The following article is from the Washington Times article dated Sept 17, 2002 dealing with the South Korean White Paper which is released annually. In a recent change, the white paper no longer calls North Korea the "main enemy" for political reasons -- though everyone knows that it is... This is the same story as in the past so the status remains unchanged. But this is the reason that George Bush refuses to remove North Korea from his "hit list" as one of the "axis of evil." Their use of chemical weapons is a solid part of the North Korean strategy if they were to attack the South.

North Korea amasses chemical weapons

By Jong-Heon Lee
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

SEOUL — North Korea has a stockpile of 2,500 to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons and is believed to be capable of producing 1 ton of biological weapons annually, South Korea's Defense Ministry said yesterday.

The communist state's stockpile of chemical weapons consists of 17 different types that can be used to dispense nerve gases, the ministry said in a report presented to the National Assembly. North Korea can produce about 4,500 tons of chemical weapons every year, it said.

Pyongyang's army also has biological weapons involving 13 different lethal germs and viruses, the ministry said. Mike Moody, president of the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute in Washington, said the South Korean estimates represented "a significant amount" of chemical weapons.

By comparison, Russia had 40,000 tons of chemical weapons when it was forced to declare the numbers by the Chemical Weapons Convention Treaty. The United States had 30,000 tons before it began to dismantle its reserves.

Mr. Moody noted that the production of an agent does not always translate into an effective chemical or biological weapon. Its effectiveness depends on several factors, including the quality of production, means of dispersal and intended target.

North Korea signed the Biological Weapons Convention in 1987 but has been called a leading violator of the international treaty that bans germ warfare.

Under its ruling principle of "army-first politics," North Korea has produced and deployed long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States and has sold some missiles to Iran and Syria. Experts say the missiles can be fitted with biochemical warheads.

To cope with attacks from the North, South Korean military authorities have bought vaccines capable of inoculating 10,000 soldiers against anthrax, officials said.

Last month, South Korea renounced the use of biological weapons "under any circumstances," despite criticism that the decision was "premature" as long as North Korea poses a military threat.

"The decision was aimed at putting pressure on North Korea to take a reciprocal measure against biochemical weapons," a senior official said on the condition of anonymity. But South Korea has retained the right to use chemical weapons as a deterrent against the North, the official said.

John Bolton, the U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, echoed the concerns about North Korea's biological and chemical warfare capabilities during a recent visit to Seoul.

"In regard to chemical weapons, there is little doubt that North Korea has an active program," he said in a speech last month. "The U.S. government believes that North Korea has one of the most robust offensive bioweapons programs on Earth."

The United States believes North Korea has also diverted enough plutonium to make one or two nuclear bombs before agreeing to freeze production in 1994. Pyongyang has rejected international calls for inspectors to be allowed into its nuclear facilities to verify that weapons development has halted.

South Korean Foreign Minister Choi Sung-hong urged North Korea last week to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities, saying "the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction" was a key challenge in the peace process between the two Koreas.

"It is now essential that the full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency begin without further delay for the implementation of safeguards requirements" of the 1994 nuclear accord, he said in an address on Friday to the U.N. General Assembly.

•Staff writer Maria Tsigas contributed to this report in Washington.

(See North Korean Strategy: The USFK View for the USFK strategy and positions in Korea.)

Bacteriological Weapons: A Washington Times article dated Sept 17, 2002 stated that the Koreans had procured innoculations for anthrax for only 10,000 of their 650,000-strong military force. This miniscule number is in the face of U.S. intelligence information that states that North Korea is among four nations that is believed to have unauthorized samples of smallpox; the others are Russia, Iraq and France. This was also stated in testimony before the Korean National Assembly by the Ministry of Defense.

This small number underlines how seriously the Koreans take the anthrax threat -- as opposed to the USFK stance. Anthrax is a powerful weapon: It kills 30 percent of its victims, is highly contagious and has no known treatment. Why would the Korea treat this anthrax threat so lightly?

The first reason is that the a biological attack by the North can easily backfire and decimate the North itself -- and North Korea knows this. Unlike firing the virus into another country via a missile, the use on the peninsula would soon spread to engulf all who are unprotected -- soldier and civilian on both sides of the DMZ. It would be a foolish weapon to use. The second reason is that any person using these types of weapons against their "brother Koreans" would be branded throughout history as a "barbaric monster" -- and what Korean leader wishes that for his posterity.

How low a priority this threat was is shown by the Koreans opening a special agency for bacteriological investigations in 2001 only AFTER the US anthrax scare. Thus it is very easy for the South Koreans to issue a statement stating they would NEVER use such weapons -- because they won't. For additional information on biological/bacteriological weapons in Korea, see Bio-terrorism Suddenly a Concern in Korea (2001) .

Nuclear Weapons: As to a nuclear weapon trump card by the North would used to threaten -- NOT South Korea -- but Japan. Japan knows this full well and views the nuclear weapon issue a "national defense" issue, rather that an international issue. As such Japan is very eager not to have this latest row over North Korea's admitting to having a nuclear program escalate further. North Korea even hinted that its voluntary halting of it ICBM program may again be resumed.

Monty Wolverton. Wolvertoons

For years, there have been rumors of a secret uranium-enrichment facility, but the discovery that North Korea was trying to acquire the high-strength aluminum to be used in gas centrifuges was described as the first hard evidence that the country had an active nuclear program. Hard details, including where the aluminum originated or how much North Korea acquired was not revealed by the U.S. government. The location of the uranium-enrichment facility which had "significant construction activity" was not revealed. Speculation have centered on three locations, including a suspected underground facility in Changang province known as Hagap. Then a North Korean defector, Kim Duk-hong, said that Pyongyang had already developed nuclear weapons using uranium, instead of plutonium, in an interview with a Japanese weekly magazine in April 1999. Then in 1999, The ROK Defense Ministry learnt of North Korea's attempt to import uranium-enhancing equipment from abroad. Though the info was rudimentary, the pieces were starting to fall into place.

Chronology of Nuclear Events in North Korea:

Mid-1960s: North Korea sets up atomic energy research complex in Yongbyon North of Pyongyang.

1965: Soviet IRT-2M research reactor assembled.

Mid-1970s: North Korea adds second nuclear reactor.

1985: United States says it has evidence North Korea is building a secret nuclear reactor near Yongbyon.

1985: North signs the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but refuses to sign safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

Dec 1991: North and South Korea adopt declaration on denuclearization of Korean peninsula.

Jan 1992: North Korea signs nuclear safeguard agreement.

Feb 1993: North rejects IAEA request for special inspections of two suspected nuclear fuel storage sites at Yongbyon

March 1993: North threatens to withdraw from NPT.

May 1993: North test-fires missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to targets within a 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) radius.

June 1993: North agrees to suspend its threatened NPT withdrawal during high-level US-North Korean talks.

June 1993: US president Bill Clinton, visiting Seoul, warns that North Korea will be annihilated if it uses nuclear weapons.

Dec 1993: North softens stand and agrees to talks with IAEA.

July 1994: North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung dies, prompting cancellation of scheduled summit with South leader Kim Young-Sam.

Oct 1994: North Korea and the United States sign a deal in Geneva in which Pyongyang agrees to freeze its suspect nuclear weapons programme in return for the construction of two light-water nuclear reactors.

Jan 1995: US eases economic sanctions on North Korea.

Apr 1997: The United States says that by 1994 North Korea had produced enough plutonium for "at least one nuclear device". This is the first time the United States has said North Korea has plutonium.

Dec 1999: Deal signed between both Koreas and US-led international consortium to build two "safe" nuclear reactors in North Korea.

July 2000: North Korea threatens to restart nuclear development program in protest to delays in nuclear plant construction.

Apr 2001: IAEA says North Korea "probably has one or two nuclear bombs" although it has been unable to carry out inspections since 1994.

Aug 2002: Concrete-pouring ceremony in North Korea to build two light-water nuclear reactors.

Oct 2002: North Korea admits in meetings with US special envoy James Kelly that it has a programme to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.

On 17 October 2002, Washington made the announcement that North Korea had secretly been pursuing a nuclear weapons program despite signing a nuclear non-proliferation treaty during the Clinton Administration in 1994. North Korea supposedly made the "surprising" public admittance -- after it was confronted with the facts. During the U.S. press conference a senior official said that the admission came after Kelly and the team presented evidence to the North Koreans that they were in violation of the Agreed Framework, the 1994 deal to end its nuclear program. North Korea reacted negatively to the three-day visit to Pyongyang by Kelly in October. They accused Kelly of being arrogant and high handed. However, President Bush has made no attempt to conceal his distaste for North Korea and its leader Kim Jong-Il, but nevertheless offered to talk at ``any time, any place,'' about a host of US concerns -- including Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs, its conventional military threat, and appalling human rights record.

N. Korea Admits Having Secret Nuclear Arms Stunned U.S. Ponders Next Steps

By Peter Slevin and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, October 17, 2002; Page A01

The North Korean government has acknowledged for the first time that it has been secretly developing nuclear weapons for years in violation of international agreements -- and that it possesses "more powerful" weapons, as well -- Bush administration officials said last night.

The North Koreans, who confirmed the project when challenged by visiting U.S. diplomats earlier this month, said the existence of the program nullifies a 1994 deal with the United States to halt their nuclear weapons program in return for foreign help. One senior U.S. official said the new weapons project is a "very serious material breach" of the accord.

The Bush administration, stunned by the admission, dispatched envoys to the region yesterday to consult with allies and called on North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to halt the weapons project. The administration also has begun consultations with Congress about what to do next.

"The United States is calling on North Korea to comply with all of its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and to eliminate its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable manner," a U.S. official said. "What we seek is a peaceful resolution of this situation."

The revelation from the isolated Stalinist country presents the Bush administration with a serious, unanticipated foreign policy challenge as officials prepare to confront Iraqi President Saddam Hussein over his refusal to surrender weapons of mass destruction. Meanwhile, thousands of U.S. troops remain deployed in an unstable Afghanistan and terrorist attacks have spiked in recent weeks from Yemen to Indonesia.

U.S. officials and commentators offered differing assessments last night of the implications of North Korea's announcement, with some considering it a belligerent act deserving of a strong response, and others saying it could be a bid by North Korea to create an opening to the United States.

"This is going to require a reassessment of our commitments to North Korea," said Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.), chairman of the Senate intelligence committee. "It's a very serious development if a country we had thought had entered into a serious and credible negotiation to retreat from a nuclear program in exchange for generous assistance" has violated that agreement.

President Bush counts North Korea as a member of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and Iran. Yet the revelation of the nuclear program comes amid a string of surprisingly conciliatory moves by Kim, long criticized for peddling dangerous weapons and oppressing an impoverished population. In recent weeks, the Pyongyang government apologized for a naval battle with South Korea in the Yellow Sea and for the abduction of Japanese citizens in the 1970s.

A U.S. delegation headed by Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly presented detailed evidence of a covert nuclear weapons program during an Oct. 3-5 trip, U.S. officials said. The North Koreans called the allegations "fabrications," but then a day later, a more senior official, Deputy Foreign Minister Kang Sok Joo, confirmed Kelly's charges. He said the North Koreans met through the night before deciding to reveal that the project had been underway for several years. He also said his government had developed other, more powerful weapons.

Kang offered no apologies. He was "assertive, aggressive about it," a U.S. official said. The administration says it does not know the full extent of North Korea's nuclear capabilities, and experts are uncertain what Kang meant when he referred to more powerful weapons. Last night, they said they assume he meant weapons of mass destruction, which typically include biological and chemical weapons.

North Korea's new nuclear project relies on highly enriched uranium, a switch from an earlier plutonium-based program that Pyongyang agreed to halt in the groundbreaking 1994 Agreed Framework. U.S. officials would not answer when asked whether the highly enriched uranium had yet been turned into a weapon.

The CIA's National Intelligence Estimate, released in December, reported that North Korea had likely produced one or two plutonium-based nuclear weapons by the mid-1990s.

Administration officials have struggled with the North Korean policy since Bush took office, with some officials advocating a much more demanding approach than the engagement policy of the Clinton administration and others urging continued diplomatic flexibility.

The disclosure has not ended that debate, said one high-ranking official, who reported that some administration leaders believe "we should go to war tomorrow." He added, however, that Bush has been "very calm, cool and collected. He doesn't need another crisis."

The North Korean disclosure was "a jaw-dropper," said the official. It revealed a worrisome determination to build a nuclear device, but it also left open the possibility that Kim, who has been repairing relations with foreign rivals, unveiled the project as a way of coming clean.

The admission "represented a candor on the part of North Korean officials that we are unaccustomed to," the official said. "It has promise. It has opportunity. It has dangers."

Immediately, the U.S.suspended its offer to engage North Korea -- a pledge of an economic and political opening in return for reductions in North Korea's military posture and policies of weapons proliferation, along with an improvement in humanitarian conditions.

"In light of our concerns about the nuclear weapons program, we could not pursue that approach," a U.S. official said during the conference call. "Everyone in the region has a stake in this issue, and no peaceful nation wants to see a nuclear-armed North Korea."

Joseph Cirincione, director of the non-proliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the administration faces two very distinct choices. "They either play 'gotcha' " and cut off relations, he said, "or they can justifiably claim that their tough approach produced exactly the change in North Korean behavior we had been seeking."

Cirincione noted that as the United States has begun its campaign against Iraq, "North Korea has taken some surprising steps just in the last three months. They are not changing regimes but they are making change in their regime."

In Japan, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's spokeswoman, Misako Kaji, said, "Japan is gravely concerned about the U.S. announcement North Korea is developing nuclear weapons.

The parallels between North Korea and Iraq are worth noting, said Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Non-Proliferation Education Center. He pointed to the administration's repeated assertions that Iraq will not be secure until Hussein is removed from power.

"If we're serious about Iraq, as we are and should be, we need to be twice as serious as we currently are about North Korea," said Sokolski, who believes the administration should be tough on Kim. "If you've got a nuclear cheater, do you give them the benefit of the doubt and coddle him? Or do you say the burden's on you to come clean?"

Staff writer Glenn Kessler contributed to this report.
© 2002 The Washington Post Company

In 1994, Pyongyang agreed to give up the pursuit of nuclear weapons in exchange for civilian nuclear reactors financed and built by an international consortium. The apparent decision to pursue uranium-based weapons suggests that North Korea believed it could preserve and even expand its nuclear options, while revealing nothing of its intentions to the outside world, weapons experts said.

Rex Babin, Sacramento Bee, CA
Click on cartoon to enlarge

In an October 18, 2002 article in the Washington Post entitled "U.S. Followed the Aluminum Pyongyang's Effort to Buy Metal Was Tip to Plans":

Gas-centrifuge facilities, which is what the aluminum would be used in, "are not all that large, and conceivably you can build them above ground without being detected," said Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's nonproliferation project. "There's nothing unique about them from the outside. And unlike nuclear reactors, they don't have large heat signatures."

Gas-centrifuge technology is one of several methods for producing enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. A typical enrichment plant consists of thousands of fast-spinning centrifuges, which extract fissile material from natural uranium. The centrifuges are built of specialized metals with a high tolerance for heat and pressure.

Despite more than four decades of experience with advanced weapons and nuclear engineering, North Korea lacks the specialized manufacturing capability and know-how to build a gas-centrifuge facility on its own, weapons experts agreed. Many analysts pointed to Pakistan as a possible source of supplies and expertise.

"Pakistan would be a possibility because it used gas centrifuges, and its own nuclear weapons initially used enriched uranium," said Robert Einhorn, former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation and now a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"Also, North Korea and Pakistan have been known to engage in sensitive trade, including Pakistan's purchase of Nodong missiles from North Korea," Einhorn said. "U.S. officials were concerned at the time about what the quid pro quo might be."

US officials said that they believed Pakistan, China and Russia may have all assisted North Korea in developing an enriched uranium program need for building nuclear weapons. All countries flatly denied their involvement. In fact, the head of Russia's atomic energy ministry expressed doubt that North Korea was developing a nuclear weapons program at all.

However, Washington Post article on November 13 stated that the Bush administration had evidence that suggested that Pakistan assisted North Korea's covert nuclear weapons program as recently as August, much later than previously disclosed. The administration believed Pakistan continued to trade nuclear technical knowledge, designs and possibly material in exchange for missile parts up until this summer, when the administration concluded North Korea was secretly trying to construct a facility to enrich uranium for a bomb. Administration officials would not discuss the extent of the evidence, but they said it involved highly suspicious shipping trade.

The article continued, "Pakistan's involvement in North Korea's program has put the administration in an extremely delicate position. Under U.S. law, if the president determines that a country has delivered nuclear enrichment equipment, material or technology without international safeguards, the United States must suspend economic and military aid. Such sanctions were imposed against Pakistan in 1979, but last year President Bush waived them and other nuclear-related sanctions after the Pakistani government agreed to help in the fight against al Qaeda and Afghanistan's Taliban militia after the Sept. 11 attacks." Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has personally guaranteed that questionable transactions with North Korea would cease, but the U.S. officials question whether Musharraf has full control of all entities that could be doing business with North Korea.

According to the Korea Times, there was going to be a "joint" release from both the U.S.-Seoul, but from the start there was a divergence of strategies on how to approach this problem. Seoul had invested heavily in North Korea and again the "Sunshine Policy" was on the verge of being sunk. "Officially" Seoul came out "urging" Pyongyang to respect the Nuclear Accord. The Seoul government was opposed to any North Korean nuclear weapon development program and urged Pyongyang to respect all responsibilities under the 1994 Agreed Framework, Non-proliferation agreement and the declaration of non-nuclearization of Korean Peninsular. However, it stopped short of economic sanctions. It stated that this crisis should be worked out through a "dialogue." The US, Japan and South Korea had agreed in 1999 to fuse their policy towards North Korea, but both South Korea and Japan were cool to the idea of economic sanctions.

However, the Bush administration found this situation a perfect opportunity get out of the agreement which has a lot of hassles over the years. The power plant construction was delayed by about five years due to the downturn in Washington-Pyongyang relations -- not counting North Korea constantly trying to blow South Korean ships out of the water. The State Department official said that the North Korean admission nullified the deal, under which North Korea was due to get help in building two light water reactors deemed less suitable for making nuclear bombs. The U.S. stated that it no longer felt bound to send heating oil to North Korea, though the final decision rested with KEDO.

But others have found this "deal" irksome as well. South Korea has constantly tried to "renegotiate" its pledges when the deal turned out to be NOT economically advantageous. They initially thought that they would build the nuclear reactors -- to the exclusion of foreign competition with the Korea Standard reactor construction -- while the U.S. and Japan paid the oil and nuclear reactor construction bills. That's not the way it worked out as there was no free ride. American said it would only pay for the oil and the financing of the reactors had to come from elsewhere. Japan's economic doldrums make it an unstable bankroller. In addition, the European Union who also contributes to the consortium feels that it is a deep hole they are throwing money into. It stated that it would reevaluate its position on KEDO financing in light of North Korea's announcement. However, construction restarted in Aug 2002 still continues on the project. After nine years, there has been so little progress that it is not worth mentioning.

KEDO (Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization), an international, non-profit organization was established to carry out two key provisions of the Agreed Framework negotiated in 1994 by the US and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). Specifically, in exchange for the DPRK freezing and eventually dismantling its nuclear program KEDO is: a) Supplying the DPRK with two proliferation-resistant light-water reactor (LWR) units and b) Heavy fuel oil (HFO) for heating and electricity.

A KEDO official said if North Korea and the United States fail to reach an early resolution regarding the nuclear issue, the construction of two light-water reactors may be halted. The power plant construction, which had been delayed by about five years due to ups and downs in Washington-Pyongyang relations, got under way in earnest in August, when KEDO officials held a ceremony and first poured concrete into the foundation. The construction is now 24 percent completed. The 1994 deal requires that North Korea come into full compliance with its safeguard agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify its past nuclear activities before key nuclear components are delivered. IAEA has insisted that inspections of the North's nuclear facilities must start in 2003 at the latest, saying such inspections usually take three to four years. North Korea has opposed the idea, citing construction delays of the promised reactors. (See 1995: KEDO.)

No one was quite sure how to react to the news. The revelation caused diplomatic meetings amongst all the North Asia players -- Japan, South Korea and China. All recommended the resolution of this tension through a "dialogue" process. Though there were basic differences in the viewpoints between Seoul and Washington, the U.S. opted to resolve the revelation through diplomacy. However, the U.S. stated that the revelation brought all previous accords -- such as the KEDO reactors for food program -- into question. However, what made the initial news interesting was a BBC report that North Korea made this revelation because it no longer felt bound by the 1994 accord in order to gain food or economic aid.

Initially, South Korea sided with the North's version of the events at the discussions. South Korea's Unification Minister Jeong Se-Hyun questioned the accuracy of the US version of events. "It seems that something was omitted from the remarks by (North Korea's) First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-Ju concerning the (abolishment) of the Geneva agreement," he said. "It is hard to say whether what was reported by the United States was accurate or not." Some analysts in Seoul suspect that Washington might have exaggerated what Pyongyang officials said during James Kelly's trip. Yim Sung-Joon, a senior presidential secretary for foreign affairs and security, said the North's frank acknowledgement may mean it is willing to address the issue through dialogue.

Tim Menees, Pittsburgh, PA
Click on cartoon to enlarge

A 21 October article in the New York Times article stated: "North Korea desperately needs better relations with the Japan and the United States because the former has long promised to provide heavy development assistance once relations are normalized, while the latter controls many of the international financial institutions, whose cooperation is indispensable to North Korea's re-entry into the global economy." It went on, "Looking at his confessions, Mr. Kim appears to have focused on the issues most important to each of those two nations: the emotive question of the fate of its citizens for Japan, and weapons of mass destruction for the United States." In the article, Mr. Harrison, author of "Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement," said Pyongyang's position was spelled out to him by the country's representative to the United Nations. "North Korea has always wanted to pursue normalization with the United States, and however awkwardly, now they are bargaining," said Selig S. Harrison, director of the National Security Program at the Center for International Policy in Washington. "What they are saying is that they are prepared to negotiate an end to all nuclear activity and allow inspections, if we agree to two things: not to threaten them militarily and to pursue normalized relations."

North Korea took the view -- that may seem strange to Americans -- that the U.S. caused this confrontation by refusing to negotiate and blocking the construction of the KEDO nuclear plants. Perhaps there is some truth in this, but not because of American directed stoppages. The construction was supposed to be complete in 2003, but it is still six years away from completion. The South Korean's are trying to "spin-doctor" the construction aspect by saying it is now "24 percent" complete -- but "24 percent" of what? Actually, the project restarted in August 2002 from the point so the 24 percent would be the foundation and building. The South Korean newspapers fail to mention that the South Korean stoppages on construction had to do with North Korean saboteurs and spies, heated naval battles, and such miscellany. South Korea has decided not to mention any of this at this time. However, KEDO officials point out that the construction may come to a halt again soon if the crisis is not resolved by the U.S. and North Korea.

But now new questions are cropping up. How did the cash strapped North Koreans finance this project that would cost about $1 billion? The GNP party Chairman Suh Chung-won accused companies of providing the funds that were funneled into this project. He stated, "The $400 million that Hyundai paid the North in connection with the Mt. Geumgang tourism business and another $400 million the government offered the North secretly through Hyundai Merchant Marine may have been funneled into the North Korean project." Unrealistically he proposed that these projects be stopped. Kim Dae-jung and others simply disregarded this challenge as to where the funding came from.

Kirk Walters. Toledo Blade, OH
Click on cartoon to enlarge

All negotiations with North Korea started to grind to a halt as the North has refused to pledge to honor its pledges under the accord. As a result, the European Union, a member of the KEDO consortium, is now rethinking its positions. "The EU has been keen on expanding its relations with North Korea over the past two years. Of the 15 member states, only France and Ireland still have no diplomatic ties with Kim Jong-Il's regime. But after the US allegations were made public, the European bloc said it would review the diplomatic relations and humanitarian aid to the famine-stricken communist country."

Japan stated that talks on normalizing relations with North Korea would only go ahead if the North bowed to international demands to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. After the announcement the normalization talks between Japan and North Korea turned sour. The North Koreans had permitted five Japanese who were kidnapped to return to Japan as a "gesture of goodwill" -- but then extended the kidnapped Japanese stay in Japan indefinitely. This caused North Korea cry foul and to raise the prospect of resuming its missile program. A Japanese official stated, "Security problems over North Korea are not only a matter of grave international concern, but also Japan's national concern." Japan realizes that North Korea would train the nuclear weapons on Japan in the event of a crisis -- NOT South Korea -- for use as a nuclear trump card. Even a relatively small nuclear weapon could kill tens of thousands if it hits a large metropolis like Tokyo, and North Korea proved its ability to deliver such an ordnance back in 1998 by lobbing a missile over Japan.

In an attempt to find a way out, on 26 October North Korea proposed a non-aggression pact with the United States along with other conditions. The North said it was ready to seek a negotiated settlement of the crisis if Washington agreed to the non-aggression pact and two other conditions. First, Washington must recognize North Korean sovereignty and second, agree not to interfere in the country's economic development, taken as a reference to a lifting of US economic sanctions imposed on the North. Though the U.S. stated that North Korean officials made the admission after confronted with evidence of their nuclear program, North Korea denied that the US envoy produced any "evidence." Though the North did not directly confirm that it was running a nuclear weapons program, it defended its right to do so as U.S. was responsible for violating every article of the 1994 Accord. It further stated it considered the "axis of evil" comments of President Bush tantamount to a "clear declaration of war." In its self-defense, it felt it was entitled to possess not only nuclear weapon but any type of weapon more powerful than that so as to defend its sovereignty and right to existence from the ever-growing nuclear threat by the US.

In response, a joint communique from the U.S., Japan and South Korea on 27 October stated that North Korea must scrap its nuclear arms program "in a prompt and verifiable manner. "North Korea's relations with the international community now rest on North Korea's prompt and visible actions to dismantle its program to produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons." The statement gave no specific indication of what consequences North Korea would face if it refused. There was a lot of leeway in this in that South Korea's Kim Dae-jung has stated that sanctions should have not been used to resolve the situation, while U.S. officials did not rule out the use of economic or other sanctions. Seoul called for a softer stance, expressing hope the shipments of oil would continue at least during the tenure of President Kim Dae-jung, who initiated the ``Sunshine Policy’’ of comprehensive engagement with North Korea. Kim’s term expired in February 2003. South Korea wished to keep alive the "sunshine policy" gains made in recent months.

In November, the U.S. announced that it was taking the position to stop continued oil shipments to the North. However, the U.S. did support the use of dialogue to resolve the situation. A rift was developing between South Korea's desire to engage the North and U.S. opposition to dialogue with the Stalinist regime until the nuclear program was shut down.

It was reported on November 8 the U.S., South Korea and Japan officials were wrestling with how to come out with a unified stance on North Korean nuclear issue. The three allies agreed in 1999 to fuse policy towards North Korea. Japan and South Korea have been cool to the idea of economic sanctions, which the United States had yet to rule out. The US did not believe that diplomatic pressure and the threat of isolation could be enough to force Pyongyang to halt its nuclear program. Japan and South Korea thought it was sufficient. In addition, the officials of the U.S. State Department said that there was not much possibility of the U.S. Congress approve any funding for further fuel oil shipments due to the latest nuclear revelations.

The South Korea and Japan maintained that the shipments of 42,500 tons of heavy fuel oil should proceed uninterrupted. The US objected to this stance, but said the decision was up to KEDO. KEDO -- made up of the U.S., EU, Japan and South Korea -- went ahead with the delivery for November, but shipments for December have been stopped. KEDO said future shipments of heavy oil depended on North Korea’s "concrete and credible actions" to dismantle completely its enriched-uranium program. Experts said the stoppage would deal a serious blow to the impoverished communist state in which the annual shipment of 500,000 tons of fuel from KEDO accounts for up to 15 percent of its electricty generating capacity. Homes, schools and hospitals are already short of power and entire cities in the North are in total darkness at night.

KEDO also announced that the entire project was in jeopardy of being scrapped unless North Korea stopped its nuclear program. As of Nov 17, no decision had been made about quitting or postponing the project. After the announcement that the shipments had been stopped, it was announced that the KEDO decision was supported by President Kim Dae-Jung and showed that North Korea had failed to drive a wedge between Seoul and its main ally the United States. A statement from the presidential Blue House described the KEDO move as "the best step" in response to North Korea's stubborn refusal to dismantle its nuclear program.

No one was sure in November how North Korea would react. It will attempt to widen the schism between the U.S. and Seoul over this situation, but most see this ploy as ineffective since it will not change the U.S. stance which is at the heart of the problem. In the worst case scenario North Korea could respond angrily leading to the brink of war as it did in 1994. If the situation worsened, the U.S. would impose economic sanctions and the North's ongoing economic reform would receive a fatal blow. Many analysts said they believe that the North had no other options except to resolve security concerns over its weapons program. At this point in time with no supporters in Russia or China, brinksmanship will not work.

Protest against North Korea and the Sunshine Policy (Nov 02)
(From Tongil News )

In the interim, the South Korean government has attempted to go forward with all other agreements. It has agreed to establishment of a permanent reunion center near Pakdu Mountain in North Korea. The clearing of mines for the railroad link between the two countries continues -- though there was a delay when North Korea refused to deliver a list of inspectors of the de-mining operations to the U.N. forces on 13 November. The North wishes only to deal with the South directly bypassing the U.N. command which the South can not accept. South Korea continues to urge the European Community to not overact to the nuclear pronouncement -- and instead recommended investment in North Korea to assist the North's economy. South Korea, Japan, and the EU are urging the North to end this crisis through dialogue. However, the actions of KEDO to cut off its oil and possibly scrap the 1994 accord has placed the ball firmly in North Korea's court.

Neither North Korea nor the U.S. wanted to be the one who abrogated the 1994 accord. The North issued many notices blaming the north, but stopped short of threatening military action. In late November the North issued an announcement -- though not officially confirmed -- that it was converting its foreign denomination for trade from U.S. dollars to euros. Most felt this was in response to the U.S. potentially taking economic sanctions against the North. Pyongyang has said it will only resolve the issue if the United States offers a nonaggression pact. Washington has rejected any talks with Pyongyang unless it gives up the nuclear weapons program. In late November, the U.S. issued a statement that emphasized again it had no intention of invading the North -- that satisfied the North Korean demand "in principle." But an article by an Australian daily stated that the U.S. special forces were given orders from President George W. Bush to destroy freighters, likely to carry deadly weapons to North Korea, Iran, Iraq or Al-Quaeda group The order was confirmed by the U.S. Department of Defense. The special task force will focus on suspicious cargo ships headed toward the North, Iran, Iraq or to other places suspected to belong to terror groups. They will directly aim toward weapons or scientific equipment seemingly to have "double use."

Positive notes to White House written statement

The written statement released by the White House on Friday in the wake of KEDO decision to suspend oil supply to North Korea contained some positive aspects for strained ties between Pyeongyang and Washington. The declaration that came right after KEDO's suspension of oil supply to the North empathized it would not launch armed attack against the North. The measures comes in return of the North's earlier admission that it violated 1994 Agreed Framework that pledged freezing of nuclear program.

"We are united in our desire for a peaceful resolution of this situation," President George W. Bush himself made the speech while as he made clear the only real option left for the North is to "completely and visibly eliminate its nuclear weapons program."

Though he didn't hint to any immediate dialogue with the North he went on to express hopes for "different future" to "improve the lives of Korean people" nor did he rule out revising a U.S. initiative if the North comes to comply to the given terms.

The United States, although responsible for several diplomatic attacks toward the North from branding the counterpart as an "axis of evil" to hinting chances of preemptive attacks has never posed actual sanction toward the isolated regime up until now.

"The most important part of the latest statement released after close consultation with South Korea is that we have no U.S. has no intention to invade the North," said a high-level diplomatic source in Washington.

"This statement in fact, is to soothe the North," he explained, adding that the United States is gravely worried about the North's trying another extraction of its plutonium to create nuclear warhead.

Observers also note this is President Bush's third official statement to the North since its first statement in June last year and second in last September related to dispatching U.S. special envoy. While the earlier two statements went for engaging the North into dialogue this recent statement marks it clear that there's a solid reason to suspension of oil aid and what the North should do. Observers also note the prompt timing of the release of the statement that came out just after the KEDO declaration somewhat has to do with the U.S. efforts to make the North stay put while Washington remains preoccupied with Iraq. If the North does create a scene during the Iraqi attacks it would not only weaken the U.S. resolve to uproot the ruling administration there but would also create problem to channel the world's interest to the new war, watchers say.

Other experts note although the U.S. resolve not to invade the North was already made more than clear during President Bush's speech in Seoul last February, the reiteration of recent statement gives new meaning as its meets the North' latest call not to attack them through demands of nonagression pact. The North wanted assurance and the U.S. has given them one, at least in principle.

In relations South Korean government welcomed Mr. Bush's statement, interpreting it as a balanced message with consideration to Pyeongyang's own position to give up nuclear program without losing its face completely.

Kim Jin/Oh Young-hwan November 18, 2002

To increase the economic pressure on North Korea, on November 28 the U.S. announced it would stop food aid to North Korea -- at least temporarily. Though the U.S. claimed that its donations to North Korea stem from humanitarian considerations and has nothing to do with issues such as the North's nuclear weapons program, no one really believed it. The U.S., one of the North's major food donors, has provided 155,000 tons of food to the North this year, meeting its pledge. He said the halt to new donations was a result of a lack of funds to provide additional aid. In a separate issue, the U.S. Agency for International Development said North Korea has not yet responded to U.S. demands for better monitoring of food aid to prevent diversions to the military or to North Korea's elite. The United States also wants better access to food recipients to ensure that they are receiving the aid they need. The U.S. Embassy in Seoul stressed that the U.S. calls for better access are related to any additional aid above and beyond the pledged amounts. The basic donations were provided with no such strings attached, but any further aid will require U.S. monitoring.

The World Food Program, which feeds one-third of the North Korean population, called urgently for additional food aid last week to counter what it called a crisis that has already cut rations to 3 million North Koreans in the western part of the country for the last two months. The UN aid agency complained that major donors, including Japan, had delayed their shipments of promised aid. By early 2003, food rations would be ended for an additional 1.6 million people unless more help is forthcoming, the agency said. A World Food Program spokesman, Gerald Bourke, said improvements in the monitoring system to prevent food diversions are already in place.

Japan has sought to reopen the normalization talks by going through China, but the negotiations are stalled. The abductee issue is still a sore point. Japan is preparing to offer permanent resettlement of the abductees in Japan and wish their families in North Korea to join them. A former North Korean agent whose Japanese name is Kenki Aoyama, testified on various issues concerning the communist state before Japan's House of Representatives -- specifically on details of the North's abductions of Japanese citizens and the development of nuclear weapons and missile technology. Aoyama a Korean who was born in Japan left for his motherland in the North in 1960. He managed to escape to China in 1998 and sought asylum in Japan which accepted him the following year. Japan and the U.S. will hold bilateral talks in December to come to a united approach on the North Korean issue.

However, other disturbing news was brought to light about the testing that may already have taken place.

North Korea already conducted nuclear tests, says FEER

North Korea has already conducted nuclear test, reported Hong Kong's weekly magazine on Sunday. This week's edition of Eastern Economic Review revealed the actual test took place deep inside the two mine shafts o the underground facility of small city called Kusong located in the mountain north of Pyeongyang and the information was directly from the Stalinist nation. According to the article the covert site located 30 kilometers northwest of Yeongbyeon, is guarded by 2,500 solider some of whom are deployed as spy-hunting in nearby mountain in the accounts of people who witness the place with their own eyes. Yeongbyeon is where the Soviet-ear nuclear site shut down since the Agreed Framework between the North and the United States in 1994.

The news added South Korea's intelligence source knew of the North's tests as early as in late-1997 when its intelligence agent disguised as South Korean businessman acquired a top soil around the area from North Korean soldier. The soil proved to contain radioactive particles typical of residue from full-scale high explosive test using fissile material, the news said. It continued the parts needed for the tests are manufactured at factories located just south of the test site.

The news pointed out from a North Korean perspective, retaining nuclear capability may be a win-win situation in both ways quoting the words of Scott Snyder of Asia Society. "If they don't get caught they have nuclear capability. And if they do get caught they can bargain it away."

staff reporter November 18, 2002

With the latest revelations, all of its neighbors -- Russia, China, and Japan -- have come out to "urge" North Korea to cease its nuclear programs. Russia and China, issued a strong statement urging North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program and also urged the United States to "normalize relations" North Korea. The International Atomic Energy Agency has strongly urged that North Korea cease any development programs. On December 2, a USA TODAY story was released that the U.S. quietly was preparing to negotiate with North Korea.

U.S. quietly prepares to negotiate with N. Korea

By Barbara Slavin, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Despite North Korea's open breach of its promise to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, the Bush administration is quietly paving the way for negotiations that might give the reclusive country oil, food or other aid in exchange for verifiable shutdown of its bomb facilities.

Publicly, both countries have adopted hard-line positions since North Korea admitted to U.S. diplomats in October that it was building a uranium enrichment facility in defiance of a 1994 agreement with the United States. U.S. officials have refused negotiations and ordered a cutoff in oil aid. North Korea has refused any talks until the United States guarantees it won't use military force against it.

But behind the scenes, the Bush administration is preparing proposals for the complex means to verify any new North Korean promise to end its nuclear program, U.S. officials say. That is a signal that despite the bellicose rhetoric, both sides seem to be headed to the bargaining table.

"We can easily put together a regime of inspection and verification should one be needed, if they really are determined to come forward and tell us what they are doing and that they are going to stop," Secretary of State Colin Powell said in a recent interview.

Other State Department officials said verification schemes are already being prepared by the Verification and Compliance Bureau in the office of John Bolton, the undersecretary for arms control.

Powell said officials from the Department of Energy and the International Atomic Energy Agency are already monitoring a North Korean nuclear facility that had produced plutonium.

U.S. planning is based on confidence that North Korea will eventually succumb to economic pressure from its neighbors and a united international community.

On Monday, after a summit meeting in Beijing, the leaders of North Korea's old socialist allies, Russia and China, issued a strong statement urging North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program for the sake of "the destiny of the world and security in Northeast Asia." The statement also urged the United States to "normalize relations" North Korea.

If there are talks, it would be an admission by both sides that there is no other realistic option. The North is already believed to have one or two nuclear weapons, as well as a conventional army that could inflict terrible damage on South Korea and the 37,000 U.S. troops based there.

According to a recent CIA estimate, North Korea began a uranium enrichment program "about two years ago" that could produce "two or more nuclear weapons per year" by the middle of this decade.

A senior administration official says a gas centrifuge plant to enrich uranium could be ready as early as next year. The facility is being built with equipment acquired from Pakistan, Russia and other sources, but U.S. intelligence does not know where the plant — most likely underground — is located.

Meanwhile, the 1994 U.S. agreement with North Korea is on life support. The United States and a consortium that includes South Korea, Japan and the European Union allowed one more delivery of fuel oil to North Korea last month but suspended future shipments until the crisis is resolved.

Under a separate humanitarian program begun in 1995, the United States is still supplying food to North Korea. And some aspects of the 1994 agreement continue to be implemented. South Korea is still preparing the site for the two civilian nuclear reactors, and the North Koreans have not tampered with the plutonium at their declared nuclear site at Yongbyon.

"We have lots more economic levers" now, says Scott Snyder, South Korea representative of the Asia Foundation. "But it may take a little while for this to play out."

In early December, the U.S. stopped food aid to North Korea. It stated that it would only donate food with a monitoring program to ensure the food was not being diverted to military uses. North Korea refused to allow monitoring despite pleas from internation food agencies for humanitarian reasons. South Korea has continued to ship such items as cold weather underwear amd garments to the North as humanitarian aid.

North Korea decided to throw the gauntlet down in front of the U.S. and play its nuclear trump card. The nuclear trump card is aimed at Japan to bring it to the negotiating table to provide economic aid. The combination of the resumption of the North's missile program and nuclear WMD program is enough to panic even the staunchest of Japanese. Their anti-nuclear phobia makes the Japanese populace extremely susceptible to this type of blackmail. After the U.S. cut off the KEDO oil to the North over its violations of the nuclear program, the Pyongyang government has steadily ratcheted up the stakes in the confrontation, apparently in an effort to win economic concessions.

On Dec 12, the tension escalated when Pyongyang said it was reactivating a plutonium-based nuclear plant suspended under the 1994 accord after Washington cut regular fuel shipments mandated by the same pact. The decision to cut fuel shipments came after Pyongyang admitted to a US envoy in October that it had undertaken a separate nuclear program, using enriched uranium. In quick succession, North Korea unilaterally stated it would shut down the cameras and open the seals on the facilities for spent rods and planned to unilaterally withdraw from the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty.

On Dec 17, North Korea launched a two-pronged attack on the U.S. and Japan as the two allies stepped up diplomatic pressure on the North to give up its nuclear program. Japan, however, said it would continue its dialogue with North Korea which would enable it to pressure the Stalinist state to renounce its nuclear weapons drive. Tokyo has signalled it will press ahead with normalization talks with North Korea -- even though Washington refuses to enter dialogue until Pyongyang ditches its nuclear program.

Secretary of State Colin Powell reassured all, "The United States has no plans to attack North Korea, and I see no indication that North Korea, however concerned it might be, is taking any action that would suggest we are on the verge of war from them attacking south."

North Korea started to reopen a sealed plutonium reprocessing plant on 23 Dec. Experts said North Korea could produce weapons within months. The International Atomic Energy Agency said North Korean officials had disabled surveillance cameras and broken through seals barring entry to a building housing the equipment needed to turn spent fuel rods from a nearby reactor into weapons-grade material. North Korean officials disabled cameras and broke seals around a pool holding 8,000 of the spent fuel rods at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, 55 miles north of Pyongyang. Prior to this the North Koreans began dismantling monitoring equipment at the reactor itself.

The Bush administration emphasized that it would continue to deal with the issue diplomatically. But even as he endorsed diplomacy as the right course for now, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld warned North Korea not to assume that the United States was incapable of confronting it militarily, even as Washington prepares for possible war with Iraq. Rumsfield on Dec 22 stated that "We are capable of fighting two major regional foreign conflicts" and added, "We are capable of winning decisively in one and swiftly defeating in the ... other. Let there be no doubt about it.". Some could argue that this flies in the face of the U.S. 2001 admittal that U.S. forces could win on one front only and the second front would be a holding action. (See Win on One Front.)

New bipartisan pressure from Congress has started to appear for the White House to rethink its policy of not negotiating until North Korea drops its nuclear program. The administration refused and stated that it would stick to its demand that North Korea drop its nuclear program as a condition for negotiations.

Secretary of State Powell continued the American efforts to maintain a united international front on the Korean issue. Speaking with his counterparts in Russia, France, Britain, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia to emphasize the need for "a peaceful resolution." However, Russia continued to refuse to put pressure on the North saying it was counter-productive.

On Dec 19 the Korean populace elected Roh Moon-Hyun as its new President. He is pledged to engagement with the North, and is operating in an atmosphere of notably strong anti-American sentiment. Korea has continued with its "sunshine policies" in opening the corridor between the Koreas and starting work on the Kaesong Special Economic Zone in December. By doing this, Kim Dae-Jung has caused a rift in the tri-nation "unified policy strategy" to handle the North. Even now, Japanese diplomats have been privately concerned that isolating North Korea would backfire. Russian leaders have been openly critical of the Bush administration's handling of the nuclear problem stating that it was to blame for the escalating tensions.

U.S. Gets Warning From North Korea

By HOWARD W. FRENCH

SEOUL, South Korea, Dec. 24 — North Korea warned today of an "uncontrollable catastrophe" unless the United States agrees to a negotiated solution to a tense standoff over its nuclear energy and weapons programs. The statement, made amid mounting tensions with the United States, came as a stiff pre-emptive rebuff to a conciliation-minded newly elected president in South Korea, and a warning to other countries that their efforts to mediate the crisis will be futile.

"There is no need for any third party to meddle in the nuclear issue on the peninsula," said North Korea's ruling-party newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun. Referring to the North Korean government by its Korean initials, the paper said: "The issue should be settled between the DPRK and the U.S., the parties responsible for it. If the U.S. persistently tries to internationalize the pending issue between the DPRK and the U.S. in a bid to flee from its responsibility, it will push the situation to an uncontrollable catastrophe."

The North Korean defense minister, Kim Il Chol, went further, warning of "merciless punishment" to the United States if it pursued a confrontational approach to the emerging nuclear crisis.

"The U.S. hawks are arrogant enough to groundlessly claim that North Korea has pushed ahead with a `nuclear program,' bringing its hostile policy toward the DPRK to an extremely dangerous phase," the state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted Mr. Kim as saying.

Some analysts here saw the defense minister's statement as a defiant response to comments by his American counterpart, Donald H. Rumsfeld, who said on Monday that the United States had enough military power to prevail over North Korea even if such a conflict occurred during a war with Iraq.

The North's incendiary comments came as Pyongyang accelerated its takeover of nuclear fuel and reactors placed under international surveillance under a 1994 agreement with the United States. That pact, known as the Agreed Framework, was forged after a standoff remarkably similar to the current one.

Today, South Korean officials said North Korea had begun taking steps to reactivate a five-megawatt nuclear reactor that had been mothballed under the agreement. North Korea completed the removal of the last International Atomic Energy Agency seals and disabling surveillance cameras at a fuel fabrication plant in Yongbyon, South Korean officials said on Tuesday. The facility is known technically as a "research reactor," but Western arms control experts say its true purpose is to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.

"There are varying estimates on how long it would take them to reprocess the spent fuel, but they probably have plans to do it a lot faster than outsiders imagine — and will do so if their equipment works," said an American official who has studied North Korea's nuclear programs for years.

"Here are a few of the ugly signposts we might whiz past: asking the inspectors to leave, starting up the reprocessing line, finalizing their withdrawal from the Nonproliferation Treaty and declaring themselves a nuclear power with a `Korean bomb' intended to protect the whole of the Korean people by keeping the Americans from starting a war."

Reflecting the sharp increase in distrust between the United States and South Korea amid a series of major demonstrations against the presence of 37,000 American troops in the country, the official added, "This will cause some secret shivers of pride amongst some in the South."

Both South Korea's outgoing president, Kim Dae Jung, and the man who will succeed him in February, Roh Moo Hyun, spent most of the day struggling to contain the crisis, which threatens to nullify the engagement policies they embrace. "South Korea, the United States, Japan, China, Russia and the European Union are all strongly calling on North Korea to abandon the nuclear program, but the North is not listening now," Mr. Kim said during a cabinet meeting.

Amid concerns over tensions between Washington and Seoul, Mr. Kim appeared to draw closer to the American position on the North, saying there could be no major cooperation between the two countries unless Pyongyang agreed to international controls on its weapons of mass destruction. "We can never join hands in the development of nuclear weapons, missiles and other weapons," Mr. Kim said.

The new president, Mr. Roh, meanwhile, spent much of the day meeting with ambassadors of countries that have been involved in the region's crisis. "The president-elect requested cooperation from those concerned countries to help resolve the North's nuclear issue peacefully," said Mr. Roh's spokesman, Lee Nak Hyun.

Mr. Roh also spoke by telephone to the Japanese prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders "agreed to continue close cooperation among Japan, the United States and South Korea to bring about a peaceful solution to nuclear and other security issues regarding North Korea," a ministry statement said.

In Washington, the State Department said it was following developments closely. "Again, we urge North Korea not to restart any of its frozen nuclear facilities," said Tara Rigler, a department spokeswoman. Ms. Rigler said the State Department's stance was unchanged since Monday, when the department's spokesman, Philip Reeker, said that there could be no negotiations while North Korea is pursuing its nuclear program, and that the United States "will not give in to blackmail." President Bush was said to be monitoring developments from the presidential retreat at Camp David, Md., where he is spending the Christmas holiday with his family.

Ms. Rigler reiterated the administration's position that the spent fuel rods are "of particular concern because they could be processed to recover plutonium for nuclear weapons."

"They have no relevance for the generation of electricity," she said. Recently, China, which has been North Korea's closest ally since the two countries fought the United States during the Korean War from 1950 to 1953, also expressed concern over the reported pursuit of nuclear weapons. Today, Beijing urged Washington and Pyongyang to negotiate a solution of the crisis that would leave the Korean peninsula free from nuclear weapons.

"We hope relevant sides can proceed in the overall interest of safeguarding peace and stability on the peninsula and reach a resolution to the issue through dialogue," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

(See North Korean Strategy: The USFK View for the USFK strategy and positions in Korea.)

North Korea seeks Military Aid from Russia: Now that the North Koreans are on-the-ropes economically, no one wants to extend them credit. Eight years ago, their oldest friend China demanded all trade in hard currency -- no more barter trade. This problem is not getting critical as a nation with one of the largest standing armies can no longer maintain their aircraft and other military equipment -- simply because they have no cash. The following article highlights this North Korean military hardware problem:

North Korean Air Force looks to Moscow

By David Isenberg

In late August Russian and North Korean experts held talks that could lead to a boost in Russian arms sales to Pyongyang. While North Korea cannot afford to buy large numbers of modern weapons systems it does need to update its obsolete equipment. This is good news for Russia, because North Korean weapons are largely of Soviet origin. North Korea produces no aircraft itself, although it does produce some spare parts for its aircraft.

As Asia Times Online reported (North Korean, Russian ties firmly on track, August 27), currently Russian arms sales to North Korea are estimated at about US$10 million a year, presumably a minimum level to supply the North Korean army with most needed spare parts. North Korea reportedly sought some $100 million of Russian arms supplies per annum, but Moscow has been reluctant to extend new loans to cash-strapped Pyongyang.

Russian specialists say the North Korean Air Force is most in need of updating, according to a report by Agence France Presse. It has 500 aircraft but only 30 MiG-29 fighters and 35 Su-25 fighters can be classed as being up to date. More than half of the air force is grounded and needs repair and modernization.

About two-thirds of the North Korean Air Force is older-generation Soviet- or Chinese-made designs incorporating 1950s and 1960s technology, with rudimentary avionics and limited weapons systems capability. Older fighter aircraft include 160 MiG-21/Fishbeds, 20 Su-7/Fitters, 160 MiG-19/Farmers, 120 MiG-17/Frescos, and 190 MiG-15/Fagots. Most of these aircraft are daylight, clear-weather-capable only, and carry limited weapon loads. Three regiments totaling 80 medium-range Il-28/BEAGLEs are the only bombers in the air force inventory.

In the mid-to-late 1980s, the Soviet Union supplied a variety of a limited number of more modern all-weather air-defense and ground-attack aircraft. In 1985, North Korea acquired 45 MiG-23/Floggers, with increased range and payload over other older, less capable North Korean fighters. This aircraft can carry the older AA-2/Atoll and the more sophisticated AA-7/Apex air-to-air missiles in an air-intercept role. It can also be armed with general-purpose bombs and rockets for ground-attack missions.

In 1985, North Korea also acquired 15 Soviet MiG-29/Fulcrum fighters. The MiG-29 carries the AA-10/Alamo beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile. These Fulcrums provide Pyongyang with a limited but much improved air-defense capability.

In the late 1980s, the air force improved its ground-attack capabilities when it acquired 35 Su-25/Frogfoot aircraft from the Soviet Union. All-weather-capable and well armored, the Frogfoot has a combat radius of 300 nautical miles and carries up to 5,000 kilograms of bombs and rockets.

While Russia provides North Korea with spare parts for its Soviet-built fighter jets and armor, it has no intention of giving it any offensive weapons, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said on August 26. "We are supplying some equipment that cannot be called modern, let alone offensive, to North Korea." He said Russia is supplying North Korea with defense systems and spare parts for tanks and fighter planes.

In recent years, Russia, unlike other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries - Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan - has delivered practically no weapons to the Northern part of the Korean Peninsula. According to information in the United Nations Register, over the past 10 years Russia has sold about 260 "Igla-1" surface-to-air complexes to North Korea, though it also gave Pyongyang a license to manufacture them, as well as several missiles for combat cutters.

Meanwhile, Russia has delivered to South Korea 10 Mi-17 helicopters, 80 BMP-3 combat vehicles, 20 BTR-80 armored transporters, and 80 T-80U tanks. Rosoboroneksport, Russia’s main arms-trading company, is conducting negotiations on the sale to Seoul of S-300PMU and S-300V surface-to-air missile systems, as well as Ka-50 helicopters - the "Chernaya Akula" ("Black Shark").

Yet North Korean leader Kim Jong-il visited Russia in late August for the second consecutive summer. He brought with him members of his State Defense Council, a secretary of the Central Committee of the Labor Party of Korea, government ministers and other officials. Last year he traveled 13,000 kilometers from the North Korean capital to Moscow and back along the Trans-Siberian railroad.

During his trip he visited Komsomolsk-on-Amur, where he took in an aviation production association of the Sukhoi Corp and a shipyard. Reportedly he spent two-and-a-half hours on the Sukhoi plant shop floors. He watched the process of manufacturing an Su-27 jet fighter and a super-heavy press that die-stamped a variety of aircraft parts in his presence.

Sukhoi Corp director-general Mikhail Pogosyan said the North Korean government delegation had shown clear interest in the achievements of the Russian aviation industry.

Earlier, ahead of the visit, Pogosyan had said the North Korean leader and delegation would be familiarized with the Su-30MKK fighter planes manufactured for China, the upgraded Su-30 planes for service with the Russian Air Force and the program of development and production of a new multi-mission plane, the Su-80, and two amphibian planes, the Be-20 and the Be-103.

(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

(See North Korean Strategy: The USFK View for the USFK strategy and positions in Korea.)

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