The total amount is estimated at around $6 billion. In addition, a visiting US Treasury Department official, Stuart Levey, described Washington's policy direction to ROK government policymakers during a ROK visit from 16-18 Jul that including reinstating sanctions lifted in 1999. The ROK officials said the US sanctions Mr. Levey mentioned had been lifted in 1999 by President Bill Clinton as US-DPRK tensions eased. They included trade restrictions and licensing requirements and strict limits on the amount of money US travelers to the DPRK could spend there.
  
  International curtailment of the North's money laundering is being curtailed. The North can no longer make money withdrawals from Vietnam and Mongolia. China recently has frozen the North's accounts in its Macao branch. (NOTE: It was rumored in Aug 2006 that the North had moved its money operations to Singapore.)
  
  JoongAng Ilbo on 20 Jul reported that for 10 months, Washington has enforced a systematic plan to clamp down on cash going into the DPRK. The measures are working, experts say. Nam Sung-wook, a DPRK expert at Korea University, estimated yesterday that the recent measures have led to a 40 percent decline in DPRK leader Kim Jong-il's income. Since the 1980s, Kim Jong-il has regularly collected money from four sources: forged bank notes, arms sales, drug trafficking and money coming from ethnic Koreans living in Japan who acquire money by operating legal gambling casinos there. Mr. Kim used the money to cement his hold on the DPRK elite, such as the military.
  
  Washington was concerned about various projects, referring to the inter-Korean industrial park in Gaeseong and the Mount Geumgang tour. Washington's apprehension over South Korea's various financial projects in North Korea was voiced. The United States said the projects could be abused in the communist regime's programs of weapons of mass destruction. The ROK, however, felt that it was operating within the boundary of the U.N. resolution and legally there were no problems in regard to doing business in Gaeseong. In fact, on 21 Jul the Finance Ministry said it was forging ahead with the Ministry of Planning and Budget on a special credit guarantee program to help companies operating in the Kaesong complex take out guaranteed loans of up to W10 billion ($9.5 million). "We know there have been a variety of controversies over the complex recently, but the government plans to provide a sufficient amount of seed money so that companies working there don't suffer difficulties in securing funds," a ministry official said. Though, the ROK unification minister conceded that the North's trade with other countries, including Japan, amounts to US$4 billion every year, large parts of which could also be said to be "funneled" to develop missiles -- his country would not stop its projects with the North. The government apparently opposes any economic sanctions by Japan or suspension of its trade with North Korea.
  
  Japan was also planning to impose its own economic sanctions on North Korea in early August, a news report said. Associated Press reported on 18 Jul that Japan had begun preparations to impose its own economic sanctions on the DPRK after the hardline regime rejected a UN Security Council resolution condemning its ballistic missile tests. Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said he had instructed officials to prepare measures to ban cash remittances to the DPRK and implement sanctions already called for in the UN resolution. The sanctions should be ready by Aug 2006. However, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said on 19 Jul that Japan would not rush to impose more sanctions on the DPRK, amid reports Tokyo may call for five-party talks on the sidelines of a regional security forum on the DPRK's nuclear ambitions. Koizumi told reporters Wednesday Japan will wait for a further response from the DPRK to a UN Security Council resolution and a Group of Eight summit statement condemning its missile test-launches. (SITE NOTE: The Japanese government had restricted remittances previously and left on mail remittances to the North -- which were monitored. The results showed a dramatic falling off of this source of funds. The other source has been the ships which allegedly smuggle drugs into Japan by dropping off the drugs off-shore prior to landing in Japan. It has yet to be seen if the Japanese will ban all North Korean ships from their waters -- though Japanese naval units have searched North Korean ships in their waters. The ban on the North Korean ferry visits may or not be lifted.)
  
  
• Rumors of a SCUD-ER Test JoongAng Ilbo reported on 18 Jul that some of the Scud missiles touched off by the DPRK among a seven-shot salvo on July 5 appear to be of a new type with longer range, a government official said yesterday. Citing intelligence from Seoul and Washington, the official said the radio signals from those missiles were different from those of a Scud-B or C model or a medium-range Rodong missile. The newer model, called the Scud ER, has an estimated range of 850 kilometers, 528 miles, and improved accuracy over its notoriously wayward predecessor. (SITE NOTE: As this news story did not appear in foreign news sources made this story suspect. The SCUD-ER development had been rumored in the past.)
  
  
• Rumors of Dissention between DPRK-PRC Joongang Ilbo reported on 18 Jul that a diplomatic source in Seoul said that last week, before the resolution was adopted, the DPRK's leader told a US visitor that Beijing was "not to be trusted." Kim Jong Il reportedly told the visitor that he doubted the PRC's willingness to help the DPRK at a "decisive moment." That muttering was probably connected to the visit of a senior delegation from Beijing to Pyongyang last week in a last-ditch effort to head off Security Council action, in which the PRC could have exercised its veto but instead voted for the resolution. (SITE NOTE: Again this story is suspect as it deals with the unsubstantiated report of a "US visitor" and listed as a "muttering".)
  
  Chosun Ilbo reported that Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok said the DPRK should abide by the UN resolution on its missile tests, and that the UN should be strict on how it applies the resolution. He said the UN resolution is about the DPRK's missiles and weapons of mass destruction, and does not prescribe economic sanctions. He said he thinks the council's weapons-related sanctions on Pyongyang should not adversely affect the on-going inter-Korean reconciliation projects, such as the Kaesong Industrial Park and tours to the DPRK's Mt. Kumgang. (SITE NOTE: In other words, the ROK was seeking to go about business-as-usual after the heat dies down. If economic sanctions are enforced by other nations, the entire Kumgang and Kaesong projects may collapse. Resolution 1695 "required all member states, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, to exercise vigilance and prevent missile and missile related items, materials, goods and technology being transferred to (the DPRK's) missile or WMD programs." This did not mention economic sanctions -- though it does cut off a major source of income being the DPRK sale of SCUDs internationally.)

IFANS: North Korea using Chinese technology and Iranian assistance on Missile Development (Aug 2006) North Korea has been working closely with Iran to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, possibly using Chinese technology, and is building large bases to prepare for their deployment, a South Korean state-run think tank has said. North Korea is also building new sites near the demilitarised zone with the South for short-range missiles and is deploying missiles with improved precision that can strike most of Japan, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) said in a report.

"The development of Taepodong-2 is conducted jointly with Iran, and it is possible China's technology is used in the development of the Taepodong-2 engine," said the IFANS report. The collaboration on the long-range Taepodong-2 is part of an international network, including Pakistan, that made it possible for the impoverished North to develop and deploy missiles despite scarce resources and limited testing, the study said. With more than 1,000 missiles of various ranges, North Korea has come to have the world's fourth-largest arsenal.

The Iranian connection in the North's missile programme dates back to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when Pyongyang tested and began shipping its Scud-type missiles to Iran, the report said. The Scud-based arsenal continues to be a threat because, through modification, the weapons "have achieved leaping progress in terms of precision, high mobility and quick firing rates", the IFANS report said.

The North's purchase of out-dated Soviet submarines in the 1990s, with launch and stabilisation systems intact, has raised concern that North Korea might be trying to arm them with tactical missiles, it continued. The North is building a missile command base 30 miles north of the demilitarised zone for as many as 30 mobile launch pads for the Scud-type Hwasong missiles that can hit military and industrial targets deep in the South, IFANS said. (Source: Scotsman.)

North Seeking Missile Purchasers: Pakistan (Aug 2006) The North suffering from sanctions may seek sales of its missiles despite the UN resolution that bars member states from aiding the North's missile program -- including sales. Some experts feel the tests were to convince buyers of the accuracy -- as the SCUD and Nodong missiles all landed within the 30 km by 40 km target area. This offsets claims that the SCUDs were inaccurate weapons. Some experts guess that one purchaser could be Pakistan. Pakistan is the competitor of India. International political scientists are assaying that in order for the United States to contain China, the U.S. is pursuing a strategy of augmenting Japan's military power in Northeast Asia and India's military power in Southwest Asia. Beijing is aware of this U.S. strategy toward China, and therefore it is known to be continuing its friendly relations with North Korea to keep Japan in check in Northeast Asia, and likewise cooperative relations with Pakistan to keep India in check in Southwest Asia. Even if there are purchasers, such as Pakistan or other Middle East countries, it does not mean that missiles can be directly exported. The stumbling block is the performance of the North Korean missiles. If the tests were carried out for the sale of missiles, then another crisis looms: That is, the realization of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Most missiles are carried by ship to the Middle East for sale. There is a growing danger that the PSI will become a reality on the Korean peninsula. (Source: "North Korea's Missile Launches and South Korea's Response" by Moo-jin Yang.)


Can You Hear Me Now? (Heller) (Mar 2003)

IFANS: N Korea constructing new missile bases targeting Japan (Aug 2006) On 4 Aug Japan Today reported that North Korea has been constructing new underground missile bases and silos along its east coast to deploy intermediate-range missiles targeting Japan, according to a report compiled by South Korea's state-funded research institute. "The new bases clustered along the east coastal line, in particular, are short-and medium-range missile bases aiming at Japan and U.S. military installations" on the Japanese archipelago, Yonhap News Agency quoted the report by the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) as saying. About 200 Rodong missiles with ranges of up to 2,200 kilometers and 50 SSN-6 missiles with ranges of 2,500-4,000 km are already deployed in the new bases, the report was quoted as saying. (Source: Crisscross News.)

(SITE NOTE: The SSN-6 are sea-launched weapons that have been converted for use on land. This design was refined into the first successful Soviet subarine-launched ballistic missile with MIRV warhead. This was designated as R-27U (also known as RSM-25), which was designed in 1971-72 and tested in 1972-74. This new missile could carry either three individual warheads or a single heavier warhead.

There were also concerns that submarines were bought from Soviets that had the guidance and launch platforms intact that could be converted for SSN-6 use. As of 2006, none of the subs have been converted.

Some experts are putting out analyses that the launching pad at Anbyeon county in Kangwon province does not point toward Japan. The prediction of the missile's direction, distance, and ultimate ending point can be known through the acute angle of the launching pad. Also, experts have said that the U.S. and Japan know this angle already, but they have not made it clear. In fact, the DPRK direction, distance, and ultimate ending point of the DPRK missiles are far from what the U.S. and Japan have asserted them to be. (Source: "North Korea's Missile Launches and South Korea's Response" by Moo-jin Yang.)

Some 300 members of a faction of the Korean Federation of University Student Councils on on 2 Aug accused the U.S. of misleading the world with claims that North Korea heightened tensions in a peaceful Northeast Asia with its July 5 missile tests. The group, calling itself "an advance team" of the Korean Young Students Alliance to Unify the Fatherland, and made up primarily of KFUSC members, held a launch ceremony and press conference near Gwanghwamun at 10 a.m. "North Korea's missile launches are self-defense measures to protect the country from U.S. schemes to start a war on the peninsula and do not violate any international law," they said. (SITE NOTE: As the foreign minister said when the North mouthed this same sentiment at the Inter-ministerial meeting at Jeju-do after the launches -- "Who asked you to defend us?")

Scurrilous guidelines for the "Seoul National University advance team" posted on the KFUSC website include comments hailing the missile tests. "The U.S. deemed North Korea's launch of a Taepodong 2 missile a failure, but the truth is that the North deliberately shortened the range" of the long-range rocket, which dropped into the sea like a stone 42 seconds after launch. "The North demonstrated its capability to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles without having to fly one 6,000 km near U.S. territory." (SITE NOTE: So much for academic reasoning of Korean college kids.) The advance team then broke up into sub-groups at noon to hand out leaflets depicting U.S. President George W. Bush with blood on his face, targeting movie theaters that showed the blockbuster movie "The Host." "The U.S. had only itself to blame when North Korea test-fired the missiles," the leaflet says. It claims North Korea has "world-class" missile technology and urges the two Koreas to work together in technology development "to join the ranks of global powers."

Members also ripped up the U.S. flag with 300 police looking on. "We concluded they had bought an imitation, not the real one, and did not stop them to avoid unnecessary conflict," a police officer said. (SITE NOTE: An imitation US flag is still a US flag. The ROK law states that even a representation of the flag falls under the statute. For example, if the red white and blue stripes are not 13 in number and the stars are painted say as skulls, then it cannot be deemed a representation.) (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

Missiles with Nuclear Warheads: Future North Korean Export (Aug 2006) According to an article in Asia Times on 17 Aug titled Missiles and madness by Richard M Bennett, an international intelligence and security analyst, North Korea has a massive missile arsenal that may end up as an export item complete nuclear warheads.

The article states that despite its huge conventional military power, everyone knows that it will NOT attack the South as it would be suicide for its million man army. "Pyongyang's forces may be sufficient to achieve some success on the ground in the first week, but after that their limited logistic support combined with ferocious US-led air strikes would have so degraded the offensive capability of the main combat units as to lead to only one conclusion: another military disaster. This time, and more important, it is highly unlikely that there would be a repeat of the Korean War intervention by hundreds of thousands of seasoned Chinese troops pouring across the Yalu River to rescue the North Korean regime from the consequences of its own stupidity." North Korea's conventional armed forces are truly impressive on paper, but significantly probably still lack the logistic support, technological infrastructure and mobility that would make them as effective in war as their sheer weight of numbers might otherwise suggest.

In addition, it will NOT use the nuclear weapons against the South -- or Japan -- as it would be an act of state suicide. The US response would undoubtedly be to turn the whole of North Korea into a radioactive wasteland for generations to come.

The biggest worry is the weapons of mass destruction that the North Korea can produce and SELL to waiting markets in the Middle East. The North produces about 100 missiles a year.


Taepodong I & II

Bennet stated, "It began to make ballistic missiles around 1981, with copies of Russian Scuds purchased originally from Egypt. These became operational as the Hwasong 5 in 1984. There are now 900-1,000 Hwasong-5/6 and Nodong 1/Rodong 1 (improved Scud) and more than 100 medium-range Taepodong 1/Nodong 2 ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads deployed in underground silos or hidden in caves. Within the next couple of years, development of the Taepodong 2/Nodong 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles will be completed and North Korea will gain a genuine strategic deterrent with a range of at least 8,000km, though some observers have suggested as much as 12,000km. This missile was test-fired in July, and despite media speculation that the flight was aborted after just 42 seconds, it now seems likely that it flew for seven minutes and was a significant technical success. (SITE NOTE: This is the first report we have read that the flight lasted longer than 42 seconds. The Japanese made a full-blown study of the Taepodong-2 "test" launch in July 2006 and gloated over this fact of its ill-fated launch.)

He continued, "With a failing economy to support, the temptation must be strong for the Pyongyang regime to use its advanced technology to underpin its survival. ... While such arms are obviously considered vital for defense or even a preemptive strike, the major overriding reason has been financial: such technology is available for export to the highest bidder. Such hard-currency transactions help keep North Korea afloat and the regime in power."

What is bothersome to the US is the buyers of North Korean technology. Bennet stated, "Over the past 20 years or so North Korea has earned substantial revenue from the sale of missiles, and the relevant technology, to a number of states high on Washington's hit-list. Among these are the Nodong to Pakistan as the Ghauri and to Iran as the Shehab 3, while both Syria and Libya received Hwasong-5. It is reported that missile parts and technology have also been exported to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam."

He added, "With such a willing market for its missile technology and the financial advantages gained from the exportation of such weapons, why not offer the secrets of the nuclear bomb as well? With the looming confrontation with the West over Iran's own nuclear program and an economy rich in petrodollars, Tehran would be a prime market for Pyongyang's weapons know-how. Tehran is North Korea's closest ally in the Middle East. This would be the ultimate nightmare scenario for Washington, a determined Iranian enemy secure behind the unexpected deployment of an operational long-range missile system armed with a nuclear warhead."

He went on, "It appears certain that North Korea's nuclear-weapons program has been largely funded by the sale of missiles and other conventional arms to countries around the world. North Korea is believed to have some 120 nuclear weapons, including a small number of hydrogen bombs to go with its growing arsenal of operational long-range ballistic missiles. It has built a considerable capability since the early 1960s with nuclear-research facilities at Yongbyon, Taechon, Pyongyang and Kumho. Significantly for North Korea, it is fortunate to have its own uranium mines, with more than 4 million tonnes of exploitable high-quality uranium." These nuclear weapons -- though not thrown on the table -- is a given by all parties.

He speculated on the potential Chemical and Biological threats. "An advanced chemical and biological warfare program has produced a considerable number of chemical warheads for battlefield missiles, aircraft bombs and artillery shells. These are known to include modern nerve agents. It is believed that a serious attempt has also been made to weaponize anthrax and that a small number of warheads may have been deployed."

More Sanctions (Aug 2006) On 10 Aug Yonhap News reported that the US was considering additional punitive sanctions against North Korea according to visiting U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher "We are going to discuss with the regional leaders here and determine what is appropriate (as a sanction) but we'll make sure that North Korea realizes that if they do launch missiles (again) they will be shot down by the U.S.," Rep. Dana Rohrabacher told Yonhap News Agency in an interview.

The key words were that the US will "shoot down" future missiles -- meaning they will test the joing Missile Defense System (MDS). We are not certain if the USFJ and JSDF have been advised of this Congressional plan. In a related story in the Japan Times, the Japanese confirmed that though the Taepodong-2 missile was inaccurate, the six other missiles were accurate in hitting targets within a 30 mile by 40 mile target area.


Isolation (Plante) (Feb 2005)

New Sanctions Expected (Sep 2006) Ranking South Korean officials in Washington told the Yonhap News Agency that the Bush administration was expected to announce a package of economic sanctions on the North after the planned summit between U.S. President George W. Bush and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun on Sept. 14 in the U.S. capital. However, the new sanctions are expected to center on sales of missiles and weapons of mass destruction following the UN sanctions. The US is looking at reimposing the economic sanctions the US lifted in 1995 and 2000 including a travel ban, a broad trade ban and restrictions on investment and remittances in response to North Korea's missile test on July 5. (Source: Korea Times.)

The US announced that the attempt to block the sale of Missiles from North Korea has been pushed forward by the UN sanctions on the sale of DPRK missiles. The only remaining countries relying on North Korean sales are Syria and Iran. Other countries have said they will no longer purchase weapons from the North.

Australia and Japan Institute Sanctions The International Herald Tribune on 19 Sep reported that Australia and Japan imposed new financial sanctions on the DPRK on 19 Sep, as the US dismissed appeals from the PRC and the ROK for a softer approach and rallied more international pressure on the DPRK to return to nuclear disarmament talks or face a slow wilting of its finances. The initial impact of the actions announced Tuesday will be limited because Australia and Japan have little trade with the DPRK, experts said. But the sanctions were another clear sign that Washington and its allies are intent on tightening a financial noose around the DPRK regime, whose conduits of hard currency from abroad the Bush administration is determined to squeeze.

China attacked Australia and Japan's sanctions. The Australian on 20 Sep reported that the PRC had begun backing away from the tough stance it took when it joined the UN resolution in July condemning the DPRK's missile launches and nuclear power bid. The PRC slammed Australia and Japan on 19 Sep for the financial sanctions they imposed on the DPRK. Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said the sanctions were consistent with Australia's "strong stand against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction". The sanctions, co-ordinated between Canberra and Tokyo, target about a dozen DPRK trading companies that Australia and Japan believe are involved in Pyongyang's push for nuclear weapons. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang condemned the sanctions as escalating the standoff. "All parties should focus on how to relax the situation," he said.

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2007

DPRK Developed Sub-mounted Missile -- May Hide Missiles in Cargo Ships (Feb 2007) The Congressional Research Service, the research unit of the U.S. Congress, said in a recent report that North Korea has developed or already deployed a submarine- or ship-mounted ballistic missile system with a range of at least 2,500 kilometers. According to the report, in the 1990s Pyongyang imported from Russia Soviet-era R-27(SS-N-6) submarine-mounted missiles and improved them. The report pointed to the possibility that Russian technicians assisted the North with the project. North Korea acquired the missile technology from scrap Russian submarines, the report said. Pyongyang has improved the technology to build a missile with a range of at least 2,500km capable of being mounted on Romeo-class submarines and cargo ships, according to the report. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.) (SEE IFANS: N Korea constructing new missile bases targeting Japan (Aug 2006)for other report of 50 DPRK SSN-6 missiles converted to land use.)

The North has also transformed ordinary cargo ships to launch the missiles, the report said. South Korean military authorities and experts said on 7 Feb that while the deployment of a submarine-carried missile is unlikely, but it would be possible for Pyongyang to use a cargo ship as a launch pad. North Korea's new ballistic missiles with a range of 2,500km to 4,000km are based on the decommissioned Soviet R-27 sub-launched missile. The existence of the North Korean ballistic missiles was brought to light by the Chosun Ilbo in Sept. 2003.

An intelligence source said that ballistic missiles must be launched vertically from a submarine and that North Korea’s main 1,475-ton Romeo-level submarine is too small to launch the new 12-meter missile. It has not been confirmed if North Korea has developed a new, larger submarine to launch the missile, the source said.

Missiles can be carried in a launch pad that looks like an ordinary container and be fired by simply raising the container upright, experts say. A cargo ship would be excellent way to conceal a missile as the enemy would likely ignore it as a simple commercial vessel. Intelligence authorities note that the new North Korean 12-meter ballistic missiles would fit inside a standard container. The CRS report also said that using a commercial cargo ship would be the easiest way for North Korea to carry missiles. (Source: Chosun Ilbo.)

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May 2007

ROK Gov't Confirms North Fires Short Range Missiles into East Sea (May 2007) South Korea has confirmed that North Korea fired short-range missiles toward the East Sea. South Korea's Foreign Ministry said the 25 May missile launches were part of an annual military exercise. The ministry pointed out that South Korea also holds routine firings of short-range missiles four times a year. The government said that the missiles are not directly related to the North’s development of new missiles and will not affect the inter-Korean relations and the six-party talks, aimed at resolving North Korea’s nuclear weapons problems.

The missiles were fired from the communist country's east coast, probably in South Hamgyong Province, into the sea. The missiles are believed to be surface-to-ship, according to several reports, possibly North Korea’s response to South Korea’s launch of its first Aegis ballistic missile system-equipped destroyer at a shipyard. Seoul became the fifth country armed with the technology, which will enhance its ability to locate, track and shoot down North Korean aircraft and missiles.

Japan's public broadcaster, NHK, reported that the missiles were shorter-range, and were not North Korea's existing Rodong or Taepodong I ballistic missiles, adding that the missiles were surface-to-ship types. (Source: Korea Times.)

North fires two missiles into West Sea (Jun 2007) North Korea is believed to have test-fired two short-range missiles off its western coast on 7 Jun, South Korean intelligence officials said, as the communist country has been under increasing pressure to keep its promise of dismantling its nuclear weapons program. Both missiles are believed to have landed in the North's territorial waters, the official said, adding the rockets that the communist country fired were either a surface-to-ship type or a ship-to-ship type, both with a range of less than 100 km. The United States immediately condemned the DPRK's action, but the ROK has played down the significance of the launch. An official at RO Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the DPRK fired short-range missiles as part of its routine military exercises.

North fires missile into East Sea -- False Alarm (Jun 2007) Yonhap News reported on 19 Jun that the DPRK test-launched a missile again as international efforts to end the nation's nuclear program began showing signs of progress. "North Korea fired a short-range missile in what appeared to be part of a military drill," a Japanese Defense Ministry official was quoted as saying. RO Korean defense officials virtually confirmed the DPRK's missile test. "We don't deny that North Korea fired a missile," Army Col. Ha Doo-chul, spokesman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Yonhap News Agency. "If it did, we regard it as a routine exercise."

It was believed the missile was a Seersucker surface-to-ship missile with a range of 100 to 120 km, an improved version of the Silkworm surface-to-ship missile, but the South Korean military hasn't ruled out the possibility that it could have been a surface-to-surface KN-02 with a similar range to the Seersucker. The missile was fired from a missile base in Dancheon, South Hamgyong Province.

Later on 23 Jun it was reported that contrary to earlier suspicions, it was confirmed that North Korea did not in fact test-fire a short-range missile into the sea off its east coast on June 19, South Korea's defense ministry said. "After receiving an initial intelligence report that North Korea had fired a missile, we carefully analyze it," an official at the ministry said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the topic. "But after analyzing various information, we reached the final conclusion that North Korea didn't fire a short-range missile," the official said.

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June 2007

N.Korea 'Test-Fired Short-Range Missile Again' (Jun 2007) On 28 Jun it was reported that North Korea test-fired a short-range surface-to-ship missile with a range of 100 km into the East Sea on the morning of 27 Jun. Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are closely looking at the evidence to verify the report. A government source said North Korea fired the missile from the northeast coast in South Hamgyeong Province into the East Sea at 11:30 a.m. 27 Jun, following the launch of a missile from a missile base in Dancheon into the East Sea on May 25 and two missiles into the West Sea on June 7. If the launch is confirmed, the North has fired missiles on three occasions this year. The government source described the launch as part of routine military exercises in preparation for the summer drills.

N. Korea testing newly developed missiles: Defense Ministry (Jun 2007) North Korea's recent missile launches are aimed at testing brand-new missiles, the Defense Ministry said on 28 Jun. "The missiles that North Korea recently test-fired into the East Sea and the West Sea are ground-to-ground and ground-to-ship missiles with a range of around 100 kilometers," the ministry said in a press release. "They have not been deployed, as they are still in the development stage." The assessment came a day after the North reportedly launched three short-range ballistic missiles into the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

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Washington warns against missile test (Jun 2007) The United States yesterday issued a warning about North Korea's reported missile test that occurred before U.N. inspectors arrived on 28 Jun at the North Korea's main reactor site to prepare for its shutdown. "The United States is deeply troubled that North Korea has decided to launch these missiles during a delicate time in the six-party talks," National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in a statement.

North Korea test-fired at least one short-range missile into the East Sea on 27 Jun, making it the communist state's third missile test this year. The repetitive missile launches by the North has dampened the hopeful atmosphere among the six-party talks members as North Korea gets ready to shut down its main nuclear reactor in Yongbyon in July. The U.S. government expects North Korea "to refrain from conducting further provocative ballistic missile launches," Johndroe said. He said the missile launches violated a U.N. Security Council resolution banning North Korea from engaging in all ballistic missile activities, urging Pyongyang to focus on nuclear disarmament.

But both the governments of South Korea and the United States also played down the motive behind North Korea's missile launch, with Seoul sources describing it as a "routine exercise." Pentagon spokesman Chito Peppler also emphasized they were "short-range missiles." "We believe that this was a routine exercise not intended to be provocative." North Korea test-fired one short-range missile on May